Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „Comparison among Frege“

Three most frequently used methods for fat transesterification were compared using rendering plant fat (RPF) as model. Acid-catalysed transesterification was found to be the most effective (conversion 90%) at optimum conditions (fat: methanol ratio 1:10, sulphuric acid amount of 2% v/v, temperature 95°C). Base-catalysed transesterification of RPF on the other hand, results in much lower conversion (45%) at optimum conditions (fat:methanol ratio 1:20, NaOH amount 8% w/v, optimum temperature 95°C). The difference is done (among others) by the fact that RPF has high concentration of free acid (high acidity number) compared with the fats usually used for transesterification and that free acids are not esterified in alkaline media. Enzyme-(lipase) catalysed reaction could lead to partial esterification of free fatty acids, but with much lower reaction velocity. This fact leads to higher conversion in the case of enzyme-catalysed transesterification of RPF compared with base-catalysed reaction; nevertheless, even in this case the conversion is much lower in comparison with acid-catalysed reaction. The optimum conversion in enzyme-catalysed reaction was 55%.  

The integration of a learning management system (LMS) into higher education and other educational levels has become a significant factor in the adoption of digital learning approaches. With a vast array of options available, making accurate decisions in this dynamic landscape poses challenges. This paper seeks to streamline the selection process and ensure the most suitable match for an institution's particular goals and needs. This research primarily centres on the investigation of free e-learning platforms, chosen for their cost-effectiveness and alignment with the study's specific scope. Hence, this research explores the preferences of Malaysian educators concerning LMS usage, focusing on a specific comparison between Google Classroom and Microsoft Teams. The research employed a quantitative approach, utilising an online survey to collect and record domain comparisons. The results revealed that educators showed a preference for Google Classroom over Microsoft Teams when it came to teaching and facilitation. Several factors contributed to this preference, as evident from the analysis of the collected data, which fell into three main categories: functional suitability, compatibility, and portability. It is hoped that this study will help Malaysian educators to comprehend the suitability of technology for learning and the exchange of knowledge to benefit the students, institutions and the country in general. Keywords: E-Learning; Language Learning Platform; Learning Management System; Malaysian Educators; Platform Comparison

The research was conducted to understand the diversity of microbial communities in the rice cultivars KDM 105 in the rice fields at Sanamchaikate, Chachoengsao Province. The culturing bacterial community in paddy soil before planting, during the planting and sowing of rice, and after rice collection as well as isolation of free nitrogen fixing bacteria under aerobic and anaerobic conditions were identified by molecular comparision of 16S small subunit rRNA genes as well as species diversity and their richness by Most Probable Number (MPN) method. Culturable bacterial isolates in the soil around the roots of rice varieties were determined for their physical appearances on the solid culture (Plate culturing method) and the microscopic observation under light microscope. It was found that bacteria in the paddy soil complemented with organic fertilizers and no pesticide application for over five years had a pH range from 5.2 to 5.5 cultivated jasmine rice, 8-9 log Units of free N2-fixing bacteria near the roots compared with those in other area having 4-5 log Units. Most of them were identified to be Pseudomonas sp. Microbacterium sp. Bacillus sp. Stenotrophomonas sp. and Burkholderia sp., by homology comparison of 16S rDNA gene at 98, 97, 99, 99.5, and 99%, respectively. This research revealed the recognizable complex and change in soil bacteria presented in paddy ecosystem. In any critical change of to the soil, the study of microbial diversity, compositions and their richness can be further useful for indicating proper soil management.

Abstract. In the present paper, numerical and experimental investigations of a model wind turbine with a diameter of 3.0 m are described. The study has three objectives. The first one is the provision of validation data. The second one is to estimate the influence of the wind tunnel walls by comparing measurements to simulated results with and without wind tunnel walls. The last objective is the comparison and evaluation of methods of high fidelity, namely computational fluid dynamics, and medium fidelity, namely lifting-line free vortex wake. The experiments were carried out in the large wind tunnel of the TU Berlin where a blockage ratio of 40 % occurs. With the lifting-line free vortex wake code QBlade, the turbine was simulated under far field conditions at the TU Berlin. Unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes simulations of the wind turbine, including wind tunnel walls and under far field conditions, were performed at the University of Stuttgart with the computational fluid dynamics code FLOWer. Comparisons among the experiment, the lifting-line free vortex wake code and the computational fluid dynamics code include on-blade velocity and angle of attack. Comparisons of flow fields are drawn between the experiment and the computational fluid dynamics code. Bending moments are compared among the simulations. A good accordance was achieved for the on-blade velocity and the angle of attack, whereas deviations occur for the flow fields and the bending moments.

We show that the well-known Khattri et al. methods and Zheng et al. methods are identical. In passing, we propose a suitable calculation formula for Khattri et al. methods. We also show that the families of eighth-order derivative-free methods obtained in [8] include some existing methods, among them the above-mentioned ones as particular cases. We also give the sufficient convergence condition of these families. Numerical examples and comparison with some existing methods were made. In addition, the dynamical behavior of methods of these families is analyzed.

The aims of this study were (i) to compare basketball game-related statistics in women by region (Africa, America, Asia, Europe), and (ii) to identify characteristics that discriminate performances for each region. A total of 134 games from each continental championship held in 2017 were analyzed. A one-way ANOVA followed by a Bonferroni-adjusted pairwise comparison was performed to evaluate differences in each variable between the continents. A discriminant analysis was performed to identify game-related statistics that discriminate among the continents. The Asian and European championships overall showed similar performance profiles: Low numbers of possessions and turnovers, and high numbers of successful field goals and assists. However, the European championship was more closely contested than the Asian championship. The African championship was characterized by high numbers of possessions, free throws, and turnovers. The homogeneity of the American championship was low, and some of the cases have similarities with the African championship, whereas other cases have similarities with the European championship. On average, the American championship was characterized by low numbers of successful field goals and assists, and high numbers of steals and turnovers. It is suggested that women’s basketball games are played in a different manner in each region of the world.

The “Free Hormone Hypothesis” posits that only free, unbound hormone is biologically active and available to tissues. Conventional biomedical wisdom proposes that corticosteroid-binding globulin (CBG) normally binds 90-95% of blood glucocorticoid (GC), rendering it unavailable to tissues. Under chronic stress, GC levels greatly exceed binding capacity resulting in impaired bodily function and reduced fitness. However, under normal conditions in northern and southern flying squirrels, less than 10% of GC is bound, presenting a major challenge to the hypothesis. To assess the extent of variation in these properties among vertebrates, I compared all species (88) with known GC and CBG and levels. 92% conform reasonably to known convention. Flying squirrels appear as extreme species, as do New World monkeys, yet both groups evolved from ancestors that followed normal convention. I speculate as to how this state evolved and persisted through time.

The Netherlands are among the most secular countries in Western Europe, with the proportion of those without religious affiliation now accounting for more than 60% of the Dutch population. The chapter addresses three questions. First, why did the power of religious and church ties weaken disproportionately in the Netherlands in comparison to other Western European countries, despite the fact that rates of participation were once above average? Second, why was the Catholic Church more strongly affected by this decline than the liberal Dutch Reformed Church? Third, can an increase in the importance of a highly individualized—Christian or non-Christian, or syncretistic—religiosity be observed that compensates for these losses by the churches? To answer these questions, the chapter refers to so-called pillarization, the ambivalent consequences of the Second Vatican Council, and the remarkable vitality and potential for conflict within the shrunken segment of religious orientations and practices in the Netherlands.

This chapter examines restrictions that professional sports leagues and governing bodies place on the freedom of movement of professional players—both negotiated and imposed—and how these restrictions fit within the antitrust/competition and labor law regimes. This chapter engages in a comparison of the North American and European “models” of restrictions and finds that the North American “model” is more likely to withstand antitrust/competition law scrutiny. The North American model falls under the protections offered to collectively bargained agreements, while the European model currently faces scrutiny for potential violations of European competition law. Nevertheless, this chapter suggests that these two models are likely to converge as the internationalization of sport continues. European governing bodies may be pushed to negotiate with players more in the future, while North American leagues are already adopting “European” practices in regard to facilitating player movement among other professional leagues.

All ingredients of the previous chapters are combined in order to build a gauge invariant theory of the interactions among the elementary particles. We start with a unified model of the weak and the electromagnetic interactions. The gauge symmetry is spontaneously broken through the BEH mechanism and we identify the resulting BEH boson. Then we describe the theory known as quantum chromodynamics (QCD), a gauge theory of the strong interactions. We present the property of confinement which explains why the quarks and the gluons cannot be extracted out of the protons and neutrons to form free particles. The last section contains a comparison of the theoretical predictions based on this theory with the experimental results. The agreement between theory and experiment is spectacular.

Are there compelling reasons why we should not have serious gun control at least in the United States? Would any attempt at control fail in the way that Prohibition failed? I explain why the comparison with Prohibition is illicit. I propose how we should proceed incrementally given the absence of wholly convincing rights-based or empirical arguments. We can implement a series of small forms of control: universal registration, an assault weapons ban, retaining gun-free zones, among others. I then explore indirect methods of achieving some aims of control without employing explicit coercion. In particular, I argue that gun owners should be required to carry liability insurance to guarantee that those harmed by guns are appropriately and adequately compensated. This could be augmented by a policy of strict liability.

Arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy is a heart muscle disease clinically characterized by life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias and pathologically by an acquired and progressive dystrophy of the ventricular myocardium with fibrofatty replacement. The clinical manifestations of arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy vary according to the ‘phenotypic’ stage of the underlying disease process. Since there is no ‘gold standard’ to reach the diagnosis of arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy, multiple categories of diagnostic information have been combined. Different diagnostic categories include right ventricular morphofunctional abnormalities (by echocardiography and/or angiography and/or cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging), histopathological features on endomyocardial biopsy, electrocardiogram, arrhythmias, and family history, including genetics. The diagnostic criteria were revised in 2010 to improve diagnostic sensitivity, but with the important prerequisite of maintaining diagnostic specificity. Quantitative parameters have been put forward and abnormalities are defined based on the comparison with normal subject data. A definite diagnosis of arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy is achieved when two major, or one major and two minor, or four minor criteria from different categories are met. The main differential diagnoses are idiopathic right ventricular outflow tract tachycardia, myocarditis, sarcoidosis, dilated cardiomyopathy, right ventricular infarction, congenital heart diseases with right ventricular overload, and athlete’s heart. Among diagnostic tools, contrast-enhanced cardiovascular magnetic resonance is playing a major role in detecting subepicardial-midmural left ventricular free wall involvement, even preceding morphofunctional abnormalities. Moreover, electroanatomical mapping is an invasive tool able to detect early right ventricular free wall involvement in terms of low-voltage areas. Both techniques are increasingly used in the diagnostic work-up although are not yet part of diagnostic criteria.

The present study captures a case of language variation in the verbal system of Aanaar (Inari) Saami, namely that of the conditional perfect, which can be expressed by two periphrastic constructions. The aim of this paper is twofold: (1) to give a diachronic description of the Aanaar Saami conditional perfect and (2) to investigate whether its variation can be considered to be ‘free’ or whether it is explainable by intra- and extralinguistic determinants. The data consists of language samples gathered in 1887 and 1952, the Aanaar Saami text corpus and a survey carried out in 2020. The diachronic comparison indicates changes in the variation which are, among others, discussed in the light of linguistic interference and Aanaar Saami’s recent revitalisation.

“Transcendental Functions” examines logarithmic, exponential, inverse trig, and hyperbolic functions, among others. The traditional definition of the natural logarithm as a definite integral is used. Several sections of fairly standard material follow, with the exception that limits of these functions are computed using hyperreal numbers. The diagram of levels of hyperreal numbers is updated to include these new functions, culminating in its use for easy comparisons of rates of growth with application to big-oh notation. This system also reduces (but does not eliminate) the need for l’Hospital’s rule, which is presented along with a discussion of various indeterminate forms. The chapter ends with an optional discussion of nonelementary functions developed in the same manner as the natural logarithm. The sine integral function is used as an example, and others are explored in the exercises, with the purpose of alerting readers to the existence of functions beyond those studied in calculus.

The interaction of the free surface with either lifting and non lifting, submerged, bodies moving beneath it is of primary interest in naval architecture. Indeed, there are many examples of possible applications such as rudders, stabilizer fins, hydrofoils among the others. The hydrodynamic problem of a submerged lifting body moving close to a free surface presents several complexities that need to be properly addressed in order to achieve a reliable solution. The problem is studied in the framework of a potential flow theory and solved by using an ad-hoc developed Vortex Lattice Method (VLM). The developed method is described and validated by comparison against available data on a flat plate. The analysis then focuses on the convergence properties of the method, especially with respect to the panel dimensions used for the free surface discretization, and on a sensitivity with respect to some peculiar operating parameters such as the depth of the body with respect to the free surface and the angle of attack with respect to the incoming flow.

The Texas and California models have polarized over labor policy. Texas has been a national leader in promoting a free-market approach to the employer-employee relationship. Texans were early supporters of the “open shop” and advanced this policy by coining and promoting the term “right to work.” In addition, Texas has restricted public sector unionization and has dismissed most other elements of the labor agenda. By comparison, California is one of the nation’s most union-friendly states and the most assertive in regulating the workplace. California has been a leader in recognizing the right of groups to unionize and strike and in enacting workplace regulations that exceed federal minimums. For example, the state was among the first to adopt a $15 minimum wage. California also provides its public sector workers comparatively generous pay, pensions, and benefits. The chapter concludes by presenting basic trade-offs of the two models.

Abstract In 1985—nearly forty years after my father’s death—the bulk of his manuscripts were turned over to me, following termination of a trust set up by his will. Having access to these manuscripts enabled the comparison of published editions of his works with the manuscript sources. I had been aware of my father’s remark, made in a casual conversation, lamenting the many errors that remained in his published music. Among my father’s papers are printed copies of some of his compositions with the note “Corrected copy” on the outside cover. He had once explained to me the procedure by which printed music could be made as free of errors as possible: engraving from the best manuscript source; correction of first proofs; verification and correction, if necessary of second proofs; “and then, when finally the work is printed, it still has some incorrect details.”

Being a simple semi-structured data model, JSON has been widely accepted as a simple way to store, query, modify, and exchange data among applications. In comparison with schema-oriented relational data model to store, query, and update application data, JSON data model has the advantage of being self-contained, free from schema evolution issues, and flexible enough to enable agile style development paradigm. Therefore, during the last 5 years, SQL/JSON standard has been established as foundation for managing JSON data in SQL standard and there have been JSON functionalities added into RDBMS products to support SQL/JSON standard to various degree. In this chapter, the authors will analyze the strength and weakness of using JSON as the data model to manage data for applications. For use cases where JSON data model is ideal, they present the design approaches to store, index, query, and update JSON in the kernel of RDBMS to support SQL/JSON standard defined operations effectively and efficiently.

The media streaming server technology have been developed in the recent past using free software and open source approaches. But commercial approaches are preferred by certain multimedia big enterprises. These enterprises dominate the mobile media delivery business. For this reason we think it is interesting to discover the main characteristics of the principal commercial platforms to deliver mobile video streaming to mobile devices and its main key features: Media and delivery components. We will give our vision on: Real Networks’ Helix Media delivery components based on RTSP and Microsoft’s IIS Media Services based on HTTP. The aim of this book chapter is to provide detailed insight into these different streaming approaches and how these platforms and protocols aid in building flexible streaming applications for mobile devices. A comparison among these approaches is also provided and also we present the delivery of video streaming to Apple mobile devices in the two commercial approaches.

Little is known about protein sequences unique in humans. Here, we performed alignment-free sequence comparisons based on the availability (frequency bias) of short constituent amino acid (aa) sequences (SCSs) in proteins to search for human-specific proteins. Focusing on 5-aa SCSs (pentats), exhaustive comparisons of availability scores among the human proteome and other nine mammalian proteomes in the nonredundant (nr) database identified a candidate protein containing WRWSH, here called FAM75, as human-specific. Examination of various human genome sequences revealed that FAM75 had genomic DNA sequences for either WRWSH or WRWSR due to a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP). FAM75 and its related protein FAM205A were found to be produced through alternative splicing. The FAM75 transcript was found only in humans, but the FAM205A transcript was also present in other mammals. In humans, both FAM75 and FAM205A were expressed specifically in testis at the mRNA level, and they were immunohistochemically located in cells in seminiferous ducts and in acrosomes in spermatids at the protein level, suggesting their possible function in sperm development and fertilization. This study highlights a practical application of SCS-based methods for protein searches and suggests possible contributions of SNP variants and alternative splicing of FAM75 to human evolution.

The business sector increasingly subsidizes financially challenged institutions. Representative examples would include health care, major sports arenas, and penal facilities. Among the recent beneficiaries of corporate largesse are schools. Such assistance blurs social roles and raises serious moral concerns, especially those of moral agency. Education, more so than other social institutions, determines the kind of citizen and moral character a person can become. Put differently, education operates on virtue development that may override the fiscal logic of profit-maximization practiced by corporations. In this paper I argue that whatever benefit received by struggling schools is short-lived by comparison to the long range influence achieved by a corporation via advertisements that affect the psychological preferences of children. I contend that this makes the exchange unfair insofar as it violates the autonomy of the student. Education should provide a free and open atmosphere in which critical points of view are discussed. If corporations are permitted untrammeled access to schools, social views may become one-dimensional. Economic salvation would effectively trade on the moral failure of schools.

The English NHS is of significance among health policy observers around the globe for various reasons. The NHS is particularly noteworthy for the fact that, for many, it represents the high-income world’s best attempt to have built and maintained a ‘national’ health system with a focus on universal access to care that is free at point of service. The NHS has been in transition for several years. Many commentators have highlighted the role and influence of US market ideals in this transition, with various UK governments clearly pushing this agenda. However, is often useful to look to countries more closely comparable to England, such as New Zealand, for comparison with a view to improvement. This chapter takes such an approach in looking at the NHS from abroad. It draws upon the case of NZ which, in many ways, is very similar to England when it comes to health policy and the healthcare system. In doing so, it aims to provide a critique of the NHS reforms and demonstrate that there are alternatives to the policies and structures being pursued for the English NHS by the Coalition government.

Metal matrix composites (MMC) and intermetallic matrix composites (IMC) are materials of complex structure. Nominally defect-free, as-manufactured MMC requires nondestructive evaluation (NDE) for quality assurance and process monitoring purposes. In this work, three NDE techniques — ultrasonics, eddy current, and X-ray radiography — were applied to un-damaged NiFeAI/Wf coupons. Images of the coupons were obtained using the three techniques. The NDE results were compared among themselves, and correlations were sought between these results and microstructural features of the specimen. Consistencies were found among the NDE results and a strong correlation was found between the spatial variation of fiber density and the NDE signals.

The objective of this research was to determinate the correlation between physical activity and body mass index among boys and girls aged 15 to 18 years. The data collected in the present research is obtained through an online questionnaire (HBSC) which contained questions from different topics, however in this research the focus is on data related to physical activity and body mass index.. The sample of respondents was formed by a total of 503 students (249 male-253 female) from Skopje, with an average age of 15 to 18 years. Body mass index is calculated in correspondence to the international standards for young people adopted by The International Obesity Task Force (IOTF). To determine statistically significant differences the test ch2 is used. The BMI survey results show that the boys are more likely to be considered overweight or obese in comparison to girls (p≤,008). Boys are also more involved in physical activities than girls and also have more free time(p≤,000).

A study of the loading of an oblique wave-current field on a slender cylinder in a 3D flow frame is reported in this paper. The three dimensional expressions describing the characteristics of the combined wave-current field in terms of mass, momentum and energy flux conservation equations are formulated. The parameters before the interaction of the oblique wave-free uniform current and current-free waves are used to formulate the kinematics of the flow field. These expressions are also employed to formulate and calculate the loads imparted by the wave-current fluid flow on a bottom mounted slender vertical cylinder. A comparison of the obtained results due to the present model to those obtained using three other models being used in the offshore industry is shown for a range of the normalized current parameters. One of these three models is proposed by the American Petroleum Institute (API), which is based on a superposition principle. Morison et al equation is deployed for the load computations in all cases. Comparisons among the obtained results in a normalized manner are shown and discussed.

Abstract The hydrodynamics of surface piercing struts and pile-like structures in general presents some very complex fluid dynamics phenomena that are worth investigating. Among them there are the forward wave pile-up at stagnation, the wave breaking with flow reversal like that observed in Bidone-type hydraulic jumps, flow separation caused by interactions of steep free-surface waves and the turbulent wall boundary layer. Such a type of flow structures plays a key role in several engineering applications, ranging from naval architecture to civil and ocean engineering. The hydrodynamic analysis of different surface-piercing struts in tandem configuration has been done in the framework of a Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamic approach available through the open-source software DualSPHysics, developed to exploit the GP-GPU architecture to speed up the computation. A numerical wave tank has been set-up to carry out calm water tests. Beyond the influence of the forward speed, the analysis has focused on the effect of three main geometric parameters establishing the configuration: the longitudinal and the lateral distance among the vertical, surface-piercing, struts and the relative size among them. The mean and the rms values of the unsteady near-field free surface elevation have been analyzed and compared among the selected cases and interaction effects are studied in comparison to the free surface obtained for the equivalent single strut configuration.

The study of dynamics of multiple fires is important to gain a physical insight of the conditions under which destructive phenomena could result in city fires such those caused by earthquakes. Particularly, heavy populated cities such as Tokyo are highly vulnerable. Unfortunately, previous studies on multiple fires and their dynamics are rather limited. An extensive experimental study has been carried out to examine the fire interactions among freestanding equidistant multiple fires in square arrays, to supplement the authors’ previous related studies. Four square arrays, namely, 5×5, 9×9, 15×15 and 17×17, with various inter-fuel pan distances were treated. The burnout time (BOT) from ignition at every fire in the array was experimentally recorded and expressed as multiples of the BOT of a single free-standing fire as a reference. Since the BOT at any fire location in an array is inversely proportional to an average burning rate (BR) at that location, the local BR can then be directly inferred, and their comparisons thus indications of the physical interactions as affected by the fire location, inter-fuel pan distance and size of the fire array. It is shown that all these parameters play remarkable roles in the interactions among multiple fires in square fire arrays.

The speed reduction, additional resistance or slamming, which are caused by the large amplitude of ship motions, should be restricted completely for oceangoing large fast ship, because of the strict time-punctuality and high value of the cargo. In the present work, comparison of seaworthiness properties, such as no speed reduction and absolutely no slamming, is made among four types of ship hulls, i.e. mono-hull, ordinary SWATH, trimaran and Resonance-Motion-Free SWATH (RMFS). The last one can be regarded as a special type of catamaran. As a result of extremely small water plane, the restoring moments are negative for the RMFS hull, which leads to free of resonance in the motion responses. Experiments in towing tank and calculations are carried out to examine hydrodynamic forces and motion responses in waves. Calculations are generally based on potential theory modified by adding the viscous effects and including fin lifts. The results of RMFS are compared with those of mono-hull ship, ordinary SWATH ship as well as trimaran ship. The heave motion responses of RMFS are very small in comparison with those of other ship hulls. On the other hand, the pitch motion responses of RMFS are considerably small in comparison with those of mono-hull or trimaran, but are not as small as expected in comparison with those of ordinary SWATH. The reason is that a soft spring system is applied in experiments, to replace the proportional control action supplied by the fin lift. The spring system can not make use of the advantage of the negative restoring moment, which is a characteristic of RMFS. Accordingly, a new control system of ship motion by means of the lift force from fins should be developed.

When model experiments are performed the viscous and surface tension forces are not scaled accordingly. Thus not all of the features of the flow can be satisfactorily reproduced at model scale. A comparative set of experiments for measuring the model resistance, the free surface elevation and the flow velocity in the near field, have been carried out for models of different scales for evaluating the influence of the dimensions in reproducing the complete wave breaking dynamics. The resistance curves of the models show that the scale effect is present both for low and high speeds. Comparison of the averaged surface elevation reveals that the largest model possess already some of the full scale features. The comparison of the flow velocity fields highlights substantial differences among the models in the formation of the vortical structures. The influence of these vortices on the free surface is discussed and a correlation with surface scars is proposed.

Background. The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists and the Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine plan a new evidence-based joint consensus statement to address the preferred visit schedule and the use of televisits for routine antenatal care. This systematic review will support the consensus statement. Methods. We searched PubMed®, Cochrane databases, Embase®, CINAHL®, ClinicalTrials.gov, PsycINFO®, and SocINDEX from inception through February 12, 2022. We included comparative studies from high-income countries that evaluated the frequency of scheduled routine antenatal visits or the inclusion of routine televisits, and qualitative studies addressing these two topics. We evaluated strength of evidence for 15 outcomes prioritized by stakeholders. Results. Ten studies evaluated scheduled number of routine visits and seven studies evaluated televisits. Nine qualitative studies also addressed these topics. Studies evaluated a wide range of reduced and traditional visit schedules and approaches to incorporating televisits. In comparisons of fewer to standard number of scheduled antenatal visits, moderate strength evidence did not find differences for gestational age at birth (4 studies), being small for gestational age (3 studies), Apgar score (5 studies), or neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admissions (5 studies). Low strength evidence did not find differences in maternal anxiety (3 studies), preterm births (3 studies), and low birth weight (4 studies). Qualitative studies suggest that providers believe fewer routine visits may be more convenient for patients and may free up clinic time to provide additional care for patients with high-risk pregnancies, but both patients and providers had concerns about potential lesser care with fewer visits. In comparisons of hybrid (televisits and in-person) versus in-person only visits, low strength evidence did not find differences in preterm births (4 studies) or NICU admissions (3 studies), but did suggest greater satisfaction with hybrid visits (2 studies). Qualitative studies suggested patients and providers were open to reduced schedules and televisits for routine antenatal care, but importantly, patients and providers had concerns about quality of care, and providers and clinic leadership had suggestions on how to best implement practice changes. Conclusion. The evidence base is relatively sparse, with insufficient evidence for numerous prioritized outcomes. Studies were heterogeneous in the care models employed. Where there was sufficient evidence to make conclusions, studies did not find significant differences in harms to mother or baby between alternative models, but evidence suggested greater satisfaction with care with hybrid visits. Qualitative evidence suggests diverse barriers and facilitators to uptake of reduced visit schedules or televisits for routine antenatal care. Given the shortcomings of the evidence base, considerations other than proof of differences in outcomes may need to be considered regarding implications for clinical practice. New studies are needed to evaluate prioritized outcomes and potential differential effects among different populations or settings.

Campylobacter spp. are the most common bacterial cause of foodborne illness in the UK, with chicken considered to be the most important vehicle for this organism. The UK Food Standards Agency (FSA) agreed with industry to reduce Campylobacter spp. contamination in raw chicken and issued a target to reduce the prevalence of the most contaminated chickens (those with more than 1000 cfu per g chicken neck skin) to below 10 % at the end of the slaughter process, initially by 2016. To help monitor progress, a series of UK-wide surveys were undertaken to determine the levels of Campylobacter spp. on whole UK-produced, fresh chicken at retail sale in the UK. The data obtained for the first four years was reported in FSA projects FS241044 (2014/15) and FS102121 (2015 to 2018). The FSA has indicated that the retail proxy target for the percentage of highly contaminated raw whole retail chickens should be less than 7% and while continued monitoring has demonstrated a sustained decline for chickens from major retailer stores, chicken on sale in other stores have yet to meet this target. This report presents results from testing chickens from non-major retailer stores (only) in a fifth survey year from 2018 to 2019. In line with previous practise, samples were collected from stores distributed throughout the UK (in proportion to the population size of each country). Testing was performed by two laboratories - a Public Health England (PHE) laboratory or the Agri-Food & Biosciences Institute (AFBI), Belfast. Enumeration of Campylobacter spp. was performed using the ISO 10272-2 standard enumeration method applied with a detection limit of 10 colony forming units (cfu) per gram (g) of neck skin. Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) to selected antimicrobials in accordance with those advised in the EU harmonised monitoring protocol was predicted from genome sequence data in Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli isolates The percentage (10.8%) of fresh, whole chicken at retail sale in stores of smaller chains (for example, Iceland, McColl’s, Budgens, Nisa, Costcutter, One Stop), independents and butchers (collectively referred to as non-major retailer stores in this report) in the UK that are highly contaminated (at more than 1000 cfu per g) with Campylobacter spp. has decreased since the previous survey year but is still higher than that found in samples from major retailers. 8 whole fresh raw chickens from non-major retailer stores were collected from August 2018 to July 2019 (n = 1009). Campylobacter spp. were detected in 55.8% of the chicken skin samples obtained from non-major retailer shops, and 10.8% of the samples had counts above 1000 cfu per g chicken skin. Comparison among production plant approval codes showed significant differences of the percentages of chicken samples with more than 1000 cfu per g, ranging from 0% to 28.1%. The percentage of samples with more than 1000 cfu of Campylobacter spp. per g was significantly higher in the period May, June and July than in the period November to April. The percentage of highly contaminated samples was significantly higher for samples taken from larger compared to smaller chickens. There was no statistical difference in the percentage of highly contaminated samples between those obtained from chicken reared with access to range (for example, free-range and organic birds) and those reared under standard regime (for example, no access to range) but the small sample size for organic and to a lesser extent free-range chickens, may have limited the ability to detect important differences should they exist. Campylobacter species was determined for isolates from 93.4% of the positive samples. C. jejuni was isolated from the majority (72.6%) of samples while C. coli was identified in 22.1% of samples. A combination of both species was found in 5.3% of samples. C. coli was more frequently isolated from samples obtained from chicken reared with access to range in comparison to those reared as standard birds. C. jejuni was less prevalent during the summer months of June, July and August compared to the remaining months of the year. Resistance to ciprofloxacin (fluoroquinolone), erythromycin (macrolide), tetracycline, (tetracyclines), gentamicin and streptomycin (aminoglycosides) was predicted from WGS data by the detection of known antimicrobial resistance determinants. Resistance to ciprofloxacin was detected in 185 (51.7%) isolates of C. jejuni and 49 (42.1%) isolates of C. coli; while 220 (61.1%) isolates of C. jejuni and 73 (62.9%) isolates of C. coli isolates were resistant to tetracycline. Three C. coli (2.6%) but none of the C. jejuni isolates harboured 23S mutations predicting reduced susceptibility to erythromycin. Multidrug resistance (MDR), defined as harbouring genetic determinants for resistance to at least three unrelated antimicrobial classes, was found in 10 (8.6%) C. coli isolates but not in any C. jejuni isolates. Co-resistance to ciprofloxacin and erythromycin was predicted in 1.7% of C. coli isolates. 9 Overall, the percentages of isolates with genetic AMR determinants found in this study were similar to those reported in the previous survey year (August 2016 to July 2017) where testing was based on phenotypic break-point testing. Multi-drug resistance was similar to that found in the previous survey years. It is recommended that trends in AMR in Campylobacter spp. isolates from retail chickens continue to be monitored to realise any increasing resistance of concern, particulary to erythromycin (macrolide). Considering that the percentage of fresh, whole chicken from non-major retailer stores in the UK that are highly contaminated (at more than 1000 cfu per g) with Campylobacter spp. continues to be above that in samples from major retailers more action including consideration of interventions such as improved biosecurity and slaughterhouse measures is needed to achieve better control of Campylobacter spp. for this section of the industry. The FSA has indicated that the retail proxy target for the percentage of highly contaminated retail chickens should be less than 7% and while continued monitoring has demonstrated a sustained decline for chickens from major retailer stores, chicken on sale in other stores have yet to meet this target.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.