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1
Pounders, Cecil, Donna Marshall und Benedict Posadas. „Hurricane Katrina: Perspective from the Southern Horticultural Laboratory“. HortScience 41, Nr. 3 (Juni 2006): 680–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.21273/hortsci.41.3.680.
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Surviving extremes of climate is a fundamental component of horticultural production and research. The Southern Horticultural Laboratory has weathered many storms including Hurricane Camille and now Hurricane Katrina. The name of the research station has changed twice, both times following massive hurricanes. Before Hurricane Camille in 1969, the station title was the Tung Research Unit. After the devastation of the tung industry by Camille, the research focus changed to blueberries and other small fruit crops with a corresponding name change to Small Fruit Research Unit in 1976. The research objectives expanded to include ornamental research in 2001. Post Hurricane Katrina, the unit was renamed the Thad Cochran Southern Horticultural Laboratory to reflect the station's expanded research mission. This paper chronicles how the station reacted to the devastation of Hurricane Katrina. It also evaluates economic vitality of commodities researched at the station in contrast with storm effects on pecan and the demise of tung production. Katrina produced some temporary interruptions in production but no drastic restructuring of the type experienced with tung production after Camille is anticipated. Hurricanes are inevitable for the Gulf Coast region. Wise planning and implementation of preventative measures to protect horticultural crops and research will determine future success.
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Stalter, Richard, Joseph Rachlin und John Baden. „A forty-seven year comparison of the vascular flora at three abandoned rice fields, Georgetown, South Carolina, U.S.A.“ Journal of the Botanical Research Institute of Texas 15, Nr. 1 (23.07.2021): 271–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.17348/jbrit.v15.i1.1063.
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The vascular flora identified in 1968–1969 in three rice fields of the Winyah Bay Estuary at the Bell W. Baruch Institute for Marine Biology and Coastal Research, Georgetown County, South Carolina, abandoned in 1915, was compared with the vascular flora present in 1987–1991 and 2013–2015. Twenty vascular plant species were identified in 1968–1969 and 22 in 2013–2015 at the most saline marsh, Thousand Acre Rice Field. Forty-seven taxa were reported at Airport Marsh in 1968–1969 and 27 in 2013–2015. Fifty-six taxa were reported at Alderly in 1968–1969 with 41 identified there in 2013–2015. A parsimony algorithm was used to evaluate the distribution and co-occurrence of vascular brackish marsh species in these fields sampled at the three intervals. There was a reduction in flora at the two least saline sites, Alderly and Airport Marsh, from 1968–69 to 1987–91 and 2013–2015. Three factors—rising sea level, an increase in water salinity, and invasion by Phragmites australis—may explain this shift. There was also a shift in the flora at Thousand Acre Rice Field from 1967–1969 to 1987–1991 and 2013–2015 after the marsh was savaged by Hurricane Hugo in 1989. Invasion by non-native Phragmites australis at all sites and increase in water salinity at all sites best explain the reduction in vascular plant species at Airport Marsh and Alderly over the 47-year collection period.
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Kieper, Margaret E., Christopher W. Landsea und John L. Beven. „A Reanalysis of Hurricane Camille“. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 97, Nr. 3 (01.03.2016): 367–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-14-00137.1.
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Abstract A reanalysis of 1969’s Hurricane Camille has been completed as part of the Atlantic Hurricane Database Reanalysis Project. The reanalysis of Hurricane Camille has been expedited to allow for a homogeneous comparison of all four of the U.S.-landfalling Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale category 5 hurricanes since 1900. A review of the available ship, station, radar, aircraft, and satellite observations is presented, along with the reanalysis methodology. Highlights of the Best-Track Change Committee approved changes to Camille’s genesis, track, intensity, and dissipation are discussed. As part of the preparation for the reanalysis, research on Hurricane Camille uncovered new data useful to the reanalysis. Focus was placed on understanding the internal structure in a modern context, especially whether eyewall replacement cycles occurred, including comparisons with a similar hurricane used as a proxy. A more detailed understanding was gained of the tropical wave and genesis phases. In addition, a 901-mb dropsonde that was later rejected was reanalyzed to find out why and to see if an accurate central pressure could be determined. New landfall surface pressures along the Mississippi coast were discovered and a significant revision is made to the U.S.-landfall central pressure and intensity (maximum sustained surface winds). Additionally, a radar “loop” was constructed from archived Weather Surveillance Radar-1957 (WSR-57) film, including landfall, marking the very first time that this historic hurricane can be viewed in a time-lapse movie format.
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Lo, Jen-Men, und R. G. Dean. „EVALUATION OF A MODIFIED STRETCHED LINEAR WAVE THEORY“. Coastal Engineering Proceedings 1, Nr. 20 (29.01.1986): 40. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v20.40.
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Many experimental investigations of the drag and inertia force coefficients have relied on the determination of water particle kinematics from measured wave forms. Since the pioneering work of Airy (1845), Stokes (1847, 1880) and others, a number of wave theories have been developed for predicting water particle kinematics. Clearly, the use of a certain wave theory will lead to corresponding force coefficients. Therefore, a wave theory that provides more accurate water particle kinematics is very important. Reid (1958) developed the simple superposition method for predicting water particle kinematics from a measured sea surface that could be either random or periodic. The method is based upon linear long-crested wave theory. Borgman (1965, 1967, 1969a, 1969b) introduced the linearized spectral density of wave force on a pile due to a random Gaussian sea. The drag force component has been approximated in the simplest form by a linear relation. This method, however, cannot calculate properties of the wave field and wave force above the mean water level. Wheeler (1969) applied simple superposition with a stretching factor in the vertical coordinate position for hurricane-generated wave data during Wave Project II. With this method it was possible to evaluate the wave force above the mean water level.
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Potter, Sean. „Retrospect: August 14–22, 1969: Hurricane Camille“. Weatherwise 72, Nr. 4 (25.06.2019): 12–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00431672.2019.1612200.
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Schecter, David A. „Hurricane intensity in the Ooyama (1969) paradigm“. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 136, Nr. 652 (16.08.2010): 1920–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.657.
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Michel-Kerjan, Erwann O. „Catastrophe Economics: The National Flood Insurance Program“. Journal of Economic Perspectives 24, Nr. 4 (01.11.2010): 165–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.24.4.165.
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Hurricane Betsy, which hit Louisiana September 9, 1965, was one of the most intense, deadly, and costly storms ever to make landfall in the United States: it killed 76 people in Louisiana and caused $1.5 billion in damage—equal to nearly $10 billion in 2010 dollars. In 1965, no flood insurance was available, so victims had to rely on friends and family, charities, or federal relief. After that catastrophe, the U.S. government established a new program in 1968—the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)—to make flood insurance widely available. Now, after more than 40 years of operation, the NFIP is today one of the longest standing government-run disaster insurance programs in the world. In this paper, I present an overview of the 40 years of operation of the National Flood Insurance Program, starting with how and why it was created and how it has evolved to now cover $1.23 trillion in assets. I analyze the financial balance of the NFIP between 1969 and 2008. Excluding the 2005 hurricane season (which included Hurricane Katrina) as an outlier, policyholders have paid nearly $11 billion more in premiums than they have received in claim reimbursements over that period. However, the program has spent an average of 40 percent of all collected premiums on administrative expenses, more than three quarters of which were paid to private insurance intermediaries who sell and manage flood insurance policies on behalf of the federal government but do not bear any risk. I present challenges the NFIP faces today and propose ways those challenges might be overcome through innovative modifications.
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Farfán, Luis M., Rosario Romero-Centeno und G. B. Raga. „Observations and Forecasts from the Landfall of Tropical Cyclones John, Lane, and Paul (2006) over Northwestern Mexico“. Weather and Forecasting 27, Nr. 6 (01.12.2012): 1373–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-11-00108.1.
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Abstract This study focuses on track and intensity changes of three tropical cyclones that, during the season of 2006, developed in the eastern North Pacific basin and made landfall over northwestern Mexico. Observational datasets, including satellite and radar imagery and a rain gauge network, are used to document regional-scale structures. Additionally, gridded fields are applied to determine the large-scale environment. John made landfall as a category-2 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale and moved along the Baja California Peninsula during more than 40 h, resulting in total rainfall of up to 506 mm. The largest accumulations were located over mountains and set new records with respect to daily rates from the 1969–2005 period. Later in the season, Lane and Paul made landfall over the mainland and brought moderate rainfall over the coastal plains. Lane became a category-3 hurricane and was the third strongest hurricane to make landfall since 1969. In contrast, Paul followed a recurving track to reach the coastline as a weakening tropical depression. Strong wind shear, associated with a midlatitude trough, is found to be related to the intensity change. Examination of the official forecasts reveals that first inland positions were predicted several days before the actual landfall events. An assessment of the forecasts issued 1–3 days prior to landfall shows large track errors associated with some of the above tropical cyclones and this resulted in a westward bias. It is suggested that the track errors are due to an inadequate representation of the large-scale environment that steered the tropical cyclones.
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Bentley, Samuel J., Timothy R. Keen, Cheryl Ann Blain und W. Chad Vaughan. „The origin and preservation of a major hurricane event bed in the northern Gulf of Mexico: Hurricane Camille, 1969“. Marine Geology 186, Nr. 3-4 (Juli 2002): 423–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0025-3227(02)00297-9.
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Morris, Andrew. „The American Red Cross and Disaster Relief in the 1960s: Nonprofits and Mass Philanthropy in an Era of Rising Expectations“. Tocqueville Review 43, Nr. 2 (01.12.2022): 89–114. http://dx.doi.org/10.3138/ttr.43.2.89.
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Hurricane Camille, a devastating Category Five hurricane which hit the Gulf Coast of the U.S. in August, 1969, prompted a reassessment of U.S. disaster relief policy. The American National Red Cross, which had played the dominant role in disaster relief for individuals in the U.S. since the turn of the century, saw its role in disaster relief challenged on a number of fronts. Facing failures in its response to Camille, financial challenges in meeting every-more-costly disasters in the post-World War Two era, and rising expectations of both adequacy and equity on the part of disaster victims, the non-governmental agency ultimately found its role diminished by both the expansion of federal disaster relief programs and by the increasing prominence of disaster programs performed by other voluntary agencies such as the Salvation Army and the Mennonite Disaster Service.
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Smith, Roger K., und Michael T. Montgomery. „How important is the isothermal expansion effect in elevating equivalent potential temperature in the hurricane inner core?“ Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 139, Nr. 670 (07.06.2012): 70–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.1969.
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Koger, Jace M., und Dennis L. Newell. „Spatiotemporal history of fault–fluid interaction in the Hurricane fault, western USA“. Solid Earth 11, Nr. 6 (05.11.2020): 1969–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/se-11-1969-2020.
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Abstract. The Hurricane fault is a ∼250 km long, west-dipping, segmented normal fault zone located along the transition between the Colorado Plateau and the Basin and Range tectonic provinces in the western USA. Extensive evidence of fault–fluid interaction includes calcite mineralization and veining. Calcite vein carbon (δ13CVPDB) and oxygen (δ18OVPDB) stable isotope ratios range from −4.5 ‰ to 3.8 ‰ and from −22.1 ‰ to −1.1 ‰, respectively. Fluid inclusion microthermometry constrains paleofluid temperatures and salinities from 45 to 160 ∘C and from 1.4 wt % to 11.0 wt % as NaCl, respectively. These data suggest mixing between two primary fluid sources, including infiltrating meteoric water (70±10 ∘C, ∼1.5 wt % NaCl, δ18OVSMOW ∼-10 ‰) and sedimentary brine (100±25 ∘C, ∼11 wt % NaCl, δ18OVSMOW ∼ 5 ‰). Interpreted carbon sources include crustal- or magmatic-derived CO2, carbonate bedrock, and hydrocarbons. Uranium–thorium (U–Th) dates from five calcite vein samples indicate punctuated fluid flow and fracture healing at 539±10.8 (1σ), 287.9±5.8, 86.2±1.7, and 86.0±0.2 ka in the upper 500 m of the crust. Collectively, data predominantly from the footwall damage zone imply that the Hurricane fault imparts a strong influence on the regional flow of crustal fluids and that the formation of veins in the shallow parts of the fault damage zone has important implications for the evolution of fault strength and permeability.
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Ren, Diandong. „Hurricane Camille 1969 and Storm-Triggered Landslides in the Appalachians and a Perspective in a Warmer Climate“. International Journal of Geosciences 07, Nr. 01 (2016): 53–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ijg.2016.71006.
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Beven, John L., Lixion A. Avila, James L. Franklin, Miles B. Lawrence, Richard J. Pasch und Stacy R. Stewart. „Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2003“. Monthly Weather Review 133, Nr. 5 (01.05.2005): 1403–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr2917.1.
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Abstract The tropical cyclone activity for 2003 in the eastern North Pacific hurricane basin is summarized. Activity during 2003 was slightly below normal. Sixteen tropical storms developed, seven of which became hurricanes. However, there were no major hurricanes in the basin for the first time since 1977. The first hurricane did not form until 24 August, the latest observed first hurricane at least since reliable satellite observations began in 1966. Five tropical cyclones made landfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico, resulting in 14 deaths.
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Vecchi, Gabriel A., und Thomas R. Knutson. „Estimating Annual Numbers of Atlantic Hurricanes Missing from the HURDAT Database (1878–1965) Using Ship Track Density“. Journal of Climate 24, Nr. 6 (15.03.2011): 1736–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010jcli3810.1.
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Abstract This study assesses the impact of imperfect sampling in the presatellite era (between 1878 and 1965) on North Atlantic hurricane activity measures and on the long-term trends in those measures. The results indicate that a substantial upward adjustment of hurricane counts may be needed prior to 1965 to account for likely “missed” hurricanes due to sparse density of reporting ship traffic. After adjusting for the estimate of missed hurricanes in the basin, the long-term (1878–2008) trend in hurricane counts changes from significantly positive to no significant change (with a nominally negative trend). The adjusted hurricane count record is more strongly connected to the difference between main development region (MDR) sea surface temperature (SST) and tropical-mean SST than with MDR SST. These results do not support the hypothesis that the warming of the tropical North Atlantic due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions has caused Atlantic hurricane frequency to increase.
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Chaytor, Jason D., Wayne E. Baldwin, Samuel J. Bentley, Melanie Damour, Douglas Jones, Jillian Maloney, Michael D. Miner, Jeff Obelcz und Kehui Xu. „Short- and long-term movement of mudflows of the Mississippi River Delta Front and their known and potential impacts on oil and gas infrastructure“. Geological Society, London, Special Publications 500, Nr. 1 (20.12.2019): 587–604. http://dx.doi.org/10.1144/sp500-2019-183.
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AbstractMudflows on the Mississippi River Delta Front (MRDF) are recognized hazards to oil and gas infrastructure in the shallow (20–300 m water depth) Gulf of Mexico. Preconditioning of the seafloor for failure results from high sedimentation rates coupled with slope over-steepening, under-consolidation and abundant biogenic gas production. Catastrophic failure of production platforms and pipelines due to seafloor displacement during infrequent large hurricanes such as Camille in 1969 and Ivan in 2004, point to cyclical loading of the seafloor by waves as a primary movement trigger. Due to data limitations, the role of smaller storms and background oceanographic processes in driving seafloor movement has remained largely unconstrained but these are thought to contribute to significant seafloor change. With the aid of new high-resolution multibeam mapping and seismic reflection profiling across sections of the MRDF, several moving features within the deforming delta-front environment are investigated and potential hazards to infrastructure installed and adjacent to the region are discussed. Via repeat mapping surveys of selected areas and records of changing shipwreck locations, we highlight significant seafloor displacement across annual to decadal timescales. For example, individual blocks mapped within mudflow gullies adjacent to Southwest Pass show downslope transport of more than 80 m in a single year, while the SS Virginia, a 153 m-long oil tanker sunk in 1942, has been relocated and found to have moved downslope more than 400 m in 14 years, without a major hurricane (>Category 2) passing through the region.
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Holland, Greg J., und Peter J. Webster. „Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?“ Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 365, Nr. 1860 (30.07.2007): 2695–716. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2007.2083.
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We find that long-period variations in tropical cyclone and hurricane frequency over the past century in the North Atlantic Ocean have occurred as three relatively stable regimes separated by sharp transitions. Each regime has seen 50% more cyclones and hurricanes than the previous regime and is associated with a distinct range of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Overall, there appears to have been a substantial 100-year trend leading to related increases of over 0.7°C in SST and over 100% in tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers. It is concluded that the overall trend in SSTs, and tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers is substantially influenced by greenhouse warming. Superimposed on the evolving tropical cyclone and hurricane climatology is a completely independent oscillation manifested in the proportions of tropical cyclones that become major and minor hurricanes. This characteristic has no distinguishable net trend and appears to be associated with concomitant variations in the proportion of equatorial and higher latitude hurricane developments, perhaps arising from internal oscillations of the climate system. The period of enhanced major hurricane activity during 1945–1964 is consistent with a peak period in major hurricane proportions.
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Hodge, Joshua Brian, Faisal Anzah und Richard W. Dixon. „Miles O. Hayes, Hurricanes as Geological Agents: Case studies of Hurricanes Carla, 1961, and Cindy, 1963, 1967“. Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment 42, Nr. 2 (April 2018): 257–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0309133318765087.
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Hurricanes affect coastal regions with high winds, storm surges, and flooding rains. However, hurricanes can also alter the geomorphology of coastal regions. Miles O. Hayes’ 1967 report was the seminal work in documenting how hurricanes play an important role in nearshore sedimentation processes and how they leave recognizable storm deposits in the rock record. This paper briefly describes Hayes’ background, the writing of the text, and its impact and legacy.
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Mohan, Preeya, und Eric Strobl. „The Economic Impact of Hurricanes in History: Evidence from Sugar Exports in the Caribbean from 1700 to 1960“. Weather, Climate, and Society 5, Nr. 1 (01.01.2013): 5–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-12-00029.1.
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Abstract This study estimates the economic impact of hurricane strikes in the Caribbean from 1700 to 1960. More precisely, historical accounts of hurricane strikes and actual historical hurricane tracks, in conjunction with sugar export data taken from the colonial blue books and other historical sources, were used to create a cross-colony/country and time dataset that allows for the first time the ability to evaluate the susceptibility of local sugar production to hurricanes. The regression results show that these events had generally large statistically and economically significant impacts.
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Baker, Earl J. „Hurricane Evacuation Behavior“. International Journal of Mass Emergencies & Disasters 9, Nr. 2 (August 1991): 287–310. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/028072709100900210.
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Researchers have conducted sample surveys following at least twelve hurricanes from 1961 through 1989 in almost every state from Texas through Massachutts. The resulting database is larger than that for any other hazard, and many generalizations are feasible concerning factors accounting for variation in response to hurricane threats. Risk area and actions by public officials are the most important variables affecting public response. When public officials are aggressive in issuing evacuation notices and disseminate the messages effectively. over 90 percent of the residents of high-risk barrier islands and open coasts evacuate. People hearing, or believing they hear, official evacuation advisories or orders are more than twice as likely to leave in most locations. A greater percentage of mobile home dwellers evacuate than occupants of other housing, especially in modelate-risk and low-risk areas. General knowledge about hurricanes and hurricane safety is weakly related or unrelated to evacuation, but belief that one's own home is subject to flooding is strongly associated with whether the occupant leaves. Length of residence in hurricane prone areas and hurricane experience are not good predictors of response. The great majority of people who evacuate unnecessarily in one hurricane will still leave in future threats.
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Stewart, Stacy R., und John P. Cangialosi. „Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2010“. Monthly Weather Review 140, Nr. 9 (01.09.2012): 2769–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-11-00152.1.
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Abstract The 2010 eastern North Pacific hurricane season was one of the least active seasons on record. Only seven named storms developed, which is the lowest number observed at least since routine satellite coverage of that basin began in 1966. Furthermore, only three of those storms reached hurricane status, which is also the lowest number of hurricanes ever observed in the satellite-era season. However, two tropical storms made landfall: Agatha in Guatemala and Georgette in Mexico, with Agatha directly causing 190 deaths and moderate to severe property damage as a result of rain-induced floods and mud slides. On average, the National Hurricane Center track forecasts in the eastern North Pacific for 2010 were quite skillful.
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O'Brien, M. P., und J. W. Johnson. „THE MARCH 1962 STORM ON THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES“. Coastal Engineering Proceedings 1, Nr. 8 (29.01.2011): 32. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v8.32.
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As far back as 1635, records show that the East Coast of the United States has repeatedly suffered from severe storm damage (McAleer , 1962). Most of these storms appear to have been of the hurricane type. Such storms generally form in the Atlantic to the east of the Bahama Islands and move eastward and then turn northward to sweep along the Atlantic Coast line (Fig. 1). Along the southern part of the Atlantic Coast the hurricanes move relatively slowly; damage results principally from flooding caused by direct wind action. North of Cape Hatteras the hurricanes move more rapidly (speeds of 40 to 50 miles per hour) and damage is largely due to sudden flooding from a rapidly moving storm surge (Simpson, 1962). The combination of storm surge, wind-driven water, and storm waves inundating large areas along the coast has on numerous occasions caused great damage and loss of life. The great Atlantic Coast storm of March 1962, however, differed in character from the usual hurricane. It proved to be the most disastrous winter coastal storm on record, causing damage from southern New England to Florida. This storm, of relatively large diameter and having gale force winds, remained nearly stationary off the Coast for almost 36 hours . The size and location of the storm, as further discussed below, was such that persistent strong northeasterly winds blowing over a relatively long fetch raised the spring tides (maximum range) to near-record levels. The tidal flooding which attended this storm was in many ways more disastrous than that which accompanies hurricanes (Cooperman and Rosendal, 1962). The storm surge in tropical cyclones
generally recedes rapidly after one or two high tides, but the surge accompanying this storm occurred in many locations on four and five successive high tides .' The great destruction was caused by high waves and breakers superimposed on these high tides.
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Delgado, Sandy, Christopher W. Landsea und Hugh Willoughby. „Reanalysis of the 1954–63 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons“. Journal of Climate 31, Nr. 11 (Juni 2018): 4177–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0537.1.
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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) “best track” hurricane database (HURDAT2) is the main historical archive of all tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes from 1851 to the present in the North Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. The Atlantic Hurricane Reanalysis Project is an ongoing effort to maintain HURDAT2 and to provide the most accurate database possible based upon on all available data. The work reported here covers hurricane seasons from 1954 to 1963, during the early years of aircraft reconnaissance, but before satellite imagery became available routinely. All available original observations were analyzed from aircraft reconnaissance, ships, land stations, land-based radars, and satellite images. The track and intensity of each existing tropical cyclone have been reassessed, and previously unrecognized tropical cyclones have been discovered, analyzed, and recommended to the Best Track Change Committee for inclusion into HURDAT2. Changes were recommended for every storm analyzed in this 10-yr period.
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Wilson, Basil W. „HURRICANE WAVE STATISTICS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO“. Coastal Engineering Proceedings 1, Nr. 6 (29.01.2011): 4. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v6.4.
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This paper contains the results of a statistical hindcast study of the heights and periods of significant waves generated by hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico in the period 1900 to 1949. Results are presented in a series of polar plots of frequencies of occurrence of waves of given height and period at deep-water (100 fathoms depth) stations at different bearings offshore from five coastal stations (Brownsville, Tex., Gilchrist, Tex., Burrwood, Miss., Apalachicola, Fla., Tampa, Fla.).
Analysis was conducted by selecting a sample of 9 hurricanes and hindcasting by graphical moving fetch techniques, wave heights, periods and arrival times along eleven approach-directions to the five coastal stations for one storm, and from two to three approach directions for the remaining eight storms. Maximum heights and periods were correlated with hurricane characteristics (pressure, radius of maximum winds, forward velocity and direction). From the correlation the sample was increased by an additional 23 hurricanes whose characteristics were known. Heights and periods plotted against frequencies of occurrence gave mainly normal probability distribution Finally taking account of the total number of tropical storms occurring in the Gulf of Mexico in 50 years and the incidences of waves from various direction at the five stations, the chances of occurrence of full hurricane waves were evaluated.
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Davis, Kyle, und Xubin Zeng. „Seasonal Prediction of North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy and Major Hurricane Activity“. Weather and Forecasting 34, Nr. 1 (01.02.2019): 221–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-18-0125.1.
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Abstract Building upon our previous seasonal hurricane prediction model, here we develop two statistical models to predict the number of major hurricanes (MHs) and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the North Atlantic basin using monthly data from March to May for an early June forecast. The input data include zonal pseudo–wind stress to the 3/2 power, sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic, and, depending on the magnitude of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation index, the multivariate ENSO index. From 1968 to 2017, these models have a mean absolute error of 0.96 storms for MHs and 30 units for ACE. When tested over an independent period from 1958 to 1967, the models show a 22% improvement for MHs and 16% for ACE over a no-skill metric based on a 5-yr running average. Both the MH and ACE results show consistent improvements over those produced by three other centers using statistical–dynamical hybrid models and a 5-yr running average prediction over the period 2000–17 for MHs (2003–17 for ACE) in a simulated real-time prediction. These improvements vary from 25% to 37% for MHs and from 15% to 37% for ACE. While most forecasting centers called for a slightly above-average hurricane season in May/June 2017, our models predicted in June 2017 a very active season, in much better agreement with observations.
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Mei, Wei, Youichi Kamae, Shang-Ping Xie und Kohei Yoshida. „Variability and Predictability of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency in a Large Ensemble of High-Resolution Atmospheric Simulations“. Journal of Climate 32, Nr. 11 (08.05.2019): 3153–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0554.1.
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Abstract Variability of North Atlantic annual hurricane frequency during 1951–2010 is studied using a 100-member ensemble of climate simulations by a 60-km atmospheric general circulation model that is forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The ensemble mean results well capture the interannual-to-decadal variability of hurricane frequency in best track data since 1970, and suggest that the current best track data might underestimate hurricane frequency prior to 1966 when satellite measurements were unavailable. A genesis potential index (GPI) averaged over the main development region (MDR) accounts for more than 80% of the SST-forced variations in hurricane frequency, with potential intensity and vertical wind shear being the dominant factors. In line with previous studies, the difference between MDR SST and tropical mean SST is a useful predictor; a 1°C increase in this SST difference produces 7.05 ± 1.39 more hurricanes. The hurricane frequency also exhibits strong internal variability that is systematically larger in the model than observations. The seasonal-mean environment is highly correlated among ensemble members and contributes to less than 10% of the ensemble spread in hurricane frequency. The strong internal variability is suggested to originate from weather to intraseasonal variability and nonlinearity. In practice, a 20-member ensemble is sufficient to capture the SST-forced variability.
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Ffield, Amy. „Amazon and Orinoco River Plumes and NBC Rings: Bystanders or Participants in Hurricane Events?“ Journal of Climate 20, Nr. 2 (15.01.2007): 316–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3985.1.
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Abstract The Amazon and Orinoco River plumes and North Brazil Current (NBC) rings are investigated during the 1 June through 30 November Atlantic hurricane season to identify their impact on upper-ocean temperatures in the region and to draw attention to their potential role in hurricane maintenance and intensification. The analysis uses ocean temperature and salinity stratification data, infrared and microwave satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) data, and Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane tracks data. The Amazon–Orinoco River plume spreads into the western equatorial Atlantic Ocean forming an extensive (0°–20°N, 78°–33°W) 10–60-m-thick buoyant surface layer associated with the warmest surface temperatures (up to +3°C) in the region due to the freshwater barrier layer effect. At times the warm Amazon–Orinoco River plume is bisected by cool-surface NBC rings. For the 1960 to 2000 time period, 68% of all category 5 hurricanes passed directly over the historical region of the plume, revealing that most of the most destructive hurricanes may be influenced by ocean–atmosphere interaction with the warm plume just prior to reaching the Caribbean. Statistical analyses of tropical Atlantic SSTs and tropical cyclone wind speeds reveal a significant and unique relationship between warm (cool) SSTs in the Amazon–Orinoco River plume and stronger (weaker) tropical cyclone wind speeds between 35° and 55°W. This implies that warmer (cooler) plume SSTs due to increased (decreased) river discharge may directly contribute to a more (less) vigorous hurricane season.
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Amatya, Devendra M., Ssegane Herbert, Carl C. Trettin und Mohammad Daud Hamidi. „Evaluation of Paired Watershed Runoff Relationships since Recovery from a Major Hurricane on a Coastal Forest—A Basis for Examining Effects of Pinus palustris Restoration on Water Yield“. Water 13, Nr. 21 (05.11.2021): 3121. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w13213121.
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The objective of this study was to test pre-treatment hydrologic calibration relationships between paired headwater watersheds (WS77 (treatment) and WS80 (control)) and explain the difference in flow, compared to earlier published data, using daily rainfall, runoff, and a water table measured during 2011–2019 in the Santee Experimental Forest in coastal South Carolina, USA. Mean monthly runoff difference between WS80 and WS77 of −6.80 mm for 2011–2019, excluding October 2015 with an extreme flow event, did not differ significantly from −8.57 mm (p = 0.27) for the 1969–1978 period or from −3.89 mm for 2004–2011, the post-Hurricane Hugo (1989) recovery period. Both the mean annual runoff coefficient and monthly runoff were non-significantly higher for WS77 than for WS80. The insignificant higher runoff by chance was attributed to WS77’s three times smaller surface storage and higher hypsometrical integral than those of WS80, but not to rainfall. The 2011–2019 geometric mean regression-based monthly runoff calibration relationship, excluding the October 2015 runoff, did not differ from the relationship for the post-Hugo recovery period, indicating complete recovery of the forest stand by 2011. The 2011–2019 pre-treatment regression relationship, which was not affected by periodic prescribed burning on WS77, was significant and predictable, providing a basis for quantifying longleaf pine restoration effects on runoff later in the future. However, the relationship will have to be used cautiously when extrapolating for extremely large flow events that exceed its flow bounds.
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Paul, Srikanto, und Hatim Sharif. „Analysis of Damage Caused by Hydrometeorological Disasters in Texas, 1960–2016“. Geosciences 8, Nr. 10 (20.10.2018): 384. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8100384.
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Property damages caused by hydrometeorological disasters in Texas during the period 1960–2016 totaled $54.2 billion with hurricanes, tropical storms, and hail accounting for 56%, followed by flooding and severe thunderstorms responsible for 24% of the total damages. The current study provides normalized trends to support the assertion that the increase in property damage is a combined contribution of stronger disasters as predicted by climate change models and increases in urban development in risk prone regions such as the Texas Gulf Coast. A comparison of the temporal distribution of damages normalized by population and GDP resulted in a less statistically significant increasing trend per capita. Seasonal distribution highlights spring as the costliest season (March, April and May) while the hurricane season (June through November) is well aligned with the months of highest property damage. Normalization of property damage by GDP during 2001–2016 showed Dallas as the only metropolitan statistical area (MSA) with a significant increasing trend of the 25 MSAs in Texas. Spatial analysis of property damage per capita highlighted the regions that are at greater risk during and after a major disaster given their limited economic resources compared to more urbanized regions. Variation in the causes of damage (wind or water) and types of damage that a “Hurricane” can produce was investigated using Hazus model simulation. A comparison of published damage estimates at time of occurrence with simulation outputs for Hurricanes Carla, 1961; Alicia, 1983; and Ike, 2008 based on 2010 building exposure highlighted the impact of economic growth, susceptibility of wood building types, and the predominant cause of damage. Carla and Ike simulation models captured less than 50% of their respective estimates reported by other sources suggesting a broad geographical zone of damage with flood damage making a significant contribution. Conversely, the model damage estimates for Alicia are 50% higher than total damage estimates that were reported at the time of occurrence suggesting a substantial increase in building exposure susceptible to wind damage in the modeled region from 1983 – 2010.
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Hernández Ayala, José Javier, und Rafael Méndez-Tejeda. „The Extremely Active 2020 Hurricane Season in the North Atlantic and Its Relation to Climate Variability and Change“. Atmosphere 13, Nr. 12 (23.11.2022): 1945. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos13121945.
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The 2020 hurricane season in the North Atlantic basin was the most active on record, with 30 named tropical cyclones. In this study, climate trends in oceanic and atmospheric parameters (including the sea surface temperatures, ocean heat content, cloud cover, mid-level humidity, vertical wind shear, and sea level pressure) were used to model the tropical cyclone, hurricane, and major hurricane frequency in the post-satellite era (1966–2020). The relationships between storm frequency and climate variability factors (including the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic Meridional Mode) were also examined. This was performed to determine the factors that exerted the greatest influence on the most active hurricane seasons on record. Mann–Kendall trend tests, Pearson’s correlations tests, stepwise Poisson linear regression models and spatial analysis techniques were used to identify the climate change and variability factors that best explained the tropical cyclone frequency in the North Atlantic. Our results show that hyperactive hurricane seasons, such as that of 2020, tend to be associated with higher cloud cover development, lower sea level pressure patterns, higher sea surface temperatures, positive phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Meridional Mode, and weaker wind shear environments. Seasons with more major hurricanes had higher ocean heat contents and weaker wind shear environments. The 2020 and 2005 seasons had similar cloud cover and sea level pressure patterns, yet the wind shear was lower in 2020 than in 2005, which was associated with La Niña dominant conditions that could explain why 2020 surpassed 2005 in the total number of storms.
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Ingwersen, Moritz. „Environmental Catastrophe as Morphogenesis: Inhuman Transformations in Ballard’s Climate Novels“. Humanities 8, Nr. 1 (09.03.2019): 52. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/h8010052.
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This paper offers a discussion of J. G. Ballard’s first four novels, The Wind From Nowhere (1962), The Drowned World (1962), The Drought (1965), and The Crystal World (1966) that centers on their portrayal of environmental transformation. Drawing on revised conceptualizations of the second law of thermodynamics and recent materialist scholarship, I illustrate how Ballard invokes material transformations that are ambivalently coded as terminal stasis and morphogenesis. In anticipations of the paradigm of the Anthropocene and ecocritical approaches to global climate change, Ballard’s novels re-embed the human in an ecology of inhuman forces and modes of self-organization that radically challenge entrenched ontological divisions and systemic boundaries. Particular attention is paid to the ways in which emergent structures, such as hurricanes and crystals identify his landscapes as dissipative systems far from equilibrium and rife with potential for the spontaneous generation of form. This resonance with scientific frameworks reveals itself in poetic registers that parallelize metaphors of life and death, and hinge on an estrangement of not only landscape, but also temporality, thus literalizing what it might mean to understand the human as a geological subject in the age of the Anthropocene.
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Wolfe, Mikael. „“A Revolution Is a Force More Powerful Than Nature”: Extreme Weather and the Cuban Revolution, 1959–64“. Environmental History 25, Nr. 3 (01.06.2020): 469–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/envhis/emaa004.
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Abstract This article examines how the severe drought of 1961–62 and the fury of Hurricane Flora in October 1963 influenced the Cuban Revolution socioeconomically and geopolitically in the crucial first five years of Fidel Castro’s consolidation of power. Based on extensive research in US and Cuban newspapers and journals, declassified US government documents, the speeches, interviews, and writings of Cuban revolutionaries and foreign advisers, oral histories of hurricane survivors, and secondary literature, this article employs an environmental history approach to show that the governments and media of both Cuba and the United States perceived environmental and geopolitical factors as being intertwined when explaining Cuba’s socioeconomic travails. Although weather events alone did not determine the progression of the Cuban Revolution, their varied effects nevertheless shaped the formative years of the revolution by influencing Cold War-era national development in ways that scholars of early revolutionary Cuba have largely overlooked.
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Atwater, B. F., Z. Fuentes, R. B. Halley, U. S. Ten Brink und M. P. Tuttle. „Effects of 2010 Hurricane Earl amidst geologic evidence for greater overwash at Anegada, British Virgin Islands“. Advances in Geosciences 38 (07.03.2014): 21–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-38-21-2014.
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Abstract. A post-hurricane survey of a Caribbean island affords comparisons with geologic evidence for greater overwash at the same place. This comparison, though of limited application to other places, helps calibrate coastal geology for assessment of earthquake and tsunami potential along the Antilles Subduction Zone. The surveyed island, Anegada, is 120 km south of the Puerto Rico Trench and is near the paths of hurricanes Donna (1960) and Earl (2010), which were at or near category 4 when at closest approach. The survey focused on Earl's geologic effects, related them to the surge from Hurricane Donna, and compared them further with erosional and depositional signs of southward overwash from the Atlantic Ocean that dates to 1200–1450 AD and to 1650–1800 AD. The main finding is that the geologic effects of these earlier events dwarf those of the recent hurricanes. Hurricane Earl's geologic effects at Anegada, observed mainly in 2011, were limited to wrack deposition along many of the island's shores and salt ponds, accretion of small washover (spillover) fans on the south shore, and the suspension and deposition of microbial material from interior salt ponds. Earl's most widespread deposit at Anegada, the microbial detritus, was abundantly juxtaposed with evidence for catastrophic overwash in prior centuries. The microbial detritus formed an extensive coating up to 2 cm thick that extended into breaches in beach-ridge plains of the island's north shore, onto playas that are underlain by a sand-and-shell sheet that extends as much as 1.5 km southward from the north shore, and among southward-strewn limestone boulders pendant to outcrops as much as 1 km inland. Earl's spillover fans also contrast with a sand-and-shell sheet, which was dated previously to 1650–1800, by being limited to the island's south shore and by extending inland a few tens of meters at most. These findings complement those reported in this issue by Michaela Spiske and Robert Halley (Spiske and Halley, 2014), who studied a coral-rubble ridge that lines part of Anegada's north shore. Spiske and Halley attribute the ridge to storms that were larger than Earl. But they contrast the ridge with coral boulders that were scattered hundreds of meters inland by overwash in 1200–1450.
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Oakley, Bryan A. „Storm Driven Migration of the Napatree Barrier, Rhode Island, USA“. Geosciences 11, Nr. 8 (05.08.2021): 330. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geosciences11080330.
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Napatree Point, an isolated barrier in southern Rhode Island, provides a case study of barrier spit migration via storm driven overwash and washover fan migration. Documented shoreline changes using historical surveys and vertical aerial photographs show that the barrier had little in the way of net change in position between 1883 and 1939, including the impact of the 1938 hurricane. The barrier retreated rapidly between 1945 and 1975, driven by both tropical and extra-tropical storms. The shoreline position has been largely static since 1975. The removal of the foredune during the 1938 hurricane facilitated landward shoreline migration in subsequent lower intensity storms. Dune recovery following the 1962 Ash Wednesday storm has been allowed due to limited overwash and barrier migration over the last several decades. Shoreline change rates during the period from 1945–1975 were more than double the rate of shoreline change between 1939 and 2014 and triple the rate between 1883 and 2014, exceeding the positional uncertainty of these shoreline pairs. The long-term shoreline change rates used to calculate coastal setbacks in Rhode Island likely underestimate the potential for rapid shoreline retreat over shorter time periods, particularly in a cluster of storm activity. While sea-level rise has increased since 1975, the barrier has not migrated, highlighting the importance of storms in barrier migration.
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Tan'shyna, A. „KHARKIV: “Hurricane-3”“. East European Journal of Physics 3, Nr. 4 (10.03.2017): 83–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.26565/2312-4334-2016-4-10.
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Посвящается светлой памяти В. Т. Толока
В 1960-м Игорь Васильевич Курчатов поручил молодому харьковскому физику Владимиру Тарасовичу Толоку руководство научной программой по разработке основ управляемого термоядерного реактора стеллараторного типа. По этой программе в Харьковском физико-техническом институте была создана единственная в Украине мощная экспериментальная база для актуальных исследований термоядерной энергетики и сформирована харьковская школа плазмистов-термоядерщиков.В 70-х гг. по инициативе и непосредственном участии В. Т. Толока получили широкое развитие исследования в области неравновесной плазмохимии высоких энергий, которые привели к созданию нового прогрессивного направления в плазменной технологии – получение новых материалов на атомно-ионном уровне в установках «Булат».
К 90-й годовщине со времени рождения члена-корреспондента НАН Украины В. Т. Толока
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Vecchi, Gabriel A., Ming Zhao, Hui Wang, Gabriele Villarini, Anthony Rosati, Arun Kumar, Isaac M. Held und Richard Gudgel. „Statistical–Dynamical Predictions of Seasonal North Atlantic Hurricane Activity“. Monthly Weather Review 139, Nr. 4 (01.04.2011): 1070–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010mwr3499.1.
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Abstract Skillfully predicting North Atlantic hurricane activity months in advance is of potential societal significance and a useful test of our understanding of the factors controlling hurricane activity. In this paper, a statistical–dynamical hurricane forecasting system, based on a statistical hurricane model, with explicit uncertainty estimates, and built from a suite of high-resolution global atmospheric dynamical model integrations spanning a broad range of climate states is described. The statistical model uses two climate predictors: the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical North Atlantic and SST averaged over the global tropics. The choice of predictors is motivated by physical considerations, as well as the results of high-resolution hurricane modeling and statistical modeling of the observed record. The statistical hurricane model is applied to a suite of initialized dynamical global climate model forecasts of SST to predict North Atlantic hurricane frequency, which peaks during the August–October season, from different starting dates. Retrospective forecasts of the 1982–2009 period indicate that skillful predictions can be made from as early as November of the previous year; that is, skillful forecasts for the coming North Atlantic hurricane season could be made as the current one is closing. Based on forecasts initialized between November 2009 and March 2010, the model system predicts that the upcoming 2010 North Atlantic hurricane season will likely be more active than the 1982–2009 climatology, with the forecasts initialized in March 2010 predicting an expected hurricane count of eight and a 50% probability of counts between six (the 1966–2009 median) and nine.
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Klotzbach, Philip J. „Revised Prediction of Seasonal Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity from 1 August“. Weather and Forecasting 22, Nr. 5 (01.10.2007): 937–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf1045.1.
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Abstract Predictions of the remainder of the season’s Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity from 1 August have been issued by Gray and his colleagues at the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University since 1984. The original 1 August prediction scheme utilized several predictors, including measures of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), West African rainfall, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and the sea level pressure anomaly and upper-tropospheric zonal wind anomalies in the Caribbean basin. The recent failure of the West African rainfall and QBO relationships with Atlantic hurricanes has led to a general degradation of the original 1 August forecast scheme in recent years. It was decided to revise the scheme using only surface data. The development of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis has provided a vast wealth of globally gridded meteorological and oceanic data from 1948 to the present. In addition, other datasets have been extended back even further (to 1900), which allows for a large independent dataset. These longer-period datasets allow for an extended period of testing of the new statistical forecast scheme. A new prediction scheme has been developed on data from 1949 to 1989 and then tested on two independent datasets. One of these datasets is the 16-yr period from 1990 to 2005, and the other dataset is from 1900 to 1948. This allows for an investigation of the statistical significance over various time periods. The statistical scheme shows remarkable stability over an entire century. The combination of these four predictors explains between 45% and 60% of the variance in net tropical cyclone activity over the following separate time periods: 1900–48, 1949–89, 1949–2005, and 1900–2005. The forecast scheme also shows considerable skill as a potential predictor for giving the probabilities of United States landfall. Large differences in U.S. major hurricane landfall are also observed between forecasts that call for active seasons compared with those that call for inactive seasons.
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Bratu, M., und C. Nichita. „Review Article: Explosive cyclogenesis over the south-east of Romania 2–3 December 2012“. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions 3, Nr. 5 (22.05.2015): 3449–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-3449-2015.
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Abstract. This paper is devoted to the study of the synoptic-dynamical conditions that contributed to the development of a rare explosive cyclogenesis event that occurred at the beginning of the winter from 2012 to 2013 in south-eastern Romania, more precisely between 2 and 3 December 2012. The minimum sea level pressure observed was 980.2 hPa, the lowest ever observed record for the surface of the Sulina weather station, and also over the western side of the Black Sea during the of period 1961–2000 and 1965–2004. It was found that the cyclone was not a regular one, but a real "meteorological bomb" one, where the central pressure at sea level recorded an extraordinary decrease at about 32.3 hPa in 24 h, equivalent with 1.7 B (Bergeron unit). Compared to the 20th century storms named Lothar and Martin (level 2 and 1 on the hurricane scale) which devastated western and central Europe in December 1999, this case of explosive cyclogenesis can be considered one of the most extreme for our area, from both a meteorological view as well as its effects.
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MONTEITH, SHARON. „Hurricane Katrina: Five Years After Introduction“. Journal of American Studies 44, Nr. 3 (August 2010): 475–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0021875810001180.
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As long ago as The Other America (1962), Michael Harrington asked, “How long shall we ignore this undeveloped nation in our midst? How long shall we look the other way while our fellow human beings suffer?”1 Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath brought into plain sight the plight of the poor, with Michael Brown, then director of FEMA, admitting sombrely at the Superdome that he was seeing people he never knew existed. The black poor were drawn forcefully into the national consciousness, for a while at least, as they had not been during the 2004 presidential election when it was discovered that many electronic voting machines had not found their way into New Orleans to register the votes of one of the largest blocs of African Americans.
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Briggs, William M. „On the Changes in the Number and Intensity of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones“. Journal of Climate 21, Nr. 6 (15.03.2008): 1387–402. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2007jcli1871.1.
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Abstract Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones, the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes, and the rate at which hurricanes became category 4+ storms in the North Atlantic using data from 1966 to 2006 and from 1975 to 2006. It is found that, controlling for the cold tongue index (CTI), North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAOI), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), it is improbable that the number of tropical cyclones has linearly increased since 1966, but that the number has increased since 1975. The differences between these two results have to do with the numbers of storms at the start of these two periods: it was easier to say a linear increase was present starting from circa 1975 since the storms in that period were at a low point. The rate at which storms become hurricanes appears to have decreased, and the rate at which category 4+ storms evolved from hurricanes appears to have increased. Both of these results are also dependent on the starting year. Storm intensity was also investigated by measuring the distribution of individual storm lifetimes in days, storm track length, and Emanuel’s power dissipation index. Little evidence was found that mean individual storm intensity has changed through time, but it is noted that the variability of intensity has certainly increased. Any increase in cumulative yearly storm intensity and potential destructiveness is therefore due to the increasing number of storms and not due to any increase in the intensity of individual storms. CTI was not always significant, but lower CTIs were associated with more storms, higher rates of conversion, and higher intensities. NAOI was only weakly associated: the effect was negative for the number of storms, the rate of hurricanes evolving from storms, and intensity, but it was positive for the rate of category 4+ storms evolving from hurricanes. AMO was rarely significant except in explaining the number of storms using the 1966–2006 data. Its direction was always positive as expected; however, higher values of the AMO were associated with more storms, higher rates of conversion, and higher intensities.
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Vecchi, Gabriel A., Rym Msadek, Whit Anderson, You-Soon Chang, Thomas Delworth, Keith Dixon, Rich Gudgel et al. „Multiyear Predictions of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency: Promise and Limitations“. Journal of Climate 26, Nr. 15 (26.07.2013): 5337–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00464.1.
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Abstract Retrospective predictions of multiyear North Atlantic Ocean hurricane frequency are explored by applying a hybrid statistical–dynamical forecast system to initialized and noninitialized multiyear forecasts of tropical Atlantic and tropical-mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from two global climate model forecast systems. By accounting for impacts of initialization and radiative forcing, retrospective predictions of 5- and 9-yr mean tropical Atlantic hurricane frequency show significant correlations relative to a null hypothesis of zero correlation. The retrospective correlations are increased in a two-model average forecast and by using a lagged-ensemble approach, with the two-model ensemble decadal forecasts of hurricane frequency over 1961–2011 yielding correlation coefficients that approach 0.9. These encouraging retrospective multiyear hurricane predictions, however, should be interpreted with care: although initialized forecasts have higher nominal skill than uninitialized ones, the relatively short record and large autocorrelation of the time series limits confidence in distinguishing between the skill caused by external forcing and that added by initialization. The nominal increase in correlation in the initialized forecasts relative to the uninitialized experiments is caused by improved representation of the multiyear tropical Atlantic SST anomalies. The skill in the initialized forecasts comes in large part from the persistence of a mid-1990s shift by the initialized forecasts, rather than from predicting its evolution. Predicting shifts like that observed in 1994/95 remains a critical issue for the success of multiyear forecasts of Atlantic hurricane frequency. The retrospective forecasts highlight the possibility that changes in observing system impact forecast performance.
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Ouyang, Ying, Johnny M. Grace, Prem B. Parajuli und Peter V. Caldwell. „Impacts of Multiple Hurricanes and Tropical Storms on Watershed Hydrological Processes in the Florida Panhandle“. Climate 10, Nr. 3 (15.03.2022): 42. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli10030042.
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Hurricanes and tropical storms (TS) are infrequent but disastrous events to human lives, social activities, and terrestrial ecosystems in coastal regions. Using the Environmental Protection Agency (US-EPA)’s Hydrologic and Water Quality System (HAWQS) model, principal component analysis (PCA), and principal factor analysis (PFA), we estimated impacts of multiple hurricanes and TS on hydrological processes in agricultural and forested watersheds. Five hurricanes and four TS that passed near or through the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River basin (ACFRB) of the Florida panhandle from 1966 to 2018 were selected to estimate their impacts on rainfall, potential evapotranspiration (PET), evapotranspiration (ET), soil water percolation, surface runoff, stream discharge, groundwater recharge, and water yield (WYLD). Simulations showed that the category of hurricanes was not highly related to the amounts of rainfall, runoff, discharge, and WYLD. Based on PCA and PFA, PET and ET were highly and negatively, rainfall and discharge were highly and positively, and percolation, runoff, groundwater recharge and WYLD were moderately and positively affected by the hurricanes and TS at the ACFRB in the recent 50 years. This study provides water resource managers with critical insights into how multiple hurricanes and TS affected hydrological processes in agricultural and forested watersheds of the coastal region.
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Johnsen, Kurt H., John R. Butnor, John S. Kush, Ron C. Schmidtling und C. Dana Nelson. „Hurricane Katrina Winds Damaged Longleaf Pine Less than Loblolly Pine“. Southern Journal of Applied Forestry 33, Nr. 4 (01.11.2009): 178–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/sjaf/33.4.178.
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Abstract Some evidence suggests that longleaf pine might be more tolerant of high winds than either slash pine (Pinus elliotii Englem.) or loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.). We studied wind damage to these three pine species in a common garden experiment in southeast Mississippi following Hurricane Katrina, a very large, Category 3 hurricane that directly affected the stand in August 2005. The experiment, a factorial arrangement of silvicultural treatments established in 1960, included 120 plots of 100 trees each, covering about 22 ha. Following the hurricane, dbh was measured on all trees, and each tree was rated with respect to mortality from wind damage. Longleaf pine suffered less mortality (7%) than the other two species (slash pine, 14%; loblolly pine, 26%), although the differences in mortality were statistically significant only between longleaf pine and loblolly pine. Longleaf pine lost significantly fewer stems per hectare and less basal area than the two other species. Differences in mortality among species were not a function of mean plot tree height or plot density. Our analyses indicate that longleaf pine is more resistant to wind damage than loblolly pine.
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Villarini, Gabriele, und Gabriel A. Vecchi. „North Atlantic Power Dissipation Index (PDI) and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE): Statistical Modeling and Sensitivity to Sea Surface Temperature Changes“. Journal of Climate 25, Nr. 2 (15.01.2012): 625–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00146.1.
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Abstract This study focuses on the statistical modeling of the power dissipation index (PDI) and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) for the North Atlantic basin over the period 1949–2008, which are metrics routinely used to assess tropical storm activity, and their sensitivity to sea surface temperature (SST) changes. To describe the variability exhibited by the data, four different statistical distributions are considered (gamma, Gumbel, lognormal, and Weibull), and tropical Atlantic and tropical mean SSTs are used as predictors. Model selection, both in terms of significant covariates and their functional relation to the parameters of the statistical distribution, is performed using two penalty criteria. Two different SST datasets are considered [the Met Office’s Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset (HadISSTv1) and NOAA’s extended reconstructed SST dataset (ERSSTv3b)] to examine the sensitivity of the results to the input data. The statistical models presented in this study are able to well describe the variability in the observations according to several goodness-of-fit diagnostics. Both tropical Atlantic and tropical mean SSTs are significant predictors, independently of the SST input data, penalty criterion, and tropical storm activity metric. The application of these models to centennial reconstructions and seasonal forecasting is illustrated. The sensitivity of North Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency, duration, and intensity is examined for both uniform and nonuniform SST changes. Under uniform SST warming, these results indicate that there is a modest sensitivity of intensity, and a decrease in tropical storm and hurricane frequencies. On the other hand, increases in tropical Atlantic SST relative to the tropical mean SST suggest an increase in the intensity and frequency of North Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes.
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Dunion, Jason P., Christopher W. Landsea, Samuel H. Houston und Mark D. Powell. „A Reanalysis of the Surface Winds for Hurricane Donna of 1960“. Monthly Weather Review 131, Nr. 9 (September 2003): 1992–2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<1992:arotsw>2.0.co;2.
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Diaz, MD, MPH&TM, DrPH, James H. „The impact of hurricanes and flooding disasters on hymenopterid-inflicted injuries“. American Journal of Disaster Medicine 2, Nr. 5 (01.09.2007): 257–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.5055/ajdm.2007.0034.
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Insect bites and stings, often complicated by allergic reactions or skin infections with community-acquired pathogens, are common sources of morbidity following hurricanes and flooding disasters. The hymenopterids are the most commonly stinging arthropods to cause allergic reactions, and include bees, wasps, and ants. To assess the evolving epidemiology of hymenopteridinflicted injuries, and the impact of hurricanes and flooding disasters on hymenopterid-inflicted injuries in the United States, an epidemiological analysis of the scientific literature on hymenopterid stings and allergic sting reactions was conducted by MEDLINE search, 1966-2006. The increasing incidence of hymenopteridinflicted injuries following hurricanes and flooding disasters was described. Common immunological reactions to hymenopterid-inflicted injuries were stratified by clinical severity and outcome. Current recommendations for management, prevention, and prophylaxis of hymenopterid-inflicted injuries were presented. Hymenopterid stings and allergic reactions remain common indications for emergency department visits, especially following hurricanes and flooding disasters. Unrecognized anaphylactic reactions to hymenopterid stings remain significant causes of unanticipated deaths outdoors in young people. Disaster planners and managers are obliged to alert regional healthcare providers of the increased risks of hymenopteridinflicted injuries following flooding disasters and to assure that emergency drug formularies are properly stocked to treat hymenopterid-inflicted injuries.
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Roubion-Johnson, Denise, und Health Program. „Effects of Educating Women on Breast Cancer and Early Detection Post-Katrina“. Clinical Scholars Review 5, Nr. 1 (April 2012): 14–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1891/1939-2095.5.1.14.
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Five years post-Hurricane Katrina, an increasing number of women in New Orleans have been d iagnosed with late stage invasive breast cancer despite the availability of a free breast clinic and mammography screening. Presentation of late-stage breast cancer limits treatment options and poor outcomes are more likely. An evidence-based educational program was provided in a relaxed informal setting to low-income women to increase their awareness of the importance of early detection and screening for breast cancer through the use of screening mammograms. Educating this underserved population of women on the importance of early detection of breast cancer and mammography screening sought to improve patient awareness and potentially increase the use of screening practices.
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Morris, Andrew. „Hurricane Camille and the New Politics of Federal Disaster Relief, 1965–1970“. Journal of Policy History 26, Nr. 3 (09.06.2014): 406–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0898030614000189.
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Changnon, Stanley A. „Characteristics of severe Atlantic hurricanes in the United States: 1949–2006“. Natural Hazards 48, Nr. 3 (01.07.2008): 329–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9265-z.
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Rubião, André, Bernardo Gomes Barbosa Nogueira und Bruno Viera Marques. „PROTEST SONGS E A BUSCA POR DIREITOS FUNDAMENTAIS“. Revista Direitos Culturais 18, Nr. 44 (30.05.2023): 97–111. http://dx.doi.org/10.31512/rdc.v18i44.1214.
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Este artigo visa refletir sobre a maneira como a obra músico-literária “Hurricane” (1976), de Bob Dylan, influenciou o percurso jurídico do caso do boxeador americano Rubin Carter, condenado à prisão perpétua, por homicídio triplamente qualificado, em 1966, e solto 19 anos depois por falta de provas. Pretende-se avaliar como a letra e a melodia criadas por Dylan, inseridas no movimento das protest songs, serviram como instrumento para a reforma da decisão jurídica. O estudo se sustenta na corrente metodológica do direito na literatura, compreendido dentro do movimento macro do law and art, com base na consulta bibliográfica e na técnica de reconstrução de processos sociais. O artigo busca então responder à seguinte pergunta: como a canção “Hurricane”, a partir de uma rede heterogênea que envolveu a imprensa, outros artistas, movimentos sociais e atores jurídicos, contribuiu para reformar a condenação de Carter à prisão perpétua? Com esta abordagem, que transita pelo universo da sociologia jurídica, espera-se mostrar como as manifestações culturais, atuando por meio de “signos” e de forma “rizomática”, podem influenciar o campo do Direito, na busca pela concretização de garantias fundamentais.