Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „History, 1792“

Nous célébrons le bicentenaire de la Révolution française, mais nous ne savons pas quand la Révolution s’est terminée. En 1789, avec la formation de l’Assemblée nationale? 1791, avec la première Constitution? 1792, avec la République? 1794, avec le renversement des Jacobins? 1795, avec la création du Directoire? 1799, avec l’avènement de Bonaparte – « Citoyens, la Révolution est fixée aux principes qui l’ont commencée : elle est finie », proclament les Consuls de la République dans la présentation de la Constitution du 13 décembre 1799 aux Français.

El presente artículo se propone explorar las diferencias teórico-políticas entre el republicanismo clásico y el liberalismo moderno a través del análisis de los conceptos de Estado de derecho y de Estado libre tal y como fueron desarrollados por el pensamiento constitucional durante la Revolución francesa. El análisis comenzará por precisar los términos en los que el pensamiento jurídico ha interpretado la carta de 1791 como fundadora del Estado de derecho en Francia. A continuación, se repasarán las circunstancias que condujeron al naufragio de la Constitución de 1791, para proceder luego a examinar cómo las facciones radicales lidiaron con la experiencia política de 1789-1792. Finalmente, se analizarán los proyectos constitucionales de 1793 como respuesta a los problemas identificados por los radicales como causales de la crisis política del verano de 1792 que había culminado con el asalto popular a las Tullerías.

ABSTRACTConsidered by many of his contemporaries in 1792–3 as the saviour of the British state, at his subsequent trial in 1796, Reeves was charged by the house of commons with seditious libel. The case offers an opportunity to scrutinize the current revisionist position which claims that loyalist values and ideologies, such as those promulgated by Reeves and his Association, were widely accepted and functioned as a natural bulwark against revolutionary principles and the destabilizing of the British state. But the publication of Reeves's ultra-tory tract Thoughts on the English government in 1795 not only provided the Foxite minority with a focus for its parliamentary attack on the 1795 Treason and Sedition bills, but, because of the overwhelming condemnation of the tract, forced Pitt publicly to repudiate Reeves and the entire ultra-tory position. Indeed, it is argued here that Reeves's church and king loyalist crusade of 1792–3 had been tolerated by Pitt's ministry merely as a convenient means of political intimidation and found little resonance in the political culture of the house of commons.

Magdalena Rudenschöld (born 1766, died 1823) was a woman in Swedish history, who lived a turbulent life. As a young woman she was employed at the Swedish court and got to know the king of that time, Gustaf III, and she became the mistress of one of his closest deputies, Gustaf Mauritz Armfelt. After the killing of Gustaf III, a temporary government was formed. This was a regency that was put there on behalf of Prince Gustaf Adolf, since he was not yet of age to run the country. The commission to conduct this temporary government was given to Duke Carl, who was the dead king’s brother. King Gustavus III’s former employees and Officers were after the king’s death, opposed by the temporary government, and they were moved to other assignations. Among these former employees and Officers a discontent arose and a few of them, among others Rudenschöld and her friend Armfelt, started to discuss and plan for a change in the governance of Sweden. The planning was mostly done through correspondence. Several of those who took part in this correspondence, was later sentenced for trying to overthrow the Swedish government. One of the sentenced people was Magdalena Rudenschöld. The purpose of this treatise, has been to examine the role and actions of Magdalena Rudenschöld in the Armfelt conspiracy and also to compare the court records to the sentence she received. Rudenschöld was convicted of treason against the king and kingdom. The results show that Rudenschöld’s conviction for being part of treason against king and kingdom was correct, and that she had made no attempt to stop the conspiracy plans. On her part she had mediated letters between people and she had offered to help, for instance by travelling to Russia to speak for their cause. Rudenschöld’s penalty was hard. She was imprisoned for about two years, after having been publicly pilloried. As she was released from prison, Duke Carl provided her a property on the Swedish island Gotland, and she was not permitted to leave it for still some time. The fact that two members of the temporary government was part of the court that sentenced her, probably contributed to the harsh punishment. However, it has to be born in mind that this was how the judicature was organised at the time being. The treatment of Rudenschöld upset the public at the time of the trials - a lady-in-waiting who were pilloried and ended up in prison was very unusual. The fact that the affair was given characteristics of romanticism as Rudenschöld’s intimacy with the married man Armfelt was made public, and that the affair is even more complicated since the conductor of the temporary government - Duke Carl - previously had been in love with Rudenschöld, makes this story linger for posterity.

The aim of this dissertation is to present a composite picture and evaluation of the Scots College Paris from the establishment of a Prefecture Apostolic in Scotland in 1653, until the eclipse of the college in 1792. In order to show the Mission needs that a Scottish college would have to meet, this study began with a preliminary survey of aspects of Catholicism from the creation of the Jesuit mission in 1584 until the appointment of a secular Prefect in 1653, followed by an exposition of what little is known about the first foundation of the College (1325-1603) and the first fifty years of the second foundation (1603-1653), This review showed that the Scots College in Paris was in an excellent position to further the aims of the Scottish Catholic Mission. The history of the college was then examined chronologically by principalships, but it was found necessary to devote separate chapters to three topics, Jacobitism, Jansenism, and the College archives. The investigation indicated that the Scots College Paris had given considerable beneficial service to the Scottish Catholic Mission, but preoccupation with the Jacobite cause, and a reactionary stance as regards the Constitution Unigenitus deflected the staff from the task of preparing students for the priesthood and ultimately led to baneful consequences for Scottish Catholicism. Quarrels with the Jesuits and internal quarrels amongst the secular clergy contributed to the decline of the college. The college did, however, assist in the education of about seventy priests, provided three of our earliest Bishops, played a major role in the establishment of seminaries on Scottish soil, and built up a library and archives of which even the remnant is an invaluable resource for historians.

This dissertation offers an outlined proposal and a model for practicing queer oral history—a nuancing of oral history praxis. Queer oral history is rooted in performance studies’ call to consider everyday texts alongside Dwight Conquergood’s (1985) articulations of ethical and dialogic performance of the other. I propose that queer oral history exists as an alternative praxis to traditional oral history; in order for this distinction to emerge, a practitioner must accept two charges. The first is a commitment to destabilizing oral history through the inclusion of other diverse methodological practices. Further, the researcher must welcome the ethical imperative to reflexively question subjectivity through their own role in constructing an oral history. Queer oral history demands of its practitioners a different set of goals that grow from traditional oral history, but also carefully complicate the practice of oral history as a methodology in order to address the in-between role of the subject-researcher. This placement within the gaps—the in-between—renders queer oral history theoretically queer, opening up possibilities beyond simply an oral history about queer themes. Because of its focus on commitments as a way to lead practice, queer oral history could prove useful for other person-based qualitative research methods. In order to propose queer oral history, this document traces one specific performance—Bless Our Hearts: An Oral History of the Queer South—from intellectual inception through scripting, staging, performance, and reperformance. Offering theoretical precepts, a completed script, and deep discussions of choices in scripting and embodiment, this dissertation offers a model that shows one queer oral history—about the intersections of queer and Southern identities—as it moves from interview process to complete performance project.

From 1792 to 1795, the war absorbed half of the French state budget at a time when the fiscal situation was disastrous. The political authorities decided to set up a managed economy to support production, supply the armies and towns and limit the fall in the scrip. Under the authority of the comité de salut public, an alternative practice was organised - payment in kind: luxury manufactured goods in exchange for raw materials and necessities. The aim is to understand the logic at play: the role of neutral powers and French traders, the need for supplies, the unexpected revaluation of a specific sector of the French economy (luxury goods), and the balance between ideology and political pragmatism.

В старинном уральском городе Невьянске находится уникальный памятник истории и архитектуры - Наклонная башня Демидовых. Построенная в 1722-1732 годах по приказу заводчика Акинфия Демидова она является в настоящее время является официальным символом города. Многофункциональное, сложное сооружение, башня, уже давно стала объектом множества легенд и преданий. В настоящее время она является смысловым центром историко-архитектурного комплекса, созданного на территории Демидовского завода, превратившись в культурный и туристский бренд Невьянска. In the ancient Ural city of Nevyansk there is a unique monument of history and architecture - the Demidov Leaning Tower. Built in 1722-1732 by order of the breeder Akinfiy Demidov, it is currently the official symbol of the city. A multifunctional, complex structure, the tower, has long been the object of many legends and legends. Currently, it is the semantic center of the historical and architectural complex created on the territory of the Demidov factory, having turned into a cultural and tourist brand of Nevyansk.

In this study, I review the immediate antecedents of the civil transition as the most profound development. The codification attempts of the Enlightenment of the 1790s and the liberalism of the 1830s and 1840s are the focal points of my doctoral research. In order to drafting bills to reform the feudal state based on customary law and privileges without changing the basic public law framework, nine so-called national regular committees were set forth by Article 67 of Act 1791. The committees completed their work and sent their drafts, known as so-called operatives, to the king between 1792 and 1795. After all, the completed operatives were not put on the agenda of Parliament due to changes in the domestic and foreign policy status quo. They only emerged from the archives of the Chancellery thanks to the committees set up by Article 8 of Act 1827. These committees were responsible for reviewing the “forgotten” operatives, which were finally printed and sent to the counties for comments. The Hungarian liberal noble opposition was organised first as a movement and then as a party during these county debates (1831–1832) in order to replace the feudal system by manifesting the basic principles of the civil transition in the so-called laws of April (representation of the people, the right to private property, equality of rights, burden sharing, etc.)

Until the introduction of printing technology during the 19th century, Siamese literature was disseminated and passed on in manuscript form only. Unfavorable climatic conditions, various adverse historical events and a lack of institutions responsible for the preservation of literary manuscripts hamper modern-day scholarly efforts to reconstruct Siamese literary history. In order to broaden the evidential basis available to scholars of pre-modern Siamese literature, qualitative as well as quantitative data were drawn from inventory lists of two manuscript collections, which hitherto had been in the possession of Prince-Patriarch Phra Paramanuchit Chinorot (1790–1853) and Prince Rakronnaret (1791–1848). Despite these records’ limited number and scope, they offer valuable insights into the size and composition of two private libraries, access to ancient and contemporary literary texts, as well as into the tastes of a highly educated mid-19th-century elite readership.

в философии истории ХХ в. можно выделить двоякую тенденцию. С одной стороны, классическая философия истории подвергается радикальной критике (в немецкой философской герменевтике, французском структурализме и постструктурализме, англоязычной аналитической философии), а с другой стороны, она продолжается и развивается в различных концепциях и теориях («столкновение цивилизаций» С. Хантингтона, «конец истории» Ф. Фукуямы). Такая двойственность (критика философии истории и ее развитие) не является характеристикой только нашей современности. Выдающийся немецкий филолог и философ Фридрих Шлегель (1772–1829) в ситуации философской революции рубежа XVIII–XIX вв. постарался соединить эти две позиции в одну, что и стало предметом анализа автора статьи. in the philosophy of the history of the twentieth century, a twofold tendency can be distinguished. On the one hand, the classical philosophy of history is subjected to radical criticism (in German philosophical hermeneutics, French structuralism and poststructuralism, English-speaking analytical philosophy), and on the other hand, it continues and develops in various concepts and theories (S. Huntington's "clash of civilizations", "end of history" F. Fukuyama). Such duality (criticism of the philosophy of history and its development) is not a characteristic only of our modernity. The outstanding German philologist and philosopher Friedrich Schlegel (1772–1829), in the situation of the philosophical revolution at the turn of the 18th–19th centuries, tried to combine these two positions into one, , which became the subject of the analysis of the author of the article.

The paper outlines the history of the extraction of power from the River Derwent in Derbyshire, England, a source of abundant, reliable and vigorous water flow; and how this renewable power source provided power for the industrialization of what were formerly cottage occupations. The Romans introduced Water Wheels to Britain in the 1st century, which were used in the Derwent Valley to grind grist, mine lead, power iron forges and pump water. The prototype factories of the Industrial Revolution were built here, utilizing water power technology to drive textile mills. Cotchett’s Silk Mill, built in Derby in 1702, was followed by Lombe’s Silk Mill nearby in 1717, Then followed the cotton industry, led by Arkwright and Strutt in Cromford, the first “modern” mill, with 200 hands and round-the-clock operations, in 1771. After this success, Strutt built a larger mill in 1782 at Belper, powered by eleven 21 ft diameter water wheels. Samuel Slater, apprenticed during the building of this mill, emigrated secretly to America, where he enabled the first successful U.S cotton mill to be built in Pawtucket, R.I. The skills and traditions remain in the area, in such notable companies as Rolls-Royce and the Royal Crown Derby Porcelain works.

The US Congress codified the National Historic Preservation Act of 1966 (NHPA), the nation’s most effective cultural resources legislation to date, mostly through establishing the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP). The NHPA requires federal agencies to address their cultural resources, which are defined as any prehistoric or historic district, site, building, structure, or object. Section 110 of the NHPA requires federal agencies to inventory and evaluate their cultural resources, and Section 106 requires them to determine the effect of federal undertakings on those potentially eligible for the NRHP. Fort Hunter Liggett is in Central California, entirely within Monterey County. It was first established as the Hunter Liggett Military Reservation in 1941. The post was renamed Fort Hunter Liggett in 1975. This report provides a determination of eligibility for nine properties (Buildings 172, 179, 196, 197, 291, 2199, 723, and 914 and facilities 0301BS and radio-controlled aerial target [RCAT]) constructed between 1956 and 1972 and recommends that none are eligible under the NRHP and the California Register of Historic Resources (CRHR) criteria. Two other properties (Buildings 177 and 178) were found to be covered by the Unaccompanied Personnel Housing (UPH) Program Comment of 2006. In consultation with the California State Historic Preservation Officer (CASHPO), this work fulfills Section 110 requirements for these buildings.

Verdicts returned by modern courts of justice in the context of sovereign debt lawsuits have upheld a ratable (proportional) interpretation of so-called “pari passu” clauses in debt contracts which, literally, promise creditors they will be dealt with equitably. Such verdicts have given individual creditors the right to interfere with payments to others, in situation where the sovereign had failed to make proportional payments. Contract originalists argue that this interpretation of pari passu clauses has no historical foundation. Historically, they claim, pari passu clauses never granted individual creditors a unilateral right to block payments to other bondholders assenting to a government debt restructuring proposal. This article shows this claim is incorrect. Drawing on novel archival research, it argues that pari passu clauses find one potent historical origin in the operation of a now forgotten sovereign bankruptcy tribunal, the London stock exchange. Under the law of the stock exchange, departure from ratable payments did create a unilateral right for individual creditors to interfere with sovereign debt discharges. In fact, ratable distributions provided the touchstone for the stock exchange sanctioned sovereign debt discharge system. What is more, sophisticated contract drafters availed themselves of the logic. The result was a weaponization of pari passu clauses, and their inscription into sovereign debt covenants in the 19th century. The article concludes that the modern debate on the role of clauses in sovereign debt contracts cannot be held without thorough reconsideration of the history of sovereign bankruptcy.

This report documents the flow failure of the Las Palmas tailings dam that was induced by the 27 February 2010 Maule Chile M8.8 earthquake. The Las Palmas site is located in Central Chile in Region VII near the town of Talca. Construction of the tailings dam occurred between 1998 as part of a gold mining operation and was no longer in active use. The ground shaking from the earthquake induced liquefaction of the saturated tailings material and resulted in a flow failure that ran out upwards of 350 m, flowing downslope in two directions. This report is broken into three sections: A summary of the construction and flow failure of the Las Palmas tailings dam; Details on the field investigations at the site, including the 2010 GEER reconnaissance, 2011 litigation support [DICTUC 2012], and the recent PEER–NGL-funded 2017 investigation; and Back-analysis of the flow failure by Gebhart [2016] to estimate the residual strength. The goal of this work is to provide a “high-quality” flow-failure case history to augment the existing database. The existing database is composed of roughly thirty case histories of varying quality (e.g., Weber et al. [2015] and Kramer and Wang [2015]). Herein, the term “high-quality” means that the in situ measurements were made in a controlled and repeatable manner, and that the back-analysis of the residual strength was performed considering static and dynamic effects of the slide mass. The results from this research indicate that the median back-analyzed residual strength of the liquefied material is ~8.3 kPa (~173 psf) at a pre-earthquake vertical effective stress of 2 atm (~200 kpa or 4000 psf), which is correlated to a median SPT blow count of N1,60~2.5, a median CPT tip resistance of qc1~1.3 MPa, and a median shear-wave velocity of VS1~172 m/sec. The back analyzed residual strength has a nominal coefficient of variation of 5.5% determined using a sensitivity analysis.

Banco de la República is celebrating its 100th anniversary in 2023. This is a very significant anniversary and one that provides an opportunity to highlight the contribution the Bank has made to the country’s development. Its track record as guarantor of monetary stability has established it as the one independent state institution that generates the greatest confidence among Colombians due to its transparency, management capabilities, and effective compliance with the central banking and cultural responsibilities entrusted to it by the Constitution and the Law. On a date as important as this, the Board of Directors of Banco de la República (BDBR) pays tribute to the generations of governors and officers whose commitment and dedication have contributed to the growth of this institution.1 Banco de la República’s mandate was confirmed in the National Constitutional Assembly of 1991 where the citizens had the opportunity to elect the seventy people who would have the task of drafting a new constitution. The leaders of the three political movements with the most votes were elected as chairs to the Assembly, and this tripartite presidency reflected the plurality and the need for consensus among the different political groups to move the reform forward. Among the issues considered, the National Constitutional Assembly gave special importance to monetary stability. That is why they decided to include central banking and to provide Banco de la República with the necessary autonomy to use the instruments for which they are responsible without interference from other authorities. The constituent members understood that ensuring price stability is a state duty and that the entity responsible for this task must be enshrined in the Constitution and have the technical capability and institutional autonomy necessary to adopt the decisions they deem appropriate to achieve this fundamental objective in coordination with the general economic policy. In particular, Article 373 established that “the State, through Banco de la República, shall ensure the maintenance of the purchasing power of the currency,” a provision that coincided with the central banking system adopted by countries that have been successful in controlling inflation. In 1999, in Ruling 481, the Constitutional Court stated that “the duty to maintain the purchasing power of the currency applies to not only the monetary, credit, and exchange authority, i.e., the Board of Banco de la República, but also those who have responsibilities in the formulation and implementation of the general economic policy of the country” and that “the basic constitutional purpose of Banco de la República is the protection of a sound currency. However, this authority must take the other economic objectives of state intervention such as full employment into consideration in their decisions since these functions must be coordinated with the general economic policy.” The reforms to Banco de la República agreed upon in the Constitutional Assembly of 1991 and in Act 31/1992 can be summarized in the following aspects: i) the Bank was assigned a specific mandate: to maintain the purchasing power of the currency in coordination with the general economic policy; ii) the BDBR was designatedas the monetary, foreign exchange, and credit authority; iii) the Bank and its Board of Directors were granted a significant degree of independence from the government; iv) the Bank was prohibited from granting credit to the private sector except in the case of the financial sector; v) established that in order to grant credit to the government, the unanimous vote of its Board of Directors was required except in the case of open market transactions; vi) determined that the legislature may, in no case, order credit quotas in favor of the State or individuals; vii) Congress was appointed, on behalf of society, as the main addressee of the Bank’s reporting exercise; and viii) the responsibility for inspection, surveillance, and control over Banco de la República was delegated to the President of the Republic. The members of the National Constitutional Assembly clearly understood that the benefits of low and stable inflation extend to the whole of society and contribute mto the smooth functioning of the economic system. Among the most important of these is that low inflation promotes the efficient use of productive resources by allowing relative prices to better guide the allocation of resources since this promotes economic growth and increases the welfare of the population. Likewise, low inflation reduces uncertainty about the expected return on investment and future asset prices. This increases the confidence of economic agents, facilitates long-term financing, and stimulates investment. Since the low-income population is unable to protect itself from inflation by diversifying its assets, and a high proportion of its income is concentrated in the purchase of food and other basic goods that are generally the most affected by inflationary shocks, low inflation avoids arbitrary redistribution of income and wealth.2 Moreover, low inflation facilitates wage negotiations, creates a good labor climate, and reduces the volatility of employment levels. Finally, low inflation helps to make the tax system more transparent and equitable by avoiding the distortions that inflation introduces into the value of assets and income that make up the tax base. From the monetary authority’s point of view, one of the most relevant benefits of low inflation is the credibility that economic agents acquire in inflation targeting, which turns it into an effective nominal anchor on price levels. Upon receiving its mandate, and using its autonomy, Banco de la República began to announce specific annual inflation targets as of 1992. Although the proposed inflation targets were not met precisely during this first stage, a downward trend in inflation was achieved that took it from 32.4% in 1990 to 16.7% in 1998. At that time, the exchange rate was kept within a band. This limited the effectiveness of monetary policy, which simultaneously sought to meet an inflation target and an exchange rate target. The Asian crisis spread to emerging economies and significantly affected the Colombian economy. The exchange rate came under strong pressure to depreciate as access to foreign financing was cut off under conditions of a high foreign imbalance. This, together with the lack of exchange rate flexibility, prevented a countercyclical monetary policy and led to a 4.2% contraction in GDP that year. In this context of economic slowdown, annual inflation fell to 9.2% at the end of 1999, thus falling below the 15% target set for that year. This episode fully revealed how costly it could be, in terms of economic activity, to have inflation and exchange rate targets simultaneously. Towards the end of 1999, Banco de la República announced the adoption of a new monetary policy regime called the Inflation Targeting Plan. This regime, known internationally as ‘Inflation Targeting,’ has been gaining increasing acceptance in developed countries, having been adopted in 1991 by New Zealand, Canada, and England, among others, and has achieved significant advances in the management of inflation without incurring costs in terms of economic activity. In Latin America, Brazil and Chile also adopted it in 1999. In the case of Colombia, the last remaining requirement to be fulfilled in order to adopt said policy was exchange rate flexibility. This was realized around September 1999, when the BDBR decided to abandon the exchange-rate bands to allow the exchange rate to be freely determined in the market.Consistent with the constitutional mandate, the fundamental objective of this new policy approach was “the achievement of an inflation target that contributes to maintaining output growth around its potential.”3 This potential capacity was understood as the GDP growth that the economy can obtain if it fully utilizes its productive resources. To meet this objective, monetary policy must of necessity play a countercyclical role in the economy. This is because when economic activity is below its potential and there are idle resources, the monetary authority can reduce the interest rate in the absence of inflationary pressure to stimulate the economy and, when output exceeds its potential capacity, raise it. This policy principle, which is immersed in the models for guiding the monetary policy stance, makes the following two objectives fully compatible in the medium term: meeting the inflation target and achieving a level of economic activity that is consistent with its productive capacity. To achieve this purpose, the inflation targeting system uses the money market interest rate (at which the central bank supplies primary liquidity to commercial banks) as the primary policy instrument. This replaced the quantity of money as an intermediate monetary policy target that Banco de la República, like several other central banks, had used for a long time. In the case of Colombia, the objective of the new monetary policy approach implied, in practical terms, that the recovery of the economy after the 1999 contraction should be achieved while complying with the decreasing inflation targets established by the BDBR. The accomplishment of this purpose was remarkable. In the first half of the first decade of the 2000s, economic activity recovered significantly and reached a growth rate of 6.8% in 2006. Meanwhile, inflation gradually declined in line with inflation targets. That was how the inflation rate went from 9.2% in 1999 to 4.5% in 2006, thus meeting the inflation target established for that year while GDP reached its potential level. After this balance was achieved in 2006, inflation rebounded to 5.7% in 2007, above the 4.0% target for that year due to the fact that the 7.5% GDP growth exceeded the potential capacity of the economy.4 After proving the effectiveness of the inflation targeting system in its first years of operation, this policy regime continued to consolidate as the BDBR and the technical staff gained experience in its management and state-of-the-art economic models were incorporated to diagnose the present and future state of the economy and to assess the persistence of inflation deviations and expectations with respect to the inflation target. Beginning in 2010, the BDBR established the long-term 3.0% annual inflation target, which remains in effect today. Lower inflation has contributed to making the macroeconomic environment more stable, and this has favored sustained economic growth, financial stability, capital market development, and the functioning of payment systems. As a result, reductions in the inflationary risk premia and lower TES and credit interest rates were achieved. At the same time, the duration of public domestic debt increased significantly going from 2.27 years in December 2002 to 5.86 years in December 2022, and financial deepening, measured as the level of the portfolio as a percentage of GDP, went from around 20% in the mid-1990s to values above 45% in recent years in a healthy context for credit institutions.Having been granted autonomy by the Constitution to fulfill the mandate of preserving the purchasing power of the currency, the tangible achievements made by Banco de la República in managing inflation together with the significant benefits derived from the process of bringing inflation to its long-term target, make the BDBR’s current challenge to return inflation to the 3.0% target even more demanding and pressing. As is well known, starting in 2021, and especially in 2022, inflation in Colombia once again became a serious economic problem with high welfare costs. The inflationary phenomenon has not been exclusive to Colombia and many other developed and emerging countries have seen their inflation rates move away from the targets proposed by their central banks.5 The reasons for this phenomenon have been analyzed in recent Reports to Congress, and this new edition delves deeper into the subject with updated information. The solid institutional and technical base that supports the inflation targeting approach under which the monetary policy strategy operates gives the BDBR the necessary elements to face this difficult challenge with confidence. In this regard, the BDBR reiterated its commitment to the 3.0% inflation target in its November 25 communiqué and expects it to be reached by the end of 2024.6 Monetary policy will continue to focus on meeting this objective while ensuring the sustainability of economic activity, as mandated by the Constitution. Analyst surveys done in March showed a significant increase (from 32.3% in January to 48.5% in March) in the percentage of responses placing inflation expectations two years or more ahead in a range between 3.0% and 4.0%. This is a clear indication of the recovery of credibility in the medium-term inflation target and is consistent with the BDBR’s announcement made in November 2022. The moderation of the upward trend in inflation seen in January, and especially in February, will help to reinforce this revision of inflation expectations and will help to meet the proposed targets. After reaching 5.6% at the end of 2021, inflation maintained an upward trend throughout 2022 due to inflationary pressures from both external sources, associated with the aftermath of the pandemic and the consequences of the war in Ukraine, and domestic sources, resulting from: strengthening of local demand; price indexation processes stimulated by the increase in inflation expectations; the impact on food production caused by the mid-2021 strike; and the pass-through of depreciation to prices. The 10% increase in the minimum wage in 2021 and the 16% increase in 2022, both of which exceeded the actual inflation and the increase in productivity, accentuated the indexation processes by establishing a high nominal adjustment benchmark. Thus, total inflation went to 13.1% by the end of 2022. The annual change in food prices, which went from 17.2% to 27.8% between those two years, was the most influential factor in the surge in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Another segment that contributed significantly to price increases was regulated products, which saw the annual change go from 7.1% in December 2021 to 11.8% by the end of 2022. The measure of core inflation excluding food and regulated items, in turn, went from 2.5% to 9.5% between the end of 2021 and the end of 2022. The substantial increase in core inflation shows that inflationary pressure has spread to most of the items in the household basket, which is characteristic of inflationary processes with generalized price indexation as is the case in Colombia. Monetary policy began to react early to this inflationary pressure. Thus, starting with its September 2021 session, the BDBR began a progressive change in the monetary policy stance moving away from the historical low of a 1.75% policy rate that had intended to stimulate the recovery of the economy. This adjustment process continued without interruption throughout 2022 and into the beginning of 2023 when the monetary policy rate reached 12.75% last January, thus accumulating an increase of 11 percentage points (pp). The public and the markets have been surprised that inflation continued to rise despite significant interest rate increases. However, as the BDBR has explained in its various communiqués, monetary policy works with a lag. Just as in 2022 economic activity recovered to a level above the pre-pandemic level, driven, along with other factors, by the monetary stimulus granted during the pandemic period and subsequent months, so too the effects of the current restrictive monetary policy will gradually take effect. This will allow us to expect the inflation rate to converge to 3.0% by the end of 2024 as is the BDBR’s purpose.Inflation results for January and February of this year showed declining marginal increases (13 bp and 3 bp respectively) compared to the change seen in December (59 bp). This suggests that a turning point in the inflation trend is approaching. In other Latin American countries such as Chile, Brazil, Perú, and Mexico, inflation has peaked and has begun to decline slowly, albeit with some ups and downs. It is to be expected that a similar process will take place in Colombia in the coming months. The expected decline in inflation in 2023 will be due, along with other factors, to lower cost pressure from abroad as a result of the gradual normalization of supply chains, the overcoming of supply shocks caused by the weather, and road blockades in previous years. This will be reflected in lower adjustments in food prices, as has already been seen in the first two months of the year and, of course, the lagged effect of monetary policy. The process of inflation convergence to the target will be gradual and will extend beyond 2023. This process will be facilitated if devaluation pressure is reversed. To this end, it is essential to continue consolidating fiscal sustainability and avoid messages on different public policy fronts that generate uncertainty and distrust. 1 This Report to Congress includes Box 1, which summarizes the trajectory of Banco de la República over the past 100 years. In addition, under the Bank’s auspices, several books that delve into various aspects of the history of this institution have been published in recent years. See, for example: Historia del Banco de la República 1923-2015; Tres banqueros centrales; Junta Directiva del Banco de la República: grandes episodios en 30 años de historia; Banco de la República: 90 años de la banca central en Colombia. 2 This is why lower inflation has been reflected in a reduction of income inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient that went from 58.7 in 1998 to 51.3 in the year prior to the pandemic. 3 See Gómez Javier, Uribe José Darío, Vargas Hernando (2002). “The Implementation of Inflation Targeting in Colombia”. Borradores de Economía, No. 202, March, available at: https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/5220 4 See López-Enciso Enrique A.; Vargas-Herrera Hernando and Rodríguez-Niño Norberto (2016). “The inflation targeting strategy in Colombia. An historical view.” Borradores de Economía, No. 952. https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/6263 5 According to the IMF, the percentage change in consumer prices between 2021 and 2022 went from 3.1% to 7.3% for advanced economies, and from 5.9% to 9.9% for emerging market and developing economies. 6 https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/noticias/junta-directiva-banco-republica-reitera-meta-inflacion-3

Introducción En 2023 el Banco de la República celebra 100 años de su fundación. Este es un aniversario de gran significado, el cual ofrece la oportunidad de resaltar el aporte que el Banco ha hecho al desarrollo del país. Su trayectoria como garante de la estabilidad monetaria lo ha consolidado como la institución estatal independiente que genera mayor confianza entre los colombianos por su transparencia, capacidad de gestión y el cumplimiento efectivo de las funciones de banca central y culturales encomendadas en la Constitución y la Ley. En una fecha tan importante como esta, la Junta Directiva del Banco de la República (JDBR) hace un reconocimiento a las generaciones de directivos y funcionarios que con su compromiso y dedicación contribuyeron a engrandecer esta institución1. El mandato del Banco de la República se consolidó en la Asamblea Nacional Constituyente de 1991, para cuya integración los ciudadanos tuvieron la oportunidad de elegir a las setenta personas que tendrían como tarea redactar una nueva constitución. Los dirigentes de los tres movimientos políticos más votados fueron elegidos presidentes de la Asamblea, y esta presidencia tripartita reflejó la pluralidad y la necesidad de consenso entre las diferentes fuerzas políticas para sacar adelante la reforma. Entre los asuntos considerados, la Asamblea Nacional Constituyente le otorgó especial importancia a la estabilidad monetaria. Por esta razón decidió incluir el tema de banca central y dotar al Banco de la República de la autonomía necesaria para utilizar los instrumentos a su cargo sin injerencia de otras autoridades. El constituyente entendió que velar por la estabilidad de precios es un deber del Estado y que la entidad responsable de este cometido debe estar consagrada en la Constitución y contar con la capacidad técnica y autonomía institucional necesaria para adoptar las decisiones que considere pertinentes para alcanzar este objetivo fundamental, en coordinación con la política económica general. En particular, el artículo 373 estableció que “el Estado, por intermedio del Banco de la República, velará por el mantenimiento de la capacidad adquisitiva de la moneda”, disposición que coincidía con el esquema de banca central adoptado por países exitosos en el control de la inflación. En 1999, mediante sentencia 481, la Corte Constitucional indicó que “el deber de mantener la capacidad adquisitiva de la moneda no solo se predica de la autoridad monetaria, crediticia y cambiaria, esto es de la Junta del Banco de la República, sino también de quienes tienen responsabilidades en la formulación y ejecución de la política económica general del país” y que “la finalidad constitucional básica del Banco de la República es la protección de la moneda sana, pero esa autoridad debe tomar en consideración en sus decisiones los otros objetivos económicos de la intervención del Estado, como el pleno empleo, pues sus funciones deben coordinarse con la política económica general.” La reforma al Banco de la República concertada en la Constituyente de 1991 y en la Ley 31 de 1992 se puede resumir en los siguientes aspectos: i) asignó al Banco un mandato específico: mantener la capacidad adquisitiva de la moneda, en coordinación con la política económica general; ii) designó a la JDBR como autoridad monetaria, cambiaria y crediticia; iii) otorgó al Banco y a su Junta Directiva un importante grado de independencia frente al Gobierno; iv) prohibió al Banco otorgar crédito al sector privado distinto del financiero; v) estableció que para otorgar crédito al Gobierno se requería del voto unánime de su Junta Directiva, a menos que se trate de operaciones de mercado abierto; vi) determinó que el legislador, en ningún caso, podrá ordenar cupos de crédito a favor del Estado o de los particulares; vii) designó al Congreso, en representación de la sociedad, como principal destinatario del ejercicio de rendición de informes del Banco; y viii) delegó en el presidente de la República la función de inspección, vigilancia y control sobre el Banco de la República. Los miembros de la Asamblea Nacional Constituyente entendieron claramente que los beneficios de una inflación baja y estable se extienden a toda la sociedad y contribuyen al buen funcionamiento del sistema económico. Entre los más importantes cabe mencionar que una inflación baja promueve el uso eficiente de los recursos productivos, al permitir que los precios relativos guíen de mejor forma la asignación de recursos, lo cual promueve el crecimiento económico y aumenta el bienestar de la población. Igualmente, una inflación baja reduce la incertidumbre sobre la rentabilidad esperada de la inversión y sobre el precio futuro de los activos, lo que aumenta la confianza de los agentes económicos, facilita la financiación de largo plazo y estimula la inversión. Una inflación baja evita redistribuciones arbitrarias del ingreso y la riqueza, debido a que los estratos de ingresos bajos de la población no pueden protegerse de la inflación mediante la diversificación de sus activos, y concentran una elevada proporción de su ingreso en la compra de alimentos y otros bienes básicos, ítems que generalmente son los más afectados por los choques inflacionarios2. Por otra parte, una baja inflación facilita las negociaciones salariales, lo cual crea un buen clima laboral y reduce la volatilidad del nivel de empleo. Finalmente, una inflación baja contribuye a que el sistema de impuestos sea más transparente y equitativo, al evitar las distorsiones que la inflación introduce sobre el valor de los activos y de los ingresos que componen la base tributaria. Desde el punto de vista de la autoridad monetaria, uno de los beneficios más relevantes de una inflación baja es la credibilidad que los agentes económicos adquieren en la meta de inflación, lo que la convierte en un ancla nominal efectiva sobre el nivel de precios. Al recibir su mandato, y en uso de su autonomía, el Banco de la República empezó a anunciar metas puntuales de inflación anual a partir de 1992. Si bien en esta primera etapa las metas de inflación propuestas no se lograron cumplir de forma precisa, sí se consiguió imprimirle a la inflación una tendencia descendente, que la llevó desde un nivel del 32,4% en 1990 al 16,7% en 1998. Para aquella época la tasa de cambio se mantenía dentro de una banda, lo cual limitaba la efectividad de la política monetaria, que buscaba cumplir simultáneamente una meta de inflación y un objetivo de tasa de cambio. La crisis asiática se contagió a las economías emergentes y afectó de manera importante a la economía colombiana. La tasa de cambio presentó una fuerte presión a la depreciación al cerrarse el acceso al financiamiento externo en condiciones de un elevado desequilibrio externo. Lo anterior, junto con la falta de flexibilidad cambiaria, impidió hacer una política monetaria contracíclica, lo que condujo a una contracción del PIB del 4,2% en dicho año. En este contexto de desaceleración económica, la inflación anual se redujo al 9,2% a finales de 1999, situándose por debajo de la meta del 15% que se había fijado para ese año. Este episodio reveló plenamente lo costoso que podría ser, en términos de actividad económica, el tener simultáneamente metas para la inflación y para la tasa de cambio. Hacia finales de 1999 el Banco de la República anunció la adopción de un nuevo régimen de política monetaria que denominó Esquema de Inflación Objetivo. Este régimen, conocido internacionalmente como ‘Inflation Targeting,’ venía ganando creciente aceptación en países desarrollados, al haber sido adoptado a partir de 1991 por Nueva Zelanda, Canadá e Inglaterra, entre otros, logrando importantes avances en el manejo de la inflación, sin incurrir en costos en términos de actividad económica. En América Latina, Brasil y Chile también lo acogieron en 1999. En el caso colombiano, el último requisito pendiente por cumplir para adoptar dicho esquema de política era la flexibilidad de la tasa de cambio, la cual se materializó hacia septiembre de 1999, cuando la JDBR decidió abandonar las bandas cambiarias para permitir que la tasa de cambio se determinara libremente en el mercado. De forma coherente con el mandato constitucional, el objetivo fundamental de este nuevo esquema de política consistía en “el cumplimiento de una meta de inflación que contribuya a mantener un crecimiento del producto alrededor de su capacidad potencial”3. Dicha capacidad potencial se entendía como aquel crecimiento del PIB que la economía puede obtener si utiliza plenamente sus recursos productivos. Para cumplir este objetivo la política monetaria debe cumplir necesariamente un papel contracíclico en la economía. Ello porque cuando la actividad económica está por debajo de su potencial y existen recursos ociosos, la autoridad monetaria puede reducir la tasa de interés ante la ausencia de presiones inflacionarias para estimular por esa vía la economía y, de manera inversa, cuando el producto supera su capacidad potencial. Este principio de política, que está inmerso en los modelos para guiar la postura de política monetaria, hace que, en el mediano plazo, sean totalmente compatibles los objetivos del cumplimiento de la meta de inflación y de un nivel de actividad económica compatible con su capacidad productiva. Para alcanzar este propósito, en el esquema de inflación objetivo se utiliza la tasa de interés del mercado monetario (a la cual el banco central suministra liquidez primaria a los bancos comerciales), como el instrumento primordial de política. Con ello se sustituyó la cantidad de dinero como meta intermedia de política monetaria, que el Banco de la República, al igual que varios otros bancos centrales, utilizaron por mucho tiempo. En el caso colombiano, el objetivo del nuevo esquema de política monetaria implicaba, en términos prácticos, que la recuperación de la economía, luego de la contracción ocurrida en 1999, debía lograrse al tiempo que se cumplían las metas decrecientes de inflación establecidas por la JDBR. De manera notable este propósito se cumplió. En la primera mitad de la década del 2000 la actividad económica logró una recuperación importante, hasta alcanzar un crecimiento del 6,8% en 2006. Entretanto, la inflación fue descendiendo gradualmente, en línea con las metas de inflación. Fue así como la tasa de inflación se redujo desde el 9,2% en 1999 al 4,5% en 2006, cumpliendo con la meta de inflación establecida para ese año, mientras que el PIB alcanzó su nivel potencial. Después de lograrse este equilibrio en 2006, la inflación repuntó al 5,7% en 2007, por encima de la meta del 4% fijada para ese año, debido a que el crecimiento del PIB del 7,5% superó su capacidad potencial4. Luego de comprobarse la eficacia del esquema de inflación objetivo en sus primeros años de operación, este régimen de política continuó consolidándose a medida que la JDBR y el equipo técnico ganaron experiencia en su manejo y se incorporaron modelos económicos de última tecnología para diagnosticar el estado presente y futuro de la economía, y evaluar la persistencia de los desvíos de la inflación y sus expectativas con respecto a la meta de inflación. A partir de 2010 la JDBR estableció la meta de inflación anual de largo plazo del 3%, que continúa vigente en la actualidad. La menor inflación ha contribuido a crear un entorno macroeconómico más estable, que ha favorecido el crecimiento económico sostenido, la estabilidad financiera, el desarrollo del mercado de capitales y el funcionamiento de los sistemas de pagos. Gracias a ello se lograron reducciones en la prima por riesgo inflacionario y menores tasas de interés de los TES y de crédito. A su vez, la duración de la deuda interna pública aumentó de forma importante pasando de 2,27 años en diciembre de 2002 a 5,86 años en diciembre de 2022 y la profundización financiera, medida como el nivel de la cartera como porcentaje del PIB, pasó de cerca del 20% a mediados de la década de los noventa a valores superiores al 45% en años recientes, en un contexto saludable de los establecimientos de crédito. Los logros tangibles alcanzados por el Banco de la República en el manejo de la inflación al haber contado con la autonomía que le otorgó la Constitución para cumplir con el mandato de preservar el poder adquisitivo de la moneda, junto con los importantes beneficios que se derivaron del proceso de llevar la inflación a su meta de largo plazo, hacen que el reto que actualmente enfrenta la JDBR de retornar la inflación a la meta del 3% sea aún más exigente y apremiante. Como es bien conocido, a partir de 2021, y especialmente en 2022, la inflación en Colombia volvió a convertirse en un serio problema económico, con elevados costos de bienestar. El fenómeno inflacionario no ha sido exclusivo de Colombia y es así como muchos otros países desarrollados y emergentes han visto alejarse sus tasas de inflación de las metas propuestas por sus bancos centrales5. Las razones de este fenómeno se han analizado en los recientes Informes al Congreso, y en esta nueva entrega se profundiza al respecto con información actualizada. La sólida base institucional y técnica que soporta el esquema de inflación objetivo bajo el cual opera la estrategia de política monetaria le da a la JDBR los elementos necesarios para enfrentar con confianza este difícil reto. Al respecto, en su comunicado del 25 de noviembre la JDBR reiteró su compromiso con la meta de inflación del 3,0%, la cual prevé alcanzar hacia finales de 20246. La política monetaria continuará enfocada en cumplir este objetivo, al tiempo que velará por la sostenibilidad de la actividad económica, tal y como lo ordena la Constitución. Las encuestas a analistas llevadas a cabo en marzo mostraron un incremento importante (del 32,3% en enero al 48,5% en marzo) en el porcentaje de respuestas que sitúan las expectativas de inflación a dos años o más en un rango entre el 3% y 4%. Este es un indicativo claro de recuperación de credibilidad en la meta de inflación a mediano plazo, lo cual guarda coherencia con el anuncio de la JDBR de noviembre pasado. La moderación de la tendencia alcista de la inflación que se observó en enero, y especialmente en febrero, contribuirá a reforzar esta revisión de expectativas de inflación, y ayudará a cumplir los objetivos propuestos. Luego de registrarse una inflación del 5,6% a finales de 2021, la inflación mantuvo una tendencia alcista a lo largo de 2022 debido a las presiones inflacionarias tanto de origen externo, asociadas con las secuelas de la pandemia y las consecuencias del conflicto bélico en Ucrania, como de origen interno, resultantes de: el fortalecimiento de la demanda local; los procesos de indexación de precios estimulados por el aumento de las expectativas de inflación; las afectaciones a la producción de alimentos provocadas por el paro de mediados de 2021, y el traspaso de la depreciación a los precios. Los aumentos del salario mínimo del 10% en 2021 y del 16% en 2022, que en ambos casos superaron la inflación observada y el incremento de la productividad, acentuaron los procesos de indexación al haber establecido un elevado referente de ajuste nominal. De esta forma, la inflación total aumentó al 13,1% a finales 2022. La variación anual de alimentos, que subió del 17,2% al 27,8% entre esos dos años, fue el factor que más influyó en la aceleración del Índice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC). Otro rubro que contribuyó de manera importante a las alzas de precios fue el de regulados, cuya variación anual aumentó del 7,1% en diciembre de 2021 al 11,8% a finales de 2022. Por su parte, la medida de inflación básica sin alimentos ni regulados subió del 2,5% al 9,5% entre finales de 2021 y finales de 2022. El aumento sustancial de la inflación básica muestra que la presión inflacionaria se extendió a la mayoría de los rubros de la canasta familiar, lo cual es característico de procesos inflacionarios con una indexación de precios generalizada, como ocurre en Colombia. La política monetaria empezó a reaccionar tempranamente a estas presiones inflacionarias. Fue así como a partir de su sesión de septiembre de 2021 la JDBR inició un cambio progresivo de la postura de la política monetaria a partir del mínimo histórico del 1,75% de la tasa de interés de política al cual se había llegado para estimular la recuperación de la economía. Este proceso de ajuste prosiguió sin interrupción a lo largo de 2022 y hasta inicios de 2023, cuando la tasa de política monetaria alcanzó el 12,75% en enero pasado, con lo cual acumuló un incremento de 11 puntos porcentuales (pp). El público y los mercados se han mostrado sorprendidos de que la inflación continuara aumentando, a pesar de los significativos incrementos de la tasa de interés. Pero como lo ha explicado la JDBR en sus diversas comunicaciones, la política monetaria actúa con rezago. Así como en 2022 la actividad económica se recuperó hasta alcanzar un nivel superior al de prepandemia, impulsada, entre otros factores, por el estímulo monetario otorgado durante el período de pandemia y de los meses subsiguientes, así también los efectos de la actual política monetaria restrictiva se irán dando paulatinamente, lo que permite esperar que hacia finales de 2024 la tasa de inflación converja hacia el 3%, como es el propósito de la JDBR. Los resultados de la inflación en enero y febrero de este año mostraron incrementos marginales decrecientes (13 pb y 3 pb respectivamente), en comparación con la variación observada en diciembre (59 pb). Esto sugiere que se aproxima un punto de inflexión en la tendencia de la inflación. En otros países de América Latina, como Chile, Brasil, Perú y México, la inflación llegó a su techo y ha empezado a descender lentamente, aunque con algunos altibajos. Es previsible que en Colombia ocurra un proceso similar durante los próximos meses. El descenso previsto de la inflación en 2023 obedecerá, entre otros factores, a las menores presiones de costos externos por cuenta de la progresiva normalización de las cadenas de suministro, a la superación de los choques de oferta por razones de clima y por los bloqueos viales de años anteriores, lo que se reflejará en menores ajustes en los precios de los alimentos, como ya se observó en los primeros dos meses del año y, por supuesto, al efecto rezagado de la política monetaria. El proceso de convergencia de la inflación a la meta será gradual y se extenderá más allá de 2023. Dicho proceso se facilitará si se revierten las presiones a la devaluación, para lo cual resulta esencial que se continúe consolidando la sostenibilidad fiscal y se eviten mensajes en diferentes frentes de la política pública que generan incertidumbre y desconfianza. _______________________________________ 1 Este Informe al Congreso contiene el recuadro 1 que resume la trayectoria del Banco de la República en estos 100 años. Adicionalmente, con auspicio del Banco, varios libros que profundizan diversos aspectos de la historia de esta institución fueron publicados en años recientes. Véase, por ejemplo: Historia del Banco de la República 1923-2015; Tres banqueros centrales; Junta Directiva del Banco de la República: grandes episodios en 30 años de historia; Banco de la República : 90 años de la banca central en Colombia. 2 Es por ello que una menor inflación se ha reflejado en la reducción de la desigualdad del ingreso medida a través del coeficiente de Gini al pasar de 58,7 en 1998 a 51,3 en el año previo a la pandemia. 3 Véase Gómez Javier, Uribe José Darío, Vargas Hernando (2002). “The Implementation of Inflation Targeting in Colombia”. Borrador de Economía, núm. 202, marzo, disponible en: https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/5220 4 Véase López-Enciso Enrique A.; Vargas-Herrera Hernando y Rodríguez-Niño Norberto (2016). “La estrategia de inflación objetivo en Colombia. Una visión histórica”, Borrador de Economía, núm. 952. https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/6263 5 Según el FMI, la variación porcentual de los precios al consumidor entre 2021 y 2022 pasó del 3,1 % al 7,3 % para las economías avanzadas, y del 5,9 % al 9,9 % para las economías de mercados emergentes y en vías de desarrollo. 6 https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/noticias/junta-directiva-banco-republica-reitera-meta-inflacion-3