Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „First-time leader“

Purpose Followers’ perceptions of leader trustworthiness affect their trust in the leader (Colquitt et al., 2007). However, because positive benefits of trust generally accrue when trust is reciprocated, examining when and why followers’ perceptions of leader trustworthiness elicit leader’s trust in followers may provide heuristic and practical value. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to examine if followers’ perceptions of leader trustworthiness elicit leaders’ trust in followers, casting follower’s perceptions of leader–member exchange (LMX) quality as a mediator and their perceptions of empowerment as moderating this mediated relationship. Design/methodology/approach Followers’ perception of leader trustworthiness was measured at Time 1, followers’ perceptions of empowerment and LMX were measured at Time 2 and leaders’ trust in followers was measured in Time 3. The authors tested the research model with data collected from 347 leader–follower dyads using the three time-lagged surveys as noted above. Findings Followers’ perceptions of leader trustworthiness and perceptions of empowerment interacted to influence followers’ perceptions of LMX quality, which in turn influenced leaders’ trust in followers. Thus, LMX mediated the trustworthiness–trust relationship and this mediated relationship became stronger at increasing levels of empowerment. Practical implications Being trusted by leaders is beneficial to followers. Training managers in behaviors that elicit employees’ perceptions of manager trustworthiness has the potential to accrue benefits to employees, managers and the organization. Originality/value This study is the first to demonstrate that followers’ perception of leader trustworthiness resulted in leaders trusting followers. In addition, the results support a mediating role for LMX and a moderating role for empowerment in the development of leader trust in the follower. Understanding when and why leaders trust followers offers important insights about development of trust between followers and leaders. The authors discuss implications for theory and practice.

Abstract. Characteristics of the electric fields produced by stepped and dart-stepped leaders 200 µs just prior to the return strokes during natural negative cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning discharges have been analyzed by using data from a broad-band slow antenna system with 0.08 µs time resolution in southeastern China. It has been found that the electric field changes between the last stepped leader and the first return stroke could be classified in three categories. The first type is characterized by a small pulse superimposed on the abrupt beginning of the return stroke, and accounts for 42% of all the cases. The second type accounts for 33.3% and is characterized by relatively smooth electric field changes between the last leader pulse and the following return stroke. The third type accounts for 24.7%, and is characterized by small pulses between the last recognizable leader pulse and the following return stroke. On the average, the time interval between the successive leader pulses prior to the first return strokes and subsequent return strokes was 15.8 µs and 9.4 µs, respectively. The distribution of time intervals between successive stepped leader pulses is quite similar to Gaussian distribution while that for dart-stepped leader pulses is more similar to a log-normal distribution. Other discharge features, such as the average time interval between the last leader step and the first return stroke peak, the ratio of the last leader pulse peak to that of the return stroke amplitude are also discussed in the paper.Key words. Meteology and atmospheric dynamics (atmospheric electricity; lightning) – Radio science (electromagnetic noise and interference)

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to build and test an integrative model of leader identity as an important mechanism explaining why reactions to leadership training associate with leader effectiveness. It is proposed that this mediation relationship is conditional on leadership experience (i.e. time in a formal managerial role), such that it will be weaker for more experienced leaders because they already possess complex leadership-related knowledge and skills. Design/methodology/approach Hypotheses were tested using a sample of German managers (n=196) in formal leadership positions (i.e. with direct subordinates) across a range of industries. Data were collected using online questionnaires. The proposed first-stage mediation model was tested using the structural equation approach. Findings Leader identity was found to mediate the relationship between reactions to leadership training and leader effectiveness. This mediation was conditional upon leadership experience, such that the indirect effect only held for less, but not for more, experienced leaders. Research limitations/implications The findings should be interpreted with caution because all data are self-report and cross-sectional. Practical implications Leadership training for senior leaders should qualitatively differ (in terms of content and length) from that for novice leaders. Originality/value Leadership training can substantially improve managers’ ability to lead effectively. The present study is the first to establish leader identity as a motivational mechanism that explains this relationship. This is also the first study to test for the role of leadership experience in leader development.

The problem of cluster consensus with multiple leaders is called multitracking. In this article, a sort of multitracking of first-order multiagent systems with adaptive coupling strength is studied by the application of adaptive strategy, and the delayed relation between various leaders and clusters is considered. To reach the clustered multitracking goal, a novel pinning-like control protocol with adaptive approach is designed according to the properties of network topology. In addition, the structure of the networked system is a weakly connected digraph. Some conditions are derived to ensure that the nodes in the same cluster reach the consensus via tracking their leader, while leaders will keep a delayed relation with the settled leader node as time goes on to form the required delay consensus.

This paper proposes a novel finite-time consensus tracking protocol for guaranteeing first-order multi-agent systems with a virtual leader to achieve the fast finite-time consensus tracking. The Lyapunov function method, algebra graph theory, homogeneity with dilation and some other techniques are employed to prove that first-order multi-agent systems with a virtual leader applying the proposed protocol can reach the finite-time consensus tracking. Furthermore, theoretical analysis and numerical simulations show that compared with the traditional finite-time consensus tracking protocols, the proposed protocol can accelerate the convergence speed of achieving the finite-time consensus tracking.

This paper addresses the leader-following formation problem of nonholonomic mobile robots. In the formation, only the pose (i.e., the position and direction angle) of the leader robot can be obtained by the follower. First, the leader-following formation is transformed into special trajectory tracking. And then, a neural network (NN) finite-time observer of the follower robot is designed to estimate the dynamics of the leader robot. Finally, finite-time formation control laws are developed for the follower robot to track the leader robot in the desired separation and bearing in finite time. The effectiveness of the proposed NN finite-time observer and the formation control laws are illustrated by both qualitative analysis and simulation results.

For multiple spacecrafts under the communication topology containing a spanning tree with the leader as the root, we investigate a distributed coordinated attitude regulation control problem of the spacecraft with unknown time-varying uncertainties and state-dependent disturbances. Aiming at solving the practical problem that the information of the leader may be only available to a subset of the followers, a novel class of distributed finite-time leaders’ state observer for each follower is proposed. Meanwhile, a new self-adjustment matrix is designed to reduce the overshoot of the system. In addition, an adaptive compensation term is designed to reject the impact of the time-varying inertia uncertainties and external state-dependent and state-independent disturbances. On the basis of the distributed finite-time observer, the self-adjustment matrix and the adaptive law, two distributed coordinated attitude regulation control laws are designed. With the first controller, the coordinated attitude regulation system is stable asymptotically, and with the second controller, the system is bounded stable. Both distributed coordinated attitude regulation controllers can guarantee that the follower spacecraft can track a common time-varying trajectory of the leader. Numerical simulation examples validate the effectiveness of the proposed controllers.

The challenges of maintaining cohesion while making collective decisions in social or aggregating insects can result in the emergence of a leader or leaders. Larval aggregations of the steel-blue sawfly Perga affinis forage nocturnally, and some larvae lead the aggregation on foraging trips more often than expected by chance. We investigated the relationship between these leader and follower roles by comparing the weight and growth of individual larvae with different roles. Our observations reveal no significant difference between the growth of leaders and followers, suggesting that the role of leadership may not provide direct foraging benefits. However, by experimentally manipulating the social structure of larval aggregations, we found that individuals within aggregations that comprise a mixture of leaders and followers enjoy higher growth rates than those in aggregations comprising a single behavioural type. These data demonstrate, for the first time, individual benefits to maintaining a balance of leader and follower roles within larval aggregations, and highlight the importance of considering the perspectives of both leaders and followers when investigating the evolutionary significance of this behavioural variation within animal groups.

PurposeThis study seeks to improve the understanding of physician leaders' leadership work challenges.Design/methodology/approachThe subjects of the empirical study were physician leaders (n = 23) in the largest central hospital in Finland.FindingsA total of five largely identity-related, partially paradoxical dilemmas appeared regarding why working as “just a leader” is challenging for physician leaders. First, the dilemma of identity ambiguity between being a physician and a leader. Second, the dilemma of balancing the expected commitment to clinical patient work by various stakeholders and that of physician leadership work. Third, the dilemma of being able to compensate for leadership skill shortcomings by excelling in clinical skills, encouraging physician leaders to commit to patient work. Fourth, the dilemma of “medic discourse”, that is, downplaying leadership work as “non-patient work”, making it inferior to patient work. Fifth, the dilemma of a perceived ethical obligation to commit to patient work even if the physician leadership work would be a full-time job. The first two issues support the findings of earlier research, while the remaining three emerging from the authors’ analysis are novel.Practical implicationsThe authors list some of the practical implications that follow from this study and which could help solve some of the challenges.Originality/valueThis study explores physician leaders' leadership work challenges using authentic physician leader data in a context where no prior empirical research has been carried out.

When an individual goes from employee to leader, they are forced to go through a role-formation process. The first-time leader faces new challenges from both employees and organizations that he or she must deal with. The first-time leader may either need to create a new relationship with the employees or already have a relationship which changes during role formation. The aim is to highlight, through interviews with seven first-time leaders in Sweden, the factors that are relevant to role formation and the challenges the leader faces.The empirical material is analyzed through Pierre Bourdieu's sociological theory and Hersey och Blanchard's leadership theory. The concepts of Symbolic Perspective and Role Exit are also central to the study. The results show that experiences, culture and values are factors that can influence individuals in the formation of a new role. It also shows that the leadership style is both shaped by role formation but also helps to create the role. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the first-time leader needs selfawareness to identify development opportunities and meet the requirements and expectations that exist.

When an individual goes from employee to leader, they are forced to go through a role-formation process. The first-time leader faces new challenges from both employees and organizations that he or she mustdeal with. The first-time leader may either need to create a new relationship with the employees or already have a relationship which changes during role formation. The aim is to highlight, through interviews with seven first-time leaders in Sweden, the factors that are relevant to role formation and the challenges the leader faces.The empirical material is analyzed through Pierre Bourdieu's sociological theory and Hersey ochBlanchard's leadership theory. The concepts of Symbolic Perspective and Role Exit are also central to the study. The results show that experiences, culture and values are factors that can influence individuals in the formation of a new role. It also shows that the leadership style is both shaped by role formation but also helps to create the role. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the first-time leader needs self-awareness to identify development opportunities and meet the requirements and expectations that exist.

In this era of global mobility, it is increasingly common for individuals to travel beyond their home contexts to live and work. However, adjusting to life and work in an unfamiliar cultural setting can pose challenges due to the differing cultural values, norms and expectations which one might encounter. This thesis focuses on the UAE where, because of the relatively small numbers of UAE nationals, the demographic profile is characterized by the numerical dominance of foreign nationals at almost every occupational level. However, the shaping forces of the indigenous culture remain at the forefront of virtually every aspect of life in that country exerting a strong influence on working practices and expectations. This thesis investigates the experiences of a small group of expatriates recruited to leadership positions in the UAE tertiary sector, specifically it focuses on what challenges they experience in their work in that context and what coping strategies they may employ to help them navigate their new environment. This research was carried out in two tertiary institutions and data were gathered through interviews with seven expatriates new to the context; the views of two Emirati colleagues also contributed to this study. The findings of the study reveal that while tertiary educational institutions in the UAE appear to share structural similarities with western counterparts, local interpretations of organizational roles, structures and processes combine to create organizational cultures unique to that context. The resulting mismatch of expectations between western recruits and their Emirati hosts can sometimes be a source of tensions and misunderstandings. The study additionally found that participants who were able to draw upon attitudes and behaviours associated with the ongoing development of intercultural competence were better equipped to cope with the challenges they encountered in ways which were more beneficial to them in terms of their individual well-being and peace of mind, as well as to their employing institutions. The findings of this study have implications for the way UAE human resources departments organize and conduct not only the recruitment of senior expatriate staff, but also the ongoing orientation and professional support that is offered to them.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1995.
Typescript. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 169-180).

Research has shown that literacy acquisition and the ultimate realisation of literacy, comprehension of the written text requires more than the ability to decode individual words. This study brings together a synthesis of current research on early language acquisition, language structure, vocabulary development and its intrinsic underpinning of comprehension in monolinguals thereby providing a theoretical framework for a comparative study of limited English proficient learners (LEP’s)/English language learners (ELLs) acquiring first time literacy with the attendant vocabulary deficits and age appropriate decoding skills. A quantitative and qualitative study examines the statistical differences between reading, vocabulary, rapid automatic naming (RAN/decoding) and comprehension when a learner born of foreign parents acquires first time literacy in a language other than the language spoken at home. The study isolates and specifies an at risk educational minority through the identification of a hidden comprehension deficit (HCD). In summarising the main findings from the literature review and the empirical investigation, an “at risk educational minority” was identified and isolated through the identification of the HCD. The envisioned outcome was achieved and the hypothesis accepted.
Educational Studies
M. Ed. (Inclusive Education)

Prevailing research presents evidence that links language proficiency to fundamental literacy acquisition. However, when language and literacy acquisition are simultaneous, as is the case with young (4-6 years) English language learners (ELL’s), who acquire literacy in a language not spoken at home in B.C. Canada, the research is limited. The aim of the study was to explore and compare the language and literacy profiles (LLP) of ELL’s and monolingual learners. The normative processes as elucidated in the theoretical frameworks of Bronfenbrenner’s ecosystemic model, Vygotsky’s sociocultural model and the Critical Theory (CT) model informed the comparative framework. In addition, the second language acquisition (SLA) theoretical frameworks purported by Chomsky, Vygotsky and Krashen are elaborated upon. A causal comparative approach to the mixed model research design and a complementary mixed methods approach is applied to the study. The study interactively investigated the cultural and linguistic diversity (CALD) of ELL’s and sought statistically significant differences between the language and literature profiles (LLP) of 25 ELL’s and his/her parent - whose home language is other than English during first time literacy acquisition - and 25 monolingual learners and his/her parent (selected via a simple, purposive, random sample strategy) when English is the language medium used in the inclusive classroom. The qualitative findings delineated the LLP of the ELL’s with regard to CALD, biographic and background details; the quantitative findings, delineated the at risk educationally vulnerable minority by virtue of their limited English proficiency (LEP) and limited emergent literacy and language profile (LLP). The identification of the at risk educationally vulnerable minority, informed the proposed theoretical framework for the study, namely, namely, LLP - Semiotic Scaffolding-From Theory to Practice and the attendant curriculum. Findings are discussed comparatively with the classic and current theoretical frameworks pertaining to child development, language acquisition for both first and second language acquisition (SLA) in addition to globalisation, inclusive education and social justice. The implication of the findings for policy makers, curriculum planners, schools, teachers, classrooms, parents and the learners are discussed. Opportunities for further research are noted.
Psychology of Education
D. Ed. (Psychology of Education)

In December 1945 the "L'Approdo" transmissions were launched at the RAI headquarters in Florence. The radio programme, one of the most important in Italy at the time, went on the air up to 1977, being accompanied from 1952 by a magazine and from 1963 to 1972 by a television programme. The three parallel cultural "enterprises" boasted an impressive number of important collaborators, gravitating around the decisive figure of Carlo Betocchi as leader and organiser. Nevertheless, despite its significance, even the adventure of "L'Approdo" was destined to die. When the transmissions and the publication of the magazine ceased, an entire cultural élite had to come to terms not only with the objective difficulties, but with a crisis of trust and of commitment in the face of what were now irreversible changes in the country. Yet – precisely because "L'Approdo" had battled for an approach that was destined to become minority with the triumph of the new media society – the retrieval of its history and the reconstruction through voices, pages and images of one of the first examples of encounter and mediation between culture and communication appears particularly significant. The methods and the emphatic planning of the entire experience emerge clearly from the first issue of the magazine, produced here in anastatic reprint, and above all from the enclosed CD-Rom which proposes, along with the tables of contents of "L'Approdo", the files and records of the entire correspondence (over 20,000 unpublished pieces) and details of the surviving scripts of the transmissions… In short, we finally have at our disposal material that enables us to reconstruct – through the traces of a programme and a magazine and of the intellectuals who collaborated on them – thirty years of culture and utopia, of compromise and enthusiasm, clustered around the birth, growth and death of an articulated project of "cultural policy".

«In such confusion of affairs, likely to lead to new disturbances, began the year one thousand four hundred and ninety-four […], a most unhappy year for Italy and in truth the beginning of the years of misfortune, because it opened the door to innumerable, horrible calamities.». This is the opening of the sixth chapter in the first book of the famous History of Italy by Francesco Guicciardini which, for the events of that unhappy year and those that immediately followed, draws extensively on the incomparably less well-known and popular De bello italico by Bernardo Rucellai, as demonstrated by his autograph summary of the Latin work and certain coincidences. In many ways a forerunner of the later great historical works, traversed by a line of thought and by reflections of undeniable modernity, the story of the descent into Italy of the 'monster' Charles VIII, seen through the eyes of a Florentine oligarch nostalgic for the regime of Lorenzo and hostile towards Piero de' Medici and his insane politics, deserves to be rediscovered. Based on the only existing manuscript, Rucellai's work is presented here for the first time in a modern edition, representing the very first Italian translation.

Abstract In this personal essay, Tova Mirvis describes her religious evolution concerning the Jewish ritual of mikvah, or women’s immersion into a bath to attain a state of ritual purity. Her initiation begins before her wedding night, when she is accompanied by her mother to the mikvah to be purified before having sex for the first time. The practice continues each month, at the conclusion of her menstrual period. As the years go by, Mirvis begins to experience doubt about her religious observance in general and adherence to the practice of mikvah in particular, chafing at the requirement to ‘cleanse’ herself monthly. Mirvis writes that her discomfort over time leads her to experiment with other forms of ritual immersion and, eventually, she leaves the religious world that had been so central to her.

First-time leaders may find themselves thrust into very stressful situations for their teams and organizations at large. First-time leaders in corporations, the classroom, sports, the military, and politics should understand how stress changes the way followers perceive their leader and the ideal traits for a leader through changing leadership prototype schemas. Implicit leadership theories, social information processing, and cognitive psychology suggest that stress can influence the activation of schema. Changing leadership prototype schemas of followers may affect subsequent productivity and efficiency. This chapter examines if leadership prototype schemas change under stress and recommends ways first-time leaders can respond to these changing schemas, including how female first-time leaders who are often initially perceived as more sensitive leaders can utilize changing perceptions and ideal leader prototypes under stressful conditions.

Some observers blame Mrs. Hilary Clinton's failure to become president on the unwillingness of Americans to endure repeated first-time leadership. After two successful terms of President Barrack Obama—first Black President of the United States of America, plus the first woman president—would have been a repeated first-time leadership. Generally, nations select a new type of leader once, then recline to the traditional type of leader—an older, highly educated male, from the upper class and predominant race. Liberia, on the other hand, has successively elected a first-time leader on three different occasions. What are the results in terms of human, economic, technological, and infrastructure development? The chapter examines the leadership of non-college educated military sergeant, female president on the African continent, and superstar international soccer player. It summarizes Liberia's economics and healthcare infrastructure.

This study aims to understand whether a first-time female leader's executive leadership qualities reflect the attribute of a true leader. Using the gender diversity point of view, the chapter studies the leadership characteristics that contributed to the election of a female leader in South Asia, specifically Sri Lanka. This case from Sri Lanka highlights the election of a first-time political leader (prime minister). The study determines the relevance of personalized leadership style in influencing the emancipation of nations. It also considers how other context-relevant characteristics influence their executive roles. The study found that the election of the female prime minister was not based on compassionate grounds. Empirical evidence shows that this woman had proven leadership attributes prior to becoming prime minister. The study presents unique visionary leadership attributes, experiences, and lessons for future women leaders.

In this case study, a faculty member at a Historically Black College/University (HBCU) shares their story of working as a white male in an all-Black college from first hire, to leaving, to returning in order to lead their former academic program. During their first year of leadership the author faced personal tragedy, professional promotion, strained relationships with colleagues, and finally, a global pandemic that changed the world. For those interested in the experiences of a first-time leader, this is a unique case study.

Leaders emerge from different levels of an organization. Some arise as young leaders, fresh from their educational journeys, while others are knowingly or unknowingly groomed and the right opportunity and time intersect for an appointment. There is no doubt that leaders can lead without an official title; however, once a title is given, much work is needed to excel and advance not only oneself but also the organization. Many leaders come into mid to high level positions with skills needed for the tasks at hand but lack various strategies to navigate the organizational landscape without burning bridges or falling into pitfalls. This chapter, per the authors, illustrates how true and effective leaders transition well into their new role or spaces, track the landscape by observing their environment, and prioritize the grooming, growing, and transformation of others to create more leaders. This chapter reveals teachable moments in the lives of others and strategies for first time leaders to adopt in order to grow as a leader and avoid missteps.

History is witness to many first-time transformational leaders like Mahatma Gandhi and Martin Luther King Jr who garnered mass movements for the fight to their country's freedom. A first-time leader shows high levels of commitment and a strong desire to make a positive difference to society. However, the abilities and strengths of a leader is truly tested during crises. The nature of a crisis is its suddenness, uncertainty, and catastrophic impact, and hence, an opportunity to showcase innate leadership characteristics. Some examples of successful first-time political leaders who received accolades across the globe for their handling of the recent COVID-19 crisis are from developed nations like New Zealand, Finland, Australia, and a developing nation, India. It is in this context that the leadership styles, behavioral patterns and decision-making abilities of these first time political leaders is analysed with special reference to their response to the COVID-19 crisis. This analysis may enable other leaders in replicating these behaviours to succeed as leaders in crisis situations.

Leadership is the ability to connect with people and create an environment that unlocks the potential of individuals, groups, and the organization at large so that every member has the upper hand to make the best contribution to the success of the organization. Great finish resides on great leadership. Leaders are known for their remarkable success or a significant failure in their leadership endeavor. This continuum of success and failure makes it wise to ask what is the truth behind that curtain of the success and failure? What is the contributing factor that makes a leader great leader? Is the golden position left for selected few? There is an abundant volume of literature on the study of leaders and leadership, but little is said on first time leadership. The purpose of this chapter is to create a thorough understanding of the contemporary leadership empowerment.

Increasingly, the notion of manager is confronted with that of leader. The literature written on this subject is considerable (John P. Kotter and Abraham Zaleznik being only two of the sound names that can be mentioned in this endeavor). Zaleznik proposed that managers were results driven and leaders were creative artists. Kotter proposed that leaders navigated change and managers navigated complexity. John P. Kotter says that today's managers need to know how to lead, be managers and leaders. The differences are: 1. Management is more formal and scientific than leadership. Management is an explicit set of tools and techniques, based on reason and testing, that can be used in a variety of situations; 2. Leadership involves having a vision of where the organization should go; 3. Leadership demands cooperation, teamwork. Researcher Warren Bennis said, “Managers are people who do things right, and leaders are people who do right things.” Organizations need both. So what does leader mean, what does manager mean? Why are these concepts being put so often face to face? A management specialist, P. Drucker (1954) draws a first distinction: management means doing the right thing, and leadership means doing the right thing. Such an opinion is continued by S. R. Covey (1990): "management is efficient in ascending on the scale of success, and management determines whether the ladder is placed on the right wall". In other words, the manager manages, organizes, the leader has a vision. Such a direction of analysis is illustratively supported by the metaphor of the road through the jungle: in organizing and conducting this expedition - often similar to the activity of organizations to achieve the proposed objectives - the manager prepares the tools, distributes them to the participants, writes and debates procedural manuals, in time what the driver looks for the direction, the path, has a certain sense for finding the best way. Thus, while the manager generates orders, organization, the leader creates and causes change, draws directions not only objectives, sets directions not only agendas, seeks new resources does not rationally allocate only existing ones. Assuring quality management inevitably brings multiple changes of substance and size in terms of philosophy and management practice at the level of the Romanian school. The concept of quality management necessarily includes the notion of leadership. The multiple researches carried out over time on quality management in education have consistently nominated among the factors that generate and feed this efficiency, the idea of leadership. Thus, the quality of leader of the manager is considered fundamental for ensuring quality management in the school, and the school is considered effective.

In previous work, a (smooth) finite-time distributed control algorithm with time transformation was introduced for first-order multiagent systems, which guarantees convergence of the single state of agents to a time-varying leader at a-priori given, user-defined time T from any arbitrary initial conditions with bounded local control signals. In this paper, we present an extension of this previous work to second-order multiagent systems. Specifically, utilizing a user-defined finite-time interval of interest t ∈ [0, T), we time transform this class of multiagent systems subject to the considered (smooth) distributed control algorithm to an infinite-time interval s ∈ [0, ∞) with s being the stretched time. Based on a property of this time transformation, this results in finite-time convergence as the regular time t approaches to T from any arbitrary initial conditions with bounded local control and internal signals. Finally, two numerical examples illustrate the efficacy of the proposed algorithm.

The safety and reliability of all systems has to be maintained throughout the lifetime of a nuclear power plant. Continuous R&D work is needed in targeted areas to meet the challenges of long term operation of existing designs and for the GEN-III designs. A special focus is placed on reactor coolant pressure boundary (RCPB) components, because its integrity and functionality from the time of first operation until end of life is required to ensure plant safety. The overall objective of STYLE is to assess, optimize and develop the use of advanced tools for the structural integrity assessment of RCPB components relevant to ageing and life time management and to support the integration of the knowledge created in the project into mainstream nuclear industry assessment codes. The project concept is based on carefully selected research topics, which thematically cover the complex multidisciplinary character of structural assessment of RCPB components. The prioritization of the work reflects the needs of industrial end-users and assessment of currently available techniques and data at European and international level. This paper describes the current status of the project STYLE and summarizes its main results achieved up to date (Feb 2013). The project is coordinated by AREVA GmbH with 20 partner organizations from Europe, one collaborator from USA and one collaborator from Russia: AREVA GmbH, Germany (coordination, WP2 leader) AREVA SAS, France Bay Zoltan, Hungary CEA, France (WP1 leader) EDF, France EDF Energy Ltd., UK (WP7 leader) EK, Hungary IdS, France INR, Romania IWM, Germany JRC, Netherlands (WP4 leader) NRI, Czech Republic NRG, Netherlands SCK-CEN, Belgium AMEC, UK (WP3 and WP5 leader) University of Bristol, UK University of Manchester, UK Tecnatom, Spain Vattenfall, Sweden (WP6 leader) VTT, Finland ORNL, USA NIKIET, Russia

Abstract Energy management systems, such as New York Air Brake’s LEADER [1], are real-time control technologies that optimize train performance as Level 2 Autonomy systems under the SAE’s “Levels of Driving Automation” classification system [2], and are now commonly used by many railroads. Such systems require extensive testing due to varying requirements of speed and fuel efficiency, compatibility with the wide variation in consists actually marshalled in the field, as well as the potential for the systems to cause break-in-twos or other undesirable situations. Devising accurate test cases that translate well to real-world usage is a common obstacle in the software development process. Using empirical data gathered from sampling field observations and an unsupervised machine learning model, we have created a simple but effective software system capable of performing automated statistical analysis on train consists and recommending a small number of consists which best capture the variation observed on-track. The data produced by such a system is demonstrably useful in developing truly representative test cases for train control systems/energy management software. In this investigation, we first applied such an algorithm to a population of train consists from some arbitrary segment of North American track to identify the most representative sample. We then evaluated the performance of the LEADER driving strategy for the sample set of consists with one of two consists that had previously been used for ad-hoc development testing of the software. Our findings from these simulations indicate that the consists identified by the clustering algorithm display greater variation in LEADER-controlled performance across several features than the ad-hoc testing consists do. Such metrics are transit time, fuel consumption, speed limit adherence, and air brake usage. Application of the algorithm is therefore beneficial in that it allows for more efficient and more thorough testing and characterization of energy management software.

In the framework of the European Commission LEADER project, an experimental campaign of seven tests was performed in the LIFUS5/Mod2 facility, at ENEA CR Brasimone, for investigating the postulated Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR) event in a relevant configuration for the Spiral-Tube Steam Generator (STSG) of the European Lead Fast Reactor (ELFR). The LIFUS5/Mod2 facility is composed by a water tank of 15 L injecting subcooled water up to 200 bar into the reaction tank of 100 L (420 mm of diameter), which is connected by a 3 inch pipe to the dump tank of 2 m3. A dedicated test section was designed, assembled and implemented in the reaction tank. It is composed by 188 tubes, vertically disposed with triangular pitch inside a cylindrical support. This tube bundle is representative of a portion of the STSG of ELFR. The cylindrical support is closed at the lower and upper end by two tube plates and has a perforated lateral shell (300 mm of diameter and 400 mm high). The reaction tank is filled by Lead-Bismuth Eutectic alloy (LBE) at 400°C up to the top tube plate, with an argon cover gas at about 2 bar. The water is injected at about 180 bar and 270°C through the central tube, at middle height of the bundle. The water-LBE interaction is characterised by high quality data acquisition system: 6 fast Pressure Transducers (PTs) working at 10 kHz for precisely characterize the first narrow injection peaks, 70 low constant time Thermocouples (TCs) to understand the vapour evolution path and 13 strain gages (SGGs) for measuring the strain of the bundle and main vessel. The overall LEADER experimental campaign is constituted by seven tests, divided in three series (B1, B2 and B3), characterized by different injection orifice diameters of 4, 8.9 and 12.6 mm, respectively. This paper presents the experimental results of the first two tests of series B2 (B2.1 and B2.2) having 8.9 mm of injection orifice. The first test analysed showed a first narrow pressure peak of about 32 bar, some milliseconds after the cap rupture instant. The following pressurization due to the evaporation of water entered into the reaction vessel was of an analogues magnitude for both the tests (about 50 bar) and lasted some tenths of second. The water/LBE interaction lower temperature was reached on the inner ranks of tubes, about 150°C. The outer rank was cooled down to about 300°C. The strain gage measurements showed a decreasing deformation on the tubes toward the outer positions. No ruptures were observed on tubes surrounding the injector. The amount of LBE transported into the dump tank was strongly dependent on the LBE level in the reaction tank at the start of the tests and about 200 kg.

We study the problem of finding Stackelberg equilibria in games with a massive number of players. So far, the only known game instances in which the problem is solved in polynomial time are some particular congestion games. However, a complete characterization of hard and easy instances is still lacking. In this paper, we extend the state of the art along two main directions. First, we focus on games where players' actions are made of multiple resources, and we prove that the problem is NP-hard and not in Poly-APX unless P = NP, even in the basic case in which players are symmetric, their actions are made of only two resources, and the cost functions are monotonic. Second, we focus on games with singleton actions where the players are partitioned into classes, depending on which actions they have available. In this case, we provide a dynamic programming algorithm that finds an equilibrium in polynomial time, when the number of classes is fixed and the leader plays pure strategies. Moreover, we prove that, if we allow for leader's mixed strategies, then the problem becomes NP-hard even with only four classes and monotonic costs. Finally, for both settings, we provide mixed-integer linear programming formulations, and we experimentally evaluate their scalability on both random game instances and worst-case instances based on our hardness reductions.

The paper outlines the main features of the PGT 16 gas turbine with its auxiliaries and summarizes the experiences made in the field with the first seven units put in service starting in the first quarter of 1992. The PGT 16 gas turbine utilizes an aero-derivative gas generator, the LM 1600 manufactured by General Electric, coupled with a heavy-duty power turbine designed and manufactured by Nuovo Pignone. This power turbine is the same utilized for the 14000 HP heavy-duty gas turbine Nuovo Pignone PGT 10. The nominal shaft power is 18600 HP, with 36.4% efficiency. The design shaft speed of 7900 rpm makes this unit particularly suitable for mechanical drive applications, matching the typical speed range of centrifugal compressors in its power range. At the same time the high efficiency makes this unit attractive for both simple cycle and combined cycle power generation plants. The package design privileges maintenance requirements to minimize the downtime and to provide the highest possible degree of availability. The first 5 units in service have been installed along the Transcanada Pipeline and drive pipeline booster ‘compressors, PCL and BCL type: the other two units are in operation in a cogeneration facility in a paper-mill. At October ’93 the seven units have totalled 60,000 fired hours and the fleet leader 13,000 fired hours approximately.

In the framework of the EC FP7 LEADER project, an experimental campaign was performed in the LIFUS5/Mod2 facility, at ENEA CR Brasimone, for investigating the postulated Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR) event in a relevant configuration for the spiral tube Steam Generator (SG) of the European Lead Fast Reactor (ELFR). Two tests are analysed. The LIFUS5/Mod2 facility implemented a test section composed by 188 tubes, vertically disposed with triangular pitch, in a shell closed by top and bottom flanges and having a perforated cylindrical wall. The central tube injected water at about 180 bar and 270°C, at middle height of the tube bundle, in the reaction tank partially filled by Lead-Bismuth Eutectic alloy (LBE) at 400°C with an argon cover gas at about 2 bar. It was connected to a 2 m3 dump tank, due to the high injection pressure. In the reaction tank fast instrumentation was set: 6 fast Pressure Transducers (PTs) acquiring data at 10 kHz for precisely characterize the first injection peaks; 70 low constant time Thermocouples (TCs) to understand the vapour evolution path; and 13 strain gages (SGGs) to measure the strain of the bundle and main vessel. The first test analysed showed a first pressure peak of about 25 bar, due to pressure wave propagation at the cap rupture instant. It did not appear in the second test as consequence of a leakage from the cap before the complete rupture. The following pressurization caused by the entering of water into the reaction vessel was of an analogues magnitude for both the tests (about 30 bar). The water/LBE interaction lower temperature was reached on the inner ranks of tubes, about 160°C. The outer rank was cooled down to 340°C. The strain gage measurements showed a decreasing deformation on the tubes toward the outer positions. No ruptures were observed on tubes surrounding the injector. The amount of LBE transported into the dump tank was strongly dependent on the LBE level in the reaction tank at the start of the tests.

Fleet leader machines with non-shot-peened discs made of Inconel® alloy 706 were experienced to have cracks in the first stage gas turbine wheels. These were inter-granular cracking and observed to be highly stressed locations with less potential for oxidation, which is thought to be quasi-brittle inter-granular cracking due to stress induced atmospheric oxygen penetration, so called, hold-time cracking. To recognize this phenomenon, creep and creep-fatigue tests with smooth and notched specimens were conducted at 600 and 650°C in air and vacuum and confirmed the environmental effects on those lives and fracture modes. The effectiveness of shot peening which was used as one of the countermeasures for this phenomenon was verified by using the creep-fatigue tests. The durability was also evaluated by thermal and stress aging tests at 450 and 500°C up to around 104 hours. Little relaxations were observed during the thermal agings after the initial rapid relaxation of the surface residual stress, but the effects of the loading stresses were observed above the yielding stress at each temperature.

"When individual contributors or professionals are promoted into their first formal leadership position, many do not realize how tough that transition can be for them. We often hear that these leaders are not prepared, and lack the support and development to help make that transition successfully. When they are not supported, they suffer, and so too do their teams, the organization, and the HR leadership pipeline, which ultimately can negatively impact the organization’s bottom line. First-time managers are an important part of an organization’s talent and succession management. In turn, organizations may attempt to help first-time managers make the transition into leadership easier by implementing a formal mentoring program. This white paper supports this effort by: • Explaining the benefits a mentoring program can provide for first-time managers and their mentor. • Providing organizations a way to strengthen their own mentoring programs. • Offering HR leaders specific steps to follow and best practices applied in starting and maintaining a successful formal mentoring program specifically aimed at first-time managers. Formal mentoring programs are useful to support and develop first-time managers, an important leadership population that is vital for strengthening your leadership pipeline and succession management efforts. Armed with the knowledge from this white paper, we believe you will be able to gain a competitive advantage".

For the first time, a Chinese company—Huawei—is set to lead the global transition from one key national security infrastructure technology to the next. How did Washington, at the beginning of the twenty-first century, fail to protect U.S. firms in this strategic technology and allow a geopolitical competitor to take a leadership position in a national security relevant critical infrastructure such as telecommunications? This policy brief highlights the characteristics of 5G development that China leveraged, exploited, and supported to take the lead in this key technology. The Huawei case study is in some ways the canary in the coal mine for emerging technologies and an illustration of what can happen to U.S. competitiveness when China’s companies do not have to base decisions on market forces.

Rain impacts roadways such as wet pavement, standing water, decreased visibility, and wind gusts and can lead to hazardous driving conditions. This study investigates the use of high fidelity Doppler data at 1 km spatial and 2-minute temporal resolution in combination with commercial probe speed data on freeways. Segment-based space-mean speeds were used and drops in speeds during rainfall events of 5.5 mm/hour or greater over a one-month period on a section of four to six-lane interstate were assessed. Speed reductions were evaluated as a time series over a 1-hour window with the rain data. Three interpolation methods for estimating rainfall rates were tested and seven metrics were developed for the analysis. The study found sharp drops in speed of more than 40 mph occurred at estimated rainfall rates of 30 mm/hour or greater, but the drops did not become more severe beyond this threshold. The average time of first detected rainfall to impacting speeds was 17 minutes. The bilinear method detected the greatest number of events during the 1-month period, with the most conservative rate of predicted rainfall. The range of rainfall intensities were estimated between 7.5 to 106 mm/hour for the 39 events. This range was much greater than the heavy rainfall categorization at 16 mm/hour in previous studies reported in the literature. The bilinear interpolation method for Doppler data is recommended because it detected the greatest number of events and had the longest rain duration and lowest estimated maximum rainfall out of three methods tested, suggesting the method balanced awareness of the weather conditions around the roadway with isolated, localized rain intensities.

Maths inside is a photo competition open to everyone living in Scotland, hosted by the University of Glasgow. The maths inside project seeks to nourish a love for mathematics by embarking on a journey of discovery through a creative lens. This suite of resources have been created to inspire entrants, and support families, teachers and those out-of-school to make deeper connections with their surroundings. The maths inside is waiting to be discovered! Also contained in the suite is an example to inspire and support you to design your own interdisciplinary learning (IDL) activity matched to Education Scotland experiences and outcomes (Es+Os), to lead pupils towards the creation of their own entry. These resources are not prescriptive, and are designed with a strong creativity ethos for them to be adapted and delivered in a manner that meets the specific needs of those participating. The competition and the activities can be tailored to meet all and each learners' needs. We recommend that those engaging with maths inside for the first time complete their own mapping exercise linking the designed activity to the Es+Os. To create a collaborative resource bank open to everyone, we invite you to treat these resources as a working document for entrants, parents, carers, teachers and schools to make their own. Please share your tips, ideas and activities at info@mathsinside.com and through our social media channels. Past winning entries of the competition are also available for inspiration and for using as a teaching resource. Already inspired? Enter the competition!

Increased production rates and cost reduction are affecting manufacturing in all sectors of the mobility industry. One enabling methodology that could achieve these goals in the burgeoning “Industry 4.0” environment is the deterministic assembly (DA) approach. The DA approach is defined as an optimized assembly process; it always forms the same final structure and has a strong link to design-for-assembly and design-for-automation methodologies. It also looks at the whole supply chain, enabling drastic savings at the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) level by reducing recurring costs and lead time. Within Industry 4.0, DA will be required mainly for the aerospace and the space industry, but serves as an interesting approach for other industries assembling large and/or complex components. In its entirety, the DA approach connects an entire supply chain—from part manufacturing at an elementary level to an OEM’s final assembly line level. Addressing the whole process of aircraft design and manufacturing is necessary to develop further collaboration models between OEMs and the supply chain, including addressing the most pressing technology challenges. Since all parts aggregate at the OEM level, the OEM—as an integrator of all these single parts—needs special end-to-end methodologies to drastically decrease cost and lead time. This holistic approach can be considered in part design as well (in the design-for-automation and design-for-assembly philosophy). This allows for quicker assembly at the OEM level, such as “part-to-part” or “hole-to-hole” approaches, versus traditional, classical assembly methods like manual measurement or measurement-assisted assembly. In addition, it can increase flexibility regarding rate changes in production (such as those due to pandemic- or climate-related environmental challenges). The standardization and harmonization of these areas would help all industries and designers to have a deterministic approach with an end-to-end concept. Simulations can easily compare possible production and assembly steps with different impacts on local and global tolerances. Global measurement feedback needs high-accuracy turnkey solutions, which are very costly and inflexible. The goal of standardization would be to use Industry 4.0 feedback and features, as well as to define several building blocks of the DA approach as a one-way assembly (also known as one-up assembly, or “OUA”), false one-way assembly, “Jig-as-Master,” etc., up to the hole-to-hole assembly approach. The evolution of these assembly principles and the link to simulation approaches are undefined and unsolved domains; they are discussed in this report. They must be discussed in greater depth with aims of (first) clarifying the scope of the industry-wide alignment needs and (second) prioritizing the issues requiring standardization. NOTE: SAE EDGE™ Research Reports are intended to identify and illuminate key issues in emerging, but still unsettled, technologies of interest to the mobility industry. The goal of SAE EDGE™ Research Reports is to stimulate discussion and work in the hope of promoting and speeding resolution of identified issues. SAE EDGE™ Research Reports are not intended to resolve the challenges they identify or close any topic to further scrutiny.

This project summarizes the results from 2000–2020and evaluates the trueness andthequality control (QC) procedures of the ongoing polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH)and trace element measurements in Finlandrelating to Air Quality (AQ) Directive 2004/107/EC. The evaluation was focused on benzo(a)pyrene and other PAH compounds as well as arsenic, cadmium and nickel in PM10and deposition. Additionally, it included lead and other metals in PM10and deposition, gaseous mercury and mercury deposition, andbriefly other specificAQ measurements such as volatile organic compounds (VOC)and PM2.5chemical composition. This project was conducted by the National Reference Laboratory on air quality and thiswas the first time these measurements were assessed. A major part of the project was field and laboratory audits of the ongoing PAH and metal measurements. Other measurements were briefly evaluated through interviews and available literature. In addition, the national AQ database, the expertise of local measurement networks and related publications were utilised. In total, all theseven measurement networks performing PAH and metal measurements in 2019–2020took part in the audits. Eleven stations were audited while these measurements are performed at 22 AQ stations in Finland. For the large networks, one station was chosen to represent the performance of the network. The audits included also six laboratories performing the analysis of the collected samples. The audits revealed the compliance of the measurements with the AQ Decree 113/2017, Directive 2004/107/EC and Standards of the European Committee for Standardization(CEN). In addition, general information of the measurements, instruments and quality control procedures were gained. The results of the laboratory audits were confidential,but this report includes general findings, and the measurement networks were informed on the audit results with the permission of the participating laboratories. As a conclusion, the measurementmethodsusedwere mainly reference methods. Currently, all sampling methods were reference methods; however, before 2018 three networks used other methods that may have underestimated concentrations. Regarding these measurements, it should be noted the results are notcomparable with the reference method. Laboratory methods were reference methods excluding two cases, where the first was considered an acceptable equivalent method. For the other, a change to a reference method was strongly recommended and this realized in 2020. For some new measurements, the ongoing QC procedures were not yet fully established, and advice were given. Some networks used consultant for calibration and maintenance, and thus theywere not fully aware of the QC procedures. EN Standards were mostly followed. Main concerns were related to the checks of flow and calculation of measurement uncertainty, and suggestions for improvement were given. When the measurement networks implement the recommendations given inthe audits, it can be concluded that the EN Standards are adequately followed in the networks. In the ongoing sampling, clear factors risking the trueness of the result were not found. This applies also for the laboratory analyses in 2020. One network had concentrations above the target value, and theindicative measurementsshould be updated to fixed measurements.

Forced by the 1997 Southeast Asian crisis to recognize the external vulnerabilities that openness to volatile capital flows result in and upset over the post-crisis policy responses imposed by the IMF, countries in the sub-region saw the need for a regional financial safety net that can pre-empt or mitigate future crises. At the outset, the aim of the initiative, then led by Japan, was to create a facility or design a mechanism that was independent of the United States and the IMF, since the former was less concerned with vulnerabilities in Asia than it was in Latin America and that the latter’s recommendations proved damaging for countries in the region. But US opposition and inherited geopolitical tensions in the region blocked Japan’s initial proposal to establish an Asian Monetary Fund, a kind of regional IMF. As an alternative, the ASEAN+3 grouping (ASEAN members plus China, Japan and South Korea) opted for more flexible arrangements, at the core of which was a network of multilateral and bilateral central bank swap agreements. While central bank swap agreements have played a role in crisis management, the effort to make them the central instruments of a cooperatively established regional safety net, the Chiang Mai Initiative, failed. During the crises of 2008 and 2020 countries covered by the Initiative chose not to rely on the facility, preferring to turn to multilateral institutions such as the ADB, World Bank and IMF or enter into bilateral agreements within and outside the region for assistance. The fundamental problem was that because of an effort to appease the US and the IMF and the use of the IMF as a foil against the dominance of a regional power like Japan, the regional arrangement was not a real alternative to traditional sources of balance of payments support. In particular, access to significant financial assistance under the arrangement required a country to be supported first by an IMF program and be subject to the IMF’s conditions and surveillance. The failure of the multilateral effort meant that a specifically Asian safety net independent of the US and the IMF had to be one constructed by a regional power involving support for a network of bilateral agreements. Japan was the first regional power to seek to build such a network through it post-1997 Miyazawa Initiative. But its own complex relationship with the US meant that its intervention could not be sustained, more so because of the crisis that engulfed Japan in 1990. But the prospect of regional independence in crisis resolution has revived with the rise of China as a regional and global power. This time both economics and China’s independence from the US seem to improve prospects of successful regional cooperation to address financial vulnerability. A history of tensions between China and its neighbours and the fear of Chinese dominance may yet lead to one more failure. But, as of now, the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s support for a large number of bilateral swap arrangements and its participation in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership seem to suggest that Asian countries may finally come into their own.

Emergency Relief (ER) is a Department of Social Services (DSS) funded program, delivered by 197 community organisations (ER Providers) across Australia, to assist people facing a financial crisis with financial/material aid and referrals to other support programs. ER has been playing this important role in Australian communities since 1979. Without ER, more people living in Australia who experience a financial crisis might face further harm such as crippling debt or homelessness. The Emergency Relief National Coordination Group (NCG) was established in April 2020 at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic to advise the Minister for Families and Social Services on the implementation of ER. To inform its advice to the Minister, the NCG partnered with the Institute for Governance at the University of Canberra to conduct research to understand the issues and challenges faced by ER Providers and Service Users in local contexts across Australia. The research involved a desktop review of the existing literature on ER service provision, a large survey which all Commonwealth ER Providers were invited to participate in (and 122 responses were received), interviews with a purposive sample of 18 ER Providers, and the development of a program logic and theory of change for the Commonwealth ER program to assess progress. The surveys and interviews focussed on ER Provider perceptions of the strengths, weaknesses, future challenges, and areas of improvement for current ER provision. The trend of increasing case complexity, the effectiveness of ER service delivery models in achieving outcomes for Service Users, and the significance of volunteering in the sector were investigated. Separately, an evaluation of the performance of the NCG was conducted and a summary of the evaluation is provided as an appendix to this report. Several themes emerged from the review of the existing literature such as service delivery shortcomings in dealing with case complexity, the effectiveness of case management, and repeat requests for service. Interviews with ER workers and Service Users found that an uplift in workforce capability was required to deal with increasing case complexity, leading to recommendations for more training and service standards. Several service evaluations found that ER delivered with case management led to high Service User satisfaction, played an integral role in transforming the lives of people with complex needs, and lowered repeat requests for service. A large longitudinal quantitative study revealed that more time spent with participants substantially decreased the number of repeat requests for service; and, given that repeat requests for service can be an indicator of entrenched poverty, not accessing further services is likely to suggest improvement. The interviews identified the main strengths of ER to be the rapid response and flexible use of funds to stabilise crisis situations and connect people to other supports through strong local networks. Service Users trusted the system because of these strengths, and ER was often an access point to holistic support. There were three main weaknesses identified. First, funding contracts were too short and did not cover the full costs of the program—in particular, case management for complex cases. Second, many Service Users were dependent on ER which was inconsistent with the definition and intent of the program. Third, there was inconsistency in the level of service received by Service Users in different geographic locations. These weaknesses can be improved upon with a joined-up approach featuring co-design and collaborative governance, leading to the successful commissioning of social services. The survey confirmed that volunteers were significant for ER, making up 92% of all workers and 51% of all hours worked in respondent ER programs. Of the 122 respondents, volunteers amounted to 554 full-time equivalents, a contribution valued at $39.4 million. In total there were 8,316 volunteers working in the 122 respondent ER programs. The sector can support and upskill these volunteers (and employees in addition) by developing scalable training solutions such as online training modules, updating ER service standards, and engaging in collaborative learning arrangements where large and small ER Providers share resources. More engagement with peak bodies such as Volunteering Australia might also assist the sector to improve the focus on volunteer engagement. Integrated services achieve better outcomes for complex ER cases—97% of survey respondents either agreed or strongly agreed this was the case. The research identified the dimensions of service integration most relevant to ER Providers to be case management, referrals, the breadth of services offered internally, co-location with interrelated service providers, an established network of support, workforce capability, and Service User engagement. Providers can individually focus on increasing the level of service integration for their ER program to improve their ability to deal with complex cases, which are clearly on the rise. At the system level, a more joined-up approach can also improve service integration across Australia. The key dimensions of this finding are discussed next in more detail. Case management is key for achieving Service User outcomes for complex cases—89% of survey respondents either agreed or strongly agreed this was the case. Interviewees most frequently said they would provide more case management if they could change their service model. Case management allows for more time spent with the Service User, follow up with referral partners, and a higher level of expertise in service delivery to support complex cases. Of course, it is a costly model and not currently funded for all Service Users through ER. Where case management is not available as part of ER, it might be available through a related service that is part of a network of support. Where possible, ER Providers should facilitate access to case management for Service Users who would benefit. At a system level, ER models with a greater component of case management could be implemented as test cases. Referral systems are also key for achieving Service User outcomes, which is reflected in the ER Program Logic presented on page 31. The survey and interview data show that referrals within an integrated service (internal) or in a service hub (co-located) are most effective. Where this is not possible, warm referrals within a trusted network of support are more effective than cold referrals leading to higher take-up and beneficial Service User outcomes. However, cold referrals are most common, pointing to a weakness in ER referral systems. This is because ER Providers do not operate or co-locate with interrelated services in many cases, nor do they have the case management capacity to provide warm referrals in many other cases. For mental illness support, which interviewees identified as one of the most difficult issues to deal with, ER Providers offer an integrated service only 23% of the time, warm referrals 34% of the time, and cold referrals 43% of the time. A focus on referral systems at the individual ER Provider level, and system level through a joined-up approach, might lead to better outcomes for Service Users. The program logic and theory of change for ER have been documented with input from the research findings and included in Section 4.3 on page 31. These show that ER helps people facing a financial crisis to meet their immediate needs, avoid further harm, and access a path to recovery. The research demonstrates that ER is fundamental to supporting vulnerable people in Australia and should therefore continue to be funded by government.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

New research has, for the first time, investigated the direction of links between brain function and substance use throughout adolescence. Jungmeen Kim-Spoon and colleagues studied 167 adolescents who were assessed annually for four years from 13-14 years old.