Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „Expansion to foreing market“

In article various theoretical aspects of an exit of the companies on the foreign markets are considered. Influence of globalization on productivity of the companies is considered, ways and factors of a choice of strategy of an exit to the world market are analysed. The behavioural and cultural aspects influencing strategy of an exit to the world market are analysed. The analysis of strategy of the companies which have entered the foreign markets, is carried out taking into account the previous researches in this area.The following conclusions became result of research: 1) globalization positively influences the companies as the market increases, however the small companies and the companies in emerging markets lose in competitive fight; 2) the companies with considerable experience are inclined to choose strategy of opening of own enterprise while the organizations without similar experience prefer export or joint venture in the host country territory; 3) the strategy choice with a bigger involvement of resources is directly proportional to knowledge of culture of the country to which there is a company. At entry into the market with other culture smooth adaptation is necessary for successful realization of strategy. At last, people are inclined to make behavioural mistakes, and knowledge of them and continuous control will help to achieve successful results; 4) for an exit and successful work in the foreign markets of the company important not only to possess competences, but also to be able to protect them and to keep in time; 5) on the market with high political and investment risks, and also adverse economic conditions of the company are inclined to choose strategy with the minimum investment of money (franchizes, licensing).

Purpose A multinational firm’s expansion in a foreign market is a key issue of international business. The purpose of this study is to extend the understanding of essential drivers that will facilitate firm’s assessment of alternative modes of sequential expansion. Design/methodology/approach The study applies the knowledge-based view and explores a multinational firm’s sequential post-entry expansion in a foreign market. Event histories of Swedish industrial firms’ establishments of wholly owned subsidiaries in Germany, the UK and the USA were explored using Cox regression. Findings Broad market experiences stemming from corporate strategy and deep experiences from the preceding subsidiary increase the likelihood of a sequential investment. Effects of broad experiences are contingent on the context specified by the geographic scope of the firm and its general subsidiary experience. Research limitations/implications The study contributes to international expansion theory and integrates sources of knowledge originating from strategy theory and internationalization theory. The study shows that the dual approach is needed to understand international expansion. Practical implications In evaluating a further subsidiary investment in a foreign market, the multinational firm is advised to assess whether it possesses enough market experiences to justify the investment. The experiences should be associated with corporate strategy, the previous wholly owned subsidiary and the context specifications identified in the study. Originality/value The study is unique, as it addresses the simultaneous impact of broad and deep market experiences. Also, the inclusion of central context specifications makes the study novel.

This paper outlines a rational for assessing the rate of global market expansion by entrepreneurial firms. Many entrepreneurial firms are dependent for their success on global market expansion. This is especially true about firms from relatively small countries. One can conceive of two major and opposing strategies for market expansion: market diversification and market concentration. The first strategy implies a fast penetration into a large number of markets in order to achieve fast growth and a first mover advantage. The second strategy is based on concentration of resources in a few markets and gradual expansion into new territories in order to test the response before committing too much effort. The paper is updating prior work on market expansion, taking into account entrepreneurial firms in the digital age. Firms with digital products don’t have to depend on foreign distribution networks and they have new opportunities for fast entry into foreign markets. We propose a concise framework for determining the preferred rate of market expansion utilizing two key variables: the potential response function of customers and the complexity of the product. The paper include a discussion of ways to assess customers’ response to entrepreneurial innovation and additional factors that can influence the market expansion decision.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify patterns for the intra-market expansion of international branded retailers on a continent-sized emerging market using the network approach. Design/methodology/approach A multiple-case study design of four foreign branded retailers that have expanded onto regional markets in Brazil is used. Findings The intra-market expansion process shares similarities with the cross-market expansion process; is influenced by the relationships of foreign branded retailers with local competitors and shopping mall firms; and market selection, mode of operation and store location decisions are interrelated and conjointly taken, instead of forming a three-stage process. Additionally, the importance of relationships with host market shopping malls firms is highlighted. Research limitations/implications This paper advances a conceptual model of the intra-market expansion process, which comprises a system of interrelated decisions – (regional) market selection, mode of operation and store location – influenced by several network effects. Practical implications Managers of foreign branded retail suffer from liability of foreignness when undertaking intra-market expansion. Although Brazil is a large market, the retail community is highly connected because of managers’ personal relationships. Brazilian shopping malls dominate suitable store locations, and represent a valuable source of knowledge and resources for the foreign branded retailer. Originality/value This paper addresses two under-researched aspects of international retail: branded retailers – manufacturers that develop brands and operate stores – and intra-market expansion (i.e. to geographic regions of a given foreign country). It also discusses the challenges of intra-market expansion in continent-sized emerging markets, with considerable regional diversity (culture, infrastructure and institutions).

Learning outcomes The case seeks to meet the following educational objectives: provide an understanding of the problems and opportunities faced by a company doing business in a rapidly expanding emerging market. Understand how the foreign environment and industry practices impinge on the company’s strategic conduct. Develop the ability to evaluate strategic internationalization decisions in light of considerations related to uncertainty, risk and commitment. Provide for the application of internationalization theories to a real case involving an emerging country company. Discuss new strategies for international market expansion. Case overview/synopsis This case study is about the strategic change of the Usaflex brand and how it impacted its national and international expansion. Usaflex is a Brazilian footwear company founded in 1998 and acquired in 2016 by a group of partners. The new managers started an accelerated process of national and international expansion. In the domestic market, the company adopted the franchise system and in the international market used licensed stores. In addition, the new management implemented a series of modifications, changing the positioning, design and product variety, as well as the communication strategy. This process took place in a highly negative context, with the domestic market suffering the impact of a strong recession and Brazilian footwear exports losing competitiveness in the international market. Complexity academic level The targeted audience of this case is undergraduate and MBA students of Business Management courses, specifically on International Business courses. Supplementary materials Teaching Notes are available for educators only. Subject code CSS 5: International Business.

Purpose A appreciable number of exporters have successfully developed their markets in foreign countries although they have little prior experience in those countries. Advocating that indirect learning plays a crucial role in explaining this phenomenon, the purpose of this paper is attempted to investigate whether and how learning indirectly from competitors and interfirm relationships enables exporters to successful expand their business into foreign markets. Design/methodology/approach Drawing on the knowledge-based theory of the firm and the late-mover advantage theory, the authors developed an empirically testable model that explains and predicts the effects of indirect learning on the success of export market expansion. The model was tested using a complied archival data set in regard to exporters’ market expansion events and international accounting. The sampling frame was the events of Korean exporters’ market expansion. Findings Empirical evidence shows that exporters’ indirect learning from domestic, local, global competitors and from interfirm relationships influence their success of market expansion. In addition, indirect learning from domestic rivals and from interfirm relationships has a more positive effect on the success of expansion into emerging markets than into developed markets. Research limitations/implications Because the authors employed an event-study method, the limitations of this method can be applied to the present research. In addition, because of the empirical context, the results of the research may lack generalizability. The authors, however, provided an understanding how an exporter can succeed in a foreign market specifically when it has lack of direct experience in the market. Practical implications The results of the current research suggested that an exporter should try to learn from local, domestic, and global rivals experienced in a foreign market in order to succeed in the market. In addition, exporters should be affiliated with business groups or partnerships because these affiliations can strengthen the information-sharing mechanisms. Moreover, an exporter should focus first on learning from local rivals and then domestic rivals in order to develop proper expansion strategies. Finally, an exporter should attempt to more actively learn from rivals and interfirm relationships when it targets an emerging market than a developed market. Originality/value Prior studies have emphasized the effects of a firm’s direct learning on market development success. The authors, however, filled a knowledge gap of the impacts of learning in two aspects. First, the authors provided an understanding of the effects of indirect learning on market expansion success. Second, the authors demonstrated these effects in the context of export.

AbstractStates with large markets routinely compete with one another to shield domestic regulatory policies from global pressure, export their rules to other jurisdictions, and provide their firms with competitive advantages. Most arguments about market power tend to operationalize the concept in economic terms. In this paper, we argue that a state's ability to leverage or block these adjustment pressures is not only conditioned by their relative economic position but also by the political institutions that govern their markets. Specifically, we expect that where a state chooses to draw jurisdictional boundaries over markets directly shapes its global influence. When a state expands its jurisdiction, harmonizing rules across otherwise distinct subnational or national markets, for example, it can curtail a rival's authority. We test the theory by assessing how changes in internal governance within the European Union altered firm behavior in response to US extraterritorial pressure. Empirically, we examine foreign firm delisting decisions from US stock markets after the adoption of the Sarbanes–Oxley accounting legislation. The act, which included an exogenous compliance shock, follows the harmonization of stock market governance across various European jurisdictions. Econometric analysis of firm-level data illustrates that EU-based companies, which benefited from jurisdictional expansion, were substantially more likely to leave the American market and avoid adjustment pressures. Our findings contribute to debates on the role of political institutions in economic statecraft and suggest the conditions under which future regulatory conflicts will arise between status quo and rising economic powers.

Purpose – The purpose is to extend the understanding of the resource base of the industrial firm's greenfield expansion on a foreign country market once a wholly owned subsidiary has been established. Design/methodology/approach – A conceptual framework is developed relying on the resource-based theory of strategy. Resource bases in terms of value-adding activities of four Swedish industrial firms' subsidiaries in the USA are analysed. Four theoretical propositions are formulated regarding consistent associations among the activities and contingencies that are relevant to expansion on a foreign country market. Findings – The propositions show how foreign subsidiaries' value-adding activities are aligned with two contingencies: the corporate strategy manifested by the product/market knowledge transferred from the parent firm that enable local expansion and the subsidiary's knowledge of competition barriers that obstruct local expansion. The value-adding activity may be basic or advanced and may repeat the parent firm's activity. Research limitations/implications – US subsidiaries of four Swedish industrial firms were analysed. The propositions may be turned into hypotheses suitable for tests in statistical studies. A test may include firms from different home countries and subsidiaries on different host country markets. Practical implications – The conceptual framework and the propositions provide a ground for an industrial firm's decision to conduct a strategy of greenfield expansion on a foreign country market once a wholly owned subsidiary has been established. Originality/value – The framework is unique and emphasizes that both knowledge stemming from corporate strategy and knowledge of local competition need to be acknowledged in order to understand firm's greenfield expansion on a foreign country market.

The fashion industry has become an industry with high attention, and in recent years Swedish fashion has become a strong name internationally. At the same time, it is a competitive industry where smaller fashion companies are competing with big clothing chains. For these actors it is important to internationalise and enter foreign markets to be able to grow. This requires resources and capital that many of the smaller fashion companies today is missing; market knowledge, export knowledge and commercial knowledge.  This makes it interesting to see what factors are important for smaller Scandinavian fashion companies to succeed in establishing on the international market. The purpose of this dissertation is to evaluate and analyze conditions for three smaller Scandinavian fashion companies' internationalisation process. The study is based on case studies of these fashion companies. Theories have been chosen according to the background. These highlights the importance for companies to have knowledge of their market, and how internationalisation is a process of knowledge in which they learn something from each step. Furthermore, how companies in some cases follow a particular pattern and how the establishment can be done in specific steps. It may be important to develop relations with actors in their environment.  By different theories, the authors have designed an assumption about what is important for the smaller fashion companies.  In the dissertation we have found that the most significant and important factors are collaborations, available resources internally or externally, and to have knowledge of the market. The expansion of the business as a foreign establishment means that companies need to seek help outside their organization to succeed internationally.

The aim of the thesis is to describe and analyze the potential in a new and foreign market and the market we chose to define is Lebanon. We want to see if there is any potential for Swedish fashion companies to establish there and what kind of problems and barriers the companies could bump into if they decide to expand their operations to Lebanon.The theories that the study is based on are Push & Pull, The Uppsala-model, the Internationalization model, international market environments and the entry modes.Lebanon is a potential market for Swedish fashion companies. It is a market with a big consumer group that likes to spend money on fashion. Since Sweden is famous for fashion that comes with both good quality and price, it would profit them if they entered the Lebanese market. Companies should travel to Lebanon and experience the market and the potential there by themselves, before they enter it. It is important that companies which are in the starting hole to expand to a newmarket collect as much information as possible about it before establishing there to be able to succeed.
Program: Magisterutbildning i Fashion Management

In the wake of globalization, an increasing amount of firms must consider internationalization strategies to remain competitive. The strategic decision of where to expand is complex by nature. This is particularly true for retailers, and despite this being generally accepted, relatively little is in fact known about retailers ́ choice of foreign markets. Hence, this study investigates international market selection (IMS) strategies of Swedish retailers with global operations. The purpose of this study is twofold; first, to explore which criteria Swedish retailers use upon making international market selection decisions and investigate the relative importance among these criteria. Second, to assess the possibilities of creating a weighted IMS model for retailers, which can be use as guidance for marketing practitioners. The research questions which will be answered are: How do Swedish international retailers select foreign markets? What are the possibilities of creating a weighted IMS model for retailers? The study embraces a qualitative strategy with an exploratory research approach and a multiple case study design. Through extensive literature review, a conceptual framework is constructed, and subsequently developed, post gaining insight in practitioners’ reasoning. The empirical data was gathered through interviews with managers of Swedish retailers with international presence, as well as strategy consultants who routinely work with strategy conformation for Swedish retailers. Our findings show that criteria which influence IMS decisions among Swedish retailers are quite similar among firms and can be arranged under three main categories; market attractiveness, psychic distance and internal factors. Moreover, as a result of the empirical findings, we suggest previous IMS research lack one important factor which influences the IMS decisions, namely “gut-feeling”/coincidence. The relative importance among factors proved to vary among firms. Consequently, four concepts aiming at explaining the variations were developed. The four concepts include firm size, firm objective, industry of the firm, and ownership structure. Finally, with support from respondents, we arrived at a conclusion suggesting that construction of a weighted IMS model for all types of retailers is unfeasible. However, if the scope is limited to only include firms of similar characteristics as proposed by the four concepts, such model could potentially yield solid validity.

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) make the backbone of virtually all economies but most of them are only marginally engaged with global markets, particularly those from developing countries. Our ability to advise these firms is currently limited for two major reasons: on the one hand, conventional International Business literature treats the firm as a black box and does not advance in decision-making dynamics that are critical to SMEs' foreign expansion; on the other, recent SME internationalization studies have achieved important progress but seem dependent on the use of Effectuation theory to represent the decisions that guide SME internationalization. This thesis focuses on closing this gap, developing a treatment of SME internationalization that focuses specifically on characterising internationalization-related decisions as being based on firms’ control of their own means, which allow them to proactively create opportunities and take advantage of contingencies (that is, the control principle). Empirically, this thesis builds on a quantitative research design based on survey data collected from 851 SMEs distributed in Brazil, China, Italy, Poland, and Sweden. Analyses of these data were performed with multiple regression equations and structural equation modelling using partial least squares. Results show that SMEs seem more inclined to adopt control-based decisions during internationalization when under uncertainties related to their business networks and when they come from emerging markets. They also reveal that the paths toward the realization of international market performance with control-based decisions seem to involve both firm-level and individual-level dynamics, with social networking playing a critical role. Finally, the findings collectively make it possible to draw a picture that clarifies the conceptualization of the control principle and hints on the multi-level nature of control-based internationalization. Despite limitations, such findings contribute to both International Business and International Entrepreneurship literatures while advancing extant understanding of the nature of the control principle and its role in SME internationalization.

The diploma thesis focuses on the issue of the international marketing mix of a Czech company entering the German market. It specifies the motives and forms of entering the foreign market and defines the individual components of the international marketing mix. It contains a suggestion for a suitable form of entry, elaboration of an international marketing mix of the company and based on a survey of competitive prices of selected products, it recommends choosing a suitable pricing strategy when entering a foreign market.

Thesis focuses on principes of multilevel marketing in the example of entering the russian market. On the example of one chosen company shows the ways and methods of foreign expansion. Thesis also focuses on description of russian market and its business principles. Thesis shows the oportunities of doing business through structural company, in the meaning of multilevel marketing and its benefits.

Restaurants, bars or cafés will always serve as places for social interaction and so they are an essential part of human life. In each country around the world, it is a place for meeting people and communication. The mission of Storyous company is to help its clients to create a pleasant atmosphere in their food service business by providing next generation POS system not only in the Czech Republic but also in Poland. The company has already experience with the electronic sales reporting that brings considerations about another international market for its expansion. The aim of the thesis is to analyze the Italian market, mainly the sector of gastronomy services and qualify and quantify the customer base in Italy. At the same time, the structure of competitors along with a brief sample of them will be introduced. The timing for the Italian market entry, the gross initial costs and the rate of product adaption will be discussed on the basis of PEST analysis and Porter Five strenghts model analysis. In the conclusion author of the thesis recommends further steps for more detailed analysis.

This diploma thesis is focused on the expansion of a selected company in a foreign market. The main goal is to determine if the company should enter a foreign market. The first part of the diploma thesis is devoted to theoretical knowledge in the area of expansion of the company in a foreign markets. In the analytical part will be performed analyzes that are important for this diploma thesis. In the practical part of the thesis I will introduce the company, propose a strategy for entering a foreign market and evaluate the whole proposal.

The goal of this paper was to measure and assess the international expansion of independent ground handling providers. Based on the results of individual measurements, we can state that each of the five most important independent providers of groundhandling services selected by us has already undergone a significant international expansion, and thus currently prefers the service of foreign airports to domestic ones. Globalization and the liberalization of the entire aviation sector have largely contributed to this fact, mainly due to the unlocking of market entry and the creation of more favorable conditions on foreign markets. Among the secondary objectives we have included an analysis of the state of the ground handling sector together with an analysis of the European liberalization Directive 96/67 / EC and its impact on the European groundhandling market. The main findings were that for example prices for the provision of ground handling services fell more sharply, while the quality of services increased and the number of providers at airports generally increased, which helped to increase the market share of third-party ground handling providers. The motive for the elaboration of the paper was the outdatedness of previous studies aimed at assessing the international expansion of ground handling service providers. Another motive was the elaboration of a proposal for a measurement method with regard to the performance of providers in foreign markets. The paper presents individual calculations with current input data and classification of providers in terms of the shape of global expansion, taking into account the current ongoing global pandemic Covid-19

It is propounded that there are two motivations behind foreign direct investments (FDI). One of them is to invest in foreign countries because of trade barrier to export. In this case foreign investors operate in import substitution industries (ISI). The second fact to invest in another country away from homeland is to get benefit from cost advantages such as cheap labor and inputs, positioning closed to developed countries. With this aspect foreign investors operate in export oriented sectors (EOS). The economic consequences were discussed lighting on study’s aim examining the FDI to Transitions Countries whether are ISI or EOS. The foreign direct investments to Transitions Countries were investigated by panel data analysis. First and second generation unit root tests and cross section dependency tests were applied. Long and short term regressions were realized. The data set were obtained from Word Bank Data Base and annually data were collected between 1993 and 2012. Theoretically and statistically expected coefficients and coefficient’s sign for explanatory variables have been obtained. It is as a result observed that the countries have higher internal market potential to take foreign direct investments to import substitution industries. The countries close to developed economies have been drawing foreign direct investments to export oriented sectors.

In modern conditions of global information space and comprehensive expansion of foreign economic relations shaped society demand for lawyers with skills of applying the conflict rules of private international law and practices in foreign countries. Buying legal services in a foreign country significantly expands the composition of the legal means of advocacy and provides access to local infrastructure and communication. Mastering the skills of applying the conflict rules of national and international law entails: 1) conduct advocacy at a high level; 2) expansion of the market of legal services; 3) the development of new legal technologies. 4) full participation in international cooperation networks of advocates; 5) professional development. The author of this article refers to the number of lawyers authorised to practice law in Germany and in Russia, so many suggestions are based on my own experience of the author.

Construction sector in Turkey is one of the sectors that directly contribute to the national economy. The large volume projects done in the international arena shows that there is a major breakthrough in the Turkish construction sector. Turkish construction companies, which undertake an enormous amount of work in about ninety countries, have the second largest work capacity after China in the world. This shows clearly how much active the Turkey's foreign expansion strategy of the construction industry. When we look at the industry in general, it seems to be disastrous in innovation management compared to contracting services. In this respect, the various innovation studies must be made and the sector must be evaluated with all its parameters based on these innovation studies. The aim of this study is to examine the importance of innovation in the construction industry and to investigate economical effects. Within the context of the study, the importance of the construction sector in Turkey is firstly examined. Later, the importance of innovation activities in the construction sector is emphasized based on the available data. Consequently, the steps taken by the governments and employers are discussed on the subject of innovation studies in order to increase Turkey's competitiveness in the international market.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Since the early 1980s, the Fogera Plain has been one of Ethiopia's major rice production areas. The introduction of rice, its commercialisation and the subsequent increased surplus production has led to the ability of smallholder rice farmers to intensify their production through diverse investments, mainly in supplementary irrigation. This has also enabled rice farmers to diversify crop production, mainly during the off-season, through the production of high-value crops like vegetables. Despite this expansion, a recent visit to the Fogera Plain by the authors revealed that most smallholder rice farmers were not able to sell their onions due to the collapse of local markets. To investigate this collapse further, this paper follows the authors' investigation of farmer investments in producing onion, their responses to the collapse of the onion market, and the implications for rural livelihood improvement within the Fogera Plain.

The Colombian financial system has not suffered major structural disruptions during these months of deep economic contraction and has continued to carry out its basic functions as usual, thus facilitating the economy's response to extreme conditions. This is the result of the soundness of financial institutions at the beginning of the crisis, which was reflected in high liquidity and capital adequacy indicators as well as in the timely response of various authorities. Banco de la República lowered its policy interest rates 250 points to 1.75%, the lowest level since the creation of the new independent bank in 1991, and provided ample temporary and permanent liquidity in both pesos and foreign currency. The Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia, in turn, adopted prudential measures to facilitate changes in the conditions for loans in effect and temporary rules for rating and loan-loss provisions. Finally, the national government expanded the transfers as well as the guaranteed credit programs for the economy. The supply of real credit (i.e. discounting inflation) in the economy is 4% higher today than it was 12 months ago with especially marked growth in the housing (5.6%) and commercial (4.7%) loan portfolios (2.3% in consumer and -0.1% in microloans), but there have been significant changes over time. During the first few months of the quarantine, firms increased their demands for liquidity sharply while consumers reduced theirs. Since then, the growth of credit to firms has tended to slow down, while consumer and housing credit has grown. The financial system has responded satisfactorily to the changes in the respective demands of each group or sector and loans may grow at high rates in 2021 if GDP grows at rates close to 4.6% as the technical staff at the Bank expects; but the forecasts are highly uncertain. After the strict quarantine implemented by authorities in Colombia, the turmoil seen in March and early April, which was evident in the sudden reddening of macroeconomic variables on the risk heatmap in Graph A,[1] and the drop in crude oil and coal prices (note the high volatility registered in market risk for the region on Graph A) the local financial markets stabilized relatively quickly. Banco de la República’s credible and sustained policy response played a decisive role in this stabilization in terms of liquidity provision through a sharp expansion of repo operations (and changes in amounts, terms, counterparties, and eligible instruments), the purchases of public and private debt, and the reduction in bank reserve requirements. In this respect, there is now abundant aggregate liquidity and significant improvements in the liquidity position of investment funds. In this context, the main vulnerability factor for financial stability in the short term is still the high degree of uncertainty surrounding loan quality. First, the future trajectory of the number of people infected and deceased by the virus and the possible need for additional health measures is uncertain. For that reason, there is also uncertainty about the path for economic recovery in the short and medium term. Second, the degree to which the current shock will be reflected in loan quality once the risk materializes in banks’ financial statements is uncertain. For the time being, the credit risk heatmap (Graph B) indicates that non-performing and risky loans have not shown major deterioration, but past experience indicates that periods of sharp economic slowdown eventually tend to coincide with rises in non-performing loans: the calculations included in this report suggest that the impact of the recession on credit quality could be significant in the short term. This is particularly worrying since the profitability of credit establishments has been declining in recent months, and this could affect their ability to provide credit to the real sector of the economy. In order to adopt a forward-looking approach to this vulnerability, this Report presents several stress tests that evaluate the resilience of the liquidity and capital adequacy of credit institutions and investment funds in the event of a hypothetical scenario that seeks to simulate an extreme version of current macroeconomic conditions. The results suggest that even though there could be strong impacts on the credit institutions’ volume of credit and profitability under such scenarios, aggregate indicators of total and core capital adequacy will probably remain at levels that are above the regulatory limits over the horizon of a year. At the same time, the exercises highlight the high capacity of the system's liquidity to face adverse scenarios. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system's security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions that are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the flow of sufficient credit and liquidity resources, and further the smooth operation of the payment systems. Juan José Echavarría Governor