Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „ETC buildings“

As representative vulnerable regions of the city, dense distribution areas of temporary color steel building are a major target for control of fire risks, illegal buildings, environmental supervision, urbanization quality and enhancement for city’s image. In the domestic and foreign literature, the related research mainly focuses on fire risks and violation monitoring. However, due to temporary color steel building’s special characteristics, the corresponding research about temporal and spatial distribution, and influence on urban spatial form etc. has not been reported. Therefore, firstly, the paper research aim plans to extract information of large-scale color steel building from high-resolution images. Secondly, the color steel plate buildings were classified, and the spatial and temporal distribution and aggregation characteristics of small (temporary buildings) and large (factory building, warehouse, etc.) buildings were studied respectively. Thirdly, the coupling relationship between the spatial distribution of color steel plate and the spatial pattern of urban space was analysed. The results show that there is a good coupling relationship between the color steel plate building and the urban spatial form. Different types of color steel plate building represent the pattern of regional differentiation of urban space and the phased pattern of urban development.

This paper analyzes the concrete measures to the starting point of the Chinese Green Building's Implementation, and puts forward some suggestions on China's development of green building, which is to strengthen the publicity and legal system construction, perfect the relevant evaluation system, vigorously promote new technology and new method of green building, and strengthen the leading effect of outstanding buildings etc.

The rising interest in low energy building has led to an inflation in related terminology: (nearly) zero energy buildings, or (n)ZEBs, passive houses, positive energy buildings and districts, off-grid buildings, energy autarkic buildings, etc. Each of these terms involves (sometimes subtle) differences in interpretations, system boundaries, included energy end uses, etc. This paper maps the differences and overlaps in applications of various cases of residential High Energy Performance Buildings (HEPBs), aiming to contribute in the development of a novel taxonomy to evaluate the extent to which a building can be considered energy or carbon neutral. Three dimensions are suggested for specification in novel taxonomy for HEPBs: (i) the spatial dimension (energy use, locally renewable energy production and sometimes energy storage), (ii) the time dimension (during which period is the building and its systems balanced, e.g. yearly or momentary) and (iii) the end-use dimension (these are the end-uses that are included or excluded for the calculation of the total energy needs of the buildings).

Historic buildings that have survived to the present day have been subject to maintenance, repair, and overhaul. Repair work is being carried out so that it can be enjoyed by future generations. However, there have been changes in the construction technology: some construction products have been discontinued and replaced with others of different quality parameters, lower prices, etc. It is necessary to use substitute products during construction work—that is, replacement products that are shaped after the original. Therefore, there is a problem of selecting the best possible substitute material, taking into account many important factors, including the recommendations and requirements of the conservator. This paper presents a methodology for the process of material substitution planning and selection of a substitute with the use of multicriteria analysis, by implementing it in the refurbishment of a historic building façade.

Energy labeling of buildings is accepted and used in all European countries. Depending on the yearly specific primary energy consumption the energy quality of a building is expressed using a country specific method. Consequently primary energy is the basis of building energy class. Primary energy is obtained using different country specific transformation factors for gas, electricity, wood, biomass etc. However different quantities of warm water and steam can have the same energy content. Calculating the exergy content of used energy a better classification of buildings can be achieved. This paper presents a method to analyze residential buildings from exergy point of view. It was found a transformation factor between energy and exergy: 0.075.

Purpose Green building construction was adopted as a strategy to reduce energy consumption and the overall impact of the built environment on our natural environment. However, in Malaysia, previous studies have reaffirmed that green office buildings consume a substantial amount of energy, compared to their counterparts in Singapore. Moreover, there is still a significant performance gap between predicted energy measurements and actual operational energy consumption of green office buildings in Malaysia, due to occupants’ behavioural discrepancies. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to develop energy efficiency practices for occupants of green office buildings in Malaysia. The developed practices integrate technology, organisation policy, and occupants’ behavioural strategies, in order to reduce the energy consumption of green office buildings in Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach To achieve the research goal, a mixed (quantitative and qualitative) research method was used to collect data from the research population. In total, 53 respondents working in a green office building complex in Kuala Lumpur Malaysia were surveyed using a questionnaire. Additionally, three top management staff of the green office building and two Malaysian construction professionals were interviewed. The study adopted convenience sampling technique in selecting the research respondents. The data from the questionnaire were analysed using SPSS software (version 22) while the interview data were analysed via thematic content analysis. Findings The findings suggest that the integration of technological strategy (use of BIM tools, sustainable building materials, etc.); organisational strategy (develop, implement and evaluate action plans, use of monitor/control systems, etc.); and occupants behavioural strategy (training, incentives, occupants energy efficiency guide, etc.) will critically reduce energy consumption of green office buildings in Malaysia. Originality/value Based on the findings, energy efficiency practices are developed to guide occupants in reducing the energy consumption of green office buildings in Malaysia. This strategy will contribute to reducing the performance gap that exists between predicted energy and actual energy use of green office buildings in Malaysia. However, the developed energy efficiency practices need to be validated to ascertain its workability in the green office building context.

Most of the urban housing stock in Latvia as well as in major part of EU cities is apartment multi-storey buildings, most of which have a connection to centralized hot tap water systems. Also, such buildings as dormitories, university campuses, sporting facilities, mostly are connected to the centralized hot tap water systems. The hot tap water systems can have different optional technical solutions, such as recirculation loop, bath towels warmers, etc. All these options affect calculation’s specifics of the systems. The main challenge for designers is to make correct estimation of hydraulic losses, definition of necessary water flow rate and to choose such technical equipment as circulation pumps, balancing valves and circulation water flow. The main parameters directly affecting the sizing of hot tap water system are the number of inhabitants, designed water consumption, consumption uncertainty coefficient, building’s specifics etc. This study is based on the hot water consumption analysis in building were online monitoring system was installed.

Most of the urban housing stock in Latvia as well as in major part of EU cities is apartment multi-storey buildings, most of which have a connection to centralized hot tap water systems. Also, such buildings as dormitories, university campuses, sporting facilities, mostly are connected to the centralized hot tap water systems. The hot tap water systems can have different optional technical solutions, such as recirculation loop, bath towels warmers, etc. All these options affect calculation’s specifics of the systems. The main challenge for designers is to make correct estimation of hydraulic losses, definition of necessary water flow rate and to choose such technical equipment as circulation pumps, balancing valves and circulation water flow. The main parameters directly affecting the sizing of hot tap water system are the number of inhabitants, designed water consumption, consumption uncertainty coefficient, building’s specifics etc. This study is based on the hot water consumption analysis in building were online monitoring system was installed.

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> The survey phase is an essential prerequisite for effective management and improvement of existing buildings. The low accessibility of information regarding the design and construction phases and the current state of the buildings, are the main causes of inefficient actions on existing buildings. The lack of “As Built” documentation (building components, installations, etc.) and the complex task of detecting their current status in terms of use (intended use and space dimensions, environmental context, etc.) and maintenance (conservation status of building components, age of the technological installations, previous maintenance work, compliance with current regulations, etc.) causes deep difficulties in planning, scheduling and controlling appropriate interventions. Starting from these assumptions, this paper shows the findings of a research, aimed at testing the integrated use of Building Information Modeling (BIM) and 3D Geographic Information Systems (3D GIS) in order to structure knowledge. The research concerns a case study and it has actually led to the development of a BIM- 3D GIS workflow which formalizes knowledge and information involved of a significant building, according to its management: the INA houses by Enrico Mandolesi, a residential complex for about 2500 inhabitants built around 1960 in the eastern suburbs of Cagliari (Italy).</p>

Abstract There are many iconic high rise buildings in Hong Kong, for example, International Commercial Centre, International Financial Centre, etc. Fire safety issue in high rise buildings has been raised by local fire professionals in terms of occupant evacuation, means of fire-fighting by fire fighters, sprinkler systems to automatically put off fires in buildings, etc. Fire risk becomes an important issue in building fire safety because it relates to life safety of building occupants where they live and work in high rise buildings in Hong Kong. The aim of this research is to identify the fire risk for different types of high rise buildings in Hong Kong and to optimise the fire prevention management for those high rise buildings with higher level of fire risk and to validate the model and also to carry out the study of the conflict between the current fire safety building code and the current trend of green building design. Survey via the 7-point scale questionnaire was conducted through 50 participants and their responses were received and analysed via the statistical tool SPSS software computer program. A number of statistical methods of testing for significantly difference in samples were adopted to carry out the analysis of the data received. When the statistical analysis was completed, the results of the data analysis were validated by two Fire Safety Experts in this area of specialisation and also by quantitative fire risk analysis.

This thesis has explored the development of the automobile showroom as a twentieth century building type. The showrooms of Indianapolis, Indiana were used as the primary source of physical evidence. Buildings erected specifically for sales and service of automobiles between 1900 and 1955 chosen. The development was traced in regards to size and layout of the departments. The involvement of manufacturers, dealers and architects was also traced.
Department of Architecture

Reeveston Place is a neighborhood located on the southeast side of Richmond, Indiana. All of Richmond's National Register residential areas contain examples of the popular architectural styles of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Reeveston, however, is a unique Richmond neighborhood because its plan and development were primarily influenced by the trends and styles of the early and mid-twentieth century.Economic and cultural influences before, between and after both world wars, and the impact of the automobile were factors that made Reeveston an area different from its predecessors. Building activity occurred in the neighborhood for nearly a half-century, and the result is an eclectic mix of architectural styles. As it grew, Reeveston was primarily a neighborhood for the upper-middle class and upper-class citizens of Richmond, and several prominent architects were employed to design the houses. Reeveston's historical and architectural significance warrant its consideration for inclusion in the National Register.
Department of Architecture

This thesis is an investigation of the relationship between the mass media and urban space, which takes as its object of analysis the concentration of newspaper buildings on Park Row in New York in the second half of the nineteenth century. By analysing five major New York newspapers and the architecture which housed them, commonalities in form, style and structure are revealed which are based on notions of display, spectacle, advertisement, order, and sensationalism. As daily newspapers achieved greater status in nineteenth century cities, their buildings increasingly took on Italian Renaissance, French Second Empire and Gothic forms, and became among the first skyscrapers in America. This thesis documents the designs and decisions of the construction process, as well as the interpretations and justifications of the chosen styles that were offered in the newspapers, in order to explain the form and meaning of this important phenomenon of American media history.

This creative project thesis is an exploration of the connected experiences in light, space and time, developed through the 'making'of architecture. The process began with the concept of 'installation', in which the practice evolves from a vast spectrum of disciplines. The objective is to create an alternative spatial experience, occurring within an existing building. A piece of architecture through which the environment may be activated by the presence of light, material and man . An abandoned old building was chosen as the site in which to create the project. The repair and the creation of the new combined, creating the installation of a space which both respects and evolves from the existing. The process of rehabilitation and the 'making' of architecture offering a variety of interactive opportunities; of dialogue and language which furthers the understanding of society and the conception of architecture.
Department of Architecture

Purpose: The purpose with this project was to evaluate the environmental, social, and economic aspects regarding two climate positive buildings in Västerås municipality in Sweden. The company responsible for the buildings, ETC Bygg AB, has assigned this task tothe research group Future Energy Center (FEC) at Mälardalen University. Method: The buildings was simulated with the programs IDA ICE and PVGIS to obtain the overall energy consumption and building efficiency as well as the PV system potential. Regarding transportation, vehicle and driver statistics was studied and adapted to the case study to estimate the tenant’s climate impact. Results: The results showed that the electricity obtained from the PV system both covers the building’s, and tenant’s estimated yearly electricity consumption, but also with a surplus available for storage or selling. The simulatedresults were compared to several previous studies with similar outcome, but with slightly different results. The tenants need for climate friendly transportation resulted in a suggestion of an electric mobility station consisting of electric cars, mopeds, and bicycles to lower the tenants carbon mitigation, costs, and energy consumption. Conclusions: Conclusions from the study was that the buildings meet both the BBR, and the FEBY18 Gold requirements with their high energy efficiency, as well as that the solar power system most likely will produce enough energy to cover both building, and tenant power consumption. A conclusion can be made that the transition to electric transportation have a potential to save both a considerable amount of energy and money for the tenants, but also the possibility to lower their collective yearly carbon mitigation. Also, that the life in a climate positive building have mostly, if not only, positive impacts on its residents.

This creative project, "A Survey of Pre-World War II Architecture in Greenville, Illinois," involved completing a windshield survey and a more comprehensive study of designated areas in order to identify resources which are significant to the historic character of Greenville's commercial district and residential neighborhoods. Greenville, Illinois is a small, rural city in south central Illinois having a population of about 5,500. A general lack of awareness to the architectural and historical resources in Greenville's residential neighborhoods has been present for some time, which has resulted in demolitions and endangered buildings. This survey will help promote public awareness of Greenville's architectural resources, which is a first step toward preserving these resources. An article by Thomas J. Powell supports this view, "Today, the cultural-resources survey is recognized as the underpinning of any successful preservation effort, and not just in big arenas like Chicago and Washington, D.C." Now is the best time to create public awareness to the historic resources still existent in Greenville and the need to preserve these irreplaceable structures. The groundwork for a more extensive preservation movement in Greenville has been laid with its participation in the National Main Street Program. This creative project will provide many opportunities to educate the public by defining possible historic districts, identifying and explaining the dominant styles and types of architecture present and by making recommendations for future use of the survey. It will also serve as a useful tool to promote historic preservation, to raise public awareness to Greenville's historic architecture, and as a starting point for a continuing survey of Greenville's historic resources.
Department of Architecture

The structure now owned by Redeemer Presbyterian Church in Indianapolis, IN was built in 1903 at 16th and Delaware Streets by a very prominent congregation, the First Presbyterian Church. Since its construction, the building has been subject to a rehabilitation that destroyed many historic features of the building, followed by abandonment that led to its overall deterioration. For the past four years the building has been occupied once again following a partial rehabilitation.This study found that the building was historically intact on the exterior, but problems such as the deterioration of the limestone were threatening the overall integrity of the structure. The interior, which had been subject to many alterations as part of a 1958 renovation, was fully functional and in good condition but was missing many historic features.This study makes recommendations for repairs on the exterior and an interior rehabilitation that restores some missing historic features, and promotes the retention and stewardship of the existing historic features within the building.
Department of Architecture

The purpose of this report is to get an overview of the CO2 reduction possibilities when adopting different renewable energy source, when the case studied building sustains a district heating network connection and when not, and how the renewable energy source flexibilities (Solar and Wind) differ depending on region. The method regards a ETC house that falls into the climate positive category and assesses the reduction when comparing CO2 emissions form the energy demand. The result for the flexibilities is then compared to the BBR demand. The result shows a difference of around 10% in production for the flexibilities when comparing the northern and middle region with the southern. And a decrease between 19-36% gCO2. Comparing a scenario with and without a connection to the district heating network showed that when the ground source heat pump offsets the energy demand, CO2, and cost reductions (6 and 4% respectively) can be seen. With an average installation cost, the payback period for the ground source heat pump can be estimated to be around 4 year. In conclusion the thesis project shows that the climate is a ruling factor when assessing energy questions for the residential sector. It also shows the difference in CO2 and cost that comes with it can be reduced and help mitigated the sectors effects on the environment. This in turn shows that the overall reduction of CO2 for the case studied building follows the demands and goals set by the European commission and gives motivation to expand the construction as cost is also reduced.

AbstractMediterranean deep retrofit markets are characterized by common barriers and bottlenecks, which barely have been identified as shared challenges, and this has led to a lack of dedicated solutions and to a substantial delay in achieving the 2020 EU policy targets. This situation is addressed by the H2020 HAPPEN project by proposing a new MedZEB approach characterized by the following features: Holistic, i.e., aimed at integrating the most relevant aspects of the retrofitting supply chain; Transparent, i.e., aimed at putting on the market novel tools for enhancing investors’ trust; Adaptive, i.e., aimed at enhancing “added values” of the retrofitting such as flexibility, well-being, etc. Having arrived at its midpoint, HAPPEN has produced an advanced version of its main outputs, among which are: the HAPPEN cost-optimal technical solutions, developed according to a step-by-step logic; the HAPPEN financial solution, fully integrated with the step-by-step logic, and aimed at funding the retrofitting process by relying on the energy savings achieved; the MedZEB protocol conceived as a guarantee scheme for the achievement of retrofit targets; the HAPPEN platform, an assisted digital marketplace aimed at matching demand and offer according to a one-stop-shop logic, at defragmenting the retrofit value chain, and at supporting actors with dedicated tools. These outputs have been developed also thanks to an extensive living laboratory and pilot-building program, carried out within ten pilot sites across seven EU Med countries; this has made it possible for a large engagement of potential users, which resulted in the ideation of the HAPPEN program, an overall framework aimed at integrating project outputs into an exploitable renovation procedure powered by the HAPPEN platform. This paper describes the first simulation of such a procedure in its entirety based on a real case study. After characterizing the building according to the HAPPEN reference buildings and climates lists, a step-by-step cost-optimal package of solutions was calculated, followed by the application of the HAPPEN financial solution, and by the draft issue of the MedZEB protocol. Results provide the first evidence of the effectiveness of the MedZEB approach in potentially unlocking the deep retrofit market in the Med area, with special attention to the possibility of funding the interventions by relying on the economies generated by the energy savings achieved. Further, the project activities will be aimed at co-creating, together with relevant stakeholders, a go-to-market strategy for the HAPPEN program.

AbstractRecently, the mainstream gradually has become replacing neighborhood-style communities with high-density residences. The original pleasant scale and enclosed residential spaces have been broken, and the traditional neighborhood relations are going away. This research uses machine learning to train the model to generate a new plan, which is used in today’s residential design. First, in order to obtain a better generation effect, this study extracts the transcendental information of the neighborhood community in north of China, using roads, buildings etc. as morphological representations; GauGAN, compared to the pix2pix and pix2pixHD, used by predecessors, can achieve a clearer and a more diversified output and also fit irregular contours more realistically. ANN model trained by 167 general layout samples of a neighborhood community in north of China from 1950s to 1970s can generate various general layouts in different shapes and scales. The experiment proves that GauGAN is more suitable for general layout generation than pix2pix (pix2pixHD); Distributed training can improve the clarity of the generation and allow later vectorization to be more convenient.

AbstractThe increase of land plots with unknown owners, namely, land plots whose owner’s name and address are not easily identifiable through repeated inheritance, etc., has emerged as a prominent social issue. The major reason for this phenomenon is the Civil Code that unconditionally allows the sharing of real estate by an unlimited number of co-owners, for one thing, and the registration system of real estate that does not require the true owner to register and thus does not show the real rights of real estate, for another. To reduce the increase of land plots with unknown owners as a proactive measure and to utilize them as a reactive measure, it is necessary to establish the one-owner principle with a ban of the sharing of real estate even through inheritance, to abolish fixed asset tax on buildings and houses, to require the new owner of real estate to register the right upon the transfer of ownership and for the registration office to make it public, to amend the Land Expropriation Act to facilitate the purchase of the land plots for public purpose without owner identification, to create an institutional arrangement that allows the will of the owner to be fictionally replaced, and to amend the Civil Code to allow the disposal of shared real estate by the majority of the co-owners.

AbstractBetween 1994 and 2006, an 18% increase of freshwater flow into the earth’s ocean was recorded, as well as extreme weather events such as prolonged drought and intense floods. Following this period was an era of increased evaporation from oceans and seas, which heightened global warming in Africa. This chapter proposes the use of man-made aquifers recharge processes as methods of draining water into the soil before the runoff water reaches water bodies. Source control involves controlling the volume of water entering drainage systems or rivers by cutting off runoff water through storing for reuse or evapotranspiration as seen in green roofs. Pre-treatment is the use of trenches to filter and remove contaminants from water before getting to water bodies. Retention systems on the other hand is controlling the rate at which water is discharged to waterways by providing water storage areas such as ponds, water retention areas, etc., while Infiltration Systems are areas that allow natural soaking of stormwater runoff to the ground naturally recharging the water table. The proposed methods will see replenishing of the water table, a great leap in the efforts of curbing global warming. This practice can easily be adopted by both individuals and government as we build more and more buildings creating a balance between the need for human settlement and the natural way of water replenishing itself. The methods do not introduce extra costs to an already existing budget. In some cases, the methods help to reduce the costs of projects especially in urban areas. Africa which hosts many of the growing countries sees and will continue to experience surges in urbanization. For such, these methods presented in this topic will be, if implemented, a best method to solve the urban drainage problems before this even occurs.

AbstractBetween 1994 and 2006, an 18% increase of freshwater flow into the earth’s ocean was recorded, as well as extreme weather events such as prolonged drought and intense floods. Following this period was an era of increased evaporation from oceans and seas, which heightened global warming in Africa. This chapter proposes the use of man-made aquifers recharge processes as methods of draining water into the soil before the runoff water reaches water bodies. Source control involves controlling the volume of water entering drainage systems or rivers by cutting off runoff water through storing for reuse or evapotranspiration as seen in green roofs. Pre-treatment is the use of trenches to filter and remove contaminants from water before getting to water bodies. Retention systems on the other hand is controlling the rate at which water is discharged to waterways by providing water storage areas such as ponds, water retention areas, etc., while Infiltration Systems are areas that allow natural soaking of stormwater runoff to the ground naturally recharging the water table. The proposed methods will see replenishing of the water table, a great leap in the efforts of curbing global warming. This practice can easily be adopted by both individuals and government as we build more and more buildings creating a balance between the need for human settlement and the natural way of water replenishing itself. The methods do not introduce extra costs to an already existing budget. In some cases, the methods help to reduce the costs of projects especially in urban areas. Africa which hosts many of the growing countries sees and will continue to experience surges in urbanization. For such, these methods presented in this topic will be, if implemented, a best method to solve the urban drainage problems before this even occurs.

<p>After destructive earthquakes occurred in Italy between 2009 and 2016, the Italian Parliament approved in 2017 a new version of the Sisma Bonus, which includes Guidelines for the classification of the seismic risk of buildings. In Sisma Bonus, the seismic risk is evaluated through two methods: simplified or detailed. In this paper, the simplified approach is integrated into a Building Information Modelling (BIM) software, Autodesk Revit. The vulnerability assessment of existing masonry buildings is performed following the macroseismic approach (EMS-98). Various masonry-building types are assigned to vulnerability classes with a specific seismic vulnerability index. The procedure proposes to evaluate a final vulnerability index as a quantitative evaluation, instead of the qualitative one by EMS-98. Vulnerability analysis is inserted directly in Revit to create an interaction between BIM and seismic scenarios. Features that characterise each masonry type are inserted into newly created Revit Templates. Two additional modifiers account for mechanical aspects of masonry (mortar quality, transversal connections, etc.) and global building behaviour (vertical and in-plane irregularities, presence of anti-seismic devices, etc.). A flowchart developed in Dynamo automates the vulnerability index calculation using features of the BIM model.</p>

Energy Performance of Buildings should include a general framework for the calculation of energy performance and building categories together with thermal characteristics of building, air conditioning, ventilation, lighting and appliances aspects considered. These include Active solar systems contribution to domestic water heating based on renewable energy sources, CPH production and District cooling systems. This paper reviews the energy sources available in Egypt, their distribution and utilization in commercial sectors. The paper demonstrates the importance of incorporating an energy performance directive as a Standard in our region such a goal will aid energy savings in large buildings and set regulations to energy efficient designs that are based on Standard calculation methods. The proposed Standard would be largely based on International Standards and appropriately modified to suit local practices. The target is to develop standardized tools for the calculation of the energy performance of buildings, with defined system boundaries for the different building categories and different cooling/heating systems. The present work is to provide transparent information regarding output data (reference values, benchmarks, etc.) and to define comparable energy related key values (kWh/m2, kWh per person, kWh per apartment, kWh per produced unit etc.). Proposals to develop a common procedure for an “energy performance certificate” and CO2 emissions are given.

The United States is well known for the birthplace of tall buildings in the world since the nineteenth century. The trend continued across all continents and in 1940, Europe developed its first tall building of over 100 meters in Genoa, Italy. Building codes, technological development, energy crisis, etc. have all influenced the built environment in different ways, a very visible sign of such impacts can be seen in high rise buildings not only on their architectural style but also on their performance. Different studies worldwide investigate energy performance of modern high-rise buildings; however, evolution of such buildings is rarely considered; energy performance of different high-rise buildings’ generations is seldom investigated and compared. To close a gap this study aims to make a closer look of how technological developments and energy crisis affected high-rise buildings in Europe with a focus on their energy performance.

LCA is a method that systematically evaluates environmental impacts attributed to the building by quantifying environmental inputs and outputs over the lifecycle of buildings. LCA facilitates a sophisticated assessment procedure to promote eco-efficient designs to reduce environmental impacts. Although building-related LCAs are well-rooted in developed counties, it is challenging to disclose evidence of LCA application in Sri Lanka as a developing country. Therefore, this study aims to compare drivers that promote the application of LCA in developed countries and Sri Lanka to determine the deviation between two contexts. The qualitative research approach was adopted, and expert interviews were conducted with ten experts from Sri Lanka and nine LCA experts representing developed countries. The results indicated that 'identifying opportunities to improve environmental sustainability,' discovering energy-saving opportunities' etc. are the mostly identified drivers related to developed countries. In contrast, the mostly identified drivers in Sri Lanka were limited to two as 'growing industrial interest to build more green buildings' and 'as a new tool for R&D'. Initiation of strong government policies and effective incentive mechanisms, rising awareness on LCA, etc. identified as strategies to bridge the deviation between Sri Lanka from developed countries context in the implementation of LCA.

Sustainable (environmentally friendly) modern construction is not limited only to use of natural and environmentally friendly materials. The concept of the construction is an important factor and that is applied to local materials, especially if they come from renewable sources. The sustainable (environmentally friendly) building principles, methods of construction from straw, the essential building requirements for construction from straw are discussed in the article. Straw as a building material used for a very long time, but this usage is often associated with certain mistrust, fears: the building will burn, the mice, rats are attacking, etc. Straw building uses raw materials which are agricultural waste. Buildings constructed from straw decompose in the end of their lifecycle and the construction waste in the area of construction is biodegradable, consequently, it is not necessary to take them away to a landfill. The evaluation of the global and Lithuanian experience of using straw and the structures in which straw are used shows, that the essential requirements can be provided if the straw and timber-framed buildings with straw as a heat insulating material are constructed properly, they use to meet the essential requirements according to the Law on Construction and the European Council and Parliament Regulation No 305/2011.

The horizontal deformation analysis of high-rise buildings, quite often is complicated because buildings like chimneys, towers and etc, have complex and asymmetric shapes, consequently there is not always the possibility to apply the method of single points motion analysis. Furthermore, the horizontal deformation analysis is complicated using standard measurement methods like measurements with electronic total stations or optical theodolites. In such case the terrestrial laser scanner could be superior to traditional measurements. However, the terrestrial laser scanner still not widely used to survey building horizontal deformations using high precision measurements. The main aim of this work is to determine the suitability to measure deflections of buildings from the vertical using terrestrial laser scanners and to investigate point cloud data processing. Measurements of horizontal deformation were carried out using the over ground laser scanner and electronic total station. Horizontal deformations of chimneys of thermal power plants were investigated using corresponding methods. Deformation indicators and evaluated measurement accuracies between different methods were compared. Data analysis of terrestrial laser scanning is more complex, time consuming and requires sophisticated hardware resources in comparison with the traditional methods, however results are much more detailed and informative.

Modular construction has gained popularity and attention particularly in low-rise building lately due to its numerous advantages: faster construction speed, better quality control, reduction in work force and construction waste, etc. This innovative technology promotes off-site manufacturing of modular units and on-site assembly, improving the construction efficiency and productivity. However, modular construction is not commonly used in high-rise buildings because of the joints’ flexibility as well as manufacturing and construction tolerance, which have significant impact on the overall stability of the building. This paper highlights the existing challenges of modular construction of high-rise buildings and provide several options to address these challenges. Firstly, the weight of a module is constrained by the transportation and lifting crane capacities. For this reason, lightweight concrete is introduced together with structural steel section to form lightweight steel-concrete composite system to reduce the weight of the module without compromising the strength and stiffness. Secondly, to speed up the site assembly of modular units, special joints are developed to resist the forces due to gravity and horizontal loads. Fast and easy joining techniques with acceptable tolerance control are essential to ensure the structural integrity and stability of the building. Finally, the innovation for productivity can be maximized by implementing automation technologies in the manufacturing and construction of the modular units.

The Army is required by law (Energy Policy Act of 2005 [EPACT] 2005, U.S. Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 [EISA] 2007) to eliminate fossil fuel use in new and renovated facilities by 2030 and to reduce overall facility energy usage by 30% by 2015. Army policy is to achieve 25 net zero energy installations by 2025 and to achieve net zero energy (NZE) status for all installations by 2058. Achieving NZE will only be possible if an optimum mix of demand reduction and renewable sources are put in place at a community (installation) or building cluster scale. The Army runs what are essentially small campuses, or clusters of buildings on its installations. The Department of Energy (DOE) is focused on the national grid scale or on individual buildings, while the commercial focus is on retrofits to individual buildings There is a lack of tools and case studies that address dynamics of energy systems at the community scale. The Army’s future building energy requirements are a mixture of ultra-low and high energy intensity facilities. Achieving net zero energy economically in these clusters of buildings will require a seamless blend of energy conservation in individual buildings, combined with building systems automation, utility management and control, and power delivery systems with the capability to integrate onsite power generation (including from renewable energy sources) and energy storage. When buildings are handled individually each building is optimized for energy efficiency to the economic energy efficiency optimum and then renewables are added until the building is net zero. This process works for buildings with a low energy intensity process for its mission, such as barracks and administrative buildings. When the mission of the building requires high energy intensity such as in a dining facility, data center, etc., this optimization process either will not end up with a net zero energy building, or large amounts of renewables will be added resulting in the overall technical solution that is not cost effective. But when buildings are clustered together, after each building is designed to its economic energy efficient option, the building cluster is also energy optimized taking advantages of the diversification between energy intensities, scheduling, and waste energy streams utilization. The optimized cluster will minimize the amount of renewables needed to make the building cluster net zero. This paper describes this process and demonstrates it using as an example a cluster of buildings a Brigade Combat Team Complex at Fort Bliss, TX.

The ratio of public heating losses to total heating losses is fixed for a given building. The determination of this ratio is the basis for allocating heating charges fairly and reasonably, and is also the basis for determining the ratio of fixed heating charges to total heating charges. The changing rule of the ratio of public heating losses to total heating losses of 15 residential buildings in north China was researched under different conditions, such as different energy conservation performance, different usage and different layout etc, and drew some referable conclusions.

To promote active transportation modes (such as bike ride and walking), and to create safer communities for easier access to transit, it is essential to provide consolidated data-driven transportation information to the public. The relevant and timely information from data facilitates the improvement of decision-making processes for the establishment of public policy and urban planning for sustainable growth, and for promoting public health in the region. For the characterization of the spatial variation of transportation-emitted air pollution in the Fresno/Clovis neighborhood in California, various species of particulate matters emitted from traffic sources were measured using real-time monitors and GPS loggers at over 100 neighborhood walking routes within 58 census tracts from the previous research, Children’s Health to Air Pollution Study - San Joaquin Valley (CHAPS-SJV). Roadside air pollution data show that PM2.5, black carbon, and PAHs were significantly elevated in the neighborhood walking air samples compared to indoor air or the ambient monitoring station in the Central Fresno area due to the immediate source proximity. The simultaneous parallel measurements in two neighborhoods which are distinctively different areas (High diesel High poverty vs. Low diesel Low poverty) showed that the higher pollution levels were observed when more frequent vehicular activities were occurring around the neighborhoods. Elevated PM2.5 concentrations near the roadways were evident with a high volume of traffic and in regions with more unpaved areas. Neighborhood walking air samples were influenced by immediate roadway traffic conditions, such as encounters with diesel trucks, approaching in close proximity to freeways and/or busy roadways, passing cigarette smokers, and gardening activity. The elevated black carbon concentrations occur near the highway corridors and regions with high diesel traffic and high industry. This project provides consolidated data-driven transportation information to the public including: 1. Transportation-related particle pollution data 2. Spatial analyses of geocoded vehicle emissions 3. Neighborhood characterization for the built environment such as cities, buildings, roads, parks, walkways, etc.

The U.S. national parks have experienced significant climate-change impacts and rapid, on-going changes are expected to continue. Despite the significant climate-change vulnerabilities facing parks, relatively few parks have conducted comprehensive climate-change vulnerability assessments, defined as assessments that synthesize vulnerability information from a wide range of sources, identify key climate-change impacts, and prioritize vulnerable park resources (Michalak et al. In review). In recognition that funding and planning capacity is limited, this project was initiated to identify geographies, parks, and issues that are high priorities for conducting climate-change vulnerability assessments (CCVA) and strategies to efficiently address the need for CCVAs across all U.S. National Park Service (NPS) park units (hereafter “parks”) and all resources. To help identify priority geographies and issues, we quantitatively assessed the relative magnitude of vulnerability factors potentially affecting park resources and values. We identified multiple vulnerability factors (e.g., temperature change, wildfire potential, number of at-risk species, etc.) and sought existing datasets that could be developed into indicators of these factors. To be included in the study, datasets had to be spatially explicit or already summarized for individual parks and provide consistent data for at least all parks within the contiguous U.S. (CONUS). The need for consistent data across such a large geographic extent limited the number of datasets that could be included, excluded some important drivers of climate-change vulnerability, and prevented adequate evaluation of some geographies. The lack of adequately-scaled data for many key vulnerability factors, such as freshwater flooding risks and increased storm activity, highlights the need for both data development and more detailed vulnerability assessments at local to regional scales where data for these factors may be available. In addition, most of the available data at this scale were related to climate-change exposures, with relatively little data available for factors associated with climate-change sensitivity or adaptive capacity. In particular, we lacked consistent data on the distribution or abundance of cultural resources or accessible data on infrastructure across all parks. We identified resource types, geographies, and critical vulnerability factors that lacked data for NPS’ consideration in addressing data gaps. Forty-seven indicators met our criteria, and these were combined into 21 climate-change vulnerability factors. Twenty-seven indicators representing 12 vulnerability factors addressed climate-change exposure (i.e., projected changes in climate conditions and impacts). A smaller number of indictors measured sensitivity (12 indicators representing 5 vulnerability factors). The sensitivity indicators often measured park or landscape characteristics which may make resources more or less responsive to climate changes (e.g., current air quality) as opposed to directly representing the sensitivity of specific resources within the park (e.g., a particular rare species or type of historical structure). Finally, 6 indicators representing 4 vulnerability factors measured external adaptive capacity for living resources (i.e., characteristics of the park and/or surrounding landscape which may facilitate or impede species adaptation to climate changes). We identified indicators relevant to three resource groups: terrestrial living, aquatic living (including living cultural resources such as culturally significant landscapes, plant, or animal species) and non-living resources (including infrastructure and non-living cultural resources such as historic buildings or archeological sites). We created separate indicator lists for each of these resource groups and analyzed them separately. To identify priority geographies within CONUS,...

This rapid literature review explores how to maintain essential state functions and basic service delivery during escalating conflict situations. It draws on literature and ideas from various overlapping agendas including development and humanitarian nexus; development, humanitarian and peacebuilding nexus (the “triple nexus”); fragile states; state-building; conflict sensitivity; resilience; and conflict prevention and early warning. There has been an extensive exploration of these ideas over the past decades: as the international development agenda has increasingly focussed on the needs of fragile and conflict-affected contexts (FCAS); as violent conflicts have become more complex and protracted; as the global share of poverty has become increasingly concentrated in FCAS highlighting the need to combine humanitarian crisis strategies with longer-term development strategies; as threats emanating from FCAS increasingly affect countries beyond those states and regions e.g. through serious and organised crime (SOC) networks, migration, terrorism, etc; and as global trends like climate change and demographic shifts create new stresses, opportunities, and risks.

This report sheds light on challenges faced by Transgender persons in Indian prisons. The report analyses the international and legal frameworks in the country which provide the foundation for policy formulations with regard to confinement of LGBT+ persons, with particular reference to the Transgender community. This report also documents the responses received to right to information requests filed to prison headquarters across the country, which in addition to providing the number of Transgender prisoners in Indian prisons between 1st May 2018 to 30th April 2019, also provides relevant information on compliance within prisons with existing legal frameworks relevant to protecting the rights of Transgender persons in prisons, especially in terms of recognition of a third gender, allocation of wards, search procedures, efforts towards capacity building of prison administrators etc. The finalisation of this report has involved an intense consultative process with individuals and experts, including representatives from the community, community-based organisations as well as researcher and academicians working on this issue. This report aims to enhance the understanding of these issues among stakeholders such as prison administrators, judicial officers, lawyers, legal service providers as well as other non-state actors. It is aimed at better informed policy making, and ensuring that decisions made with respect to LGBTI+ persons in prisons recognize and are sensitive of their rights and special needs.

Making Sense is a European Commission H2020 funded project which aims at supporting participatory sensing initiatives that address environmental challenges in areas such as noise and air pollution. The development of Making Sense was informed by previous research on a crowdfunded open source platform for environmental sensing, SmartCitizen.me, developed at the Fab Lab Barcelona. Insights from this research identified several deterrents for a wider uptake of participatory sensing initiatives due to social and technical matters. For example, the participants struggled with the lack of social interactions, a lack of consensus and shared purpose amongst the group, and a limited understanding of the relevance the data had in their daily lives (Balestrini et al., 2014; Balestrini et al., 2015). As such, Making Sense seeks to explore if open source hardware, open source software and and open design can be used to enhance data literacy and maker practices in participatory sensing. Further to this, Making Sense tests methodologies aimed at empowering individuals and communities through developing a greater understanding of their environments and by supporting a culture of grassroot initiatives for action and change. To do this, Making Sense identified a need to underpin sensing with community building activities and develop strategies to inform and enable those participating in data collection with appropriate tools and skills. As Fetterman, Kaftarian and Wanderman (1996) state, citizens are empowered when they understand evaluation and connect it in a way that it has relevance to their lives. Therefore, this report examines the role that these activities have in participatory sensing. Specifically, we discuss the opportunities and challenges in using the concept of Community Level Indicators (CLIs), which are measurable and objective sources of information gathered to complement sensor data. We describe how CLIs are used to develop a more indepth understanding of the environmental problem at hand, and to record, monitor and evaluate the progress of change during initiatives. We propose that CLIs provide one way to move participatory sensing beyond a primarily technological practice and towards a social and environmental practice. This is achieved through an increased focus in the participants’ interests and concerns, and with an emphasis on collective problem solving and action. We position our claims against the following four challenge areas in participatory sensing: 1) generating and communicating information and understanding (c.f. Loreto, 2017), 2) analysing and finding relevance in data (c.f. Becker et al., 2013), 3) building community around participatory sensing (c.f. Fraser et al., 2005), and 4) achieving or monitoring change and impact (c.f. Cheadle et al., 2000). We discuss how the use of CLIs can tend to these challenges. Furthermore, we report and assess six ways in which CLIs can address these challenges and thereby support participatory sensing initiatives: i. Accountability ii. Community assessment iii. Short-term evaluation iv. Long-term evaluation v. Policy change vi. Capability The report then returns to the challenge areas and reflects on the learnings and recommendations that are gleaned from three Making Sense case studies. Afterwhich, there is an exposition of approaches and tools developed by Making Sense for the purposes of advancing participatory sensing in this way. Lastly, the authors speak to some of the policy outcomes that have been realised as a result of this research.

Increased production rates and cost reduction are affecting manufacturing in all sectors of the mobility industry. One enabling methodology that could achieve these goals in the burgeoning “Industry 4.0” environment is the deterministic assembly (DA) approach. The DA approach is defined as an optimized assembly process; it always forms the same final structure and has a strong link to design-for-assembly and design-for-automation methodologies. It also looks at the whole supply chain, enabling drastic savings at the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) level by reducing recurring costs and lead time. Within Industry 4.0, DA will be required mainly for the aerospace and the space industry, but serves as an interesting approach for other industries assembling large and/or complex components. In its entirety, the DA approach connects an entire supply chain—from part manufacturing at an elementary level to an OEM’s final assembly line level. Addressing the whole process of aircraft design and manufacturing is necessary to develop further collaboration models between OEMs and the supply chain, including addressing the most pressing technology challenges. Since all parts aggregate at the OEM level, the OEM—as an integrator of all these single parts—needs special end-to-end methodologies to drastically decrease cost and lead time. This holistic approach can be considered in part design as well (in the design-for-automation and design-for-assembly philosophy). This allows for quicker assembly at the OEM level, such as “part-to-part” or “hole-to-hole” approaches, versus traditional, classical assembly methods like manual measurement or measurement-assisted assembly. In addition, it can increase flexibility regarding rate changes in production (such as those due to pandemic- or climate-related environmental challenges). The standardization and harmonization of these areas would help all industries and designers to have a deterministic approach with an end-to-end concept. Simulations can easily compare possible production and assembly steps with different impacts on local and global tolerances. Global measurement feedback needs high-accuracy turnkey solutions, which are very costly and inflexible. The goal of standardization would be to use Industry 4.0 feedback and features, as well as to define several building blocks of the DA approach as a one-way assembly (also known as one-up assembly, or “OUA”), false one-way assembly, “Jig-as-Master,” etc., up to the hole-to-hole assembly approach. The evolution of these assembly principles and the link to simulation approaches are undefined and unsolved domains; they are discussed in this report. They must be discussed in greater depth with aims of (first) clarifying the scope of the industry-wide alignment needs and (second) prioritizing the issues requiring standardization. NOTE: SAE EDGE™ Research Reports are intended to identify and illuminate key issues in emerging, but still unsettled, technologies of interest to the mobility industry. The goal of SAE EDGE™ Research Reports is to stimulate discussion and work in the hope of promoting and speeding resolution of identified issues. SAE EDGE™ Research Reports are not intended to resolve the challenges they identify or close any topic to further scrutiny.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.