Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „In-country adjustment“

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship of regulatory foci (promotion focus and prevention focus) to expatriate adjustments (general, interaction, and work adjustments) and explore whether mentoring functions (psychosocial support, role modeling, and career development) moderate the aforementioned relationship. Design/methodology/approach Using 141 questionnaired primary data (response rate 32.25 percent) gathered from at least six months experienced expatiates of multinational companies in six industries, this study adopts regression method to examine the moderating effect. Findings This study found that promotion focus was positively related to the interaction and work adjustment, respectively; prevention focus was positively related to the general, interaction, and work adjustment, respectively. Psychosocial support function moderates the relationship between promotion focus and general adjustment. Career development function moderates the relationships between promotion/prevention foci and work adjustment. Originality/value According to the interactionism perspective, behavior is a result of the interaction between personality and situational influences, has a long history in social and personality psychology. This study extends this perspective to the interactive effects of mentorship (situational factor) and expatriates’ regulatory foci (personality factor) on expatriate adjustment.

This paper discusses adjustments of capital account restrictions and exchange rate regimes in East Asia. Monetary authorities have two options for these adjustments: Gradual adjustments and rapid adjustments. We analyze the costs and benefits for both adjustment options in each area, i.e., capital account restrictions and exchange rate regimes. The paper provides prominent country cases for each adjustment option to emphasize the benefits for policymakers. We then propose four transition policy options for East Asian countries aiming to relax capital account restrictions and increase flexibility in exchange rates from fixed regimes with capital account controls.

Purpose – Reasons for women’s underrepresentation in international assignments include stereotypical assumptions within organizations about their ability to adjust abroad and more broadly a lack of trust from the corporate headquarters. Female expatriates’ adjustment may strongly vary depending on the host country and on host-country nationals’ attitudes toward them. Yet up until today, very few studies have examined female expatriate adjustment in a single and non-Asian host country. The purpose of this paper is to address this gap by comparing the cross-cultural adjustment of male and female expatriates in Switzerland. Design/methodology/approach – This study replicates Selmer and Leung’s (2003a) study design in order to compare adjustment of male and female expatriates working in multinational companies in the French-speaking part of Switzerland. Based on 152 valid questionnaires collected, the authors performed a multivariate analysis of covariance and further analyses of covariance to compare male and female expatriate adjustment. Findings – The authors find that female expatriates have significantly higher interaction and work adjustment levels than their male counterparts, while no significant differences between men and women were observed in terms of general adjustment. These findings in a European context are consistent with those of Selmer and Leung in an Asian context. Originality/value – Very few studies to date have examined the adjustment of female expatriates in a western host-country context, despite the fact that host-country cultural norms might strongly influence women’s experiences. The research brings new empirical evidence about cross-cultural adjustment of female and male expatriates in a western location. Contrary to persistent stereotypical assumptions, results emphasize again that women are able to adjust better or at least as well as their male counterparts.

In a two-country world economy, endogenous interest rate adjustment makes one country's consumption-habit dynamics affected by the other country's habit. External indebtedness depends crucially on international differences in habit-adjusted net output less habitual living standard. Interest rate adjustment enlarges the consumption impact of an income shock. Consistent with the empirical facts, the habit parameter of a large country would thus be underestimated, and the current account volatility overestimated, if they were estimated using a small-country model. An increase in fiscal spending in one country can benefit the country and harm the neighbor one due to reversed intertemporal terms-of-trade effects.

Globalization and international business increasingly require the services of skilled expatriates in overseas offices. Over the past 50 years, numerous studies have focused on various factors affecting expatriate adjustment, primarily through quantitative research, reaching no conclusions on what factors in cross-cultural training would guarantee expatriate success. Expatriate failure has high personal and organizational costs. The purpose of this study was to use the qualitative methodology of narrative inquiry to investigate the adjustment, transition, and repatriation experience as a holistic process. Two theoretical constructions, Bandura's social learning theory, applied to the learning process in an international assignment, and social identity theory, represented key factors in the expatriate experience. The overarching research question investigated the distinct factors that contributed to the overall success or failure of an expatriate. Narrative inquiry, and open-ended questions, allowed the participants to reveal their stories. Participants (N = 14) were selected using criterion and convenience sampling. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and coded into themes using an iterative process. Results established weak organizational support in the preparation and repatriation stages. Participants considered their assignments a success and exhibited strong self-efficacy and internal locus of control. The need for successful expatriate performance will continue to increase with globalization; findings in this study can contribute to the training, support, and repatriation of employees. The potential for social change includes the improvement in global business functioning and international understanding.

A primary purpose of this study was to develop and test a model of adaptation for children and adolescents who move to a foreign country. The model was developed from existing literature on adult migration, and from the small fund of knowledge which exists on immigrant children. Adaptation was conceptualized into two kinds - sociocultural and psychological. It was proposedthat sociocultural adaptation would mediate the relationship between a number of independent variables (coping strategies, life events, length of stay, social support, and cultural distance) andthe dependent variable, which was psychological adaptation. Use of Path analytical techniques demonstrated the poor utility of this model. There was no support for a linear relationship between psychological adaptation and sociocultural adaptation. Exploratory, data-based analyses were then carried out to determine significant predictors for sociocultural and psychological adaptation. While a significant set of predictors emerged for sociocultural adaptation, few individual significant variables emerged for psychological adaptation. Limitations of this study are noted.The implications for intervention of this finding to migrant children and adolescents are discussed.
Master of Science

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Bachelors
Sciences
Political Science

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics
The first decade of the 21st century introduced the euro in Portugal. This step towards European integration implied that Portuguese economic authorities lose monetary independence. We investigate the impact of that loss in Portuguese competitiveness through the construction of competitiveness indicators, and on current account dynamics trough a decomposition of the current account. Despite the continuous loss of competitiveness after 1999, empirically we don’t find evidence that the euro is contributing to it. We do find evidence that current account adjustment pattern changed after 1999.

This study explores the adjustment of Greek remigrant students in Greek public schools after their families' return to Greece from the Federal Republic of Germany. Teacher and self-rating instruments were used, and achievement and language competence data were obtained. The sample consisted of 13- to 15-year-old junior high school students in northern Greece. The remigrant students were divided into two groups ("early return" and "late return"), based on the year of return to Greece. The control group consisted of all the local classmates of these students. Remigrant students (mainly late return) were found to experience difficulties mainly in the language/learning domain and less in the interpersonal and intrapersonal behavior domains.

International borders are dissolving as a result of globalization, and cross-cultural interactions are becoming a regular part of modern business. Many firms are expanding internationally, necessitating the need to send workers, known as expatriates, abroad. Being able to operate and adjust in a foreign country requires certain skills and traits. Not being able to adjust well in the host country has many times led expatriates to fail their international mission, which negatively affects the expatriate as well as the firm. Previous studies suggest that by selecting and offering a proper cross-cultural training (CCT), expatriates should have an easier time adjusting in the country they move to. Thus, leading to a successful international assignment.  Research on selection and CCTs has predominantly focused on creating frameworks and finding variables that contribute to expatriates’ adjustment. However, there are still unclarities and disagreements regarding the effects of selection and CCT on the expatriates’ in-country adjustment. Therefore, it is important to understand whether expatriates perceive these processes helpful for their adjustment. Moreover, studies that have implemented these frameworks and variables into practicality for Asian or African host countries, thus leaving a gap in Europe and its emerging countries. As such, this study will contribute to this gap to further understand how selection and CCT affect the expatriate’s adjustment in Greece.   A literature is presented with the relevant theories that exist in the field of expatriate selection, cross-cultural training and adjustment, and additionally cultural shock theories. With the aim of collecting data for this study, a qualitative method was approached, where 12 in-depth interviews were conducted on expatriates working in Greece. The interview covered topics of how they perceive their selection process, the CCT they received before their mission and their adjustment in the host country. General findings were that the classical selection and CCT theories and processes are still applicable up to this day. An additional finding to these theories was that the expatriates do not favor CCT processes. Moreover, it was observed that the perceived cultural differences between the home and host country of the expatriate is the main factor that is affected by the selection and CCT. Finally, the researchers suggest further research to be conducted for several factors concerning the in-country adjustment.

Purpose: This paper aims to examine the association between two market environment factors (industry and nature of market) during the usage of the slogan as part of the corporate visual identity (CVI) of a multinational firm in the domestic market and adjustments of the slogan when firms enter a foreign market. Moreover, this thesis tries to broaden the knowledge about the slogan as an extrinsic brand of origin (BO) cue (in terms of the language). Methodology & Approach: Applying a deductive approach, a mixed method research has been chosen as research strategy, combining methods of both quantitative (content analysis via websites, N=329) and qualitative (semi-structured interviews, N=3) research strategies. Findings: Less than half of the observed sample (42.6%) uses a slogan as a tool for marketing and branding. The industry is significantly associated with the decision whether a company should use a slogan in their CVI. Furthermore, the factors industry and the market (B2B or B2C) are significantly associated with the decision of a slogan adjustment when firms internationalize. Besides that, the concept of country of origin (COO) does not play a significant role in the context of a slogan strategy as many firms mainly adjust the slogan to the foreign language when entering the foreign market. Qualitative interviews revealed that the COO concept depends on the country image and the industry. Moreover, a great share of English slogans in the primal state was found during the content analysis, which have been identified as more unlikely to be adjusted in foreign markets. Research limitations: The amount of the investigated companies as well as taking only one foreign market for each of the companies into consideration limited the sample. Moreover this observation was taken at a present point in time, neglecting possible causes and developments over time. Managerial implications: The findings demonstrated that it is crucial for managers in the context of the slogan to consider the market environments (i.e. industry, nature of market) when they enter a foreign market and when they create one in the domestic market. English slogans might be able to be transferred unchanged to the foreign market. In essence, some industries could trigger benefits by showing their origins in the slogan via their native language. Originality/value: As one of the first papers, the concept of CVI and COO has been combined, focusing on the slogan as an extrinsic cue for customers. Analyzing global companies (N=329) and conducting 3 in-depth interviews as a follow-up, several factors as associations to the usage of slogans and possible adjustments when entering a foreign market have been investigated.

This thesis draws on David Harvey’s concept of “accumulation by dispossession” and an international political economy (IPE) approach centred on the institutional arrangements and power structures that privilege certain actors and values, in order to critique current capitalist practices of primitive accumulation by the global corporate extractive industry. The thesis examines how accumulation by dispossession by the global extractive industry is facilitated by the “free entry” or “free mining” principle. It does so by focusing on Canada as a leader in the global extractive industry and the spread of this country’s mining laws to other countries – in other words, the transnationalisation of norms in the global extractive industry – so as to maintain a consistent and familiar operating environment for Canadian extractive companies. The transnationalisation of norms is further promoted by key international institutions such as the World Bank, which is also the world’s largest development lender and also plays a key role in shaping the regulations that govern natural resource extraction. The thesis briefly investigates some Canadian examples of resource extraction projects, in order to demonstrate the weaknesses of Canadian mining laws, particularly the lack of protection of landowners’ rights under the free entry system and the subsequent need for “free, prior and informed consent” (FPIC). The thesis also considers some of the challenges to the adoption and implementation of the right to FPIC. These challenges include embedded institutional structures like the free entry mining system, international political economy (IPE) as shaped by international institutions and powerful corporations, as well as concerns regarding ‘local’ power structures or the legitimacy of representatives of communities affected by extractive projects. The thesis concludes that in order for Canada to be truly recognized as a leader in the global extractive industry, it must establish legal norms domestically to ensure that Canadian mining companies and residents can be held accountable when there is evidence of environmental and/or human rights violations associated with the activities of Canadian mining companies abroad. The thesis also concludes that Canada needs to address underlying structural issues such as the free entry mining system and implement FPIC, in order to curb “accumulation by dispossession” by the extractive industry, both domestically and abroad.

碩士
東吳大學
國際貿易學系
95
The trend of globalization as well as reform and liberalization by China has attracted a tremendous number of Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) making investments in Mainland China. In an effort to capture market potentials, an increasing number of MNEs have assigned third-country nationals (TCNs) with identical cultural and racial backgrounds plus professional management expertise from Taiwan to high caliber positions in Mainland China. The main purpose of this research is to study factors, such as individual, job, organization, and nonwork, and their impacts on adjustment in the overseas setting for TCNs of MNE. In addition, overseas adjustments in terms of work, interaction and general dimensions are explored and thereon their relationships with job performance are investigated. Using a sample of ten high level executives who are TCNs from Taiwan and assigned to Mainland China by MNEs, I conducted in-depth interviews to collect information for documentary analysis. The findings include: 1. TCNs' past experiences of frequent international business traveling and training plus extrovert personality have positive effects on adjustment in the overseas setting. 2. TCNs' job autonomy and clear role definition exert positive effects on adjustment in the overseas setting. 3. Cross-cultural training and social supports provided by MNEs have positive effects on adjustment in the overseas setting for TCNs. 4. Adjustments by family members of TCNs show positive effects on adjustment of expatriates in the overseas setting for TCNs. 5. Adjustments in the overseas setting for TCNs show positive effects on their job performance. 6. International assignments of TCNs dispatched by MNEs have positive effects on the international career development of TCNs.

AbstractThe daunting effects of climate change are more visible and acute among rural people in most developing countries. Smallholder farmers in rural communities are more encumbered by climate change impacts and they have been reeling with climate induced shocks for some time. Their vulnerability to climate change impacts is aggravated by high dependence on the climate volatile natural resource base, high poverty levels, lack of adaptive capacity, low educational levels, and lack of technoscience-based technologies among other key compounding factors. In the light of this, Zimbabwe is still crawling to implement and administer effective climate change management measures aimed at disaster risk reduction and management, vulnerability reduction, social resilience, and capacity building because of political and socioeconomic quagmires trapping the country. Consequently, rural people are the hardest hit by these developments. Climate change management connotes a human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases and adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects, in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities through mitigation and adaptation. Nevertheless, rural people are on record of engaging in a plethora of activities to manage climate change and its actual or potential risks. However, their efforts are marred by an avalanche of setbacks which serve as barriers to climate change management. Against this backdrop, this book chapter intends to delineate the factors serving as barriers to climate change management in Zimbabwe’s rural communities.

AbstractThis chapter covers the history of the international market development of the researched firms and in addition how these companies established agent networks, built sales subsidiaries worldwide, or enlisted partnerships, and how they reacted to constantly changing market developments requiring adjustments in their distribution networks. The early founders of Swiss SMEs engaged in extensive travel to promote their companies at a time when the transport infrastructure was still rudimentary. Distributors and agent networks were built and still maintained by smaller companies, at times expanded to include formal distribution partnerships. Subsidiary networks were the preferred choice of larger companies which had greater volumes per country markets. Sometimes, market entry was achieved by building or acquiring manufacturing operations. Cracking some of the most difficult markets, such as Japan, posed special challenges. And finally, when industry conditions changed, even well-planned distribution strategies needed to be changed.

The politics of adjustment in deficit countries were characterized by strong domestic discontent, leading to significant political upheaval. Why did policymakers in these countries nonetheless implement unprecedented austerity and painful structural reforms? Zooming in on the domestic drivers of this adjustment choice, this chapter highlights mechanisms by which internal adjustment grew more politically feasible in deficit countries. The chapter draws on original survey data on the policy preferences of 359 economic interest groups in Ireland, Spain and Greece. It finds that while groups were consistently negative to a full range of scenarios by which external adjustment could be achieved in deficit countries, their preferences toward austerity measures and structural reforms varied much more widely. This variation, it is argued, facilitated the formation of pro-internal adjustment coalitions in deficit country contexts. Moreover, the chapter shows that opportunity costs mattered. While opposed to internal adjustment in absolute terms, a large majority of interest groups in deficit countries grew pliable to the prospect of it when faced with a choice between this and the alternative of abandoning the euro; even if internal adjustment programs were comprised of policies that groups themselves distinctly opposed.

Surplus countries usually do not attract attention in balance-of-payment crises. However, even though the immediate crisis repercussions mostly center on countries with large current account deficits, surplus countries form an integral part of current account imbalances. They contribute to the underlying problem and could be part of the solution. While in the Eurozone crisis this became especially apparent in negotiations about bailout packages and mutual adjustment measures, such conflicts between surplus countries and deficit states occupy hardly a unique situation. This chapter, therefore, examines the position of surplus countries during the Eurozone crisis in a broader, comparative perspective. Building on the concepts laid out in Chapter 2, it develops a quantitative measure of surplus country vulnerability profiles, which express the relative costs of external and internal adjustment. Specifically, vulnerability profiles of surplus countries in the Eurozone crisis are developed against the backdrop of 272 historical surplus episodes in 61 countries and are specifically compared with those outside the monetary union and with those in the EMS crisis. Similarly to their deficit counterparts, the surplus countries in the Eurozone were in the “misery corner,” where they faced high costs to both external and internal adjustment. The vulnerability profiles indicate why they acquiesced to bailout packages for deficit countries, but only after a difficult and lengthy political struggle.

This paper investigates the role of country specific and global factors, particularly oil price, on the real exchange rate (RER) in selected Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan) over the period from 2000 to 2011. The group of higher income, lower income, oil and gas exporter, and non- oil and gas exporter countries are further analyzed separately to induce homogeneity. The analysis is based on panel smooth transition autoregressive (PSTR) model, which takes into account the nonlinear dynamic adjustment of the real exchange rate towards equilibrium. The estimation results show strong nonlinear dynamic adjustment for the real exchange rate. Upon obtaining strong evidence on nonlinear dynamic behavior, which is modeled using a smooth transition autoregressive model with two regimes, we test the impact of global and country specific drivers on the real exchange rate. As an extension, panel smooth transition error correction model is estimated. Results show that there exists an asymmetric behavior of the real exchange rate when facing an over- or undervaluation of the domestic currency. The evidence also shows that oil price has significant impact for the appreciation of domestic currencies, particularly in oil and gas exporting relatively richer countries, and the CIS countries have become vulnerable to global shocks.

The relevance of the study is due to the fact that the current stage of development of the world economy is characterized by a deep structural adjustment, leading to increased differences between industrialized and developing countries. The need to analyze the processes taking place in the modern world economy, as well as the possible scenario of its development under the influence of the demographic factor, further confirms the relevance of this study. The study raises the problem of global economic security – the changing structure of the distribution of the world's population by country and region, the aging of the population in some states, and the formation of a young age structure and accelerated population growth in others.

The article examines the validity of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis for Kazakhstan by using the data set belonging to the period January 1995 to December 2012. Both linear and nonlinear unit root tests are used to make an econometrical investigation on stationarity characteristics of real exchange rate series of Kazakhstan’s Tenge that defined according to different foreign countries or country groups. First of two nonlinear unit root tests that applied in this paper models structural change as a smooth transition and the other nonlinear unit root test takes into account both structural change and asymmetric adjustment characteristics of real exchange rates. Linear unit root test findings support the validity of the PPP hypothesis between Kazakhstan and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. In addition to this finding, unit root tests that allow for nonlinear adjustment support evidences on stationarity of Tenge – US dollar real exchange rate, Tenge – Euro real exchange rate and Tenge’s non-CIS related real effective exchange rate series. As a whole, findings of this study provide a strong support on the validity of PPP hypothesis for Kazakhstan. Furthermore, it is also shows that the nonlinear adjustment characteristics of real exchange rate should be taken into account, if foreign countries are represented by free market economies.

As a country in economic transition, Russia's tax system is in a process of continuous adjustment and change. The changes in Russia's tax system have manifested in different models at different stages, and correspondingly, the effects of reforms are also different. In the process of transition, Russia's tax system Changes in the tax system are affected by many factors. Especially since the new crown epidemic, Russia has introduced many emergency tax systems. Understanding the process of changes in this system and the interaction of various factors and the influence of each other has a certain impact on China's tax reform. Reference significance. This article sorts out the basic economic status changes in Russia before and after the epidemic, and at the same time pays attention to the trend of the new tax system in Russia, and provides suggestions for the formulation of China's tax system.

The methodology of all kinds of geodetic measurements of the Geodetic Vertical Second Order Network, the information on the observation data received and main results of the accuracy estimation and adjustment of the network are presented. In 2006 the development of the Geodetic Vertical First Order Network of Lithuania was completed. It was the basis to adopt the Height System of Lithuania (LAS07). The densification of the Geodetic Vertical First Order Network started in 2010 by development of the Geodetic Vertical Second Order Network. The Second Order Network consists of 74 levelling lines, and total length of them is 3087 km. In the period of 2010–2013 the 16 levelling lines (814 km) were observed. Rest of levelling lines were observed in 2013–2016. Total number of benchmarks is 2099. The levelling was executed by digital levels Trimble DiNi12 and coded rods Nedo LD13. All ground benchmarks were positioned by GPS receivers Trimble 5700 and Trimble Zephyr Geodetic antennas. LitPOS stations served as fiducial points. The gravity accelerations at all benchmarks were observed by gravimeters Scintrex CG-5. The levellings of the Second Order Network carried out is characterized by high precision: the double run of one kilometre levelling RMS error does not exceeds 0.7 mm. The adjustments of the second order levelling lines applying least square method were executed separately in each region outlined by the First Order network lines and border of a country.

In the first part of this study, Economic Cooperation and Utopian Eurasia, the main characteristics of the new collaborations in the world, the concept of economic cooperation, the effects of the elements, the economic cooperation, the characteristics of structural adjustment, the global market targets with the economic cooperation, the adaptation possibilities and problems of the economic cooperation will be explained. Based on the Eurasian concept, the basic population, economic structure and development potential of the Eurasian Economic Union will be discussed. In the third and the last part, together with the transformations in the world, which carry the confrontational processes, it will be included in the contemporary communication to achieve the success of the economic cooperation by means of the common communication network and the changes in the areas where the rapid change between the political, economic, cultural, technological and social decision-making centers become up-to-date. the necessity of being equipped with sufficient information about economic associations and developments, the success of the country in the field of economy, the changes and developments occurring in the world will be evaluated in the context of Eurasian economic cooperation and the results and suggestions will be made.

In May 2015, Kyrgyzstan became a member of the Eurasian Economic Union, participation in which requires regulation of the economy, taking into account the goals and objectives of the Union. Today Kyrgyzstan is interested in the future of its membership in the EAEU: can we radically change the economic situation in the country and the structure of the economy. Kyrgyzstan's economy requires coordination with external actors in terms of domestic consumption and increasing export potential. To achieve this it is necessary: first, to develop a reasonable program of development of the industry, including the formation of large enterprises and their balanced arrangement in accordance with the level of productive forces; secondly, to make adjustments to the work of the construction sector in the building of not only housing complex, but also the development of infrastructure in all regions of the country and, thirdly, to follow the path of consolidation of the agricultural enterprises based on specialization, taking into account the export interests of Kyrgyzstan.

Abstract The Kenyan photovoltaic industry has been growing steadily in recent years. Since 1990 more than 2.5 megawatts of photovoltaic capacity have been sold in Kenya and 60% of these sales have gone into home systems as part of new energy supplies. The demand for energy in Kenya exceeds the supply and for this reason renewable energy is regarded a priority in the energy sector. A solution to this problem lies in four areas: technology development, environmental protection, energy economics and socio-cultural adjustments. This paper discusses the state of current research and applications of stand-alone building-integrated PV home systems by looking at the possibilities and limitations in this developing country. Houses need a PV panel-surface area of about 36m2 to meet basic energy needs.

Encouragement of Exportation; It is important to develop our exportation to increase our share in the world exportation market so that our national companies can improve their competitive power. There have been some adjustments in the exportation encouragement system in our country since 1980. The main aim of the State Assistance for Exportation is to support the production and marketing activities of small and medium sized companies (KOBİ) to help them gain competitive power in the world. In this article, we have mentioned some State Notifications and Cabinet Decisions concerning Tourism Sector. According to the 13/3 article of the Tourism Encouragement Law of 2643, tourism companies obtaining the amount of the foreign currency determined by the cabinet every year are regarded as exporters and have the right to get State Export Encouragement Assistance.

With the establishment of the Constitution of 1988, a new approach to urban governance emerged in Brazil. The document brought significant changes regarding the right to the city and adequate housing, in particular, for the urban poor. The recognition of these rights triggered the experimentation with inclusionary policies around the country (Rolnik and Santoro, 2013). As a result, informal settlements started to be acknowledged as part of the formal city and were included in zoning and planning laws. One of the main outcomes of these experiments was the creation of Special Zones of Social Interest (ZEIS), a land and housing policy that linked investments on infrastructure in precarious settlements to land regularisation processes. In 2001, ZEIS was incorporated into the City Statute, a document that established a range of collective rights to guide land use and development. Since then, the instrument has gained popularity in the country as a land regularisation tool. Nevertheless, a considerable share of settlements remains poorly built and addressing informality is still a challenge. Therefore, this paper evaluated the co-relation between the implementation of ZEIS, land regularisation processes and provision of basic infrastructure in precarious settlements. More specifically, it measured the quality of State interventions supported by the zoning. By focusing on quality, this article aimed to evaluate whether ZEIS has encouraged adequate housing conditions for the urban poor or reinforced precarious patterns of development. To explore this relationship, a case study was conducted on the performance of ZEIS in Favela of Sapé, a settlement in the West of São Paulo. As a methodology, case studies have become a common option for performing evaluations and analyse what a program, practice or police has achieved (Yin, 2012). Moreover, this research strategy commonly relies on various sources of field-based information (Yin, 2012). Accordingly, this paper comprised mainly primary qualitative data. It also made broad use of content and secondary analysis, with the goal of ensuring validity and reliability. The performance of ZEIS in Sapé demonstrated that since its implementation, in 2001, tenure security and physical characteristics have enhanced considerably in the area, particularly, when it comes to housing quality and provision of basic infrastructure. Nevertheless, these accomplishments are being compromised by a strong process of reoccupation which is supported by illegal organisations. In addition, there is a delay of the Municipality in meeting the demands for housing in the area because of governance issues and mismanagement of financial resources. This scenario, combined with a weak inspection body, has once again permitted the development of precarious housing and infrastructure in the area. It also has compromised the issuance of freehold land titles to the settlement’s dwellers. In other words, the site is under a vicious circle where neither the provision of housing and infrastructure is enough to meet the demand nor the land regularisation is completed because of the reoccupations. In sum, although the implementation of ZEIS seems to have a share of responsibility in Sapé’s upgrading process, the local authorities do not have the capacity of reinforcement necessary to maintain these improvements. Furthermore, it is fair to assume that the current legal framework provided by ZEIS is not adequate for the context of São Paulo and requires further adjustments. Not only because of the complex character of the city, but also because in practice, urban norms may be interpreted differently according to political and cultural conditions (Rolnik, 1997).

This paper applies probit regression models to a nationally representative household survey dataset collected in 2016-2017 to analyze the relationships between various socio-demographic variables and adult Body Mass Index (BMI) in Suriname. Our results indicate that women, the elderly, and couples either married and/or living together are more likely to be obese or overweight. As expected, this is also true for individuals who have chronic illnesses. The analysis also finds that individuals who engage in a sport or in other forms of exercise, even if modest, have lower odds of being overweight or obese. Interestingly, the findings indicate that individuals who benefit from government social safety net programs are less likely to be associated with being overweight or obese. The results of this study have implications for the adjustment of current Surinamese nutritional guidelines as well as the design and implementation of targeted obesity-reduction policies that recognize that being overweight is influenced by various characteristics. Although the results are country-specific, they have the potential to influence action in all countries in the Caribbean that lack policies to address obesity.

This document is part of a series of technical notes describing the compilation of a new companion database that complements the World Income Inequality Database. It aims at facilitating the analysis of inequality as well as progress in achieving the global goal of reducing inequality within and across countries. This new dataset also includes an annual series reporting the income distribution at the percentile level for all citizens in the world, regardless of where they live, since 1950 to present. A previous note described the selection of income distribution series. Since these series may differ across welfare concepts and other methods used, this technical note describes the second stage, constructing integrated and standardized country series. It discusses all the necessary adjustments conducted to construct the final series for each country, with consistent estimates of the distribution of net income per capita over the entire period for which information is available. This is mainly divided into two stages. First, integrating country series by interlinking series that overlap over time, then using a more general regression-based approach.

Adaptive programming and management principles focused on learning, experimentation, and evidence-based decision making are gaining traction with donor agencies and implementing partners in international development. Adaptation calls for using learning to inform adjustments during project implementation. This requires information gathering methods that promote reflection, learning, and adaption, beyond reporting on pre-specified data. A focus on adaptation changes traditional thinking about program cycle. It both erases the boundaries between design, implementation, and evaluation and reframes thinking to consider the complexity of development problems and nonlinear change pathways.Supportive management structures and processes are crucial for fostering adaptive management. Implementers and donors are experimenting with how procurement, contracting, work planning, and reporting can be modified to foster adaptive programming. Well-designed monitoring, evaluation, and learning systems can go beyond meeting accountability and reporting requirements to produce data and learning for evidence-based decision making and adaptive management. It is important to continue experimenting and learning to integrate adaptive programming and management into the operational policies and practices of donor agencies, country partners, and implementers. We need to devote ongoing effort to build the evidence base for the contributions of adaptive management to achieving international development results.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.