Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „Index investments“

Abstract The level of sensitivity of every investment option to a market index is crucial to investors. Sensitivity analysis of individual or a set of returns on investments to market return index predicts the reaction of the investment(s) to changes in the market index; informs investors of prospective performance of different investments types; as well as assists the investors in making appropriate decisions on investment selections. This paper assessed how sensitive indirect real estate investments in Nigeria were to market index. The three companies whose asset returns were considered in this study were real estate investment trusts listed in the Nigerian Stock Exchange. The data used in this study were sourced from annual reports of the listed companies, and reports of the Nigerian Stock Exchange. The beta coefficients were used to determine the sensitivity of the selected stocks to market return index. The study found a very low and insignificant beta coefficient among various real estate investments and market return index. Hence, there is no relationship between the market return index and the returns on the Real Estate Investment Trusts listed in the Nigerian Stock Exchange.

In the last decades of the 20th century, various classes of alternative investments have become increasingly popular among investors. During this time, art as a form of alternative investment attracted attention not only from potential buyers but also from academic scholars. Unfortunately, only a few of the newly published papers contained any quantitative analysis with regard to art’s investment performance. Besides, even a smaller amount of research was devoted to the analysis of Russian art markets. Therefore, the purpose of this work is to evaluate the efficiency of investments in the artworks of contemporary Russian painters and to compare the effectiveness of these investments with the effectiveness of investments in stock, bond and real estate markets in Russia and the USA. For this research, we first conduct a hedonic regression analysis on the data available for 1950-2019 time period. After that, we build a hedonic price index for the canvases of contemporary Russian artists. According to the results, the trend of this index reiterates largely the price behavior for world contemporary art market. However, the results of this study indicate that investments in contemporary Russian art do not outperform investments in instruments of Russian and American capital and real estate markets. These results were derived by applying the CAPM model which demonstrated that Russian art as a form of alternative investment is not advisable for the purposes of diversification of investment portfolios. Based on these findings, contemporary Russian art in general can be considered an unattractive instrument for Russian and foreign investors.

This article analyses wine as an alternative investment tool and its relevance for investment portfolio diversification. Advantages and disadvantages of alternatives, benefits and weakness and peculiarities of investing in wine are systemised. In addition, the article looks at statistical data analysis of fine wine market and compares wine with other investment tools. The examination is based on three investment instruments: US equities (using SandP 500 index), bonds (using US 20-Year treasury constant maturity rate/DGS20) and wine (based on Fine Wine Investable index) using 1993–2012 (end of year) data. The investment portfolios made with two and three above-mentioned investment tools basing on H. Markowitz’s investment portfolio theory and effective curves are presented. It was found that return on investments only from equities and bonds or wine and one of these traditional instruments are signally less than from the investment mix of all three tools. Furthermore, portfolios made only from equities and bonds provide the lowest return compared to others. Choosing from two investments portfolios, results of bond/wine portfolios propose higher return with the same risk level compared to equities/wine portfolio. Consequently, despite some slowdown of wine index during financial crises, wine relevance for portfolio diversification in post crises period was proved.

As real estate, residential property comprises not only the value of utilization, but also the value of investment, which is somewhat different from that of securities such as stocks and bonds. In this paper, the investment value of newly‐built residences and stocks are compared and analyzed theoretically and empirically. Firstly, the paper summarizes the diversity of costs, risks, and benefits of these two investments. Secondly, by quoting the quarterly price/rent indices on the housing market and that at the stock exchange in Shanghai, the paper explores the variances of these two investments with respect to their risk‐return characteristics from 1993 to 2003. Thirdly, the paper discusses the correlations between residential property price/rent index, property/general stock price index, and Consumer Price Index (CPI). Finally, by utilizing the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), the systematic and the unsystematic risks of these investments are segregated and compared with each other, based on a series of assumptions. The result suggests, on a quarterly basis, that residential property investment produces a higher risk‐adjusted return than that of general stock and property stock investment. Because of a weak/negative correlation between residential property and stock returns, residential property is an ideal candidate to be included into the stock investment portfolio. Moreover, residential property and property stock can be used as effective hedges against inflation.

The mechanisms for calculating the effectiveness of innovative investments are complex, that is, they are estimated through a system of indicators. From this point of view, we believe that the inclusion in the mechanism of evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects of commodity product index and its harmonious "integration" into the system of financial and economic indicators can be one of the directions for the further development of evaluation methods of investment efficiency in innovative projects. Keywords: investments, innovations, efficiency, products, costs, profits, taxes.

This study aims to analyze the effect of Number of Working People (Employment), Economic Growth Rate (EGR), and Investment on Human Development Index (HDI) in Indonesia, partially and simultaneously. This study used investments consisting of Domestic Investment (DI) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). It used the method of analysis of panel data regression analysis with the data from thirty-three provinces in Indonesia from 2006 to 2013. The results indicate that the employment variables have positive and significant impact to HDI in Indonesia. It shows that EGR does not affect HDI in Indonesia. However, Domestic and foreign direct investments partially have positive and significant effect on HDI in Indonesia. Simultaneously, the variables employment, EGR, domestic and foreign direct investments have a significant effect on the HDI in Indonesia.

Abstract In this paper the authors address the issue of investments made by family businesses. Their study attempted to verify the level of investments made by Polish family businesses in comparison with the level of investments made by Polish non-family businesses. The study focused on the analysis of investment flows of Polish listed companies included in the WIG index for the years 2006-2018. A total of 233 companies were analyzed, including 177 non-family businesses and 56 family businesses. The results corroborated the argument that Polish listed non-family businesses invest much more money than family businesses. It was also observed that only a small percentage of companies in both groups invest their finances in research and development.

The article reasons that foreign direct investments play a crucial role in the economy of every world country, since they ensure the effective functioning of economy and economic growth. It is found that the volume of foreign direct investments into the economy of a certain country depends on the investment climate, whose main indicator is the position of countries in international investment ratings that allows us to evaluate the investment climate, possible investment risks and the degree of investment safety. The subject of the study is the investment climate in Ukraine and its position in the main international investment ratings. The research methods used in the study include theoretical generalization, comparison, abstraction, analysis and synthesis. The paper presents a list of the main international investment ratings that should be taken into account by potential investors while analyzing the investment climate and investment image of the country and considering the practicality of investing into the economy. The current position and dynamics of Ukraine’s rankings in these ratings are analyzed: according to Global Competitiveness index – 81st position among 137 countries; according to index of Economic Freedom – 150th position among 180 countries; according to Ease of Doing Business index – 76th position among 190 countries; according to Investment Attractiveness index – 134th out of 174 countries. Based on the analysis of Ukraine’s position in the main international investment ratings, it is concluded that the investment climate in Ukraine is not favorable; therefore, Ukraine needs to take measures to improve its investment climate and its positions in these ratings in order to attract foreign investment to the required extent.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is strongly committed to stimulating savings culture in the local community by providing financial literacy in financial planning, investments, and budgeting. Inculcating the savings and investment behavior among the people will help materialize one of the elements of Saudi Vision 2030. Tadawul, being the most liquid stock market in the Middle East and North Africa, offers investors the ability to grow their capital with confidence through facilitating trading in different securities such as equities, debt instruments, and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). There is a great scope for investors to invest in the companies listed in Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) due to its strong economic fundamentals. The present study aims to apply the CAPM in Tadawul listed stocks, which will help in understanding the systematic and unsystematic risk associated with stocks, understanding their actual and theoretical return on stocks. The methodology adopted is the analysis of secondary data for all listed stocks in Tadawul using the Bloomberg terminal. The financial valuation includes elements like beta, alpha, correlation and standard deviation, expected return and actual return. The practical value obtained from the study will help investors go for undervalued stocks with lower beta, higher expected annual return, and lower systematic risks. Thus, the result shows the predicting power in KSA market and the scope for long-term investments by the investors to boost their savings and investment behavior and materialize one element of Vision 2030. AcknowledgmentThis research was funded by the Deanship of Scientific Research at Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University through the Fast-Track Research Funding Program.

Stock investment is the planting of money in a securities that indicates the ownership of a company in order to provide benefits in the future. In obtaining optimal results from stock investments, investors are expected to create a series of portfolios. The portfolio will help investors in allocating some funds in different types of investments in order to achieve optimal profitability. For selection of optimal stocks representing LQ-45 Index, used 2 methods of Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) method and Single Index Model (SIM) method. In MAD method, 5 best stocks are BBCA with weight 23%, INDF 8%, KLBF 23%, TLKM 23%, and UNVR 23%. While the SIM method of candidate portfolio obtained is AKRA with weight 15,459%, BBCA 48,193%, BBNI 5,028%,KLBF 0,258% and TLKM 31,062%. Portfolio performance meter is used by sharpe ratio. The value of sharpe ratio is 0,36754 for optimal portfolio using MAD method and 0,40782 for optimal portfolio using SIM method, this means that optimal portfolio using SIM method has better performance than MAD. Keywords: Investment, Portfolio, Index LQ-45, Mean Absolute Deviation, Single Index Model, Sharpe Ratio

Extensive empirical evidence shows that passively managed index-tracking mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) outperform actively managed portfolios. On the other hand, there are abundant findings that stocks admitted to an index outperform those deleted from the index. This study tests an issue that has been largely ignored in academic studies but is highly related to the above two seemingly disparate areas of researches. The paper examines the long-term performance of non-index individual stocks and stock portfolios relative to the index. The study proposes that the inclusion and maintenance criteria for index component stocks are long-term performance indicators. Therefore, an index can be regarded as a passively managed and highly diversified portfolio of expected outperformers. Using a complete set of H-shares listed on HKEx for the period 2001 to 2017, the study finds that 44.25% (55.75%) of individual stocks have positive alphas (negative alphas) relative to the index. The average alpha for the family of all non-index stock is negative but statistically insignificant, i.e., 77 positive alphas and 97 negative alphas. Most alphas are statistically insignificant, but only 5 are positive, and 2 are negative at 5% significance level. From the risk and return perspective, the index dominates two-third of the non-index H-shares. Regression analyses show that H-index outperforms non-index H-shares in general and the market capitalization and turnover ratio play an important role in determining the long-term performance of H-shares, which are the major factors for the admission and maintenance criteria of H-index. The findings strongly support our conjecture that the index admission and maintenance criteria are the quality assurance of individual constituent stocks of an index. The paper provides incremental evidence on the widely documented result that index trackers outperform actively managed portfolios. Nevertheless, the study extends the recent literature on the long-term performance of stocks that are admitted to (or excluded from) an index. The findings of the study have significant implications for securities markets participants, including index providers and ETF issuers

In this essay we have been studying the development of investment companies that is traded at Mid Cap and Large Cap at the Stockholm stock market. We took out five investment companies at random from the mentioned markets above. We used these companies as benchmarking for the study. To measure the development we looked at the change in the stock price and the total yield over the given time period, we then compared these to three random portfolios of 8 stocks each and the index called Six-Return index. All the companies in the random portfolios have another type of owner structure and lack Investment Company as a big owner. Those companies have a more divided ownership. In the essay we also look at the yield with consideration to the risk that is taken in the given investment in forms of Sharpe ratio and standard deviation for each portfolio. To get some extra insight we have interviewed Investor AB and Investment AB Latour. Both companies are leading investment companies in Sweden. The time period for the essay is 10 years and is stretching from 2004-01-01 until 2014-01-01. The results from the paper are that investment companies in general had a higher yield then the index and portfolios that was used as comparison. The results for the investment companies are better in terms of change in stock price and in yield but also with the consideration of the risk. The explanation of the results lies in several variables where the active ownership of the investment companies is the major part of the explanation and net asset discount together with the high dividend is another part. With these result investment companies is supposedly a very good investment for t hose that can’t beat the market, which would mean a great deal of all investors.
I denna uppsats studeras utvecklingen hos investmentbolag som handlas via Stockholmsbörsen på Mid Cap och Large Cap. Fem investmentbolag slumpades fram ifrån dessa listor och har sedan använts som jämförelsebolag. För att mäta deras utveckling har vi studerat kursförändringen samt totalavkastningen och jämfört dessa med slumpmässiga portföljer samt SIX Return index. De slumpmässiga portföljerna består av bolag utan något investmentbolag som större huvudägare. Detta resulterar i att de flesta bolagen i slumpportföljerna har ett mer splittrat ägande. I uppsatsen undersöker vi även avkastningen med hänsyn till risk i form av Sharpekvoter och standardavvikelse för varje portfölj. För att få en extra insyn i investmentbolagen har vi intervjuat Investor AB samt Investment AB Latour som är två ledande investmentbolag i Sverige. Studien tittar på en tidsperiod om 10 år mellan 2004-01-01 och 2014- 01-01. Det resultat som framkommit under studien är att investmentbolagen generellt sett har avkastat bättre än sina finansiella jämförelseobjekt. Detta med avseende på kursförändring och totalavkastning men även med hänsyn till risk. Förklaringen till detta ligger i ett antal variabler där investmentbolagens aktiva ägande är den största orsaken och substansrabatten i kombination med hög utdelning är ytterligare en orsak. Detta innebär att en portfölj med investmentbolag är en väldigt bra sparform överlag men framförallt för den som vill spara i aktier men saknar förkunskaper.

This article comments the most important aspects of the tax treatment applicable to investments of mining and oil and gas industry. The document highlights the relevant tax topics of the general tax legislation(Income Tax Law) and the special legislation of both industries (General Mining Law and Hydrocarbons Organic Law).
Este artículo comenta los aspectos más relevantes del tratamiento tributario de las inversiones de la industria minera y de hidrocarburos, resaltando los puntos principales de la legislación tributaria general (Ley del Impuesto a la Renta) y sectorial (Ley General de Minería y Ley Orgánica de Hidrocarburos).

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2004.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The two investment strategies, active and passive (index) investing, were evaluated by comparing the average performance of actively managed funds in the general equity category of the South African unit trust sector with its benchmark, the ALSI index. Various comparative methodologies were followed in the analysis and covered the period 1988-2003. When the upfront costs applicable to the active funds were excluded it was found that active funds on average outperformed the index benchmark. However, when including these costs the index outperformed the average of active fund returns. Similarly, on a risk-adjusted basis the index benchmark fared better than the average of actively managed funds. Index investing, despite its superior performance on average, would not have been a low risk strategy and investors would have experienced volatile returns. Over time index investing and active management repeatedly replaced one another as the dominant investment strategy. A fundamentalist approach about any one of the strategies is not prudent and it is argued that an integration approach of both strategies would have yielded the highest reward per unit risk, based on past experience. When following a strategy of combining both strategies in various combinations over different investment periods, it was found that the highest reward to risk ratio was attained by increasing index investing relative to active investing with an increase in the investment horizon. Simply put, the longer one’s investment term, the more index investing should be followed. Hereby it can be argued that over the long run it is difficult for active management to consistently beat the market. Therefore, investment strategies should be aligned with one’s faith in the efficiencies of markets over time and not be overly influenced by short-term performance records of active managers.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die twee verskillende beleggingsbenaderings, naamlik aktiewe en passiewe (indeks) beleggingsbestuur, is beoordeel deur die gemiddelde opbrengste van die aktief-bestuurde fondse in die algemene aandeelkategorie van die Suid-Afrikaanse effektetrustbedryf met hul beleggingsmaatstaf, die ALSI indeks, te vergelyk. Verskillende vergelykende metodes is in die ontleding gebruik wat die oorsigtydperk 1988-2003 gedek het. Indien aanvangskoste by die aktief-bestuurde fondse buite rekening gelaat word, het hul gemiddelde opbrengs oor die algemeen die opbrengste van die indeks oorskry. Wanneer dié koste wel in ag geneem word, het die indeks egter die gemiddeld van die aktief-bestuurde fondse geklop. Soortgelyk, het die indeks beter as die gemiddelde van die risiko-aangepaste opbrengste van die aktief-bestuurde fondse vertoon. ‘n Indeksbenadering sou ten spyte van sy beter opbrengste oor die algemeen nie ‘n lae risiko strategie verteenwoordig nie en beleggers sou wisselvallige opbrengste ondervind het. ‘n Indeksbenadering en aktiewe bestuur het mekaar oor die verloop van tyd herhaaldelik afgewissel as die dominante beleggingstrategie. ‘n Eensydige benadering ten opsigte van enige van die strategieё sal nie deug nie en dit word eerder voorgehou dat ‘n integrasie van beide strategieё in die verlede die hoogste opbrengs per risiko-eenheid sou opgelewer het. Deur verskillende kombinasie-moontlikhede oor verskillende beleggingsperiodes te toets, is bevind dat die hoogste opbrengs per risikovlak verkry word deur die indeksbenadering te verhoog met ‘n toename in die beleggingshorison. Eenvoudig gestel, hoe langer die beleggingstermyn, hoe meer passiewe bestuur moet in die beleggingsportefeulje gevolg word. Hierdeur kan aangevoer word dat aktiewe bestuur oor die langer termyn moeilik die mark gaan uitpresteer. Indien ‘n belegger in die langtermyn doeltreffendheid van die mark glo, behoort die beleggingstrategie dienooreenkomstig daarby aangepas te word en nie volgens die korttermyn prestasies van aktiewe bestuurders nie.

The general focus of my dissertation, which consists of two essays, is on how changes in the financial and economic environment surrounding a firm affect managerial incentives and firm policies regarding investment in physical capital, innovation, equity offerings, and repurchases. The first essay in my dissertation examines how product market competition affects firms' investment decisions. While competition among firms benefits consumers via lower prices, greater product variety, higher product quality, and greater innovation, recent studies provide evidence that competition has been declining in the U.S. economy over the past decade. The evidence shows that American firms' profits are at near-record levels relative to GDP and are persistent. Industries have become more concentrated as a result of mergers and acquisitions, and barriers to entry have risen and the rate of new entry has been declining for decades. Taking these findings at face value, we examine empirically whether companies feel less compelled to invest in physical capital and in research and development because they face fewer threats from rival firms. Using both traditional proxies and recently developed text-based measures of industry concentration, we show that firms operating in competitive industries invest significantly more in both physical capital and research and development relative to their peers in concentrated industries. We also report that the propensity to invest less by managers of monopolistic firms is partially mitigated by superior corporate governance that reduces the agency problem, and by certain product market characteristics such as low pricing power and low product differentiation/entry barriers. However, after accounting for all these mitigating factors, the negative association between industry concentration and investment persists. Our results are robust to including various control variables and exclusion of firms from industries that face significant competition from imports. The results are also robust to controlling for endogeneity caused by missing time-invariant and time-varying industry level factors that could potentially be related to both the level of concentration and investments. Overall, our results are consistent with the notion that firms in competitive industries have a greater incentive to invest and innovate to survive and thrive in a competitive environment relative to the managers of the firms in more concentrated industries whose incentive to invest and innovate is to maintain their monopoly rents. Our findings have obvious policy implications in that investment and hence economic growth is being adversely affected in the current era of increasing industry concentration and declining competition. The second essay in my dissertation investigates whether information contained in equity issues and buybacks is fully incorporated into prices such that the market reaction to subsequent earnings announcements is unrelated to those corporate actions. Korajczyk at al. (1991) argue that firms prefer to issue equity when the market is most informed about the quality of the firm to prevent adverse selection costs associated with new equity issues. This implies that equity issues tend to follow credible information releases contained in earnings announcements. However, analyzing a sample of 19,466 SEO pricing dates between 1970 and 2015 and 15,106 buyback announcements between 1994 and 2015 shows that a considerable number of equity offerings and repurchase announcements take place before the announcement of earnings. About 28% of buybacks and 32% of SEO pricings are made in the three weeks prior to an earnings announcement. Given these statistics, we examine whether these corporate actions provide information about upcoming earnings announcements (earnings predictability) to the extent that new information has not been fully incorporated into prices by market participants. We find evidence of earnings predictability: the market reaction to earnings following buyback announcements is higher by 5.1% than the reaction to earnings following equity issues over the (-1,+30) window when four-factor abnormal returns are used; the difference is 2.2% when unadjusted returns are considered. The results are robust to several alternate sample construction methodologies. There are at least two puzzling effects of earnings predictability that are difficult to reconcile with the market efficiency hypothesis. First, there is an incomplete adjustment to SEO pricings and buyback announcements that results in residual market reaction to earnings announcements. Second, prices continue to drift after earnings announcements: upward for buybacks and downward for SEO pricings. Unlike post-earnings announcement drift, the drift documented here does not depend on the market reaction to earnings announcement. We test several reasons for this anomalous behavior including prior returns, price, size of buyback or SEO, analyst forecast errors, and bid-ask spread. We find that information asymmetry proxies partially explain the persistence of earnings predictability following SEO pricings and buyback announcements.
Ph. D.

Modern society is faced with the complex and intractable challenge of global warming, along with other environmental issues that could potentially alter our way of life if not managed properly. Is it possible that financial markets and equity investors could have a huge part to play in the transformation towards a greener and more sustainable world? Previous studies about investment strategies regarding sustainability have for the most part been centered around possibly less objective ESG-scores or around carbon and GHG-emissions only, with little or no consideration for water usage and waste management. This thesis aims to amend to the previous work on carbon reducing strategies and ESG-investing with the addition of water usage and waste management, especically using raw data of these measures instead of ESG-ratings. Index replicating portfolios have become more and more popular as it proves harder and harder to beat the index, offering good returns along with cheap and uncomplicated portfolio construction and management. In a trending market, the fear of missing out and the demand for market return can make an index replicating strategy a way for investors to have market exposure but still remain diversied and without confusion about which horses to bet on. This thesis studies the relationship between tracking-error and the increase of sustainability in a portfolio through reduction of the intensity of carbon emissions, water usages and poor waste management. To be able to make a fair comparison, these measures are normalized by dividing each measure by the reported annual revenue. These three obtained intensities are then implemented individually, as well as all together into index replicating portfolios in order to study the effect from decreasing them. First and foremost we study the effect on the tracking-error, but also the effects on returns and volatility. We also study the effect on liquidity and turnover in the portfolios to show that it is possible to implement extensive sustainability increasing methods into an index replication equity portfolio. We follow the UCITS-directory to avoid overweightin specic companies and only allow the portfolios to overweight a sector with maximum 2%, in order to avoid an unwanted exposure to sectors with naturally lower intensities. The portfolios are obtained by using a multi-factor risk model to predict the expected statistical behaviour in relation to the chosen factors. Followed by applying Markowitz Modern Portfolio Theory through a convex optimization problem with the objective function to minimize tracking-error. All displayed portfolios had stable and convex optimization and were compliant with the UCITS-directory. We limited our study to only North American stocks and chose the index "MCSI NA" to replicate. Only stocks that were a part of the index were allowed to invest in and we did not allow negative weights for any stocks. The portfolios were constructed and backtested for the period 2014-12-01 until 2019-03-01 with rebalancing quarterly at the same points in time that the index is rebalanced by MCSI. We found that it was possible to implement extensive sustainability considerations into the portfolios and still keep a high correlation with the index whilst keeping low tracking-errors. We believe that most index replicating investors should be able to implement reductions of above mentioned intensities of about 40-60% without compromising tracking-errors,returns and volatility too much. We found evidence that during this time and in this market our low-intensities portfolios would have overperformed the index. We also found that returns increased and volatility decreased as we increased the reduction of each individual measure and all three collectively. Reducing carbon intensity seemed to drive positive returns and lower volatility the most, but we also observed apositive effect from reduction of all intensities. Our belief before conducting this study was that sustainability should have a negative effect on returns due to the limitation of the feasible area of investing. This motivated us to build portfolios with intent to makeup for these lesser returns and hopefully "beat the index". This failed in almost all cases and the only way we were able to beat the index were through implementing sustainability in our portfolios.

During the 90s, the Peruvian government implemented a series of economic and tax to promote investment in the country. This article, after almost two decades and with the assumption of the changes that have arisen, will make a brief review of the background to the enactment of Law No. 30230 with regard to new investments not provided for in the Legal Stability Contracts. From ment, will show how the Law N ° 30230 institutionalizes a misinterpretation of the rules governing legal stability contracts. Then, we will discuss the reasons why the current regulation is not an appropriate tool to promote investment.Finally, we introduce the synthesis of this article through the conclusions.
Durante los años 90, el gobierno peruano implementó una serie de medidas económicas y tributarias para promover la inversión en nuestro país. Este artículo, después de más de dos décadas y con las modificaciones propias de estas medidas, hará un breve repaso de los antecedentes a la promulgación de la Ley N°30230 en relación al tratamiento que se da a las nuevas inversiones no previstas en el Contrato de Estabilidad Tributaria. Luego, se mostrará cómo la Ley N° 30230 institucionaliza una errónea interpretación de las normas que regulan los Contratos de Estabilidad Tributaria. Asimismo, se expondrán los motivos por los que la regulación vigente no resulta ser una adecuada herramienta para promover la inversión. Finalmente, se realizará una síntesis del presente artículo a través de las conclusiones.

Purpose – is to analyse the different investment sources for sustainable development of a country and reveal the interaction between investment sources for sustainability and a country's sustainable development. Research methodology – analysis of scientific sources, collection and systematization of statistical data, a method for sustainable development index calculation, correlation regression analysis. Findings – each analysed country's progress of sustainable development is expressed as integrated sustainable development index revealed that all analysed countries are gradually increasing their sustainable development results. All three analysed investment sources are strongly affecting countries sustainable development, and stochastic relationship exists between variables. Research limitations – statistical data with incomplete time series, for which not all the most important sustainable development indicators were selected. The case of three Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia) is used for the period 2003–2017. The three main investment sources for sustainable development of a country: assignations of the state budget, EU structural funds, and direct investments, are chosen for the research. Practical implications – results can be used in calculations for other countries sustainable development and investments interactions. They can be used to evaluate the impact of the different source and contribute to the modelling of their use. Originality/Value – this article is unique because it reveals the interaction of multiple sustainability sources, in terms of investment sources for sustainability and the results of a country's sustainable development. These sources can be supplemented and adapted to other countries (at least in developed countries EU level). Keywords: sustainability, sustainable development indicators, integrated sustainable development index, assignation of the budget, EU funds, direct investment

Investments in the agricultural sector of Uzbekistan are one of the most important factors of its development. The subject of the research is relations between volume of investments directed into Agricultural sector of the Uzbekistan’s economy, its impact to agricultural output in terms of volume of production, food production index and value added indexes. To identify quantitatively above mentioned relations, methods of economic – mathematical modelling are employed in this research.

We focused on investing and the risks, that accompany investors, through an overview of the basics of risk management in the context of investing, and then focused on the psychology of risk in investing. We highlighted and explained the common forms of risks that are present in various investments in financial instruments. With a critical analysis of the field, we present our examples and experiences with investing. Through the framework of the theoretical review of the literature, we analyse the risks we have encountered and the ways or strategies by which we have either eliminated these risks or reduced the probability of their occurrence. We also paid attention to risks, according to our perceptions over the period, from the first investment in cryptocurrencies to investing in shares and index funds.

In this work we analyse the CPI index as the official index to measure inflation in Albania, Harmo-nized Indices of Consumer Prices (HICPs) as the bases for comparative measurement of inflation in European countries and other financial indicators that may affect CPI. This study is an attempt to model CPI based on combination of multiple regression model with time series forecasting models. In the first approach, time series models were used directly on the CPI time series index to obtain the forecast. In the second approach, the time series models (SARIMA, ETS) were used to model and simulate forecast for each subcomponent with significant correlation to CPI and then use the multiple regression model to obtain CPI forecast. The projection of this indicator is important for understand-ing the country's economic and social development. This study helps researchers in the field of time series modeling, economic analysis and investments.

Dieses Papier untersucht die Sinnhaftigkeit von Fine Wine als Alternatives Investment unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der Kosten eines Fine Wine Investments. Ist Fine Wine zur weiteren Diversifizierung und damit zur Verbesserung des Risikio-Return-Profils von global in Aktien und Anleihen investierenden Portfolios geeignet? Die Analyse erfolgt in einem ersten Schritt auf Indexbasis und in einem zweiten Schritt auf Basis von realen Investitions-möglichkeiten. Die Referenzwährungen sind der US-Dollar und der Euro. Für die Indexbetrachtung werden auf der Aktienseite der MSCI-World-Index und für die Anleihen der JPM-World-Government-Bond-Index verwendet. Bei den Daten für die Investition in Fine Wine liegt der Fokus auf dem Liv-ex-50-Index der im Jahre 1999 gegründeten Londoner Weinbörse Liv-ex. Bei der realen Investition werden für die Datenanalyse bei Aktien und Anleihen Indexfonds verwendet. Da es für die Investition in Fine Wine keinen Indexfonds gibt, wird der Liv-ex-50-Index inklusive aller Kosten einer realen Investition berechnet. Es werden verschiedene Portfoliozusammensetzungen verglichen. Zum einen wird ein Portfolio aus 50% Aktien und 50% Anleihen einem Portfolio aus 45% Aktien, 45% Anleihen und 10% Fine Wine gegenübergestellt. Zum an-deren wird ein Portfolio aus 25% Aktien und 75% Anleihen gegen ein Portfolio aus 20% Aktien, 70% Anleihen und 10% Fine Wine gemessen. Als Vergleichsmaßstab werden die annualisierte Rendite, die Standardabweichung sowie das Sharpe-Ratio der jeweiligen Portfolios berechnet. Die Ergebnisse für die genannten Zeiträume sind ernüchternd. Die Beimischung von Fine Wine führt auf Indexebene lediglich zu einer leichten Verbesserung der annualisierten Rendite aber zu einer markanten Erhöhung des Risi-kos. Bei der Betrachtung der realen Investition kommen die hohen Kosten eines Investments in Fine Wine zum Tragen. Die annualisierte Rendite ist im Vergleich zu den Portfolios ohne Beimischung von Fine Wine niedriger bei gleichzeitig höheren Risikowerten. Lediglich bei der Betrachtung auf Indexbasis in Euro kann bei einem Portfolio eine leichte Verbesserung der Sharpe-Ratio verzeichnet werden. Bei der Betrachtung nach Kosten führt in allen Fällen die Beimischung von Fine Wine zu einer Verschlechterung der Sharpe-Ratios.

Women’s schooling has long been regarded as one of the best investments in development. Using two different cross-nationally comparable data sets which both contain measures of schooling, assessments of literacy, and life outcomes for more than 50 countries, we show the association of women’s education (defined as schooling and the acquisition of literacy) with four life outcomes (fertility, child mortality, empowerment, and financial practices) is much larger than the standard estimates of the gains from schooling alone. First, estimates of the association of outcomes with schooling alone cannot distinguish between the association of outcomes with schooling that actually produces increased learning and schooling that does not. Second, typical estimates do not address attenuation bias from measurement error. Using the new data on literacy to partially address these deficiencies, we find that the associations of women’s basic education (completing primary schooling and attaining literacy) with child mortality, fertility, women’s empowerment and the associations of men’s and women’s basic education with positive financial practices are three to five times larger than standard estimates. For instance, our country aggregated OLS estimate of the association of women’s empowerment with primary schooling versus no schooling is 0.15 of a standard deviation of the index, but the estimated association for women with primary schooling and literacy, using IV to correct for attenuation bias, is 0.68, 4.6 times bigger. Our findings raise two conceptual points. First, if the causal pathway through which schooling affects life outcomes is, even partially, through learning then estimates of the impact of schooling will underestimate the impact of education. Second, decisions about how to invest to improve life outcomes necessarily depend on estimates of the relative impacts and relative costs of schooling (e.g., grade completion) versus learning (e.g., literacy) on life outcomes. Our results do share the limitation of all previous observational results that the associations cannot be given causal interpretation and much more work will be needed to be able to make reliable claims about causal pathways.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.