Dissertationen zum Thema „Crisis Complexity“

Due to the fact that emergency situations can lead to substantial losses, both financial and in terms of human lives, it is essential that texts used in a crisis situation be clearly understandable. This thesis is concerned with the study of the complexity of the crisis management sub-language and with methods to produce new, clear texts and to rewrite pre-existing crisis management documents which are too complex to be understood. By doing this, this interdisciplinary study makes several contributions to the crisis management field. First, it contributes to the knowledge of the complexity of the texts used in the domain, by analysing the presence of a set of written language complexity issues derived from the psycholinguistic literature in a novel corpus of crisis management documents. Second, since the text complexity analysis shows that crisis management documents indeed exhibit high numbers of text complexity issues, the thesis adapts to the English language controlled language writing guidelines which, when applied to the crisis management language, reduce its complexity and ambiguity, leading to clear text documents. Third, since low quality of communication can have fatal consequences in emergency situations, the proposed controlled language guidelines and a set of texts which were re-written according to them are evaluated from multiple points of view. In order to achieve that, the thesis both applies existing evaluation approaches and develops new methods which are more appropriate for the task. These are used in two evaluation experiments – evaluation on extrinsic tasks and evaluation of users’ acceptability. The evaluations on extrinsic tasks (evaluating the impact of the controlled language on text complexity, reading comprehension under stress, manual translation, and machine translation tasks) Text Complexity and Text Simplification in the Crisis Management domain 4 show a positive impact of the controlled language on simplified documents and thus ensure the quality of the resource. The evaluation of users’ acceptability contributes additional findings about manual simplification and helps to determine directions for future implementation. The thesis also gives insight into reading comprehension, machine translation, and cross-language adaptability, and provides original contributions to machine translation, controlled languages, and natural language generation evaluation techniques, which make it valuable for several scientific fields, including Linguistics, Psycholinguistics, and a number of different sub-fields of NLP.

Tourism destinations are particularly vulnerable to crises and disasters and while a number of tourism specific crisis management models exist to assist managers and to provide a reference point for academics, they unfortunately display a number of limitations which reduce their effectiveness. For example, drawing on organisational crisis management theory as a framework, they fail to account for differences in size and scope between a typical business organisation and a tourism destination. At the same time, the prescriptive, linear, one-size-fits-all structure of the models does not consider the unpredictable, unique nature of crises and disasters, the manner in which they evolve and the distinct characteristics of individual tourism destinations. Furthermore, they presume coordination will automatically occur when, in reality, competition and rivalry often act as a barrier to the implementation of measures to achieve such aims. Beyond these specific limitations, perhaps the most pertinent challenge to contemporary models is that they fail to recognise the chaotic nature of the system and its environment. Various commentators have suggested a chaos and complexity theory approach to tourism crisis management. In this way, the tourism system is viewed as a complex adaptive system, similar to an ecological community, which, despite its chaotic exterior, demonstrates an underlying current of orderliness and a particular aptitude for self-organisation. The ability of a system, under the correct conditions, to self-organise and evolve to an improved state of being has implications for the management of crises and disasters. Nevertheless, despite prompts from academia to investigate further, research has been extremely sparse and the potential of chaos and complexity theory as a method to manage tourism crises has remained relatively unknown. This thesis, therefore, seeks to address the gap in the literature. Its overall purpose is to identify whether the proposed limitations of existing frameworks are demonstrated in practice and to consider whether a complexity-based perspective on tourism crisis and disaster management represents a more viable framework for managers of tourism destinations preparing for and responding to crises. To address this purpose, two case studies were conducted in the context of two tourism crises, namely the 2001 UK Foot and mouth crisis and the 2009 Mexican H1N1 Influenza crisis. Following an interpretivist theoretical approach to the research, a series of semi-structured interviews were performed with relevant participants associated with each crisis and the information gathered was analysed along with media and government documentary evidence pertaining to each crisis. The research serves to substantiate the claim that the proposed limitations diminish the effectiveness of contemporary tourism crisis and disaster models, as the limitations are clearly evident in both case studies. Moreover, the case studies also offer the opportunity to observe manifestations of the elements of chaos and complexity, which enables the conclusion to be drawn that had the Foot and Mouth crisis and the H1N1 Influenza crisis been managed using complexity theory based management strategies, facilitated by the implementation of a ‘learning destination’ type structure, then the crisis response would have been improved.

The recent financial crisis has brought to the fore the need to better understand systemic risk, that is, the risk of collapse of a large part of the financial system and its potential effects on the real economy. In this thesis, we argue that a proper assessment of systemic risk must include an analysis of the network of interdependencies that exists between the different financial institutions. In fact, today's level of financial interconnectedness between and among markets has proven to have ambiguous effects. On the one hand, a highly connected system allows to diversify risk at the micro level. On the other hand, too much interdependencies provide various paths for contagion to take place and propagate at the macro level. In what follows, we analyze financial markets as networks of interactions and dependencies between financial agents. Through this lens, we investigate three major aspects: (i) how the structure of financial networks can amplify or mitigate the propagation of financial distress, (ii) what are the implications for macro-prudential regulation and (iii) which patterns of interactions characterize real financial networks.We start out by delivering a stability analysis of a network model of interbank contagion that accounts for panics and bank runs. We identify the effects of market architecture, banks' capital ratios, market liquidity and shocks. Our results show that no single network architecture is always superior to others. In particular, highly concentrated networks can both be the most robust and the most fragile depending on other market characteristics, mainly, liquidity.We then move on to tackle issues related to the building of regulatory frameworks that adequately account for the effects of financial interdependencies. We propose a new methodology to compute individual and systemic probabilities of default and show that certain network characteristics give rise to uncertainty. More precisely, we find that network cycles are responsible for the emergence of multiple equilibria even in the presence of complete knowledge. In turn, multiple equilibria give rise to uncertainty for the regulator in the determination of default probabilities. We also quantify the effects of network structures, leverage, volatility and correlations.Having introduced a way to overcome multiplicity, we deliver a method that quantifies the price of complexity in financial markets based on the above mentioned model. This method consists of determining the scope of possible levels of systemic risk that can be obtained when some parameters are subject to small deviations from their true value. The results show a price to the interconnected nature of credit markets even when the equilibrium is unique: small errors can lead to large mistakes in measuring the likelihood of systemic default. Extending the model to account for derivative contracts, we show that error effects increase dramatically as more types of contracts are present in the system. While there is an intuition for such phenomenon, our framework formalizes the idea and quantifies its determinants.In the last part of this thesis, we contribute to the quantitative analysis of real financial networks. We start with a temporal network analysis of one of the major national interbank markets, that is, the German interbank market. We report on the structural evolution of two of the most important over-the-counter markets for liquidity: the interbank market for credit and for derivatives. We find that the majority of interactions is concentrated onto a set of few market participants. There also exists an important correlation between the borrowing and lending activities for each bank in terms of numbers of counterparties. In contrast with other works, we find little impact of the 2008 crisis on the structure of the credit market. The derivative market however exhibits a peak of concentration in the run up to the crisis. Globally, both markets exhibit large levels of stability for most of the network metrics and high correlation amongst them.Finally, we analyze how banks interact with the real economy by investigating the network of loans from banks to industries in Japan. We find evidence of a particular structure of interactions resulting from the coexistence of specific strategies both on the lending side and the borrowing side: generalist agents and specialist agents. Generalist banks have a diversified portfolio (i.e. they provide liquidity to almost all industries) while specialist banks focus their activity on a narrow set of industries. Similarly, generalists industries obtain credit from all banks while specialist industries have a restricted number of creditors. Moreover, the arrangement of interactions is such that specialists tend to only interact with generalists from the other side. Our model allows to structurally characterize highly persistent, and economically meaningful, sets of generalists and specialists. We further provide an analysis of the factors that predict whether a given bank or industry is a generalist. We show that size is an important determinant, both for banks and industries, but we also highlight additional relevant factors. Finally, we find that generalist banks tend to be less vulnerable. Hence, how banks position themselves in the network has important implications for their risk profile. Overall the results presented in this thesis highlight the complex role played by financial interlinkages. Therefore, they demonstrate the need to embed the network dimension in the regulatory framework to properly assess the stability profile of financial systems. Such findings are relevant for both theoretical modeling and empirical investigations. We believe that they also shed light on crucial aspects of systemic risk relevant for policy making and regulation of today's complex financial systems.
Doctorat en Sciences de l'ingénieur et technologie
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

As the risk society has evolved, crisis management has become significant in order to survive a crisis. Crisis consultants have an important role in the risk society and organizations expects a whole lot from the profession. There is a gap in the research about the perceptions of crisis consultant’s role and expectancies in the risk society. Additionally, there is no research connected to the impact of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic on the profession of crisis consulting. The study aims to explore the crisis consultants view of and their role in the risk society. It also seeks to investigate how the crisis consultants have adapted to the Covid-19 pandemic. The study has been conducted through a qualitative case study consisting of various crisis consultants from diverse consultancies. The primary data consisted of eight semi-structured in- depth interviews. Crises in the risk society has become more complex due to the developing technology which has had an effect on the dispersion of information and personal exposures. Crisis consultants are expected to act as change agents who provides an outside perspective and pushes the client forward during crises. The Covid-19 pandemic has had no effect on the types of crisis and neither on the processes used by the crisis consultants. The shift lies within tools and certain procedures where social distancing and digitalization has become the new standard. Although the alterations have been challenging in some situations, the crisis consultants have still managed to fulfill their tasks and increase their workload.

Supply chains are developed to reduce business expenses and increase efficiency. However, a disruption in the supply chain, or a failure in one of the links, can expose organizations to crises that can severely impact short-term bottom line and long-term corporate reputation. This study examines the communication challenges inherent in supply chain crises using Samsung’s 2016 Galaxy Note 7 phone crisis as a case study. Results of this study show, in a supply chain crisis, stakeholders hold the organization responsible, regardless of where in the supply chain the break occurred. This study also examines the impact of complexity inherent to supply chain crises and the challenges organizations face during a crisis when organizational reputation is impacted by links in the supply chain outside the organization’s direct control.

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to increase the knowledge of the complexity of a crisis team consisting of multiple government. Furthermore, the consequences of the complexity on the sensemaking and sensegiving processes, regarding the crisis team in a natural disaster. Method: To be able to answer the questions regarding this study, the empirical data has been collected through six (6) interviews. The researchers for this study have applied a case study on the floodings of Mälaren December 2019. Therefore, the interviews have been done with the persons within this crisis team. Empiricism and Analysis: The theoretical framework that has been applied for the analysis of this study consists of three main topics, complexity, sensemaking and sensegiving. Conclusions: The final conclusions of this study identify that there are multiple factors of complexity that affect the sensemaking and sensegiving process. These complexity factors are: routines, preexperiences, excellence in specific field, terminology, missions, mandate and hierarchy. These complexity factors create frictions and possibilities for the crisis team in regard of the consequences of the complexity factors on the sensemaking and sensegiving processes.
Syfte: Syftet med studien är att skapa en ökad förståelse för komplexitetens påverkan på den meningsskapande och meningsgivande processen. Samt hur detta påverkar en krisgrupp bestående av flertalet myndigheter i en hantering av en naturkatastrof. Metod: För att besvara studiens frågeställningar har det empiriska materialet samlats in genom en kvalitativ metod, i form av sex semistrukturerade intervjuer. Då forskarna för denna studie har tillämpat en fallstudie grundar sig studien på översvämningskriserna i december 2019. Därmed genomfördes intervjuerna på respondenter som representerade olika myndigheter som samverkat i detta fall. Empiri och analys: Det underlag som använts till studiens analys är den teoretiska referensramen som omfattar litteratur om komplexitet, meningsskapande och meningsgivande. Slutsatser: De slutsatser som identifierades var att komplexa faktorer hade en påverkan på meningsskapande och meningsgivande processerna. Dessa huvudsakliga faktorer identifierades som: rutiner, tidigare erfarenheter, spetskompetenser, terminologier, uppdrag, mandat och hierarki. Dessa komplexa faktorer gör att meningsskapande och meningsgivande processerna skapar friktioner och möjligheter för krisgruppen.

O presente trabalho busca analisar a possibilidade de aplicação da mediação aos conflitos ecológicos com a finalidade de promover a proteção do meio ambiente de forma eficaz e inclusiva no Brasil. Como base deste estudo está o exame da crise ecológica e da mudança de postura do ser humano em relação às questões ambientais. A partir da compreensão desse processo histórico e social, procura-se verificar a evolução da proteção legal ao meio ambiente no direito brasileiro e a afirmação da intenção da sociedade de proteger o meio ambiente como parte do direito fundamental à qualidade de vida. Propõe-se uma análise que também envolve questões de ecologia política no sentido de examinar a ação política da indagação sobre as mudanças mais recentes da condição do ser humano em relação à natureza. Neste aspecto, constrói-se uma análise legislativa sobre os instrumentos de proteção ambiental no direito brasileiro, incluindose o questionamento sobre os instrumentos extrajudiciais de proteção ambiental. A estrutura apresentada se mostra como fundamento ao exame da mediação como alternativa ao enfrentamento dos conflitos ambientais no Brasil. Esta análise desenvolve-se a partir do método dedutivo, uma vez que, por meio da revisão de literatura, partiu-se de noções gerais sobre a concepção do ser humano frente à natureza e da forma com que as diferentes concepções alteraram o tratamento jurídico da proteção à natureza. A pesquisa, portanto, mostra-se adequada à linha de pesquisa à qual está vinculado, pois busca uma análise dos fundamentos teórico-filosóficos da mediação aplicada à questão ambiental no direito brasileiro.
This study aims to analyze the application possibility concerning the mediation procedure for ecological conflicts in order to promote the environment protection in Brazil. The study approaches the examination of the ecological crisis and the human changing posture in front of environmental matters. It parts from the historical review concerning the environmental protection legal affirmation process. The aim is to examine the development of environment legal protection in brazilian law, as well as to examine the social intention concerning the environment protection - as a fundamental right for quality of life. The analysis involves political ecology theories in order to analyze the political action on the current changes in the human condition in relation to nature. In this context, it built an analyses concerning the legal instruments for the environmental protection in Brazil. However the focus was also the extra-legal instruments: mediation. The research structure presents the mediation process as an alternative way for solving some environmental matters. The methodology applied is deductive method, begging from a literature review concerning legal regulation for environment in Brazil as well as legal regulations concerning mediation process. The research, therefore, is in harmony to the research lines of this Program.

O clássico Equilíbrio Econômico nunca foi realidade, especialmente após as primeiras crises dos mercados financeiros. Hoje se sabe que as economias estão longe da situação de equilíbrio, sendo vistas mais como um processo em construção do que um estado estático propriamente dito. Se assemelham a um sistema estocástico, e não determinístico como um dia se pensou. O Brasil é um país jovem, e seus sistemas econômico e político ainda estão em formação. Tendo em vista todas as mudanças e crises que o país tem sofrido em sua história recente, este estudo busca uma forma alternativa para que tais eventos possam ser detectados e, principalmente, de certa forma antecipados, para que as providências cabíveis possam ser tomadas a tempo de se evitar grandes perdas financeiras. Para tal, as medidas de Complexidade de SDL e LMC são aplicadas às séries do câmbio dolar-real, Ibovespa e CDS Brasil e avaliadas durante eventos de crises. Detectados os principais eventos de cada série, \"volta-se no tempo\", ao início da crise, e avalia-se, dada a informação disponível naquele momento, a possibilidade de se detectar a crise em seus primeiros estágios. Ao fim, conclui-se que as Medidas de Complexidade LMC e SDL são robustas na detecção de aumentos de volatilidade nos dados de séries financeiras. Assim sendo, apresentam grande potencial como indicadores precoces de crises financeiras. Para tal, não são necessários cálculos extensivos, nem grandes históricos de dados; e também não são necessárias hipóteses sobre a distribuição de probabilidades destes dados. Acredita-se que este seja o primeiro passo em direção à construção de um monitor de crises em tempo real.
The classical Economic Equilibrium has never been a reality, especially after the first financial markets crisis events. It is known nowadays that economies are far from their Equilibrium, they are seen more as a process under construction, not a static state; a stochastic instead of deterministic process, as it was thought before. Brazil is a young country, hence its economic and political systems are still maturing. In light of all the changes and crises it has been suffering in the recent history, this research seeks for an alternative mechanism to detect and anticipate these crisis events, in order to avoid massive financial losses. To this end, the LMC and SDL Complexity Measures are applied to the Dollar-Real exchange rates, Ibovespa and Brazilian CDS time series during crisis events. After detecting the main events, the idea is to \"turn back in time\", to the events\' inception, and analyse if, given the limited amount of information on that time, the crises could be detected on their early stages. Finally, this research concludes that both LMC and SDL Complexity Measures are robust in detecting volatility increases on the financial series, revealing good potential as crises early warning. However, no extensive calculus, large samples, or strong assumptions about the data probability distributions are needed to this aim. Therefore, these results represent the very first step towards a crises real time monitor.

Entre avril et juin 2008, le prix des commodités (blé, maïs, riz) a atteint un niveau impressionnant, mais pas exceptionnel. Les populations de 48 pays ont été affectées par une sévère sous-alimentation. La plupart d’entre eux avait déjà été affaiblie par des conflits et des catastrophes naturelles inhabituelles et dramatiques. Ces facteurs ont souvent interagi pour aggraver la situation. Pourtant, si la crise de 2007-2008 a été un «problème extraordinaire», c’est aussi parce que la connaissance scientifique «normale» a échoué face à la complexité de la «poly-crises» alimentaire (Morin, 2011). En réponse, nous avons conçu un cadre épistémologique, méthodologique, et technique, à partir de deux approches face à la complexité, celles de Hayek (1899-1992) et de Simon (1916-2001), avec un objectif, satisfaire au critère de cumulativité, un reproche traditionnellement adressé à ce type d’approche. Ce travail a produit deux enseignements. Premièrement, les fondements épistémologiques de la production de la connaissance en économie doivent être révisés en environnement complexe et incertain: 1) du certain/de l’objectif vers l’incertain/le subjectif; 2) de la prédiction exacte vers la conception; 3) de la causalité linéaire inappropriée, ou pire, menaçant la liberté individuelle, vers une causalité complexe. Deuxièmement, dans le processus d’adaptation, le rôle de la production et du partage de la connaissance «tacite» est central. Pour cette raison, le problème économique n’est plus un problème d’allocation des ressources. Il est de savoir comment des êtres humains aux capacités cognitives «limitées» computent et socialisent (Nonaka et alii, 1994, 2001) la connaissance et l’information disponibles, mais dispersées, pour la convertir en heuristiques ou patterns favorisant l’adaptation. Deux autres hypothèses les renforcent : 1) les dynamiques du changement s’enracinent «dans la pensée et la créativité des gens impliqués dans des situations complexes et dans leur capacité à restructurer leurs propres modèles d’interactions», (Ostrom, 2011) ; 2) l’altruisme réciproque (Simon, 1992, 1993) est un comportement rationnel qui peut être plus efficient dans les interactions sociales en environnement complexe que le comportement maximisateur ou égoïste. Ces résultats ont été synthétisés dans une interface que nous avons créée et qui a pris la forme d’une boucle de la connaissance à deux allèles, une pour la connaissance générique, l’autre, pour la tacite, qui, par récursion, produisent une méta-connaissance. Cette interface est à la fois ouverte et fermée et reflète ainsi la position défendue par Hayek et Simon pour qui la science économique est une «science frontière». Une part de la recherche est consacrée à la création d’outils, par exemple à un indicateur de perception de la contribution des facteurs au déclenchement et/ou à l’aggravation de la crise, à partir : 1) des allocutions des 138 Chefs d’État et de Gouvernement présents à la Conférence de Haut Niveau sur la Sécurité alimentaire mondiale (3-5 juin 2008) ; 2) des analyses des économistes, 3) des témoignages des gens qui ont subi la sous-nutrition ou la hausse des prix des denrées alimentaires (database IRIN). Nous proposons également une typologie actualisée des policy-mix mis en œuvre par 18 pays divisés en 3 groupes : des pays en développement, pour la plupart importateurs nets, sévèrement touchés par la crise et qui ont connu des «émeutes de la faim» (Égypte, Tunisie, Cameroun, Côte d’Ivoire, Sénégal, Mauritanie, Haïti, Bangladesh) ; des pays Membres du groupe de Cairns ayant connu soit des «émeutes de la faim», soit des désordres sociaux (Indonésie, Philippines, Thaïlande, Afrique du Sud) ; enfin, des pays ayant adopté des restrictions et/ou prohibitions aux exportations (Chine, Inde, Indonésie, Égypte, Cambodge, Ukraine, Vietnam) [...]
Over the April-June 2008 period, prices of the commodities such as wheat, maize, rice and vegetable oils, reached impressive yet not exceptional peaks. By contrast, the populations of 48 countries were stricken by severe under nutrition. Most of them had already been weakened not only by conflicts, social disorders, dramatic and unusual climatic and natural disasters, but also by outbreaks, epizooties, and population displacements. In some cases, all these factors together played a significant role in the worsening situation. However, another important reason could be advanced to explain why the 2008 food crisis was an “extraordinary problem”. This one is that “normal” scientific knowledge was defeated by the complexity of what it appears now as a food “poly-crises” (Morin, 2011). We answered by designing an epistemological, methodological, and technical knowledge base from two very different and alternative economics approaches of facing complexity. The first is the Hayekian approach (1899-1992), and the second, the Simonian approach (1916-2001). The research intends to fulfill cumulativity criteria, traditionally difficult to satisfy with the ones of complexity. From the following analysis we mostly learned two things. First, epistemological grounds of economics needed to be broken in complex environment(s): 1) from certainty/objectivity to uncertainty/subjectivity, 2) from accurate prediction to design, 3) from linear causality deemed inappropriate or, worse, threatening people freedoms, to complex causality. Second, in the adaptation process, the role of “tacit” knowledge production and sharing is central. For that reason, the core of economics problem is not allocation of resources anymore. Now, the main problem for humans whose cognitive capacity are “bounded” is to compute, to “socialize” (Nonaka et alii, 1994, 2001), available but dispersed information and knowledge and to converse them into heuristics or patterns allowing the adaptation to complex and uncertain environment(s). Two others auxiliary hypotheses –E. Ostrom (2011) will endorse them later- can be drawn from that preliminary work: 1) the dynamics of change rooted “in the thinking and in the creativity of people involved in complex situations and their capacity to restructure their own models for interactions”, 2) reciprocal altruism (Simon, 1992, 1993) is a rational behavior which can be more effective in/for the social interactions in complex environment(s) than maximizing or selfish behavior. To present preliminary results in an effective way, we created a very simple interface scheme. It takes the form of a three-dimensional knowledge loop with two strands, “generic” and “tacit” knowledge connected between themselves to produce by recursion a meta-knowledge. We made the choice of the interface because it reflects with the most accuracy the position defended by Hayek and Simon which is that economics is a frontier science. Moreover, the interface has the advantage of being both open and closed. A part of the research is more specifically dedicated to design tools increasing the understanding of the “polyfood” crises. We elaborated a three-level indicator with: 1) perceptions of the contribution of each factor to the outbreak and the worsening of the situation; 2) contributions of actors to the explanation of the food crisis proposed in 2008. It was developed from: 1) a case study comparing and contrasting explanations proposed a) in their statements by 138 Heads of State and Government attended the High Level Conference on World Food Security (3-5 June 2008), b) in their analyses by economists, c) in their testimonies by people hit by under nutrition/rising food prices (database IRIN); 2) a new and more updated typology focused on the responses addressed by 18 countries split into 3 groups [...]

Diante das demandas contemporâneas e em busca de sobrevivência frente à mercantilização da educação, instituições educacionais confessionais, como é o caso das instituições vinculadas à Igreja Metodista, procuram se articular em redes. Este trabalho visa enfatizar alguns pontos específicos do pensamento de John Wesley e de Edgar Morin, que possam contribuir para que essas redes não estejam vinculadas apenas aos aspectos administrativo-financeiros, mas que tenham, concomitantemente, elementos de reflexão que encerrem uma carga de sentido, encontrado na confluência da tradição ou seja, na visão teológica do iniciador do movimento metodista, com o contemporâneo, ou seja, com os desafios colocados à educação nos dias atuais, a partir do paradigma da complexidade de Edgar Morin. Essas contribuições são consideradas como fios para a tecitura da rede, tendo em vista que complexus tem como uma de suas conotações um tecido de constituintes heterogêneos inseparavelmente associados. Rede também pode ter outras conotações, como rede de segurança e para o pescador é um instrumento que garante a sobrevivência. Os elementos escolhidos como fios para tecer a rede são a antropologia, a soteriologia, no sentido de salvação social, e a criação e nova criação em John Wesley. E, ainda, aspectos da antropologia, solidariedade e crise de destino da humanidade, e educação em Edgar Morin. A tecitura é apresentada a partir do cotejamento desses conceitos/fios. Exemplificando e apontando sinais de esperança, apresento algumas práticas e experiências já em vigor na Universidade Metodista de São Paulo, onde encontro aproximações e possíveis relações com o material apresentado como os fios e o tecido da rede. Concluo o trabalho retomando e aprofundando os pontos de confluência entre alguns aspectos dos pensamentos dos dois autores, como suporte para a defesa do que considero a educação necessária para o atual momento histórico, portanto aquela que proponho que deva ser desenvolvida pela Rede Metodista de Educação.
In face of contemporary demands and struggling to survive against the commodification of education, confessional educational institutions, as is the case of the institutions related to the Methodist Church, seek to articulate into networks. This paper aims to highlight some specific points of John Wesleys and Edgar Morins thought, which may allow that such networks be linked not only to the administrative and financial aspects, but have at the same time, elements of reflection carrying a load of meaning, to be found at the confluence of 'tradition', that is, the theological vision of the father of the Methodist movement, with the contemporary vision, that is, the challenges posed to education today, from Edgar Morins paradigm of complexity viewpoint. These contributions are considered as threads weaving the fabric of the network, given that the complexus has as one of its connotations a tissue of heterogeneous constituents, inseparably bound. A net may also have other connotations, such as the "safety net", while for the fisherman, it is an instrument that ensures survival. The elements chosen as threads to weave this network are anthropology, soteriology, in the sense of social salvation, and the creation and 'new creation' in John Wesley. And still, aspects of anthropology, solidarity and the humanitys fate crisis, and education in Edgar Morin. The texture is shown based on a careful examination and comparison of these concepts/threads. Exemplifying and pointing to signs of hope, I describe some experiences and practices being used at the Methodist University of São Paulo, where we find similarities and possible connections with the material presented as the threads and the fabric of the network. I conclude this recovering and examining carefully points of the confluence between some aspects on the thoughts of the two authors as support of defense of what I consider the necessary education for the current historical moment, therefore, the one which I propose that should be developed by Methodist Educational Network.

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The growth of the world economy, driven by emerging countries, especially China, has generated signi cant changes in the commodities market since 2002. The commodity prices have shown a signi cant increase, reecting the erce conditions of supply and demand for these products, driven by the climatic phenomena that have negatively afected the supply, and by the demand growth rate. The global nancial crisis began in the US market, and eventually turned out the worst global nancial crisis since 1929 (the break of the New York Stock Exchange). The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 15, 2008 marks the transformation of the international nancial crisis, after which in Brazil there was a great reduction of international credit, accompanied by a sharp increase of the dollar exchange rate. Considering that the agricultural sector is of fundamental importance to the economic health, being a major investor in environmental and rural technologies, Brazil can not succumb to the idea of a slowdown in this sector, as in 2008 the Brazilian agribusiness represented 36.7% of exports, generating 37% of jobs, and 28% of gross domestic product (GDP). This work investigates the returns asynchrony and the behavior of the cross-correlations for six agricultural Brazilian agribusiness commodities, for the period prior to the global nancial crisis (2006-2009), and after the crisis (2010-2014). The Cross-Sample Entropy method was used for quantifying the asynchrony among the commodity returns series. In addition, the methods Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (MF-DCCA), Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) and Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA) were used to investigate cross-correlations and auto correlations in the returns series. The results of multifractal analysis show that for all time series, the multifractality decreased after the global nancial crisis, indicating smaller range of the scale invariant fluctuations, except for Cotton, which exhibits precisely the opposite behavior. Based on the obtained results, it can be concluded that the multifractal analysis and the complexity analysis can be useful in the studies of the dynamics of the Brazilian agribusiness, given its importance within the global economic scenario, for adoption of monetary and scal policies by the responsible economic agents, or by the federal government.
O crescimento da economia mundial, impulsionado por países emergentes, principalmente a China, gerou mudanças relevantes no mercado de commodities a partir de 2002. Observou-se uma mudança nos preços das commodities, que mostraram uma elevação expressiva, mostrando condições acirradas entre oferta e demanda desses produtos, impulsionadas pela existência de problemas climáticos que afetaram negativamente a oferta e pelo ritmo de crescimento da demanda. A crise financeira mundial iniciou-se no mercado americano e acabou se tornando a pior crise financeira mundial desde 1929 (quebra da bolsa de Nova York). A falência do banco de investimento Lehman Brothers no dia 15 de setembro de 2008 marca a transformação da crise financeira internacional, e após isso, ocorre uma grande redução do crédito internacional e o dólar dispara no Brasil. Considerando que o setor agrícola é de fundamental importância para a sanidade econômica e por ser um grande investidor em tecnologias ambiental e rural, o Brasil não pode sucumbir a idéia uma desaceleração neste setor, pois o agronegócio brasileiro representou, em 2008, 36.7% das exportações brasileiras, geração de 37% dos empregos e 28% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB). Neste trabalho investigou-se a assincronia, a transferência de informação e o comportamento das correlações cruzadas dos retornos de seis commodities agrícolas do agronegócio brasileiro, para os períodos anteriores (2006-2009) e posteriores a crise financeira mundial (2010-2014). Utilizou-se o método Cross-Sample Entropy para quantificar a assincronia entre todas as séries de retornos das commodities. Utilizou-se os métodos Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (MF-DCCA), Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) e Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA) para investigar correlações cruzadas e auto correlações. Os resultados da análise multifractal mostram que para todas as séries temporais, a multifractalidade diminuiu após a crise financeira mundial, indicando menor variedade do tamanho das flutuações que apresentam invariância de escala, exceto o algodão, que apresentou comportamento contrário. Com base nos resultados obtidos, pode-se concluir que a análise multifractal e a análise de complexidade podem ser úteis nos estudos da dinâmica do agronegócio brasileiro, dada a sua importância, diante do cenário econômico mundial seja para adoção de políticas monetárias e fiscal dos órgãos responsáveis, agentes econômicos ou pelo governo federal.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES
This study aims to present a view of Complex Thought about the themes of crisis and fragmentation of psychology as a science and profession. Therefore, we carried out a literature review of the important concepts of Complex Thought in regards to the relationship with the subject, specifically related to epistemology, ontology, method and methodology. After presented the theoretical framework and method that support this work, it elaborates on the results achieved through reflections raised by the collected bibliography. Thus, it carried out an interpretative analysis of the senses historically attributed to the concepts of "crisis" and "fragmentation", by building units of senses/analysis in order to propose a new reading possible for the subject, understanding the crisis and fragmentation not as diversity of theoretical positions or the difficulty of finding an unique position/object/language, but as the inability to recognize itself while a polysystemic and plural science.
O presente trabalho tem como objetivo apresentar uma visão do Pensamento Complexo sobre os temas da crise e fragmentação da psicologia enquanto ciência e profissão. Para tanto, realizou-se uma revisão bibliográfica dos conceitos importantes do Pensamento Complexo no que diz respeito à articulação com o tema, especificamente com relação à epistemologia, ontologia, método e metodologia. Depois de apresentado o referencial teórico e o método que embasam este trabalho, discorre-se sobre os resultados alcançados através de reflexões levantadas por meio do material bibliográfico coletado. Desta forma, realiza-se uma análise interpretativa dos sentidos historicamente atribuídos aos conceitos de “crise” e “fragmentação”, através da construção de unidades de sentido/análise, de modo a propor uma nova leitura possível para o tema, entendendo a crise e a fragmentação não mais como diversidade de posições teóricas ou a dificuldade de encontrar uma posição/objeto/linguagem unívoca, mas como a incapacidade de se reconhecer enquanto uma ciência polissistêmica e plural.

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate if increasing complexity for a problem makes a difference for a learning system with dual parts. The dual parts of the learning system are modelled after the Actor and Critic parts from the Actor-Critic algorithm, using the reinforcement learning framework. The results conclude that not any difference can be found in the relative performance in the Actor and Critic parts when increasing the complexity of a problem. These results could depend on technical difficulties in comparing the environments and the algorithms. The difference in complexity would then be non-uniform in an unknowable way and uncertain to use as comparison. If on the other hand the change of complexity is uniform, this could point to the fact that there is an actual difference in how each of the actor and critic handles different types of complexity. Further studies with a controlled increase in complexity are needed to establish which of the scenarios is most likely to be true. In the discussion an idea is presented of using the Actor-Critic framework as a model to understand the success rate of psychological treatments better.
Syftet med den här uppsatsen är att undersöka om en ökande komplexitet på ett problem, innebär en skillnad för ett lärande system med två samverkande. De två samverkande delarna som används är från “Actor” och “Critic”, som kommer ifrån algoritmen “Actor-Critic”. som implementeras med hjälp av ramverket “Reinforcement learning”. Resultaten bekräftar att det inte verkar vara någon skillnad i relativ effektivitet mellan “Actor” och “Critic” när komplexiteten ändras mellan två problem. Detta kan bero på tekniska svårigheter att jämföra miljöerna i experimentet och algoritmerna som används. Om det finns problem med jämförelserna skulle skillnaden i komplexitet vara icke-uniform på ett obestämbart sätt, och att kunna göra jämförelser blir därför svårt. Däremot om skillnaden i komplexitet är uniform, skulle det kunna tyda på det kanske finns en skillnad i hur “Actor” och “Critic” hanterar olika typer av komplexitet. Vidare studier med kontrollerade ökningar för komplexiteten är nödvändiga för att fastställa hur “Actor-Crtic” algoritmen samverkar med skillnader i komplexitet. I diskussionen presenteras iden att använda Actor-Critic modellen för att förstå metoder för psykologiska behandlingar bättre.

Introdução. Desde a promulgação da Constituição Federal de 1988 no Brasil, que consolida a saúde como um direito social, a ser garantido de forma integral e universal pelo Estado brasileiro, os cidadãos passaram a reivindicar este direito em juízo, acionando legitimamente o Estado para a garantia de suas pretensões sanitárias. E, neste sentido, o número de ações que demandam medicamentos vem crescendo de forma exponencial no Brasil, impactando diretamente a política pública de saúde, e suscitando debates sobre a segurança sanitária dos medicamentos dispensados em juízo. Objetivo. Evidenciar de que forma as questões técnicas e políticas que envolvem o direito social à assistência farmacêutica vem sendo debatidas dentro de processos judiciais que tem por objeto a solicitação de medicamentos em face do Estado. Isto para que se possa relacionar estes resultados aos atuais debates sobre o papel do Poder Judiciário em face da garantia do direito à saúde, e seu impacto perante a política pública de saúde. E, também, aos atuais debates político-sanitários sobre a prescrição médica, e sua importância para o exercício do direito em foco. Método. A metodologia de pesquisa revestiu-se em duas etapas distintas. A primeira etapa consistiu na análise de processos judiciais que versavam sobre a demanda de medicamentos em face do Estado, provenientes de quatro Tribunais Estaduais do país, em primeira instância: São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul e Rio de Janeiro. Os processos foram analisados através do uso da Metodologia Qualiquantitativa do Discurso Coletivo. A segunda etapa consistiu na pesquisa de artigos científicos, nas principais bases de dados de periódicos científicos de saúde pública, que tivessem relação com a pergunta de pesquisa: Como hoje estrutura-se a discussão político-sanitária em torno da prescrição médica? Resultados. Pela análise dos processos judiciais, evidencia-se que as demandas que envolvem pedidos de medicamento em juízo vêm sendo deferidas pelos juízes, prioritariamente, com base nas prescrições médicas individuais e com base na leitura pura do ordenamento jurídico, sem considerar as dimensões técnicas e políticas que envolvem o direito à assistência farmacêutica. A análise dos artigos científicos nos demonstra a vasta discussão técnica acerca da prescrição médica e suas implicações sanitárias, e aponta a necessidade de contraditar esses documentos e investir em educação e informação médicas, em prol da segurança sanitária dos pacientes-cidadãos. Conclusão. O direito à saúde é um direito complexo, que requer, para a sua adequada proteção e garantia, que ultrapassemos o paradigma positivista, com sua leitura exclusivamente normativa e dogmática, em prol de um novo paradigma que permita maior penetração de questões e saberes técnicos e políticos no âmbito do direito. Tanto judicial quanto extrajudicialmente precisam ser criados caminhos de proteção à saúde, que abriguem todos os profissionais jurídicos, políticos e técnicos envolvidos na temática, rumo à construção interdisciplinar do direito à saúde e da cidadania sanitária no Brasil
Introduction. Since the enactment of the 1988 Federal Constitution in Brazil, that consolidates health as a social right, the citizens began to demand this right in court, lawfully driving the state to guarantee their health claims. And, in this sense, the number of actions that require medicines is growing exponentially in Brazil, which impact directly the public health policy, and stimulate discussions about the safety of drugs dispensed by the courts. Objective. Show how the technical and political issues, involving the social right to pharmaceutical assistance has been debated in legal proceedings whose objective is the solicitation of drugs against the State. This to be able to relate these findings to the current debates about the role of the judiciary, in view of the guaranteed of right to health and its impact on the public health policy. And, also, to the current political debates about health prescription, and its importance for the right in focus. Method. The research methodology is coated in two stages. The first step was the analysis of court cases that focused the drug demand against the State, from Four State Courts in Brazil: Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul and Rio de Janeiro. The processes were analyzed through the use of qualitativequantitative methodology of collective discourse. The second step consisted in the search of scientific articles in major databases of scientific journals of public health, that were related to the following research question: How today\'s discussion is structured around the political health context of the medical prescription? Results. The analysis of court proceedings, results clear that the demands that involve medication in court have been deferred by the judges, primarily, based on the individual medical prescriptions, and based on the pure reading of the legal system, without considering the technical and political dimensions that involve the right to pharmaceutical assistance. The analysis of scientific articles shows us the extensive technical discussion about the prescription and its health implications, and highlights the need to contradict these documents, and invest in education and medical information, towards the safety of patients-citizens. Conclusion. The right to health is a complex right, which requires for its adequate protection and security, that we move beyond the positivist paradigm, with its exclusively normative reading and dogmatic rules, towards a new paradigm which allows greater penetration of issues and political and technical knowledge within the law. Both judicial and extrajudicial ways need to be created to protect health, involving all legal, politicians and technicians professionals involved in the matter, toward interdisciplinary construction of the right to health and health citizenship in Brazil

O objetivo deste estudo foi o de investigar as oportunidades de aplicação da análise de complexidade como método de análise da Economia Mineral de um bem mineral, utilizando o níquel como estudo de caso. Para tanto foram estudadas as particularidades do mercado de commodities, com maior profundidade no caso do níquel, os fatores que nele influem e alguns modelos desenvolvidos para simulação, compreensão e predição do comportamento do sistema composto por este mercado. Foram verificadas as condições para que o mercado de bens minerais tenha sido considerado um sistema complexo. No caso do níquel foi também analisado o estado atual da tecnologia de extração, incluindo os desenvolvimentos mais recentes. Passou-se então à descrição do método utilizado na análise de complexidade que define a complexidade de um sistema como uma grandeza quantificável em função de sua topologia, representada pela estrutura das correlações entre suas variáveis, e da entropia total do sistema. A entropia total do sistema é a integração das entropias de Shannon das variáveis que participam de sua estrutura e é uma medida da sua incerteza. Neste método, o cálculo das correlações entre as variáveis não é feito estatisticamente, mas sim por meio do cálculo da entropia mútua. A vantagem deste método é que revela correlações entre pares de variáveis que apresentam relações não lineares ou até mesmo bifurcações, clustering e outras patologias de difícil tratamento estatístico. Desta forma, evita-se o termo correlação, que remete ao tratamento estatístico, preferindo-se acoplamento em seu lugar, para identificar a dependência entre duas variáveis. A seguir, foram abordadas as duas modalidades de análise de complexidade utilizadas: estática e dinâmica. A análise estática revela, por meio de um mapa cognitivo, a estrutura do sistema e as forças de acoplamento entre seus componentes, bem como os índices de complexidade, compostos das complexidades crítica, operacional e mínima, da entropia e da robustez. O índice de maior destaque é o da robustez, que mede a resiliência do sistema por meio da diferença entre as complexidades crítica e operacional, e é um indicador de sua sustentabilidade. A análise dinâmica revela, para sistemas que variam com o tempo, a evolução dos indicadores de complexidade ao longo do tempo. O interesse nesse tipo de análise é que o criador do método identificou experimentalmente que o colapso de um sistema é quase sempre precedido de um aumento brusco em sua complexidade. Esta característica é então explorada na análise do mercado do níquel para procurar antecipar crises. Na parte experimental pode-se então revelar a estrutura de acoplamentos de uma cesta de metais e do mercado específico do níquel, usando-se a análise estática. A seguir, passou-se a investigar a evolução dos indicadores de complexidade ao longo do tempo, tendo sido possível identificar as situações de crise no mercado pelo aumento de complexidade e entropia e, no caso específico da crise de 2008-2009 foi possível perceber o aumento significativo da complexidade e entropia antes mesmo da instalação da crise, fornecendo assim um aviso prévio do evento.
This study aimed at investigating the opportunities for application of complexity analysis as a method of analysis of mineral commodities economics, using nickel as case study. With that intention, the particularities of commodities were studied, in a deeper fashion in the case of nickel, its influencing factors and respective models which have been developed for simulating, understanding and predicting the behavior of the commodity market system. The conditions which allow the mineral commodities market to be considered a complex system have been verified. In the case of nickel the current state of the extraction technology including the latest developments has also been analyzed. Then focus goes to the description of the method used in complexity analysis, where complexity of a system is defined as a measurable quantity based on its topology, represented by the structure of the correlation between its variables, and the total entropy of the system. The total entropy of the system is the integration of the Shannon entropy of the variables that participate in its structure and is a measure of the systems uncertainty, i.e., its departure from a deterministic operating fashion. Calculation of correlations between variables in this method is not done statistically, but by calculating the mutual entropy between each pair of variables. The advantage of this method is that it reveals correlations between pairs of variables that exhibit nonlinear relationships or even bifurcations, clustering and other pathologies of difficult statistical treatment. Thus, the term correlation is avoided, which refers to the statistical treatment, being coupling the preferred expression to identify the dependence between two variables. The two types of complexity analysis were then performed: static and dynamic. Static analysis reveals the system structure and strength of couplings between the components by means of a cognitive map, as well as the complexity indices consisting of critical complexity, operational and minimum entropy and robustness. Robustness is the most interesting index in this case, as it measures the resilience of the system using the difference between the critical and operative complexities, and is an indicator of its sustainability. The dynamic analysis reveals, for time variant systems, the evolution of complexity indicators over time. Interest in this type of analysis is that the methods developer has experimentally identified that the collapse of a system is almost always preceded by a sharp increase in their complexity. This feature is then exploited in the analysis of the nickel market in trying to anticipate crises. Then, in the experimental section, structures of couplings were identified for a basket of metals and for the specific nickel market, using static analysis. Finally the evolution of indicators of complexity over time has been investigated, which revealed to be possible to identify a crisis in the market by the increasing complexity and entropy and, in the particular case of the 2008-2009 crisis its been also was possible to observe a significant increase in complexity and entropy just before installation of the crisis itself, providing a pre-alarm of the event.

This is an interdisciplinary attempt to analyze the ongoing and progressive urban crises of homelessness and psychopathology. It intersects three disciplines: architecture, psychiatry, and existential-phenomenological philosophy. I have coined the phrase ‘anarcha-existentialist’ to describe a method of questioning political and epistemological authority. It extends work on schizophrenia conducted under the supervision of Roger Burggraeve. Primary philosophical sources include Emmanuel Levinas, Martin Heidegger, and Jacques Derrida. I used descriptive and interpretive phenomenology with thematic analysis in qualitative research on the subjective experience of severe mental illness across dwelling types on Vancouver’s downtown eastside. Emergent themes included a struggle for fundamental human rights, distressed personal time, and a relationships between homemaking and management of mental health. Histories of psychiatry and asylum architecture reveal their inseparability from the state. I carried out architectural case-studies of the Woodsquat, the Woodwards redevelopment project, and the Olympic Tent Village that took place during the 2010 Winter Olympics. The crises in question are intractable and existing interventions cannot succeed comprehensively. The disciplines in question appear as auxiliaries to a capitalist-state apparatus to which they are fettered. In architecture, dialectical narratives of modernity are perpetuated. Psychiatry acts to reify the American Psychiatric Association’s diagnostic and statistical manual (DSM5). Together they succeed in re-institutionalizing chronically mentally ill adults and youth while reducing social housing and low-income rental stock. Contemporary architecture theorists and architects have appropriated philosophical concepts to fabricate ethical narratives that justify the gentrification (or class transformation) of urban environments. Vancouverism is an example of the neoliberal economic collusion of civic government, the developer class, and clinical psychiatry. Criminalization of poverty in Vancouver is part of a North American trend. Behavioral genetics and genetic counseling are disciplines bearing direct methodological/ideological lineage to eugenics that inform public policy in Vancouver and elsewhere while aspersions are cast on them by a growing consnsensus of scientists. Complex theoretical models and non-pacifist modes of resistance are recommended to stem the crises. Revolutionary transcendence of nation-state models and establishment of worldwide socio-political relationships based on anarchism portend the diminishment of psychopathology in the world population while providing adequate homes for all.

Quels sont les modes de réponses les plus adaptés au traitement de l’inattendu et sous contrainte de temps pour maintenir ou renforcer la fiabilité organisationnelle ? Les travaux du courant HRO (High Reliability Organization) et du courant actionniste convergent sur le fait que l’individu constitue une source de fiabilité. Ils divergent néanmoins sur l’importance donnée au respect des règles face aux évènements imprévus. Afin d’analyser les comportements d’adaptation d’individus au sein d’un groupe restreint face à des situations à risques et inattendues sous contrainte de temps, l’attention est portée sur l’étude de situations nautiques vécues par des bâtiments de surface de la Marine nationale. Une première approche qualitative menée auprès d’experts du terrain étudié complétée par une approche quantitative réalisée à partir de 237 situations nautiques font ressortir les configurations à risques à l’origine d’accidents nautiques. Ces informations nous permettent de soumettre des équipes de quart passerelle à des situations à risques, dans le cadre d’une expérimentation, au moyen du simulateur de navigation de l’Ecole navale, école de formation des officiers de la Marine nationale. Les comportements de 96 équipes de quart passerelle, en formation initiale, sur le simulateur de navigation permettent de tester, selon les différentes situations, les réponses associées : improvisation de procédure, recours aux règles avec ou non l’usage de méta règles. Les résultats de l’expérimentation soulignent l’intérêt des méta règles dans le traitement des situations à haut niveau de complexité et nécessitant d’agir rapidement mais aussi les risques d’une improvisation non cadrée
What are the best types of answers given by a 4-member team of the French Navy without expertise in unexpected situations under time pressure in order to maintain or to increase organizational reliability ? HRO researchers agree with Interactionists on the fact that human beings can be considered as a reliability factor. Nevertheless, they disagree on one point: the need to respect the rules or not in unexpected events. A first qualitative study completed by a quantitative one (based on 237 nautical situations), emphasize different types of risk situations, responsible for accidents. Thanks to this data, an experiment based on the behavioral observations of 96 bridge-teams is set up on the simulator of the French Naval Academy, which trains all future officers of the French Navy. The aim of this work is to test different proposals of variables using either improvisation or rules, with or without meta rules. Results show that firstly, thanks to meta rules, the level of reliability is higher in high level complex situations under time pressure and secondly, results underline the risk of an improvised action without guidelines

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Made available in DSpace on 2017-09-13T16:53:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Ademar Alves dos Santos.pdf: 4852439 bytes, checksum: faf23580f879a88442fcddac5e2e8f80 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-05-30
This thesis aims to study the phenomenon of cyberbullying in the virtual electronic media. As a multidimensional phenomenon, cyberbullying is closely linked to the exponential growth of information and communication technology. The aggressive, intimidating, systematic and recurring behaviors typify this kind of bullying, which was previously restricted to physical, school and non-school spaces, and today transcends into cyberspace. The analyses of this thesis are based on the complex thinking, proposed by Edgar Morin. Therefore, the study was developed in a qualitative approach. By examining cyberbullying in the cyberspace, this research is also characterized by the use of the ethnographic methodology. The data and information obtained were analyzed in the light of three categories of Morin’s thought: interactivity, complexity and simplification. This interpretative procedure was carried out according to the assumptions of the content analysis defined by Bardin (2010), taking as a universe of research, discourses that involve the cyberbullying phenomenon published by three major Brazilian newspapers and by three virtual communities on Facebook. The study showed that, in the contents of the newspapers and virtual communities analyzed, by promoting a fragmented and sensationalist approach to cyberbullying, these information vehicles promote the construction of a reductionist and therefore partial view of this phenomenon, disregarding its biological, social, cultural and psychological dimensions, elements that make up the totality of this social event.
Cette thèse a pour objet d'étude le phénomène cyberbullying dans les médias électroniques virtuels. Comme phénomène multidimensionnel, le cyberbullying est étroitement lié à la croissance exponentielle de la technologie de l'information et de la communication. Les comportements agressifs, intimidateurs, systématiques et récurrents, caractérisent ce type de bullying qui, auparavant limité aux espaces présentiels, scolaires et non scolaires, transcende aujourd'hui au cyberespace. Les analyses de cette thèse se reposent sur la pensée complexe proposée par Edgar Morin. Par conséquent, l'étude est développée dans une approche qualitative. Lors de l'étude du Cyberbullying, dans le cyberespace, cette recherche se caractérise également par l'utilisation de la méthodologie ethnographique. Les données et les informations obtenues ont été analysées au regard de trois catégories de pensée "moriniano": Interactivité, Complexité et Simplification. Cette procédure interprétative a été réalisée en accord avec les présupposés de l'analyse de contenu définis par Bardin (2010), prenant en compte des discours impliquant le phénomène cyberbullying publiés par trois grands journaux brésiliens et trois communautés virtuelles de Facebook. L'étude a démontré que, dans les contenus des journaux ou des communautés virtuelles analysés, en promouvant une approche fragmentée et sensationnaliste du Cyberbullying, ces véhicules d'information favorisent la construction d'une vision réductionniste et, donc partielle de ce phénomène, sans tenir compte des dimensions biologiques, sociales, culturelles et psychologiques, éléments qui composent tout cet événement social.
Esta tesis tiene como objeto de estudio al fenómeno de acoso virtual (cyberbullying), en los medios electrónicos virtuales. Como fenómeno multidimensional el acoso cibernético (cyberbullying), está estrechamente vinculado con el crecimiento exponencial de las tecnologías de la información y de la comunicación. El comportamiento agresivo y la intimidación sistemática y recurrente, tipifican este tipo de agresión que anteriormente se encontraba restringida a los espacios del aula, escolares o no, que hoy trasciende al ciberespacio. Los análisis de esta tesis se fundamentan em el pensamiento complejo propuesto por Edgar Morin. Por tanto, el estudio se desarrolló mediante un enfoque cualitativo. Al examinar el acoso cibernético en el ciberespacio, esta investigación también se caracteriza por el uso de la metodología etnográfica. Los datos e informaciones obtenidas fueron analizados sobre la óptica de tres categorías del pensamento moriniano: la interactividad, la complejidad y la simplificación. Ese procedimiento interpretativo se realizo de acuerdo con las condiciones definidas por Bardin (2010), tomando como universo de investigación discursos que incluyen al fenómeno del cyberbullying publicados por tres grandes revistas brasileñas y por tres comunidades virtuales del Facebook. El estudio demostro que en los contenidos de las revistas y comunidades virtuales analizadas, al promover un abordaje fragmentado y sensacionalista del acoso cibernético esos vehículos de información promueven la construcción de una visión reducionista y por tanto parcial de ese fenómeno, sin considerar sus dimensiones biológicas, sociales, culturales y psicológicas, elementos que componen la totalidade de ese evento social.
Esta tese tem como objeto de estudo o fenômeno cyberbullying na mídia eletrônica virtual. Enquanto fenômeno multidimensional, o cyberbullying está intimamente ligado ao crescimento exponencial da tecnologia da informação e da comunicação. Os comportamentos agressivos, intimidatórios, sistemáticos e recorrentes tipificam esse tipo de bullying, que, antes, restrito aos espaços presenciais, escolares e não escolares, transcende, hoje, para o ciberespaço. As análises desta tese fundamentam-se no pensamento complexo, proposto por Edgar Morin. Para tanto, o estudo desenvolveu-se numa abordagem qualitativa. Ao examinar o cyberbullying, no ciberespaço, esta pesquisa caracteriza-se também pelo uso da metodologia etnográfica. Os dados e informações obtidos foram analisados à luz de três categorias do pensamento moriniano: interatividade, complexidade e simplificação. Esse procedimento interpretativo realizou-se de acordo com os pressupostos da análise de conteúdo definidos por Bardin (2010), tomando como universo de investigação discursos que envolvem o fenômeno cyberbullying publicados por três grandes jornais brasileiros e por três comunidades virtuais do Facebook. O estudo demonstrou que, nos conteúdos dos jornais e comunidades virtuais analisados, ao promover uma abordagem fragmentada e sensacionalista do cyberbullying, esses veículos de informação promovem a construção de uma visão reducionista e, portanto, parcial desse fenômeno, desconsiderando suas dimensões biológicas, sociais, culturais e psicológicas, elementos que compõem a totalidade desse evento social.

A theoretical complexity framework to analyse the fundamental business dynamics of financial markets and economies is developed through coherently coupling selected aspects of Gould's evolutionary theory concepts to the essence of Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis. This framework is grounded, or articulated in quantitative terms, through mathematical methods inspired at its core by von Neumann's automata theory, and by Maldenbrot's fractal geometry. By consistently applying such framework to the analysis of the emerging features within the financial markets and economies through a range of different and diverse datasets, markets, business dynamics and research problems, an embryonic Complexity Evolutionary Theory on Financial and Economic Crises ('CETFEC') is developed. CETFEC characterises financial markets and economies as complex systems, whereby the emergence of financial crises is regarded as the natural consequence of fundamental evolutionary processes that lead relevant agents to adapt to different environmental conditions. As a result, the theory has a marked distinction that it does not pre-define, categorise or exercise a level of judgement about the behaviour of the agents within the system. CETFEC aims to identify the signals that lead the existence of the necessary conditions for the emergence of crises, rather than trying to predict the timing of crises. As a result, the nature of shocks may be either or both, endogenous and exogenous. Fundamentally it holds that the understanding of the distribution and the diversity of the agents provide essential signals to the resilience of the system.

Cette thèse a pour objectif de prendre part à la réflexion sur le risque systémique et ses conséquences négatives sur l’économie réelle, et au débat sur la mise en place d’une règlementation macro-prudentielle (effets systémiques) efficace pour l’industrie bancaire en visant la stabilité financière. Pour cela, ce travail contribue à la littérature existante à travers plusieurs aspects. Dans le premier chapitre de cette thèse, sur un échantillon de banques de l’OCDE, nous étudions la manière dont la valeur de la franchise affecte le risque bancaire avant, pendant et après la crise financière mondiale de 2007–2008, en utilisant des mesures de risque individuelles et systémiques. Nous réétudions l’hypothèse de la valeur de la franchise bancaire et son rôle disciplinant au regard de la prise de risque et de l’expansion au risque systémique avant, pendant et après la crise financière. Nous montrons qu’avant la crise, la valeur de la franchise bancaire impacte positivement la prise de risque et le risque systémique non seulement des très grandes banques dites “too-big-too-fail” mais aussi des grandes banques européennes et américaines. Cependant, nos résultats montrent que pendant et après la crise, cet effet s’inverse. En considérant la période d’avant crise, nous allons plus loin dans nos investigations sur la relation entre la valeur de la franchise d’une part et la prise de risque et l’exposition au risque systémique d’autre part, en prenant en compte les effets des différences entre les cultures de prise de risque, la taille des banques et les stratégies bancaires. Le deuxième chapitre analyse la dynamique de la structure du capital des banques en fonction de leur niveau de capital interne ciblé et/ou externe imposé. Plus précisément, il examine plusieurs caractéristiques. (i) si les frictions du marché et les coûts d’ajustement du capital sont plus considérables lorsqu’il s’agit d’ajuster les ratios de fonds propres réglementaires par rapport à un ratio de levier simple. (ii) les mécanismes d’ajustement utilisés par les banques pour ajuster leur ratio de capital. (iii) comment la vitesse d’ajustement et les mécanismes d’ajustement diffèrent entre les grandes banques systémiques et complexes d’une part, et les banques moins systémiques d’autre part. Les résultats suggèrent que les banques sont plus flexibles et plus rapides dans l’ajustement de leur ratio de levier que dans l’ajustement de leurs ratios de capital réglementaire. Tandis que les banques d’importance systémique (SIFI) sont moins réactives que les autres banques dans l’ajustement de leur ratio de levier cible, elles sont néanmoins plus rapides à atteindre leurs ratios réglementaires cibles. D’autres investigations montrent que les SIFIs pourraient être plus réticentes à modifier leur base de capital en émettant ou en rachetant des actions et préfèrent une réduction plus importante ou une expansion plus rapide de leur taille. Dans le dernier chapitre, nous analysons comment la structure organisationnelle internationale et l’expansion géographique de 105 banques européennes cotées qui ont des filiales à travers le monde, pourrait affecter leur importance systémique au cours de la période 2005–2013. Nous examinons également comment le pic de la crise financière mondiale de 2008–2009 et l’ampleur de la crise de la dette souveraine européenne de 2010–2011 pourraient avoir affecté ces relations. Nous montrons que l’internationalisation et la complexité organisationnelle sont des facteurs importants du risque systémique bancaire, en particulier pendant les années de stress financier 2008–2013
The aim of this thesis is to contribute on the current debate on the systemic risk and its policy implications for the implementation of new (systemic risk-based) capital requirements in the banking industry. We extend the existing literature in many aspects. In the first chapter, we investigate how bank charter value affects risk for a sample of OECD banks by using standalone and systemic risk measures before, during, and after the global financial crisis of 2007–2008. We revisit the self‐discipline role of charter value on bank’s risk-taking and systemic risk prior, during and after the crisis. We show that bank charter value is positively associated with risk-taking and systemic risk for very large “too-big-too-fail” banks and large U.S. and European banks prior to the crisis, but such a relationship is inverted during and after the crisis. Then, we deepen investigation on this relation between charter value and risk-taking and systemic risk prior to the crisis, regarding differences in risk taking cultures, bank size and bank strategies. The second chapter analyzes the dynamics of banks’ capital structure towards their desired and/or imposed capital level. It analyzes several interesting features. (i) whether or not market frictions and capital adjustment costs are larger for regulatory capital ratios vis-à-vis a plain leverage ratio. (ii) which adjustment channels banks use to adjust their capital ratio. (iii) how the speed of adjustment and adjustment channels differ between large, systemic and complex banks versus small banks. Findings suggest that banks are more flexible and faster in adjusting to their leverage capital ratio than to regulatory capital ratios. Whereas, systemically important banks are slower than other banks in adjusting to their target leverage ratio but quicker in reaching their target regulatory ratios. Further explores show that SIFIs might be more reluctant to change their capital base by either issuing or repurchasing equity and prefer sharper downsizing or faster expansion. In the third chapter, we analyze how the international organization structure and the geographic expansion, of 105 European listed banks that have foreign affiliates around the world, could affect bank level measures of systemic risk during the 2005–2013 period. We also investigate how the peak of the global financial crisis of 2008–2009 and the height of the European sovereign debt crisis of 2010–2011 might have affected such relationships. We find that internationalization and foreign complexity are important drivers of bank systemic risk, particularly during the 2008–2013 financial stress years

The dissertation Reading Texts or ”Reality” investigate teachers use of interpretive communities in teaching literature in secondary school. It discusses how different learning outcomes generates from three interpretory frames for reading. Teachers can be looked upon as critics when they show unexperienced readers why and how they read an interprete literary texts. In their teaching,they don´t relate only to their students but also to thier own conception of subject matter and to a broader discourse in society that deals with questions of why and how we read literature. Following voices of the discourse are included in the study: eight teachers, curriculum texts, a journal for the profession and a journal för scholors.

Teachers combine several aims in their teaching of literature. They use literature to discuss life, gender and problems related to young people, text as faction. But, they also try to teach their students about narrathology and how to understand and interpretate fictional texts, text as fiction and a world of signs. The curriculum, however, means that literature is read only to gain knowledge about the world,oneself and other people. A contradiction is that one of the criterias for assement includes knowledge of texts and methodology from the academic subject. One of the other voices in the discourse, a journal for scholors, talk about the literary texts but very seldom about teaching the texts. Another voice, a journal for teachers in Swedish, follows the curriculum closely and discusses reading literature as a way to get knowledge of the world.

Research in subject matter didactics can investigate teaching, relate different aims to different outcomes and show possibilities for teaching literature and reading comprehension. If we choose only one interpretive community, we get one kind of reading comprehension.If we combine two in a complex teaching strategy, we extend learning and reading comprehension of our students.

This thesis deals with infrastructure network vulnerability analysis in the natural disaster context. It starts from the observation that infrastructure such as water supply or power grid has significant influence on natural disasters’ indirect consequences. The aim is to model the vulnerability to take efficient actions. The scientific approach is divided into two complementary parts. The first one deals with the vulnerability assessment, while the second one focuses on the decision aiding process to be implemented for the assessed vulnerability reducing. The proper vulnerability analysis is based on the analysis objects modelling. In order to achieve this, we will adopt a graph theory representation. A literature review will allow us to identify the graph structure which best suits the context of the thesis. In a multi network analysis environment, interdependences, i.e. relationships between components of the same network or different networks - are a determining factor for any vulnerability model. We have thus proposed an approach to model interdependence compatible with the graph theory. There are two types of relationships: the one first is functional (dependence), while the second one is dysfunctional (influence). The vulnerability is assessed by a simulation-based approach. It is composed of one part relating to the system ability to resist the feared event; and the other part relative to its ability to be back on its nominal state after the disaster. When the vulnerability is determined, the next step will be to take the necessary decisions to manage it. This part on the decision aiding is itself divided into two sub parts: first of all the process to be used for the crisis management is established. Then a methodology for decision aiding is proposed and results on a Decision Support System development. In the age of the internet and social networks, it is possible to deploy the application on the internet.

The deleterious effects of stress on cognition have been well established, both experimentally and in archival research. Such effects are not universal, however, and individual differences in the susceptibility of senior political leaders to these effects are of considerable importance. The present study employs Integrative Complexity (IC) coding to investigate the relationship between stresshl conditions and cognitive complexity in the case of U.S. President George W. Bush. In addition to assessing whether or not Mr. Bush shows unusual resistance to stress, as several contributors to the biographical and journalistic literatures concerning him and his presidency have suggested (Study I), the project was designed to also perform an initial test of the hypothesis that U.S. presidents’ patterns of cognitive response to stress can be predicted by the patterns evinced during their first successful presidential campaign (Study 11) and test theory which posits that conservatives show low IC across issues and conditions against the case of Mr. Bush (Study 111). The strength of the results was attenuated by low inter-rater reliability in measurement of IC. However, the initial results, subject to revision pending re-coding of the materials studied, disconfirmed assertions that Mr. Bush shows unusual resistance to stress (Study I), found qualified support for the hypothesis that U.S. presidents’ cognitive patterns under stress can be predicted by their patterns as presidential candidates (Study 11), and showed significant differences in President Bush’s IC across issue domains, lending support to the cognitive manager and value pluralism views of IC against the predictions of the ideologue and rigidity-of-the-right hypotheses. Further research is indicated, particularly with regard to studies I and 11.
Arts, Faculty of
Political Science, Department of
Graduate

A presente investigação sob a perspectiva epistemológica da complexidade tem como objectivo analisar como se podem caracterizar os comportamentos comunicacionais de liderança num contexto de crise. A questão de investigação é a seguinte: num contexto de crise organizacional, e numa perspectiva de liderança, da actuação do líder no seio da organização e com os seus stakeholders, como se podem caracterizar os comportamentos comunicacionais? Para responder a esta pergunta, foi adoptada a óptica do chamado paradigma da complexidade e foi escolhida a TAP, utilizando um método qualitativo. Será feita uma análise de conteúdo referente à performance mediática dos vários líderes no decorrer da greve dos pilotos da empresa entre os dias 1 e 10 de Maio, tendo sido seleccionadas notícias do Diário de Notícias, do Observador e do Público. Os resultados desta investigação interpretativista permitem concluir que os comportamentos comunicacionais dos líderes caracterizam-se, principalmente, por manifestarem uma tendência para a desorganização e para a desordem, podendo ter a ver com a situação problemática com que a TAP se depara.
This research, from an epistemological complexional perspective, has the purpose of analyzing how communicational behaviors of leadership can be characterized in a crisis context. The research main question is: in an organizational crisis context, and in a leadership perspective, how can the communication behaviors be characterized regarding the leader performance in the organization and within the stakeholders? To answer this question, it was adopted the so-called paradigm of complexity and it was chosen the company TAP, using a qualitative method. Moreover, it will be done a media performance analysis of the several existing leaders during the company pilots’ strike between the 1st and the 10th of May, based on the news from the “Diário de Notícias”, the “Observador” and the “Público”. From the results of this interpretive research, it was possible to conclude that the communicational behaviors of leaders are mainly characterized for expressing a tendency for disorder and disorganization, which may have to do with the problematic situation that TAP faces.

Tese de doutoramento em Ciência da Informação e Tecnologia, apresentada ao Departamento de Engenharia Informática da Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade de Coimbra
This thesis concerns the problems of epileptic seizure prediction and detection. We analyzed multichannel intracranial electroencephalogram (iEEG) and surface electroencephalogram (sEEG) recordings of patients suffering from refractory epilepsy, to access the brain state in real time by using relevant EEG features and computational intelligence techniques, and aiming for detection of pre-seizure state (in the case of prediction) or seizure onset times (in the case of detection). Our main original contribution is the development of a novel relative bivariate spectral power feature to track gradual transient changes prior to ictal events for real-time seizure prediction. Furthermore a novel robust and generalized measure for early seizure detection is developed, aimed to be used in closed-loop neurostimulation systems. The development of a general platform embeddable on a transportable low-power-budget device is of utmost importance, for real time warning to patients and their relatives about the impending seizure or beginning of an occurring seizure. The portable device can also be integrated to work in conjunction with a closed-loop neurostimulation or fast-acting drug injection mechanism to eventually disarm the impending seizure or to suppress the just-occurring seizure. Therefore, in this thesis we try to meet the dual-objective of developing algorithms for seizure prediction and early seizure detection that provide high sensitivity and low number of false alarms, fulfilling the requirements of clinical applications, while being low computational cost. To seek the first objective, a patient-specific seizure prediction was developed based on the extraction of novel relative bivariate spectral power features, which were then preprocessed, dimensionally reduced, and classified using a machine-learning algorithm. The introduced feature bears low complexity, and was discriminated using the powerful support vector machine (SVM) classifier. We analyzed the preictal EEG dynamics across different brain regions and throughout several frequency bands, using relative bivariate features to uncover the underlying mechanisms ending in epileptic seizures. The suggested prediction system was evaluated on long-term continuous sEEG and iEEG recordings of 24 patients, and produced statistically significant results with average sensitivity of 75.8% and false prediction rate of 0.1 per hour. Furthermore a novel statistical method was developed for proper selection of preictal period, and also for the evaluation of predictive capability of features, as well as for the predictability of seizures. The method uses amplitude distribution histograms (ADHs) of the features extracted from the preictal and interictal iEEG and sEEG recordings, and then calculates a criterion of discriminability among two classes. The method was evaluated on spectral power features extracted from monopolar and bipolar iEEG and sEEG recordings of 18 patients, in overall consisting of 94 epileptic seizures. To approach the objective of early seizure detection, we have formulated power spectral density (PSD) of bipolar EEG signal in the form of a measure of neuronal potential similarity (NPS) between two EEG signals. This measure encompasses the phase and amplitude similarities of two EEG channels in a simultaneous fashion. The NPS measure was then studied in several narrow frequency bands to find out the most relevant sub-bands involved in seizure initiations, and the best performing ratio of two NPS measures for seizure onset detection was determined. Evaluating on long-term continuous iEEG recordings of 11 patients with refractory partial epilepsy (overall of 1785 h and 183 seizures) the results showed high performance, while requiring a very low computational cost. On average, we could achieve a sensitivity of 86.3%, a low false detection rate (FDR) of 0.048/h, and a mean detection latency of 14.2s from electrographic seizure onsets, while in average preceding clinical onsets by 1.1s. Apart from the above mentioned primary objectives, we introduced two new and robust methods for offline or real-time labelling of epileptic seizures in long-term continuous EEG recordings for further studies. Methods include mean phase coherence estimated from bandpass filtered iEEG signals in specific frequency bands, and singular value decomposition (SVD) of bipolar iEEG signals. Both methods were evaluated on the same dataset employed in the previous study and demonstrated sensitivity of 84.2% and FDR of 0.09/h for sub-band mean phase coherence, and sensitivity of 84.1% and FDR of 0.05/h for bipolar SVD, on average. Most of this work was established in collaboration with the EPILEPSIAE project, aimed to predict of pharmacoresistant epileptic seizures. The developed methods in this thesis were evaluated by the accessibility of long-term continuous multichannel EEG recordings of more than 275 patients with refractory epilepsy, referred to as The European Epilepsy Database. This database was collected by the three clinical centers involved in EPILEPSIAE, and contains well-documented metadata. The results of this thesis are backing the hypothesis of the predictability of most of epileptic seizures using linear bivariate spectral-temporal brain dynamics. Moreover, the promising results of early seizure detection sustain the feasibility of integrating the proposed method with closed-loop neurostimulation systems. We hope the developed methods could be a step forward towards the clinical applications of seizure prediction and onset detection algorithms.
Esta tese versa os problemas de predição e de deteção de crises epiléticas. Analisa-se o eletroencefalograma multicanal intracraniano (iEEG) e de superfície (sEEG) de pacientes que sofrem de epilepsia refratária, para a estimação em tempo real do estado cerebral, usando características relevantes do EEG e técnicas de inteligência computacional, ambicionando a deteção do estado pré-ictal (no caso de previsão) ou dos instantes de início de uma crise (no caso de deteção). A principal contribuição original é o desenvolvimento de uma característica de potência espectral bivariada relativa para captar as mudanças transitórias graduais que levam a crises e que poderão ser usadas para previsão em tempo real. Além disso, é desenvolvida uma nova medida, robusta e generalizada para a deteção precoce, destinada a ser utilizada em sistemas de neuro estimulação em malha fechada. O desenvolvimento de uma plataforma geral possível de ser integrada num dispositivo transportável, energeticamente económico, é de grande relevância para o aviso em tempo real do doente e dos seus próximos sobre a eminência da ocorrência de uma crise. O dispositivo transportável também pode ser usado em malha fechada com um neuro estimulador ou com um dispositivo de injeção rápida de um fármaco que desarme eventualmente a crise em curso. Por isso nesta tese persegue-se o objectivo de desenvolver algoritmos para previsão mas também para deteção de crises. Em ambos os casos, pretende-se que os algoritmos tenham uma elevada sensibilidade e uma baixa taxa de falsos positivos, tornando viável a sua utilização clínica. Para o objectivo de previsão, desenvolveu-se um método de previsão personalizado baseado na extração de uma característica nova, denominada de potência relativa espectral bivariada, que foi submetida a pre-processamento, redução de dimensão e classificação com Máquinas de Vetores de Suporte (SVM). Esta nova característica, de baixa complexidade, é computacionalmente simples, mas permite a análise da dinâmica do EEG preictal em diferentes regiões do cérebro e ao longo de várias bandas de frequência, de modo a descobrir os mecanismos subjacentes às crises epiléticas. O sistema de previsão obtido foi avaliado em registos contínuos de sEEG e iEEG de 24 pacientes, e produziu resultados estatisticamente significativos com sensibilidade média de 75.8% e taxa de predição falsa de 0.1 por hora. Além disso, foi desenvolvido um novo método estatístico para a seleção apropriada do período preictal, e também para a avaliação da capacidade preditiva das características, assim como para a própria previsibilidade das crises. O método utiliza os histogramas de distribuição de amplitude (ADHS) das características extraídas nos períodos pré-ictal e ictal dos registos de iEEG e sEEG e, em seguida, calcula um critério de discriminabilidade entre as duas classes. O método foi avaliado nas características de potencia espectral extraídas de registos iEEG e sEEG, monopolares e bipolares de 18 pacientes, consistindo num número total de crises epilépticas de 94. O segundo objetivo, a deteção precoce de crises, foi abordado através da formulação da densidade de potência espectral (PSD) de canais de EEG bipolares na forma de uma medida da similaridade do potencial neuronal (NPS) entre dois sinais de EEG. Esta medida usa as similaridades entre as fases e as amplitudes de dois canais de EEG de um modo simultâneo. A medida NPS foi estudada em várias bandas estreitas de frequência de modo a descobrir-se quais as sub-bandas mais envolvidas na inicialização das crises; buscou-se assim a melhor razão entre duas NPS do ponto de vista da deteção precoce. Avaliadas em iEEG contínuos de longa duração de 11 doentes com epilepsia refratária parcial (num total de 1785 h e 183 crises), os resultados apresentam um desempenho com sensibilidade de 86.3% e taxa de deteção falsa (FDR) de 0.048/h, uma latência de 14.2s em relação ao início eletrográfico, sendo uma crise detetada em média 1.1s antes da sua manifestação clínica. Para além dos objetivos principais referidos acima, introduziram-se dois novos métodos, robustos, para etiquetagem em diferido e em tempo real das crises em registos contínuos de EEG de longa duração para estudos posteriores. Esses métodos incluem a coerência de fase média (mean phase coherence) estimada a partir de registos iEEG em bandas de frequência específicas (usando filtros passa-banda), e a decomposição em valores singulares (SVD) de sinais iEEG bipolares. Ambos os métodos foram avaliados no mesmo conjunto de dados do estudo anterior e apresentaram, em média, uma sensibilidade de 84.2% e um FDR de 0.09/h para a coerência de fase média calculada para as sub-bandas, e sensibilidade de 84.1% e FDR de 0.05/h para a metodologia que usa a decomposição SVD bipolar. Grande parte deste trabalho foi feito no âmbito do projeto EPILEPSIAE, visando a previsão de crises em doentes epiléticos fármaco-resistentes. Os métodos desenvolvidos nesta tese aproveitaram a acessibilidade aos dados bem documentados de mais de 275 pacientes que constituem a Base de Dados Europeia de Epilepsia (European Epilepsy Database), provenientes dos três centros hospitalares participantes no projeto. Os resultados desta tese apoiam a hipótese da previsibilidade da maioria das crises epiléticas usando dinâmicas cerebrais bivariadas lineares espetrais e temporais. Além disso os resultados são promissores relativamente à deteção precoce de crises e sustentam a fazibilidade da integração desses métodos com técnicas de neuroestimulação em malha fechada. Esperamos que os métodos desenvolvidos resultem num avanço no que respeita à aplicação clínica de algoritmos de previsão e deteção de crises.
FCT - SFRH/BD/71497/2010

The concept of strategy has advanced significantly from when the emphasis fell on comprehensive, systematic and rational planning. However, many of the assumptions that were embedded in traditional strategy models were deemed to be inadequate and outdated as we approached a new competitive milieu (Maritz, 2010). Strategic Management is still a comparatively young field and the existing toolbox of concepts and techniques remains woefully inadequate (Grant, 2010). This reality should force a re-examination of the traditional strategy paradigms (Maritz, 2010). The literature review has confirmed the observations by Maritz (2010) and Grant (2010) that indeed current strategic management paradigms or approaches were inadequate for unique business environments obtaining in a developing country in Africa, such as Zimbabwe. The motivation for this research, therefore, was to identify and recommend strategic management approaches or paradigms applicable to banks operating in a turbulent and chaotic environment. Based on an extensive literature review, in-depth interviews were conducted with six commercial banks (three that survived the turbulence and three that failed) during the period under review. The study established that the banks that survived the turbulence had a different strategic management approach from the traditional designed ones. It was also noted in this study that in turbulent environments, strategy-making is birthed through an emergent process. When events are moving at an unprecedented speed, as was happening in Zimbabwe, the time intervals between obtaining information, analysing information, taking decisions and implementing those decisions need to be tightly compressed. The researcher coined this process Strategic Intensity (SI). On the other hand, diversification as a strategy was found to be very risky for businesses that did not have a strong foundation and that were lacking in the appreciation of the risk complexion of the businesses into which they were diversifying. This research makes a significant contribution by identifying and recommending Strategic Management approaches applicable to businesses operating in a turbulent and chaotic environment in developing markets such as Zimbabwe. Furthermore, this research also contributes towards the current debate in academic literature amongst practitioners of strategy, about how strategy is really made in organisations (Maritz, 2010). The debate centres around two opposing views: one associated with strategy-making as a formal, deliberate plan, and the other associated with strategies as evolving, ever-changing sets of outcomes that are eventually realised. Finally, the researcher proposes that further studies be conducted at the end of this study.
Business Management
DBL

Many people do not like thinking about the future. If they do, over 50% of Canadians think “our way of life” (p. 7) will end within 100 years and over 80% of Canadians think “we need to change our worldview and way of life if we are to create a better future for the world” (Randle & Eckersley, 2015, p. 9). There is a good reason for this. Alarms have sounded over global urgent complex problems with potential for catastrophic consequences such as the development of artificial intelligence, climate change, mass extinction, nuclear war and pandemics (Marien & Halal, 2011). Society is also increasingly fragmenting as imminent crises build on lack of understanding, the sense of incapacity to act, fear, distrust, blame and a lack of hope. This struggle for humanity’s survival is complicated by the turbulent global environment in which institutions continue to follow path-dependent trajectories set forth in a different time and context. Governments at various levels face a problem of “fit” between current structures and processes, that have not progressed sufficiently to meet changing needs of a global society mired in complexity and governance challenges. However, hope exists. Incremental progress on many fronts and a massive amount of efforts and resources are being engaged worldwide. There are emerging fields, lenses and tools that can potentially alleviate complex problems and address this emergency. The purpose of this dissertation is to understand and assess dialogue-based foresight practices being applied towards complex problems in Canada to provide insights into how these practices can assist society to alleviate global urgent complex problems and their impacts, within this backdrop of looming crises. Foresight, alternatively known as future studies or scenario-building, is a forward-looking practice recognized and used globally with over 100 research organizations focused on foresight, widespread usage by firms and over 18 countries involved in foresight activities (Berze, 2014b). Overall literature findings suggest foresight is widely and at least incrementally effective with a number of impacts in various areas (Calof, Miller, & Jackson, 2012; March, Therond, & Leenhardt, 2012; Meissner, Gokhberg, & Sokolov, 2013) but the extent of this effectiveness, the mechanisms involved, and the specific foresight benefits per type of project needs further research and evidence. For instance, limited literature exists on whether foresight can transform complex situations and if so, under what conditions. Thus, opportunities exist for assessing and increasing foresight’s impact. This dissertation is a contextualized, systematic empirical study that taps into transdisciplinary literature and practice, case studies of how foresight has been used to address specific types of complex problems in Canada, as well as surveys and interviews with foresight experts and participants. This dissertation uses a foresight community scan and a comparative case study approach to provide practical and theoretical benefits to foresight and complex problem area stakeholders. The research focuses on studying the broad interactions of foresight and identifying the impacts of dialogue-based foresight projects on people and the outcomes of complex problems. The dissertation concludes that dialogue-based foresight is a valuable and unique practice for ameliorating complex problems and their consequences. Insights are offered towards dialogue-based foresight’s potential contributions within the context of other efforts directed at humanity’s struggle for survival and global complex problems. These insights can then foster the further development and application of dialogue-based foresight on a global scale to alleviate complex problems and their effects. The dissertation outlines recommendations on key next steps to realize these potential contributions.
Graduate