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Adger, William Neil. „Social vulnerability to climate change in Vietnam“. Thesis, University of East Anglia, 1998. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.389394.
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2
Nunes, João Pedro Carvalho. „Vulnerability of mediterranean watersheds to climate change“. Doctoral thesis, FCT - UNL, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/1371.
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Desertification is a critical issue for Mediterranean drylands. Climate change is expected to
aggravate its extension and severity by reinforcing the biophysical driving forces behind
desertification processes: hydrology, vegetation cover and soil erosion. The main objective of
this thesis is to assess the vulnerability of Mediterranean watersheds to climate change, by
estimating impacts on desertification drivers and the watersheds’ resilience to them.
To achieve this objective, a modeling framework capable of analyzing the processes linking
climate and the main drivers is developed. The framework couples different models adapted
to different spatial and temporal scales. A new model for the event scale is developed, the
MEFIDIS model, with a focus on the particular processes governing Mediterranean
watersheds. Model results are compared with desertification thresholds to estimate resilience.
This methodology is applied to two contrasting study areas: the Guadiana and the Tejo, which
currently present a semi-arid and humid climate.
The main conclusions taken from this work can be summarized as follows:
• hydrological processes show a high sensitivity to climate change, leading to a
significant decrease in runoff and an increase in temporal variability;
• vegetation processes appear to be less sensitive, with negative impacts for agricultural
species and forests, and positive impacts for Mediterranean species;
• changes to soil erosion processes appear to depend on the balance between changes to
surface runoff and vegetation cover, itself governed by relationship between changes
to temperature and rainfall;
• as the magnitude of changes to climate increases, desertification thresholds are
surpassed in a sequential way, starting with the watersheds’ ability to sustain current
water demands and followed by the vegetation support capacity;
• the most important thresholds appear to be a temperature increase of +3.5 to +4.5 ºC
and a rainfall decrease of -10 to -20 %;
• rainfall changes beyond this threshold could lead to severe water stress occurring even
if current water uses are moderated, with droughts occurring in 1 out of 4 years;
• temperature changes beyond this threshold could lead to a decrease in agricultural
yield accompanied by an increase in soil erosion for croplands;
• combined changes of temperature and rainfall beyond the thresholds could shift both
systems towards a more arid state, leading to severe water stresses and significant
changes to the support capacity for current agriculture and natural vegetation in both
study areas.Supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology and the European Union under Operational Program “Science and Innovation” (POCI 2010), Ph.D. grant ref. SFRH/BD/5059/2001
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Holsten, Anne. „Climate change vulnerability assessments in the regional context“. Phd thesis, Universität Potsdam, 2013. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2013/6683/.
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Adapting sectors to new conditions under climate change requires an understanding of regional vulnerabilities. Conceptually, vulnerability is defined as a function of sensitivity and exposure, which determine climate impacts, and adaptive capacity of a system. Vulnerability assessments for quantifying these components have become a key tool within the climate change field. However, there is a disagreement on how to make the concept operational in studies from a scientific perspective. This conflict leads to many still unsolved challenges, especially regarding the quantification and aggregation of the components and their suitable level of complexity.
This thesis therefore aims at advancing the scientific foundation of such studies by translating the concept of vulnerability into a systematic assessment structure. This includes all components and implies that for each considered impact (e.g. flash floods) a clear sensitive entity is defined (e.g. settlements) and related to a direction of change for a specific climatic stimulus (e.g. increasing impact due to increasing days with heavy precipitation). Regarding the challenging aggregation procedure, two alternative methods allowing a cross-sectoral overview are introduced and their advantages and disadvantages discussed. This assessment structure is subsequently exemplified for municipalities of the German state North Rhine-Westphalia via an indicator-based deductive approach using information from literature. It can be transferred also to other regions. As for many relevant sectors, suitable indicators to express the vulnerability components are lacking, new quantification methods are developed and applied in this thesis, for example for the forestry and health sector.
A lack of empirical data on relevant thresholds is evident, for example which climatic changes would cause significant impacts. Consequently, the multi-sectoral study could only provide relative measures for each municipality, in relation to the region. To fill this gap, an exemplary sectoral study was carried out on windthrow impacts in forests to provide an absolute quantification of the present and future impact. This is achieved by formulating an empirical relation between the forest characteristics and damage based on data from a past storm event. The resulting measure indicating the sensitivity is then combined with wind conditions.
Multi-sectoral vulnerability assessments require considerable resources, which often hinders the implementation. Thus, in a next step, the potential for reducing the complexity is explored. To predict forest fire occurrence, numerous meteorological indices are available, spanning over a range of complexity. Comparing their performance, the single variable relative humidity outperforms complex indicators for most German states in explaining the monthly fire pattern. This is the case albeit it is itself an input factor in most indices. Thus, this meteorological factor alone is well suited to evaluate forest fire danger in many Germany regions and allows a resource-efficient assessment. Similarly, the complexity of methods is assessed regarding the application of the ecohydrological model SWIM to the German region of Brandenburg. The inter-annual soil moisture levels simulated by this model can only poorly be represented by simpler statistical approach using the same input data. However, on a decadal time horizon, the statistical approach shows a good performance and a strong dominance of the soil characteristic field capacity. This points to a possibility to reduce the input factors for predicting long-term averages, but the results are restricted by a lack of empirical data on soil water for validation.
The presented assessments of vulnerability and its components have shown that they are still a challenging scientific undertaking. Following the applied terminology, many problems arise when implementing it for regional studies. Advances in addressing shortcomings of previous studies have been made by constructing a new systematic structure for characterizing and aggregating vulnerability components. For this, multiple approaches were presented, but they have specific advantages and disadvantages, which should also be carefully considered in future studies. There is a potential to simplify some methods, but more systematic assessments on this are needed. Overall, this thesis strengthened the use of vulnerability assessments as a tool to support adaptation by enhancing their scientific basis.Die Anpassung von Sektoren an veränderte klimatische Bedingungen erfordert ein Verständnis von regionalen Vulnerabilitäten. Vulnerabilität ist als Funktion von Sensitivität und Exposition, welche potentielle Auswirkungen des Klimawandels darstellen, und der Anpassungsfähigkeit von Systemen definiert. Vulnerabilitätsstudien, die diese Komponenten quantifizieren, sind zu einem wichtigen Werkzeug in der Klimawissenschaft geworden. Allerdings besteht von der wissenschaftlichen Perspektive aus gesehen Uneinigkeit darüber, wie diese Definition in Studien umgesetzt werden soll. Ausdiesem Konflikt ergeben sich viele Herausforderungen, vor allem bezüglich der Quantifizierung und Aggregierung der einzelnen Komponenten und deren angemessenen Komplexitätsniveaus. Die vorliegende Dissertation hat daher zum Ziel die Anwendbarkeit des Vulnerabilitätskonzepts voranzubringen, indem es in eine systematische Struktur übersetzt wird. Dies beinhaltet alle Komponenten und schlägt für jede Klimaauswirkung (z.B. Sturzfluten) eine Beschreibung des vulnerablen Systems vor (z.B. Siedlungen), welches direkt mit einer bestimmten Richtung eines relevanten klimatischen Stimulus in Verbindung gebracht wird (z.B. stärkere Auswirkungen bei Zunahme der Starkregentage). Bezüglich der herausfordernden Prozedur der Aggregierung werden zwei alternative Methoden, die einen sektorübergreifenden Überblick ermöglichen, vorgestellt und deren Vor- und Nachteile diskutiert. Anschließend wird die entwickelte Struktur einer Vulnerabilitätsstudie mittels eines indikatorbasierten und deduktiven Ansatzes beispielhaft für Gemeinden in Nordrhein-Westfalen in Deutschland angewandt. Eine Übertragbarkeit auf andere Regionen ist dennoch möglich. Die Quantifizierung für die Gemeinden stützt sich dabei auf Informationen aus der Literatur. Da für viele Sektoren keine geeigneten Indikatoren vorhanden waren, werden in dieser Arbeit neue Indikatoren entwickelt und angewandt, beispielsweise für den Forst- oder Gesundheitssektor. Allerdings stellen fehlende empirische Daten bezüglich relevanter Schwellenwerte eine Lücke dar, beispielsweise welche Stärke von Klimaänderungen eine signifikante Auswirkung hervorruft. Dies führt dazu, dass die Studie nur relative Aussagen zum Grad der Vulnerabilität jeder Gemeinde im Vergleich zum Rest des Bundeslandes machen kann. Um diese Lücke zu füllen, wird für den Forstsektor beispielhaft die heutige und zukünftige Sturmwurfgefahr von Wäldern berechnet. Zu diesem Zweck werden die Eigenschaften der Wälder mit empirischen Schadensdaten eines vergangenen Sturmereignisses in Verbindung gebracht. Der sich daraus ergebende Sensitivitätswert wird anschließend mit den Windverhältnissen verknüpft. Sektorübergreifende Vulnerabilitätsstudien erfordern beträchtliche Ressourcen, was oft deren Anwendbarkeit erschwert. In einem nächsten Schritt wird daher das Potential einer Vereinfachung der Komplexität anhand zweier sektoraler Beispiele untersucht. Um das Auftreten von Waldbränden vorherzusagen, stehen zahlreiche meteorologische Indices zur Verfügung, welche eine Spannbreite unterschiedlicher Komplexitäten aufweisen. Bezüglich der Anzahl monatlicher Waldbrände weist die relative Luftfeuchtigkeit für die meisten deutschen Bundesländer eine bessere Vorhersagekraft als komplexere Indices auf. Dies ist er Fall, obgleich sie selbst als Eingangsvariable für die komplexeren Indices verwendet wird. Mit Hilfe dieses einzelnen meteorologischen Faktors kann also die Waldbrandgefahr in deutschen Region ausreichend genau ausgedrückt werden, was die Ressourceneffizienz von Studien erhöht. Die Methodenkomplexität wird auf ähnliche Weise hinsichtlich der Anwendung des ökohydrologischen Modells SWIM für die Region Brandenburg untersucht. Die interannuellen Bodenwasserwerte, welche durch dieses Modell simuliert werden, können nur unzureichend durch ein einfacheres statistisches Modell, welches auf denselben Eingangsdaten aufbaut, abgebildet werden. Innerhalb eines Zeithorizonts von Jahrzehnten, kann der statistische Ansatz jedoch das Bodenwasser zufriedenstellend abbilden und zeigt eine Dominanz der Bodeneigenschaft Feldkapazität. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass die Komplexität im Hinblick auf die Anzahl der Eingangsvariablen für langfristige Berechnungen reduziert werden kann. Allerdings sind die Aussagen durch fehlende beobachtete Bodenwasserwerte zur Validierung beschränkt. Die vorliegenden Studien zur Vulnerabilität und ihren Komponenten haben gezeigt, dass eine Anwendung noch immer wissenschaftlich herausfordernd ist. Folgt man der hier verwendeten Vulnerabilitätsdefinition, treten zahlreiche Probleme bei der Implementierung in regionalen Studien auf. Mit dieser Dissertation wurden Fortschritte bezüglich der aufgezeigten Lücken bisheriger Studien erzielt, indem eine systematische Struktur für die Beschreibung und Aggregierung von Vulnerabilitätskomponenten erarbeitet wurde. Hierfür wurden mehrere Ansätze diskutiert, die jedoch Vor- und Nachteile besitzen. Diese sollten vor der Anwendung von zukünftigen Studien daher ebenfalls sorgfältig abgewogen werden. Darüber hinaus hat sich gezeigt, dass ein Potential besteht einige Ansätze zu vereinfachen, jedoch sind hierfür weitere Untersuchungen nötig. Insgesamt konnte die Dissertation die Anwendung von Vulnerabilitätsstudien als Werkzeug zur Unterstützung von Anpassungsmaßnahmen stärken.
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Wiréhn, Lotten. „Climate vulnerability assessment methodology : Agriculture under climate change in the Nordic region“. Doctoral thesis, Linköpings universitet, Tema Miljöförändring, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-143226.
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Food security and climate change mitigation are crucial missions for the agricultural sector and for global work on sustainable development. Concurrently, agricultural production is directly dependent on climatic conditions, making climate change adaptation strategies essential for the agricultural sector. There is consequently a need for researchers, planners, and practitioners to better understand how, why, and to what extent agriculture is vulnerable to climate change. Such analyses involve challenges in relation to the complex social– ecological character of the agricultural system and to the multiple conceptualizations and approaches used in analysing vulnerability. The aim of this thesis is to identify how vulnerability assessments can be used to represent climate-related vulnerability in Nordic agriculture, in order to advance the methodological development of indicator-based and geographic visualization methods. The following research questions are addressed: (i) How can agricultural vulnerability to climate change and variability in the Nordic countries be characterized? (ii) How do selections, definitions, and emphases of indicators influence how vulnerability is assessed? (iii) How do estimates of vulnerability vary depending on the methods used in assessments? (iv) How can geographic visualization be applied in integrated vulnerability assessments? This thesis analyses and applies various vulnerability assessment approaches in the context of Nordic agriculture. This thesis demonstrates that various methods for composing vulnerability indices result in significantly different outcomes, despite using the same set of indicators. A conceptual framework for geographic visualization approaches to vulnerability assessments was developed for the purpose of creating transparent and interactive assessments regarding the indicating variables, methods and assumptions applied, i.e., opening up the ‘black box’ of composite indices. This framework served as the foundation for developing the AgroExplore geographic visualization tool. The tool enables the user to interactively select, categorize, and weight indicators as well as to explore the data and the spatial patterns of the indicators and indices. AgroExplore was used in focus group settings with experts in the Swedish agricultural sector. The visualization-supported dialogue results confirm the difficulty of selecting and constructing indicators, including different perceptions of what indicators actually indicate, the assumption of linear relationships between the indicators and vulnerability, and, consequently, that the direction of the relationship is predefined for each indicator. This thesis further points at the inherent complexity of agricultural challenges and opportunities in the context of climate change as such. It is specifically emphasized that agricultural adaptation policies and measures involve trade-offs between various environmental and socio–economic objectives, and that their implementation could furthermore entail unintended consequences, i.e., potential maladaptive outcomes. Nevertheless, it proved difficult to validate indicators due to, e.g. matters of scale and data availability. While heavy precipitation and other extreme weather events are perceived as the most relevant drivers of climate vulnerability by the agricultural experts participating in this study, statistical analyses of historical data identified few significant relationships between crop yield losses and heavy precipitation. In conclusion, this thesis contributes to the method development of composite indices and indicator-based vulnerability assessment. A key conclusion is that assessments are method dependent and that indicator selection is related to aspects such as the system’s spatial scale and location as well as to indicator thresholds and defined relationships with vulnerability, recognizing the contextual dependency of agricultural vulnerability. Consequently, given the practicality of indicator-based methods, I stress with this thesis that future vulnerability studies must take into account and be transparent about the principles and limitations of indicator-based assessment methods in order to ensure their usefulness, validity, and relevance for guiding adaptation strategies.För jordbrukssektorn och global hållbar utveckling i stort är matsäkerhet och mitigering av klimatförändringar viktiga angelägenheter. Samtidigt är jordbruksproduktionen ofta direkt beroende av klimatförhållanden, vilket gör klimatanpassningsstrategier mycket centrala för sektorn. Forskare, planerare och aktörer behöver förstå hur, varför och i vilken omfattning jordbruket är sårbart inför klimatförändringar. Sådana analyser inbegriper även de utmaningar som skapas genom jordbrukets komplexa socio-ekologiska karaktär, och de många utgångspunkter och tillvägagångssätt som används för att bedöma sårbarhet. Syftet med denna avhandling är att identifiera hur sårbarhetsbedömningar kan representera klimatrelaterad sårbarhet i nordiskt jordbruk, och i och med detta har avhandlingen som avsikt att utveckla metodologin för indikatorbaserade- och geografiska visualiseringsmetoder. Följande forskningsfrågor avhandlas: (i) Hur kan det nordiska jordbrukets sårbarhet inför klimatvariation och förändringar karaktäriseras? (ii) Hur påverkar urval, definitioner och betoningar av indikatorer bedömningar av sårbarhet? (iii) Hur varierar uppskattningar med bedömningsmetod? (iv) Hur kan geografisk visualisering användas i integrerade såbarhetsbedömningar? För att svara på dessa frågor analyseras och tillämpas olika tillvägagångssätt att bedöma sårbarhet inom nordiskt jordbruk. Avhandlingen visar att olika metoder för sårbarhetskompositindex resulterar i signifikanta skillnader mellan index, trots att samma indikatorer och data används. Ett konceptuellt ramverk för sårberhetsbedömningar där geografisk visualisering används, har utvecklats för att möjliggöra transparens avseende till exempel. vilka variabler, metoder och antaganden som används i kompositindex. Detta ramverk har följaktligen legat till grund för att utveckla ett geografiskt visualiseringsverktyg – AgroExplore. Verktyget möjliggör interaktivitet där användaren kan välja, kategorisera och vikta indikatorer, och dessutom utforska data och spatiala mönster av indikatorer och kompositindex. AgroExplore användes i denna avhandling för att stödja fokusgruppdialoger med experter inom den svenska jordbrukssektorn. Resultaten från dessa workshops bekräftar svårigheten med att välja och skapa indikatorer. Dessa svårigheter innefattar olika uppfattningar om vad indikatorer representerar, antagandet om linjära samband mellan indikatorerna och sårbarhet, och följaktligen att sambandens riktning är fördefinierade för respektive indikator. Utöver de konceptuella och metodologiska utmaningarna med sårbarhetsbedömningar visar avhandlingen på komplexa svårigheter och möjligheter för jordbruket vid klimatförändringar. Särskilt framhålls att klimatanpassningspolitik och åtgärder inom jordbruket medför konflikter och avvägningar mellan olika miljö- och socio-ekonomiska mål. Implementering av sådana anpassningsåtgärder kan vidare innebära oönskade konsekvenser, så kallad missanpassning. Trots ökad kunskap gällande nordiska jordbrukets sårbarhet inför klimatförändringar har det visats sig vara svårt att statistiskt validera indikatorer på grund av, exempelvis, skalproblematik och datatillgänglighet. Samtidigt som experterna ansåg att kraftig nederbörd och andra extrema väderhändelser är de mest relevanta drivkrafterna till klimatsårbarhet visar den statistiska analysen av historiska data på få signifikanta samband mellan förlorad skördeavkastning och kraftig nederbörd. Denna avhandling bidrar till metodutveckling av kompositindex och indikatorbaserade metoder för sårbarhetsbedömningar. En viktig slutsats är att bedömningar är metodberoende och att valet av indikatorer är relaterat till aspekter såsom systemets utbredning och den spatiala skalan av bedömningen. Även indikatorernas tröskelvärden och hur deras relation till sårbarhet är definierade anses vara viktiga faktorer som påverkar hur indikatorer representerar sårbarhet, vilket visar på sårbarhetsbedömningars kontextuella beroende. I och med de rådande bristerna hos indikatorbaserade metoder, som bland annat har identifierats i denna avhandling, vill jag framhålla vikten av att sårbarhetsbedömningar bör vara transparanta gällande den tillämpade metodens principer, antaganden och begräsningar. Detta för att säkerställa användbarhet, giltighet och relevans, om metoden och bedömningen ska ligga till grund för anpassningsstrategier hos såväl politiker, planerare och lantbrukare.
This is deliverable of the Nordic Centre of Excellence for Strategic Adaptation Research (NORD-STAR), funded by the Nordic Top-level Research Initiative Sub-programme ‘Effects Studies and Adaptation to Climate Change’.
The work has also been supported by the Swedish Research Council FORMAS under Grant No. 2013-1557 ‘Identifying thresholds for maladaptation in Nordic agriculture’
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Begum, UKM Shawkat ARA. „MODERNIZATION, VULNERABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHWEST BANGLADESH“. Diss., The University of Arizona, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/205178.
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The southwest coastal region of Bangladesh bears the mark of modernization, beginning with a high engineering water resource management, agricultural intensification and consequent integration into the global export market. The four-decade process of modernization has altered the coastal hydrology, rearticulated the patterns of social and ecological relationships and transformed resource access and management mechanism. The modernization of water management installed embankments, sluice gates, and polders and regulated the natural flow of saline and freshwater in the complex coastal system. In the early stage of this dimension of modernization, coastal communities became benefited in producing high yielding variety (HYV) rice. However, in the long run technical management of a complex hydrologic system caused prolong water-logging and caused a water disaster in many of the controlled coastal regions.The second dimension of modernization was accomplished through the process of trade liberalization and intensification of agricultural system. In the 1980s, the Government of Bangladesh launched a reformulation of land and financial policies to stimulate the growth of an export oriented shrimp industry, including prawn. The intensification of agriculture, as expressed in the mode of intensive prawn farming improved the economic condition of the farmers. However, the capital intensive prawn farming transformed local institutions and made the farmers vulnerable to external stresses as they become connected to global market system. Market price fluctuation, trade barrier and poor institutional support are increasing vulnerability among the farmers.Nonetheless, prawn farming that significantly depends on natural system has become challenging to the recent climate variability. An analysis of farmers' perception and different environmental data shows that changes in precipitation, temperature, salinity and other extreme climatic events have increased uncertainty to the future of prawn farming. The cumulative impact from a social (market) and environmental (climate change) have seriously undermined the farmers' effort of producing prawn for global market. Based on the findings elicited in the study it is recommended that there is an immediate need for prawn farming adaptation strategy.
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Forster, Johanna. „Vulnerability of tourism-dependent Caribbean islands to climate change“. Thesis, University of East Anglia, 2010. https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/19103/.
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Mcdougall, Amy. „Sense in sensitivity : assessing species vulnerability to climate change“. Thesis, University of East Anglia, 2013. https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/53455/.
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This thesis investigates the impact of future climate change upon species vulnerability. Reports of shifts in species distributions are already numerous, but the pattern of change is not fully understood. This thesis looks to predict which species are likely to be most at risk under climate change and why? This thesis takes the equation; Vulnerability= Sensitivity + Exposure to better discover which species are most vulnerable to climate change. Additionally, this research explores how mitigation has a role in determining the degree to which species are vulnerable in the future. Determining a specie’s vulnerability to climate change required the creation of values representing each side of the equation, both a measure of sensitivity and exposure. The construction of a sensitivity measure required the creation of a life history and ecological traits database, and required the use of multiple methods of statistical analysis. Exposure was calculated using projections of future suitable climate space created using species distribution model Maxent. To explore the impact of mitigation on species vulnerability exposure was calculated under a range of climate change scenarios. The sensitivity and exposure scores are synthesised into a measure of vulnerability. The result of the equation, Vulnerability= Exposure + Sensitivity, has revealed which Mammal species are most vulnerable; those which will be exposed to a high degree of climate change and which life history and ecological traits make them sensitive. The most vulnerable species are those which are highly exposed and which have ‘slow’ life history traits, are range restricted, or, are climate specialist. The regions in which species are identified as most vulnerable include the Neotropical and Afrotropical zones. Mitigation is found to reduce potential vulnerability with early mitigation being the most beneficial. The deeper understanding gained through this research will help us prioritise species for conservation based on their vulnerability.
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Eisenhauer, Emily. „Socio-ecological Vulnerability to Climate Change in South Florida“. FIU Digital Commons, 2014. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/1269.
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Awareness of extreme high tide flooding in coastal communities has been increasing in recent years, reflecting growing concern over accelerated sea level rise. As a low-lying, urban coastal community with high value real estate, Miami often tops the rankings of cities worldwide in terms of vulnerability to sea level rise. Understanding perceptions of these changes and how communities are dealing with the impacts reveals much about vulnerability to climate change and the challenges of adaptation.
This empirical study uses an innovative mixed-methods approach that combines ethnographic observations of high tide flooding, qualitative interviews and analysis of tidal data to reveal coping strategies used by residents and businesses as well as perceptions of sea level rise and climate change, and to assess the relationship between measurable sea levels and perceptions of flooding. I conduct a case study of Miami Beach’s storm water master planning process which included sea level rise projections, one of the first in the nation to do so, that reveals the different and sometimes competing logics of planners, public officials, activists, residents and business interests with regards to climate change adaptation. By taking a deeply contextual account of hazards and adaptation efforts in a local area I demonstrate how this approach can be effective at shedding light on some of the challenges posed by anthropogenic climate change and accelerated rates of sea level rise.
The findings highlight challenges for infrastructure planning in low-lying, urban coastal areas, and for individual risk assessment in the context of rapidly evolving discourse about the threat of sea level rise. Recognition of the trade-offs and limits of incremental adaptation strategies point to transformative approaches, at the same time highlighting equity concerns in adaptation governance and planning. This new impact assessment method contributes to the integration of social and physical science approaches to climate change, resulting in improved understanding of socio-ecological vulnerability to environmental change.
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Mendoza, Ponce Alma Virgen. „Vulnerability of biodiversity to land use change and climate change in Mexico“. Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/21701.
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Biodiversity in Mexico is threatened by Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) and Climate Change (CC). Identifying what sites will be most vulnerable to these threats can help to prioritise conservation, mitigation and adaptation strategies and target limited resources. Therefore, the aims of this study are 1) to identify the most vulnerable sites to LUCCs under different socio-economic and CC scenarios, and 2) to assess the vulnerability of endemic and threatened vertebrate species to establish prioritization strategies for biodiversity conservation. Spatially explicit socio-economic scenarios were created at national and subnational level (Chapter 3). National LUCC models were then developed using the DINAMICA EGO software (Chapter 4). These models were run for three future time slices (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) and two contrasting future climate and socio-economic scenarios to determine biodiversity vulnerability (Chapter 5). Vulnerability was estimated by quantifying the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to LUCC and CC. This framework integrates national information about the priority sites of biodiversity conservation and their future extent of natural covers under future socio-economic and climate conditions. Finally, the vulnerability framework was also applied in a regional case-study in three municipalities of southern Mexico (Chapter 6). Results reveal that temperate forest is the most vulnerable ecosystem type in Mexico, followed by natural grasslands and tropical evergreen forests. Agriculture is the driver of this threat, which is projected to expand to feed an increasing population under dryer climatic conditions. More than 40% of endemic and endangered mammals are in places ranking from medium to extremely high vulnerability, followed by the 28% of the amphibians, 25% and 23% for reptiles and birds, respectively. These vertebrates are principally distributed on temperate forests and tropical dry forests. In the regional scale, rain-fed agriculture (RfA) and anthropogenic grasslands are the principal LUCC drivers, threatening 31 species of endangered vertebrates. A local strategy for creating corridors between patches close to rivers from the south to the north of one municipality is supported as conservation priority for the regional biodiversity. This research presents a novel approach for prioritising conservation strategies in highly biodiverse countries using readily available data sources, demonstrated at different spatial and temporal scales.
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Striessnig, Erich, Wolfgang Lutz und Anthony Patt. „Effects of Educational Attainment on Climate Risk Vulnerability“. The Resilience Alliance, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-05252-180116.
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In the context of still uncertain specific effects of climate change in specific locations, this paper examines whether education significantly increases coping capacity with regard to particular climatic changes, and whether it improves the resilience of people to climate risks in general. Our hypothesis is that investment in universal primary and secondary education around the world is the most effective strategy for preparing to cope with the still uncertain dangers associated with future climate. The empirical evidence presented for a cross-country time series of factors associated with past natural disaster fatalities since 1980 in 125 countries confirms this overriding importance of education in reducing impacts. We also present new projections of populations by age, sex, and level of educational attainment to 2050, thus providing an appropriate tool for anticipating societies' future adaptive capacities based on alternative education scenarios associated with different policies. (authors' abstract)
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Vincent, Katharine. „Gendered vulnerability to climate change in Limpopo province, South Africa“. Thesis, University of East Anglia, 2007. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.439905.
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Lickley, Megan Jeramaz. „The vulnerability of U.S. coastal energy infrastructure under climate change“. Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/78496.
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Thesis (S.M. in Technology and Policy)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2012.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 75-77).
The 2005 hurricane season was particularly damaging to the United States, contributing to significant losses to energy infrastructure -much of it a result of flooding from storm surges during hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Previous research suggests that these events are not isolated, but rather foreshadow a risk that is to continue and likely increase with a changing climate (17). Since extensive energy infrastructure exists along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts, these facilities are exposed to an increasing risk of flooding. We study the combined impacts of anticipated sea level rise, hurricane activity, and subsidence on energy infrastructure in these regions with a first application to Galveston Bay. Using future climate conditions as projected by four different Global Circulation Models (GCMs), we model the change in hurricane activity from present day climate conditions in response to a climate projected in 2100 under the IPCC A l B emissions scenario using hurricane analysis developed by Emanuel (5). We apply the results from hurricane runs from each model to the SLOSH model (Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) (19) to investigate the change in frequency and distribution of surge heights across climates. Further, we incorporate uncertainty surrounding the magnitude of sea level rise and subsidence, resulting in more detailed projections of risk levels for energy infrastructure over the next century. With a detailed understanding of energy facilities' changing risk exposure, we conclude with a dynamic programming cost-benefit analysis to optimize decision making over time as it pertains to adaptation.
by Megan Jeramaz Lickley.
S.M.in Technology and Policy
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Rafael, Sandra Isabel Moreira. „Urban air quality and climate change: vulnerability, resilience and adaptation“. Doctoral thesis, Universidade de Aveiro, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10773/23029.
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Doutoramento em Ciências e Engenharia do AmbienteAs cidades, áreas que albergam cerca de 70% da população europeia, enfrentam hoje um conjunto de desafios associados a alterações do metabolismo urbano, que num contexto de alteração climática (AC), afectam o microclima urbano e a qualidade do ar (QA). Compreender a interação entre as AC, qualidade do ar e fluxos urbanos de calor (FUC) é um tópico de investigação emergente, reconhecido como área de interesse para a definição e implementação de políticas locais. O principal objetivo do presente trabalho é promover uma avaliação integrada das interações entre medidas de resiliência urbana e as AC, e respectiva influência no microclima urbano, QA e FUC, tendo como caso de estudo a cidade do Porto (Portugal). Pretende-se ainda impulsionar o desempenho dos modelos numéricos para que estes representem realisticamente os fenómenos físicos que ocorrem nas áreas urbanas. Para atingir este objetivo, o sistema de modelos WRF-SUEWS foi aplicado para a área de estudo para avaliar a influência de diferentes níveis de área urbanizada nas trocas de calor entre a superficie e a atmosfera. O modelo foi validado mediante a comparação dos seus resultados com dados medidos obtidos em campanhas de monitorização de fluxos. A influência das variáveis meteorológicas nos FUC, e a forma como estas, por sua vez, são influenciadas pela superfície urbana foi também avaliada. Para tal, o sistema WRF-SUEWS foi aplicado para 1-ano representativo de um período de clima presente (1986-2005) e de clima futuro de médio prazo (2046-2065). O cenário climático futuro foi projetado tendo por base o cenário RCP8.5. Esta análise permitiu quantificar e mapear os efeitos das AC nos FUC na cidade do Porto. Face à necessidade corrente de aumentar a resiliência urbana a futuros eventos meteorológicos extremos (e.g. ondas de calor), o sistema WRF-SUEWS foi ainda aplicado (com uma resolução espacial de 200 m) para avaliar a influência de medidas de resiliência nos FUC. Conhecendo a importância da morfologia urbana para as características do seu próprio clima, um conjunto de parameterizações urbanas (LSM, SUEWS e UCM) foram analisados para área de estudo, por forma a obter uma representação realista das características urbanas no modelo WRF e, consequentemente, obter um melhor desempenho na modelação da QA à escala local. Os resultados revelaram que o modelo UCM é a parameterização urbana que melhor representa os fluxos turbulentos de calor, a temperatura e velocidade do vento à superfície. Como resultado, o modelo CFD VADIS, inicializado pelo modelo WRF-UCM, foi aplicado com uma elevada resolução espacial (3 m) a um bairro típico da cidade do Porto. As simulações realizadas permitiram caracterizar o estado atual da QA na área de estudo, bem como avaliar a influência de diferentes medidas de resiliência nos padrões de velocidade do vento e na concentração de poluentes atmosféricos (PM10, NOX, CO e CO2). Este trabalho constitui uma ferramenta científica inovadora no que diz respeito ao conhecimento dos processos físicos que ocorrem à escala urbana, proporcionando uma visão integradora entre AC, QA e FUC. Estes resultados são relevantes para o apoio à decisão política do que respeita à implementação de estratégias que permitam aumentar a resiliência urbana, nas suas diversas vertentes, a um clima em mudança
Cities, home of about 70% of the European population, are facing important challenges related to changes in urban structure and its metabolism, and to pressures induced by climate change (CC) effects, which are affecting urban microclimate and air quality. The better understanding of the interactions between CC, air quality and urban surface energy balance (USEB) is an emerging priority for research and policy. The main objective of the current study is to provide an integrated assessment of the interaction between resilience measures and CC effects, and its influence on the urban microclimate and air quality as well as on the USEB, having as case study the city of Porto (Portugal). The ultimate goal is to improve the accuracy of numerical modelling to better represent the physical processes occurring in urban areas. For this purpose, the relevant parameters to both USEB and air quality were analysed. The WRF-SUEWS modelling setup was applied to the study area to assess the influence of different levels of urbanization on the surface-atmosphere exchanges. To validate the modelling setup, the results were compared with measurements carried out on field campaigns. The way of how the meteorological variables affect the USEB and how, in turn, these variables are themselves affected by urban surface was also assessed. The modelling setup was applied for 1-year period statistically representative of a present (1986-2005) and medium-term future (2046-2065) climate. The climate projection was produced under the RCP8.5 scenario. This analysis gives insights of how the urban-surface exchanges will be affected by CC, allowing the mapping of the FUC over the study area. As result of the need of increase cities resilience to future extreme weather events (e.g. heat waves), the WRF-SUEWS model (with a spatial resolution of 200 m), was applied to Porto city to evaluate the influence of a set of resilience measures on the USEB. Knowing the importance of urban surfaces to its own microclimate, a set of urban parameterization schemes (LSM, SUEWS and UCM) were analysed for the study area, to achieve a more accurate representation of urban features in the WRF model and, in consequence, to improve the capability of air quality modelling at urban/local scale. The results point out that the UCM is the urban parameterization that provides a more realistic representation of the turbulent energy fluxes and the near-surface air temperatures and wind speed. As result, a CFD modelling (VADIS), forced by WRF-UCM, was used to provide a set of numerical simulations with a high spatial resolution (3 m) over a typical neighbourhood in the Porto city. These simulations allow the characterization of the current air quality status over the study area, as well as the assessment of the influence of different resilience measures in the wind flow and air pollutants dispersion (PM10, NOX, CO and CO2). Overall, this research work is a step forward in understanding the physics of urban environments, providing also a linkage between CC, air quality and USEB. These findings are highly advantageous to support policy makers and stakeholders helping them to choose the best strategies to mitigate extreme weather events and air pollution episodes and so increase cities resilience to a future climate.
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Haughton, Pippa. „Women’s climate change advocacy in Kiribati: vulnerability, agency and storytelling“. Thesis, Malmö universitet, Fakulteten för kultur och samhälle (KS), 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-22287.
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Climate change has hit the Pacific Island nation of Kiribati hard over the past decade, with unreliable weather patterns, drought, flooding and king tides all affecting the homes, health and livelihoods of residents. As the effects of climate change increase, women are rising up as advocates, fighting for action on mitigation and adaptation strategies locally and internationally. Through in-depth interviews with five I-Kiribati women, this study explores the strategies and impacts of their climate change advocacy. It addresses the questions: ‘How are I-Kiribati women advocating for climate action?’, and ‘What impact do the I-Kiribati women mobilized for climate action hope their voices and stories will have locally and transnationally?’.The qualitative study draws on feminist theory and discourses on vulnerability and women in development, with a view to breaking away from the rhetoric of women as ‘victims’ and focusing on women’s agency in climate change advocacy. It explores the nuances of gender and climate change in Kiribati and the effects of shifting gender roles in local communities. Findings highlight the role of narratives and storytelling in Kiribati and internationally to translate science-based arguments into easily understandable messages for the public.
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Trigoso, Rubio Erika Nora. „Spatial characterization of vulnerability to climate change impacts in Puno, Peru“. Thesis, University of Oxford, 2011. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.550586.
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Understanding vulnerability has become one of the most important themes of research into climate change. In many developing countries, where the ability to influence global greenhouse gas emissions to reduce the risks of climate change is small, vulnerability is the main risk factor that can be controlled at national and local levels. The IPCC states that there is a clear need for more research at the regional and local level that could serve to understand vulnerability in terms of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to climate change so that policies can be formulated to reduce the impacts of a changing climate. One approach to the understanding and study of vulnerability to environmental change is to map and analyze it with the aid of geographic information systems (GI8), remote sensing and spatial statistical techniques. These techniques can be used to understand the various components of vulnerability and the manner in which they vary across space and time. This study undertakes a spatial assessment of vulnerability in the Department of Puno, located in the southern Andes of Peru. Puno has a long history of dealing with different types of meteorological event impacts including drought, frosts and floods, as well as decadal climate variability associated with El Nifio. Puno also faces new risks such as the disappearance of Andean snowpack and glaciers. It is a clear example of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) characterization of Latin America in which they conclude that adaptive capacity of human systems is low (especially to extreme events), vulnerability is high and meteorological event impacts are likely to become more frequent as a result of climate change. The main research questions include exploring how vulnerability to climate change is understood, analyzing how geospatial statistics are used to examine vulnerability and understanding what the drivers of vulnerability in the study area are.
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Komba, Coretha. „The economics of climate change vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation in Tanzania“. Doctoral thesis, University of Cape Town, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/12867.
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Includes bibliographical references.In Sub-Saharan Africa, climate change is set to hit the agricultural sector the most severely and cause suffering particularly for smallholder farmers. To cushion themselves against potential welfare losses, smallholder farmers need to recognize the changes already taking place in their climate and undertake appropriate investments in adaptation. This study investigates whether these smallholder farmers in Tanzania recognize climate change and, consequently, adapt to it in their agricultural activities. The study also investigates the factors influencing their choice of adaptation methods. In order to achieve this, the study analysed data from 534 randomly selected households in a sample of districts representing the six of the seven agro-ecological regions of the country. The data shows that Tanzanian smallholder farmers have observed changes in mean and variance precipitation and temperature and responded to it. The farmers have generally used short-season crops, drought-resistant crops, irrigation, changing planting dates and tree planting to adapt to the negative impacts of climate change on their agricultural yields. In this study, selection bias is corrected using a Heckman sample selection model. A binary probit model is used as a selection equation to investigate the factors influencing a farmer’s decision to undertake any adaptation at all to climate change while a multinomial probit model is used as an outcome equation to investigate the factors influencing farmers’ choice of specific adaptation methods. The inverse Mill’s ratio reported selection bias in choosing three of the adaptation methods. The findings of the study suggest that the Tanzanian government needs to assist smallholder farmers overcome the constraints they face in their attempts to adapt. The government can play a significant role by promoting adaptation methods appropriate for particular circumstances e.g. particular crops for different agro-ecological zones.
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Wherry, Susan Amelia. „Climate Change Effects and Water Vulnerability in the Molalla Pudding River Basin, Oregon, USA“. Portland State University, 2013.
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Vicenza, Sarah Dalla, und University of Lethbridge Faculty of Arts and Science. „Forest vulnerability to fire in the northern Rocky Mountains under climate change“. Thesis, Lethbridge, Alta. : University of Lethbridge, Dept. of Geography, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10133/3422.
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Forest fires are an increasing concern under climate change. Substantially increased fire vulnerability could become a reality for many areas, including the Rocky Mountains. Forest fire hazard was examined in the upper North Saskatchewan and St. Mary watersheds for the period of 1960 to 2100. Ensemble climate scenarios were chosen to represent a wide range of possible future climates. The GENGRID meteorological model and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather index System were combined to assess possible changes in forest fire hazard in the Rocky Mountains. A wind model was developed to estimate daily wind speed variation with elevation. It was found that under most climate scenarios, fire hazard is predicted to increase. If future temperatures are warm, as expected, it could offset future precipitation increases, resulting in greater severity of fire weather and an in increase the number of days per year with high fire hazard.xiii, 130 leaves ; 29 cm
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Griffiths, Chevon. „Climate change and coastal vulnerability: application of vulnerability assessment methodologies in two coastal communities in South Africa“. Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/22970.
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Climate and environmental change is a phenomenon which is having a significant effect on human-ecological systems around the world. It is predicted to have a detrimental impact on certain groups and populations; among those most at risk are those who have the highest exposure and sensitivity to the climate and environmental changes and the lowest adaptive capacity. This includes coastal fishing communities and therefore necessitates action at a variety of scales in order to build the resilience of these individuals and groups to the predicted changes and their potential impacts. Vulnerability assessments (VAs) have been identified as an effective way to discover who is most vulnerable and to what threats or hazards. This is valuable as assistance can then be provided to the individuals, groups, regions or countries identified as most vulnerable. VAs can be conducted at a variety of scales and can be either quantitative or qualitative. This research project focused on vulnerability assessments conducted at the local level. These community-scale assessments are important as they are able to elicit finer-scale details, identify the greatest hazards and stressors, and conceptualize adaptation strategies that are locally-informed, context specific and targeted towards a specific community. The focus of this research project was to first assess the vulnerability of two coastal communities in South Africa, namely Doringbaai and St Helena Bay, using a suite of mixed methods which included focus group discussions, the review of secondary data, and key informant interviews. Secondly, this project aimed to assess the potential contribution of a 'rapid vulnerability assessment' (RVA) methodology, conducted in the same two coastal fishing communities, to gain information required to identify appropriate adaptation strategies in the context of climate and environmental change. The RVA is conducted as a workshop over a two-day period and may be followed by key informant interviews on the third day, if appropriate and required. This research sought to compare and contrast the information emanating from the RVA workshops with information obtained from the triangulation of mixed methods used in this study with respect to: key threats and stressors faced by the two small-scale fishing communities, identified environmental changes, impacts of these changes on fisher livelihoods, current coping strategies and potential adaptation strategies. Criteria for assessing the performance of the two different approaches were drawn from the literature and systematically documented. The outcome of the assessment showed that the RVA has value as a VA methodology and is able to identify locally relevant, potentially viable adaptation strategies. It is an effective approach for obtaining a good overview of the vulnerabilities of a community and is thus especially useful in under-resourced and data-poor regions. The conclusion was therefore that it is an exceptionally useful tool as a starting point for vulnerability assessments but can be enriched by combining it with other methods such as the review of secondary data, focus group discussions, surveys, questionnaires and key informant interviews. Furthermore, it is recommended that the RVA includes follow-up research and focuses on flexible adaptation strategies.
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Coldrey, Kevin. „Assessing the vulnerability of South Africa's national protected areas to climate change“. Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/29568.
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Protected areas should be reviewed under expected future climate conditions so that conservation and expansion strategies can be developed appropriately. An assessment of the vulnerability of protected areas to climate change is a necessary step in developing such strategies. Indeed, a vulnerability assessment is an important step in developing adaptation strategies for conservation. This is important as substantial climate change has already been experienced at a park level in South Africa. The aim of this study was to develop a method for assessing the relative vulnerability of protected areas to climate change and to apply this to South Africa’s 19 national parks. The method includes identifying and quantifying potential impacts of climate change on each focal protected area, carried out by developing and/or using projections for species, ecosystems, infrastructure, tourism and neighbouring communities. Potential impacts were combined with measures of each park’s adaptive capacity to develop an overall park vulnerability score. This study has taken vulnerability assessment at a protected area level further than has been attempted before by assessing not only the biophysical but also the socioeconomic impacts of climate change on a protected area, quantifying the potential changes (potential impacts) and developing a relative index. The results indicate that climate change has the potential to contribute significantly to the threats faced by South Africa’s national parks. Apart from a potentially devastating impact on species and ecosystems, the effects on tourism demand, community relations and infrastructure are of concern. Not surprisingly, the most vulnerable parks are largely coastal, where tourist infrastructure is at risk of both flooding and sea-level rise, and there are higher population densities. Furthermore, coastal ecosystems are expected to transform significantly which will have consequences for range-restricted species. Management strategies need to take heed of the magnitude of potential impacts identified in this study and work towards developing adaptation pathways.
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Crespo, Cuaresma Jesus, und Wolfgang Lutz. „The demography of human development and climate change vulnerability: A projection exercise“. Verlag der Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, 2015. http://epub.wu.ac.at/5396/1/160_VYPR13_241%2D261.pdf.
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We propose a methodological framework aimed at obtaining projections of the Human Development Index (HDI) that can be used to assess the degree of vulnerability of future societies to extreme climatic events. By combining recent developments in the modeling and projection of population by age, sex, and educational attainment, our modeling set-up ensures that the different components of the HDI are projected using a self-contained, consistent modeling effort. We develop scenarios that correspond to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed in the context of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and thus present a projection framework that can be used to expand the evaluation of the potential mitigation and adaptation challenges associated with climate change in general, and with vulnerability to natural disasters in particular.
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Nti, Frank Kyekyeku. „Climate change vulnerability and coping mechanisms among farming communities in Northern Ghana“. Thesis, Kansas State University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2097/15116.
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Master of ScienceDepartment of Agricultural Economics
Andrew Barkley
This study examines the effect of extreme climatic conditions (drought, flood, and bushfires) on the livelihood of households in the Bawku West district of Ghana. The research identified the mechanisms with which households cope in such situations, and analyzed factors influencing the adoption of coping strategies for flood, coping strategies for drought, and coping strategies for bushfires. Data for the study were collected in selected villages across the district in the aftermath of the 2007/2008 extreme climatic events (a prolonged drought period followed by an erratic rainfall). A binary logit regression (BLR) model was then specified to estimate factors that influence the adoption of a given coping mechanisms. Results from the BLR model indicate that literacy level, membership with an FBO, household income, and location of households had positive and significant impacts on adaptation to drought. Similarly, source of seeds for planting, membership with an FBO, household income, and farm size had positive significant influence on adaptation to flood. Adaption to bushfire was positively influenced by radio ownership, seed source and income. The main effect of these climatic extreme events on households included destruction of crops, livestock and buildings; food and water shortage; poor yield or harvest and limited fields for livestock grazing. Therefore, government policies should be geared towards creating revenue generating channels and in strengthening institutions that provide access to farm credit, readily available improve seeds and extension. Additionally, policies that expedite information dissemination through radio and other public media will enhance households’ adaptive capacity.
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Martin, Taylor. „Urban Vulnerability: Bridging Systems and People-Centred Approaches in Dawei, Tanintharyi Region, Myanmar“. Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/35370.
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This research discusses urban vulnerability to environmental change in Dawei, Myanmar through the analysis of the exposure and sensitivity of urban systems. The scope of this research attempts to encompass the complexity of multi-scalar relationships between the exposure and sensitivity of urban systems and wider supporting ecological systems to climatic and non-climatic shocks and stresses. Moreover, this research aims to bridge systems and people-centred approaches by considering the existing sensitivity of vulnerable populations living in Dawei through the use of two case studies. Specifically, an urban livelihoods approach was used to consider the entitlements, priorities, and capacities of households to cope with shocks and stress given existing challenges. The analysis of findings have been presented according to nested scales, beginning with the macro-level in the consideration of the exposure of urban socio-ecological systems; the meso-level through the analysis of the differential exposure and sensitivity of two communities living in Dawei in light of access to urban infrastructure and services; and lastly, the micro-level through the analysis of household sensitivity through the application of a livelihoods approach.
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Sorey, Gaël. „Climate Change And Vulnerability Impact Assessment Study of the Agricultural Adapatability in Tanzania“. Thesis, Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK), 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-59328.
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Future climate change and variability is one of the top priorities for most countries and regions in the world. Unpredictability and uncertainty regarding future climate is making adaptation forecasts and mitigation of climate change on societies a real challenge for both climate scientists and policy makers. The climate system is not a static entity. On the contrary, changes are part of the mechanism. The impact of human activities, however, has accelerated processes inducing the need for rapid adaptation and mitigation strategies. This thesis focuses on understanding how hydrology and climate influence vulnerability and adaptation of rural Tanzania. This is done by looking at social, climatic and biophysical factors of two villages located in western Tanzania. Analysis of local climate and hydrology factors showed that precipitation and evapotranspiration amounts were about thesame, resulting in small margins for error for successful small scale agriculture. Investigation of various strategies used by farmers as a response to present climate variability are insufficient, and raise concerns about the potential hazard of future climate change. Most of the strategies rely on socio-ecological services from the surrounding environment, and therefore would face dire consequences as a result of future climate change. A wider understanding of successful current adaptation and resilience strategiesand their systematic application would increase the ability of farmers to meet the challenges of future climate volatility.
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Carson, Stephen T. „Planning for climate change an analysis of vulnerability in Suffolk County, New York /“. Diss., Online access via UMI:, 2008.
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Mackenzie, Clara. „Future vulnerability of Modiolus modiolus reefs to climate change : from mechanisms to management“. Thesis, Heriot-Watt University, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10399/3313.
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This project was developed to address management needs for Modiolus modiolus reefs across the UK under the context of climate change. Investigations focused on reef populations at the southern limit of the range and northward over a latitudinal gradient including sites in Wales and the Isle of Man, off the coast of mainland Scotland and around Orkney and Shetland Islands. To improve understanding of species- and population-level vulnerabilities to warming and hypoxia, three key influences were studied: (1) environmental exposure, via collation of data on historical and future site conditions; (2) adaptive capacity, via determination of population genetic structure and connectivity; and (3) acclimatory ability, via investigation of oxidative stress response and energetic demands under climate change conditions. Results suggest that M. modiolus is vulnerable to future warming and hypoxia. However, vulnerability varies according to site conditions, stressor type, and exposure duration, and factors like feed availability and demographics may influence response. Consequently, it is concluded that populations face considerably different levels of climate change threat. Additionally, given moderate to high levels of connectivity between populations, adaptive capacity is likely to be low. Results are discussed collectively and implications for management, including contribution of evidence to management tools, are considered.
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Fatorić, Sandra. „Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Mediterranean Region. Climate out of balance in Aiguamolls de l’Empordà?“ Doctoral thesis, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/133272.
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Aiguamolls de l' Empordà fue la primera área natural protegida creada en la Costa Brava y es la segunda zona de humedales más importante de Cataluña, después del Delta del Ebro. En esta tesis se ha investigado cómo los actores principales perciben y responden al cambio climático. Además se ha realizado un análisis de la variabilidad climática en los últimos cuarenta años en una de las zonas costeras económicamente más dinámicas de España. El enfoque adoptado apoya la necesidad de que el análisis de vulnerabilidad y adaptación deben ser participativos y deben incluir dimensiones sociales, culturales, ambientales, económicas y políticas.
En la tesis se muestra, en primer lugar, que desde principios de 1970, las temperaturas medias del aire y del mar en los Aiguamolls de l'Empordà han seguido una tendencia de calentamiento o incremento. Por otra parte, la precipitación mostró una tendencia creciente no significativa. Mientras que la velocidad promedia anual del viento aumentó en el período de 1990–2012, la frecuencia de las tormentas disminuyó. En cuanto a los caudales de los ríos Fluvià y Muga, se observó una disminución en el período 1971–2011. Recientes datos marinos del nivel local del mar, cerca de los Aiguamolls de l'Empordà mostraron un aumento entre 1990 y 2012. Por otra parte, los resultados de las proyecciones actuales del clima disponibles mostraron que los aumentos en la temperatura del aire continuarán, mientras que la precipitación es probable que disminuya hasta 2050.
Además, en la tesis se ha observado, que la gran mayoría de los principales actores entrevistados creen que el cambio climático ya es un problema muy grave y que la preocupación por este tema es cada vez mayor. La mayoría de ellos dijo que las actividades humanas son una causa importante del cambio climático, especialmente en las últimas décadas. Por otra parte, los entrevistados consideran que el aumento de la temperatura del aire durante las últimas décadas, los cambios en las precipitaciones, el aumento de la severidad de las sequías y la disminución de la biodiversidad y la productividad, así como de los servicios de los ecosistemas, son los efectos más negativos del cambio climático y suponen graves riesgos para el área de estudio. Estas percepciones parecen estar en consonancia con los actuales datos climáticos y los estudios previos. Además, la ubicación de los municipios costeros (i.e. exposición) también los hace directamente vulnerables a la erosión costera, inundaciones, intrusión de agua salada y a la elevación del nivel del mar; factores también destacados por la mayoría de los principales actores. Estos resultados también son coherentes con algunos estudios anteriores, lo que demuestra que los sistemas naturales y socioeconómicos del área de estudio probablemente sean particularmente vulnerables a cuatro efectos del cambio climático: las alteraciones en la magnitud y la frecuencia de la erosión costera; las alteración de la frecuencia y magnitud de la intrusión de agua salada; las alteraciones en la magnitud de la escasez de agua; y cambios en el transporte de los sedimentos del Fluvià.
Por último, más de la mitad de los actores entrevistados consideró que es necesaria la adaptación al cambio climático, pero sólo unos pocos de ellos expresaron un alto nivel de familiaridad con la mitigación. Este resultado puede sugerir que incluso si los costes de la adaptación son altos, más alta seria la pérdida en la economía, los ecosistemas y las propiedades de los Aiguamolls de l'Empordà. Además, se encontró que es más fácil obtener apoyo para la adaptación con medidas naturales que con el uso de medidas artificiales. De hecho, la mitad de los principales actores estaban a favor de las dunas y las barreras de playa. En la tesis también se ha observado que la opción de abandonar el área de estudio (i.e. la emigración a otros lugares) puede ser una opción claramente aceptable por parte de algunos grupos de actores, especialmente por los hombres, residentes de mayor edad y los extranjeros.Aiguamolls de l’Empordà was the first natural protected area to be created in the Costa Brava and is the second most important wetland area in Catalonia, after the Ebro Delta. This thesis researched how key stakeholders experience, perceive and respond to changing climate, together with an analysis of the climate variability in the approximately last forty years in one of the most economically dynamic coastal areas in Spain. My approach supports a position that vulnerability and adaptation analyses should be participatory and should include social, cultural, environmental, economic and political dimensions. This thesis firstly found that since the early 1970s, both average air and sea temperatures in Aiguamolls de l’Empordà have been on a warming trend. Furthermore, precipitation trend showed insignificant increasing trend. While the average annual wind velocity increased in the period 1990–2012, the frequency of storms decreased. Regarding Fluvià and Muga flows, a decrease in the annual average river flows was observed in the period 1971–2011. Recent marine data of the local sea level near Aiguamolls de l’Empordà showed an increase between 1990 and 2012. Furthermore, results of current available climate projections showed that increases in air temperatures will continue, while precipitation are likely to decrease by 2050. This thesis also showed that large majorities of interviewed stakeholders already believe that climate change is a very serious problem and that concern about this issue is growing. Most of them said that human activities are a significant cause of climate change, especially over recent decades. Furthermore, stakeholders considered that the increase in air temperature over the past few decades, precipitation changes, the increase in the severity of droughts, and the decrease in biodiversity and ecosystem productivity and services are the most pressing climate change effects and serious risks to the study area. These perceptions appeared to be in line with present climate data and prior studies. In addition to this, the location of the coastal municipalities (e.g. exposure) also makes them directly vulnerable to coastal erosion, flooding, saltwater intrusion and rises in sea level what was also stressed by majority of stakeholders. This finding is also consistent with some prior studies, which demonstrated that the study area’s natural and socio-economic systems are likely to be particularly vulnerable to four effects of climate change: alterations in the magnitude and frequency of coastal erosion; alterations in the frequency and severity of saltwater intrusion; alterations in the magnitude of water scarcity; and major changes in sediment supply of Fluvià. Finally, over half of the stakeholders found that climate change adaptation is needed, but only a few of them expressed a high level of familiarity with mitigation. This finding may suggest that even if costs of adaptation are high, further losses to the economy, ecosystems and properties in Aiguamolls de l’Empordà might be even higher. Furthermore, it was found that was easier to gain support for natural adaptation measures than for the measures that are artificial. A half of stakeholders that were in favour for adaptation, reported that they would implement natural measures such as setting dunes and beach barriers. From the thesis, it was also noted that the option of abandoning the area (i.e. outmigration) was clearly believed to be acceptable by some stakeholders, especially men, older residents and foreigners.
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Mcdermott, Long Osgur. „An investigation into the vulnerability of UK butterflies to extreme climatic events associated with increasing climate change“. Thesis, University of East Anglia, 2017. https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/67749/.
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Climate change while associated with change a in the mean climate also presents itself as a change in the variance of climate, resulting in an increase in the number of extreme climatic events (ECEs). Increased numbers of hot days, droughts and extreme precipitation events are all predicted under future climate scenarios. To date, there is very little understanding as to the potential effects that this may have on biodiversity. In order to model the future impacts of ECEs on biodiversity and to inform conservationists about the most appropriate mitigation strategies, we need to understand how ECEs have impacted species in the past, which species are sensitive and why? Finally, can factors such as habitat and topography play a role in reducing the impact of ECEs? This thesis aims to advance the knowledge relating to the above questions by examining their impact on UK butterflies, a bioindicator group. This study developed a novel approach to identifying statistically identified, biologically relevant ECEs (heat, cold, precipitation and drought). Research into the impact of ECEs on yearly population change, localised declines and widespread decline events, identified that UK butterflies are particularly vulnerable to extreme heat during the overwintering phase, while tUK butterflies find extreme heat beneficial during their adult phase and finally are negatively impacted upon by precipitation extremes during their adult life stage. Chapter 4 of this thesis found that increasing slope heterogeneity in association with increased habitat diversity buffered butterflies against widespread declines associated with ECEs. Finally, chapter 5 of this thesis found that butterfly families respond differently when accounting for all extremes across all life stages, but that life history traits such as dispersal and number of larval host plants can be used to predict a species sensitivity to various ECEs.
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Chappel, Angela. „Barriers and enablers to the adoption of practices to improve crop production and reduce vulnerability to climate risks in the semi-arid Omusati Region,Namibia“. Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/29455.
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Namibia is almost entirely semi-arid or arid. With evaporation rates being higher than precipitation rates, farming conditions are extremely adverse. This is exacerbated by the impacts of climate change, namely increased temperature, decreased rainfall and higher rainfall variability, all of which are projected to worsen in the future. More than half of the population is reliant on rain-fed subsistence agriculture for their source of food but these challenging conditions mean that there is widespread food insecurity across the subsistence farming community in Namibia. This leads to a state of vulnerability and dependence on government support in the form of social grants, food aid and remittances from family members in urban areas. The locus for this study is three villages: Omaenene, Okathitukeengombe and Oshihau, in the north-central Omusati region of Namibia. This research investigated local perceptions of climate change vulnerability, farming practices used in other regions that could reduce this vulnerability and finally barriers and enablers to the uptake of new farming practices. These objectives were answered through the use of a systematic literature review and interviews with the local community. Findings revealed that the local population is already experiencing a hotter and drier climate, which has decreased their yield output. Many farmers are concerned about future climatic changes while some are comforted by support from the government or God. In both of these cases, the farmers are vulnerable because they are not currently adapting or planning to adapt to climate change. Although a majority of the farmers claimed that they are willing to try new farming practices, they are inhibited by: limited access to new information, mistrust of new farming practices as well as insufficient labour and resources. Three adaptive farming practices – planting pits, bunds and composting – aimed predominantly at water harvesting, soil conservation and increasing soil quality were selected by the researcher, from a systematic literature review, as appropriate for the village sites. Some of the social and institutional enablers that could be enhanced to promote the uptake of these practices are: i) support from local authorities and possibly enlisting the help of religious and traditional leaders (including building trust within these networks), ii) enhancing information access predominantly through the radio, iii) explaining the severity of climate change and the value of adaptation practices, iv) establishing self-help labour groups and v) the creation of demonstrations sites. In the face of irreversible climate change, this research aims to contribute to empowering local people to adapt their farming practices to the harmful experienced and predicted impacts of climate change and climate variability.
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Vilissa, Delfim Julio. „Vulnerability of horticulture producers to climate variability and change : the case of Chókwe District, Mozambique“. Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/20997.
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Climate change is projected to have continued and globally severe environmental, economic and socioeconomic effects. These effects are forecast to be more severe in the agriculture sector, considering that it is one of the most sensitive industries to climate change. Studies from the Mozambican National Institute for Disaster Management (INGC) suggest that Mozambique is among the countries highly vulnerable to climate change due to its geographical location, in the coastal zone. In addition, the majority of its population is entirely dependent on agriculture activities for food and income. For example, in the Chókwe district, tomato production plays a key role in farmers' livelihood; however, this district is prone to weather variability and climate stresses, affecting the region's agricultural performance and making farmers' livelihood even more precarious. There is indeed limited information on this vulnerability, how farmers cope with the risks as well as their need to manage these stresses. The study conducted includes a survey of 43 farmer households in two villages of Chókwe: Massavasse and Muianga. The study then compares farmers' perceived effects of climate variability with actual climate data observed between 1980 and 2012. Meteorological data was analyzed using R software.
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Aponte-Gonzalez, Felix Ivan. „Concerning Caribbean climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation in small island cities“. Thesis, University of Manchester, 2014. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/concerning-caribbean-climate-change-vulnerabilities-and-adaptation-in-small-island-cities(f9bc2ea2-8fc7-4d91-8577-87fa88b8db12).html.
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Climate change poses one of the biggest challenges that most countries have to face over the coming decades. The transformations in our global weather patterns are expected to bring some very adverse effects for most of the island nations that comprise the Caribbean region. These nations have been continuously identified as one of the territorial groups that are most vulnerable to climate change, while the region barely contributes to the main triggers of these changes. Caribbean island nations have many elements that hinder their individual and regional development. Climate change will aggravate those conditions while bringing new challenges to these territories, particularly in the capital cities, as these urban areas serve are the main economic, social, political and cultural centres of these nations. A good understanding of the vulnerabilities of these cities will become a critical factor for developing good adaptation measures for their respective nations. Planning can prove useful for implementing climate change adaptation strategies, particularly for cities. This research provides three main contributions to the literature on climate change and on urban planning studies. First, it expands the discussion upon the linkages between disaster risk reduction experiences and climate change adaptation practices. Second, it highlights the relevance of capital cities for evaluating climate change impacts and adaptation actions for small island territories. The third contribution is the creation of a planning tool to assess climate change vulnerabilities of Caribbean cities. These three elements will further expand the existing knowledge base related to climate change adaptation and urban planning disciplines, particularly pertaining to the Caribbean region. Caribbean cities will greatly benefit from a planning perspective that can guide their development processes in the face of climate impacts. By means of vulnerability assessments it is possible to facilitate the analysis of climate change impacts and outcomes on vulnerable areas and planners can contribute to this aspect. A planning support tool was created to aid in the development of a vulnerability assessment for small island cities in the region - the Caribbean Climate change Urban Vulnerability Index (CCUVI). Using the CCUVI, a vulnerability assessment methodology was developed, using the city of San Juan (Puerto Rico) as a case study. The results of the vulnerability assessment helped identify five different areas within the case study city that are prone to be more affected by climate change impacts. The assessment also analysed how the vulnerability conditions in these areas and in the city changed through time, exploring two distinct scenario storylines for San Juan towards 2050. A series of normative and operational recommendations emerged from the assessment process that will help planners and policymakers engage in adaptation actions to reduce the climate vulnerabilities of Caribbean small island capital cities.
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Winn, Justin P. „Vulnerability and Power| Exploring the Confluence of Politics and Climate Change in Cortez, Florida“. Thesis, University of South Florida, 2019. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10980695.
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This thesis describes how politics shape vulnerability to climate change at the local level, based on an ethnography in Cortez, Florida. Focusing on a “traditional” commercial fishing village on the Florida Gulf Coast, my research indicates that such vulnerabilities are created at multiple scales of the nexus between governance and commerce. Moreover, a key finding is that, as a community closely linked to the health of local environments, the village in Cortez is largely organized to protect their commercial industry from regional economic overdevelopment; not in recognition of its role in contributing to global climate change, but because such overdevelopment is perceived as unjust and destructive to local environments. Further, through qualitatively examining the environmental values of a “traditional” fishing community located in a large metropolitan coastal area, my thesis confronts the responsibility that broader society may have to reevaluate economic growth in effort to truly foster sustainability and justice. Finally, the thesis describes how communities like Cortez may be repositories for locally developed, ecologically grounded resilience strategies, rendering their voice all the more crucial, beyond conventional stakeholder approaches, in public discussions about regional economic development and marine resource management.
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Phung, P. „Climate change adaptation planning under uncertainty in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam : a case study on institutional vulnerability, adaptive capacity and climate change governance“. Thesis, University of Westminster, 2016. https://westminsterresearch.westminster.ac.uk/item/9x1qx/climate-change-adaptation-planning-under-uncertainty-in-ho-chi-minh-city-vietnam-a-case-study-on-institutional-vulnerability-adaptive-capacity-and-climate-change-governance.
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Climate change is expected to have wide-ranging impacts on urban areas and creates additional challenges for sustainable development. Urban areas are inextricably linked with climate change, as they are major contributors to it, while also being particularly vulnerable to its impacts. Climate change presents a new challenge to urban areas, not only because of the expected rises in temperature and sea-level, but also the current context of failure to fully address the institutional barriers preventing action to prepare for climate change, or feedbacks between urban systems and agents. Despite the importance of climate change, there are few cities in developing countries that are attempting to address these issues systematically as part of their governance and planning processes. While there is a growing literature on the risks and vulnerabilities related to climate change, as yet there is limited research on the development of institutional responses, the dissemination of relevant knowledge and evaluation of tools for practical planning responses by decision makers at the city level. This thesis questions the dominant assumptions about the capacity of institutions and potential of adaptive planning. It argues that achieving a balance between climate change impacts and local government decision-making capacity is a vital for successful adaptation to the impacts of climate change. Urban spatial planning and wider environmental planning not only play a major role in reducing/mitigating risks but also have a key role in adapting to uncertainty in over future risk. The research focuses on a single province - the biggest city in Vietnam - Ho Chi Minh City - as the principal case study to explore this argument, by examining the linkages between urban planning systems, the structures of governance, and climate change adaptation planning. In conclusion it proposes a specific framework to offer insights into some of the more practical considerations, and the approach emphasises the importance of vertical and horizontal coordination in governance and urban planning.
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Klein, Daniel R. „The electricity system vulnerability of selected European countries to climate change : A comparative analysis“. Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Tema vatten i natur och samhälle, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-96598.
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The electricity system is particularly susceptible to climate change due to the close interconnectedness between not only electricity production and consumption to climate, but also the interdependence of many European countries in terms of electricity imports and exports. This study provides a country based relative analysis of a number of selected European countries’ electricity system vulnerability to climate change. Taking into account a number of quantitative influencing factors, the vulnerability of each country is examined both for the current system and using some projected data. Ultimately the result of the analysis is a relative ranked vulnerability index based on a number of qualitative indicators. Overall, countries that either cannot currently meet their own electricity consumption demand with inland production (Luxembourg), or countries that experience and will experience the warmest national mean temperatures, and are expected to see increases in their summer electricity consumption are found to be the most vulnerable for example Greece and Italy. Countries such as the Czech Republic, France and Norway that consistently export surplus electricity and will experience decreases in winter electricity consumption peaks were found to be the least vulnerable to climate change. The inclusion of some qualitative factors however may subject their future vulnerability to increase. The findings of this study enable countries to identify the main factors that increase their electricity system vulnerability and proceed with adaptation measures that are the most eective in decreasing vulnerability.
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Holsten, Anne [Verfasser], und Jürgen P. [Akademischer Betreuer] Kropp. „Climate change vulnerability assessments in the regional context / Anne Holsten. Betreuer: Jürgen P. Kropp“. Potsdam : Universitätsbibliothek der Universität Potsdam, 2013. http://d-nb.info/1037479475/34.
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Coirolo, Cristina. „Climate change and livelihoods in Northwest Bangladesh : vulnerability and adaptation among extremely poor people“. Thesis, University of Sussex, 2013. http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/45225/.
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Winn, Justin P. „Vulnerability and Power: Exploring the Confluence of Politics and Climate Change in Cortez, Florida“. Scholar Commons, 2018. https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/7595.
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This thesis describes how politics shape vulnerability to climate change at the local level, based on an ethnography in Cortez, Florida. Focusing on a “traditional” commercial fishing village on the Florida Gulf Coast, my research indicates that such vulnerabilities are created at multiple scales of the nexus between governance and commerce. Moreover, a key finding is that, as a community closely linked to the health of local environments, the village in Cortez is largely organized to protect their commercial industry from regional economic overdevelopment; not in recognition of its role in contributing to global climate change, but because such overdevelopment is perceived as unjust and destructive to local environments. Further, through qualitatively examining the environmental values of a “traditional” fishing community located in a large metropolitan coastal area, my thesis confronts the responsibility that broader society may have to reevaluate economic growth in effort to truly foster sustainability and justice. Finally, the thesis describes how communities like Cortez may be repositories for locally developed, ecologically grounded resilience strategies, rendering their voice all the more crucial, beyond conventional stakeholder approaches, in public discussions about regional economic development and marine resource management.
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Wherry, Susan Amelia. „Climate Change Effects and Water Vulnerability in the Molalla Pudding River Basin, Oregon, USA“. PDXScholar, 2012. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/556.
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Water management plans are typically developed using historical data records and historical return periods for extreme events, such as floods or droughts. Since these analyses of return periods typically assume a certain degree of stationarity (constant mean, standard deviation, distribution) in hydrologic variables, the potential future impacts of climate change are excluded. In developing water management plans, predicted changes to climate variables should be considered to evaluate the degree of non-stationarity that may exist in the future. In this way, regions most sensitive to climate change can be identified and managed appropriately. This study performed such a task by using predicted climate data that were downscaled from general circulation models (GCM) by regional climate models (RCM) to compare climate variables in the historical period of 1971-1998 to the future period of 2041-2068. The study evaluated the precipitation and minimum/maximum temperature data from five different GCM/RCM combinations: 1) CCSM/CRCM; 2) CCSM/WRFG; 3) CGCM3/CRCM; 4) CGCM3/WRFG; and 5) HadCM3/HRM3. The five datasets were then used to calculate drought indices and drive a calibrated PRMS model of the Molalla Pudding river basin in order to evaluate changes in droughts and streamflow. The predicted changes in droughts and streamflow were then evaluated with social/economic factors for twelve cities in the Molalla Pudding river basin by two different water vulnerability indices. The index values were used to determine a rank for each city that indicated its relative vulnerability to water scarcity as compared to the other cities. In this study, three out of the five datasets predicted increased precipitation (+97-115 mm/year) over the Molalla Pudding basin and the two datasets using the CCSM GCM data predicted either no change or slightly decreased precipitation (-60 mm/year) over the Molalla Pudding basin in 2041-2068. All datasets predicted increased minimum and maximum average temperature of +1.5°C and +1.4°C respectively, and all datasets displayed increasing trends in temperature. The drought indices predicted fewer drought events (-2.4 events) over 2041-2068 with no change in duration, and no change to the number of serious drought events over 2041-2068 but with increased durations (+1.9 months). Results from the hydrologic modeling predicted increased streamflow (+4-249 cfs) in four out of the five future datasets. Using the predicted changes in hydrologic variables and social/economic census data from 2000, two types of water vulnerability indices were calculated for the twelve cities of interest. The results suggested that cities in the western portion of the basin would be more susceptible to current and future water vulnerability due to high irrigation demands for water and high social vulnerability as determined by minority populations and higher poverty, while the small cities with less dependence on agriculture would be less vulnerable.
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O'Brien, Patrick S. „A Framework for the Analysis of Coastal Infrastructure Vulnerability under Global Sea Level Rise“. Thesis, Colorado State University, 2018. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10639192.
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The assumption of hydrologic stationarity has formed the basis of coastal design to date. At the beginning of the 21st century, the impact of climate variability and future climate change on coastal water levels has become apparent through long term tide gauge records, and anecdotal evidence of increased nuisance tidal flooding in coastal areas. Recorded impacts of global sea rise on coastal water levels have been documented over the past 100 to 150 years, and future water levels will continue to change at increasing, unknown rates, resulting in the need to consider the impacts of these changes on past coastal design assumptions. New coastal infrastructure plans, and designs should recognize the paradigm shift in assumptions from hydrologic stationarity to non-stationarity in coastal water levels. As we transition into the new paradigm, there is a significant knowledge gap which must address built coastal infrastructure vulnerability based on the realization that the underlying design assumptions may be invalid.
A framework for the evaluation of existing coastal infrastructure is proposed to effectively assess vulnerability. The framework, called the Climate Preparedness and Resilience Register (CPRR) provides the technical basis for assessing existing and future performance. The CPRR framework consists of four major elements: (1) datum adjustment, (2) coastal water levels, (3) scenario projections and (4) performance thresholds. The CPRR framework defines methodologies which: (1) adjust for non-stationarity in coastal water levels and correctly make projections under multiple scenarios; (2) account for past and future tidal to geodetic datum adjustments; and (3) evaluate past and future design performance by applying performance models to determine the performance thresholds. The framework results are reproducible and applicable to a wide range of coastal infrastructure types in diverse geographic areas.
The framework was applied in two case studies of coastal infrastructure on the east and west coasts of the United States. The east coast case study on the Stamford Hurricane Barrier (SHB) at Stamford CT, investigated the navigation gate closures of the SHB project. The framework was successfully applied using two performance models based on function and reliability to determine the future time frame at which relative sea level rise (RSLR) would cause Navigation Gate closures to occur once per week on average or 52 per year. The closure time analysis also showed the impact of closing the gate earlier to manage internal drainage to the Harbor area behind the Stamford Hurricane Barrier. These analyses were made for three future sea level change (SLC) scenarios.
The west coast case study evaluated four infrastructure elements at the San Francisco Waterfront, one building and three transportation elements. The CPRR framework applied two performance models based on elevation and reliability to assess the vulnerability to flooding under four SLC scenarios. An elevation-based performance model determined a time horizon for flood impacts for king tides, 10 and 100-year annual exceedance events. The reliability-based performance model provided a refinement of results obtained in the elevation-based model due to the addition of uncertainty to the four infrastructure elements.
The CPRR framework and associated methodologies were successfully applied to assess the vulnerability of two coastal infrastructure types and functions in geographically diverse areas on the east and west coasts of the United States.
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Pavel, Md Tanvir. „Three Essays on Managing Extreme Weather Events and Climatic Shocks in Developing and Developed Countries“. FIU Digital Commons, 2018. https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/3797.
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Climate change and extreme weather events are affecting the environment, and people’s livelihood in both developing and developed countries. Agriculture, forestry, fishing, livestock, water resources, human health, terrestrial ecosystems, biodiversity, and coastal zones are among the major sectors impacted by these shocks. The challenge of adaptation is particularly acute in the developing countries, as poverty and resource constraints limit their capacity to act. Bangladesh fits in this category, and thus I use data from Bangladesh to analyze the adaptation process in the first and second chapter of my dissertation.
In the first chapter, I investigate whether transient shocks (flood, cyclone) or permanent shocks (e.g., river erosion that leads to permanent loss of lands) have more influence on interregional migration. Findings of the study suggest that the households prefer to move to the nearest city when the environmental shock is temporary, whereas they tend to relocate over a greater distance when the environmental shock is more permanent in nature.
In the second chapter, I investigate the feasibility of a set of adaptation measures to cope with hydro-climatic shocks (e.g. floods, drought, cyclones, tidal waves) and epidemic shocks (emergence or re-emergence of infectious diseases on livestock and poultry) in the agricultural sector in Bangladesh. Findings suggest that a decrease in agricultural income due to climatic and/or epidemic shocks is likely to induce households to adapt more.
Developed countries are also vulnerable to extreme weather events and climatic shocks. In 2017, United States was hit by three consecutive hurricanes: Harvey, Irma, and Maria. Given the rising exposure and the increasing need to manage coastal vulnerability, the third essay focusses on understanding household preferences for financing adaptation activities in the U. S. and analyzes which mechanism, i.e., state or federal adaptation fund approach, is better suited to managing exposure to such types of natural disaster in the future.
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Cincio, Paige. „Quantifying the Vulnerability of Arctic Water Supply Lakes to Environmental Change Through Paleolimnological Assessment“. Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/41488.
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Anthropogenic stressors to freshwater environments have perpetuated water quality and quantity challenges for northern communities across Arctic Canada, making drinking water resources a primary concern for Arctic populations. To understand the ecological trajectory of freshwater supply sources, we conducted a paleolimnological assessment on two supplemental sources of freshwater in Igloolik, Nunavut, Canada. A stratigraphic examination of bioindicators (Insecta: Diptera: Chironomidae) allowed for paleotemperature reconstructions with decadal and centennial resolution over the past 2000 years. Between 200 and 1900 CE, the sub-fossil chironomid community was comprised of cold-water taxa, such as Abiskomyia, Micropsectra radialis-type, and Paracladius. Reconstructed temperatures were consistent with known climate anomalies during this period. A rapid shift in the composition of the chironomid community to warm-water adapted taxa (Chironomus anthracinus-type, Dicrotendipes, and Tanytarsus lugens-type) in the late 20th century was observed in both systems. Our results demonstrate that these lake ecosystems are undergoing marked transformations to warmer, more nutrient-rich environments, and suggest water sustainability pressures on freshwater and human systems will likely continue in tandem with ongoing climate change. To contextualize the influence of recent warming and elucidate the status of water resource vulnerability over the longer term, paleolimnological methods can be usefully applied as components of vulnerability assessments.
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Pahlisch, Thi Hoa [Verfasser]. „Essays on vulnerability to climate change and child malnutrition in Southeast Asia / Thi Hoa Pahlisch“. Hannover : Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Universität Hannover, 2019. http://d-nb.info/1183907184/34.
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Hu, Xi. „A temporal and spatial analysis of China's infrastructure and economic vulnerability to climate change impacts“. Thesis, University of Oxford, 2017. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:72408c96-c0fc-4dbc-a93b-c29a6c25da0c.
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A warmer climate is expected to increase the risks of natural disasters globally. China is one of the hotspots of climate impacts since its infrastructures and industries are often hard hit. Yet little is known about the nature and the extent to which they are affected. This thesis builds novel system-of-systems risk assessment methodologies and data for China, representing infrastructures (energy, transport, waste, water and digital communications) as interdependent networks that support spatially distributed users of infrastructure services. A unique national-scale geo-spatial network database containing 64,834 existing infrastructure assets is assembled. For the first time, flood and drought exposure maps of China's key infrastructures are created, highlighting the locations of key urban areas to understand how its infrastructures and population could be exposed to climate impacts. To deepen the understanding of how climate change will affect the Chinese infrastructure system and hence its economy, economic impact modelling is applied. The research combines a detailed firm-level econometric analysis of 162,830 companies with a macroeconomic input-output model to estimate flood impacts on China's manufacturing sector over the period 2003 - 2010. It is estimated that flooding on average reduces firm output by 3.18% - 3.87% per year and their propagating effects on the Chinese macroeconomic system to be a 1.38% - 1.68% annual loss in total direct and indirect output, which amounts to 17,323 - 21,082 RMB billion. Several infrastructure sectors - electricity, the heat production and supply industry, gas production and supply, the water production and supply industry - are indirectly affected owing to the effects of supply chain disruptions. Taking the above analysis one step further, this thesis explores how climate disaster risks may change over the period 2016 - 2055, using flooding as a case study. A global river routing (CaMa-Flood) model at a spatial resolution of 0.25° x 0.25° is applied and downscaled for China, using the daily runoff of 11 Atmospheric and Oceanic General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). Combining the flood analysis with the infrastructure database, this research demonstrates the changing locations of exposed infrastructures and their dependent customers. We find that by 2055, the number of infrastructure assets exposed to increasing probability of flooding under RCP 4.5 are 41, 268, 115, 53, 739, 1098, 432 for airports, dams, data centres, ports, power plants, rail stations, reservoirs respectively - almost 8% of all assets for each sector. The lengths of line assets exposed to increasing flood hazards are 14,376 km, 32,740 km, 102,877 km and 25,310 km oil pipelines, rail tracks, roads and transmission lines respectively. Under RCP 8.4, the numbers increase to 51, 301, 137, 71, 812, 1066, 424 for point assets. Linear assets increase to 19,938 km, 39,859 km, 122,155 km and 30,861 km. Further, we demonstrate that indirect exposure of customers reliant on those infrastructure assets outside the floodplain could also be high. The average number of customers affected by increasing flood probabilities are 54 million, 114 million and 131 million for airports, power plants and stations respectively. However, within this aggregate increase there is large spatial variation, which has implications for spatial planning of adaptation to flood risk to infrastructure. This is a first substantial study of flood impacts to infrastructure both in terms of direct exposure and their indirect implications. Lastly, to shed some light on the potential vulnerability of China's infrastructure system to climate impacts, this thesis develops a framework that identifies the drivers of infrastructure development in China using evidence from policy documents and a unique geospatial dataset for the years 1900 - 2010. Understanding these drivers will provide a useful foundation for future research in terms of developing infrastructure models that could project the locations of future infrastructure assets and networks in China, thereby quantifying how China's infrastructure exposure and vulnerability will change over time. Overall this research provides an integrated system-of-systems perspective of understanding network and economic vulnerabilities and risks to Chinese energy, transport, water, waste and digital communication infrastructures due to climate change. This is crucial in informing the long-term planning and adaptation in China.
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Palmer, Anna E. „Climate Change on Arid Lands – A Vulnerability Assessment of Tribal Nations in the American West“. Ohio University / OhioLINK, 2017. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ohiou1502443290575261.
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Mérida, Lindgren Frida. „The Relation Between Climate Change and Gender Inequality in Mozambique : A case study on how climate change affects women in poverty in Mozambique“. Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för samhällsstudier (SS), 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-105606.
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Mozambique is a developing country specifically targeted by the impacts and consequencesthat are caused by climate change. This is due to the inconvenient geographical location interms of climate change but also due to their economical and infrastructural disadvantagewhich makes the countries populations more prone to suffer from the consequences in amanner that makes adapting and coping with the circumstances significantly difficult. At the same time Mozambique has high rates of gender inequality, which impacts women inthe country who live in poverty, in unfavourable forms in everyday life.These two topics are investigated throughout the thesis, from both a broader and closerperspective. The idea with this research is to come closer to cover the research gap that isconcerned with how women in Mozambique who are already targets of gender inequality inthe country suffer from the hard impacts of climate change and how the two issues may relateor influence each other. The research is performed as a qualitative study with the ecofeminist theoretical approach asa lens on the investigation, and the findings were obtained through the text-analysis method.The findings of the research present evidence on how climate change affects Mozambiqueand its society as well as the gender inequality circumstances women live in the samecountry. From empirical studies the findings chapter provides a perspective that helps betterexplain and understand how women's vulnerable position in society along with theirexpected responsibilities due to cultural norms sets them in a directly exposed climatechange-affected position. The research culminates with a response to the research gapsuggesting that the relation between climate change and gender inequality in Mozambiquehas an unbalanced impact on women, where the gender roles forced upon women in thecountry set a targeted situation for them by climate change resulting in a double-burdencircumstance for women.
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Hall, Elin. „Sustainable forests: A strategy for climate change adaptation and mitigation? : A case study from Babati District, Tanzania“. Thesis, Södertörn University College, School of Life Sciences, 2009. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-2719.
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This Bachelor‟s thesis aims at explaining the relationship between forests and climate change, a subject that has been given a lot of attention in environmental discussions in recent years, particularly because forests are a source of carbon dioxide emissions and in the same time have the potential to mitigate climate change through carbon sequestration. However, with the importance of mitigation as a background, the focus of this study is on adaptation. The purpose is to identify mutual benefits from the diverse forest ecosystems, and examine the possible benefits from forests to the rural poor population in Tanzania, in a future scenario of increased vulnerability to climate change. The methodology for the study can be divided into two parts, one qualitative literature study and one field study in Babati District northern Tanzania, limited to interviews and excursions. This thesis gives details about the scientific projections and local perceptions of climate change and the effects of climate change. The results of the thesis highlights the importance of sustainably managed forests and agroforestry systems, which have been successful in Babati through local participation; economic incentives such as carbon credit and other payments for ecosystem services, which is a possible future extension of forestry activities; and increased integration between sectors, which make sure that adaptation within different sectors can be done simultaneously.
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Mitchell, Bruce Coffyn. „A Landscape of Thermal Inequity: Social Vulnerability to Urban Heat in U.S. Cities“. Scholar Commons, 2017. http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/6906.
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A combination of the urban heat island effect and a rising temperature baseline resulting from global climate change inequitably impacts socially vulnerable populations residing in urban areas. This dissertation examines distributional inequity of exposure to urban heat by socially disadvantaged groups and minorities in the context of climate justice. Using Cutter’s hazards-of-place model, variables indicative of social vulnerability and biophysical vulnerability are statistically tested for their associations. Biophysical vulnerability is conceptualized utilizing a urban heat risk index calculated from summer 2010 LANDSAT imagery to measure land surface temperature , structural density through the normalized difference built-up index, and vegetation abundance through the normalized difference vegetation index. A cross-section of twenty geographically distributed metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the U.S. are examined using census derived variables at the tract level. The results of bivariate correlation analysis, ordinary least squares regression, and spatial autoregression analysis indicate consistent and significant associations between greater social disadvantage and higher urban heat levels. Multilevel modeling is used to examine the relationship of MSA-level segregation with tract-level minority status and social disadvantage to higher levels of urban heat. Segregation has a significant but varied relationship with the variables, indicating that there are inconsistent associations with urban heat due to differing urban ecologies. Urban heat and social vulnerability present a varying landscape of thermal inequity in different urban areas, associated in many cases with residential segregation.
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Kelly, Ute, und Rhys H. S. Kelly. „Becoming vulnerable in the era of climate change: Questions and dilemmas for a pedagogy of vulnerability“. Information Age Publishing, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10454/17547.
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YesThis chapter aims to be both an exploration and an example of (or an experiment with) a ‘pedagogy of vulnerability’. It reports and reflects on efforts to create spaces for co-inquiry with students, as attempts to both escape the limits of traditional pedagogic relationships and to create spaces and opportunities for deeper learning. We consider how or whether the central premise of a ‘pedagogy of vulnerability’ – that purposeful and selective acts self-disclosure by teachers can help build the conditions of trust and care needed for dialogue around emotionally and politically challenging topics – is borne out in our experience.
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Glaas, Erik. „Reconstructing Noah’s ark : Integration of climate change adaptation into Swedish public policy“. Doctoral thesis, Linköpings universitet, Centrum för klimatpolitisk forskning, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-90177.
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Due to expected impacts such as flooding, landslides, and biodiversity loss, climate change adaptation has become recognized as an inevitable part of climate change policy and practice. However, our understanding of how to organize the management of adaptation is lacking, and few concrete measures have yet been implemented. Knowledge gaps exist relating to constraints on and opportunities and facilitating factors for adaptation. This study aims to fill such gaps by analyzing how Swedish climate change vulnerability and adaptation management is integrated across issues, sectors, and scales in public policy. The analysis is supported by two interconnected sub-studies. The first maps the national and local institutionalization of adaptation through document analyses at different policy levels. The second analyses practical approaches to and perceptions of vulnerability and adaptation management in two case municipalities. In the latter sub-study, qualitative interviews and stakeholder dialogues were held with officials from various local sector departments. The results indicate that climate change adaptation is poorly integrated into Swedish public policy. Constrains on local horizontal integration include a lack of cross-sectoral coordination and knowledge, weak local political interest, and varying opportunities for sector departments to influence policy. These constraints result in climate vulnerability being considered late in municipal and regional strategic planning processes. They also reduce the possibility of identifying overarching municipal goals. At the national level, horizontal integration is negatively affected by a lack of government guidelines and by unclear division of responsibility. Constraints on vertical integration include poor fit between the national and municipal levels, due to a perceived absence of national goals, guidelines, and funding, and the lack of a sufficient knowledge base for decision-making. This makes it difficult to now what measures to prioritize and how to evaluate progress. The analysis of adaptation policy integration also gives insights into some general factors found to either constrain or facilitate implementation of adaptation. In Sweden, both horizontal and vertical integration has been facilitated by the few national and regional guidelines established to date, indicating that national steering would offer a useful way forward. Policy integration could be increased by formulating national adaptation goals, creating a national adaptation fund, creating municipal adaptation coordinator posts, and paying greater attention to climate change vulnerability in proactive economic planning.Förväntade konsekvenser av klimatförändringar såsom översvämningar, jordskred och biodiversitetsförluster har utvecklats till viktiga klimatpolitiska frågor. Förståelsen av hur hantering av klimateffekter kan organiseras är dock begränsad. Kunskapsluckor existerar även kring hinder och möjligheter för implementering av klimatanpassning. Därför har få anpassningsåtgärder hittills realiserats. Denna studie syftar till att bidra med kunskap för att fylla ovanstående luckor, genom att analysera hur hantering av klimatsårbarhet och anpassning är integrerade i andra frågor, sektorer och nivåer i svensk offentlig policy. Analysen stöds av två sammanlänkande delstudier. Den första kartlägger genom dokumentanalyser, hur anpassning institutionaliserats på nationell och lokal nivå. Den andra analyserar praktiska tillvägagångssätt till, och åsikter om, hantering av anpassning i två svenska kommuner. I den senare delstudien har kvalitativa intervjuer och intressentdialoger genomförts med kommuntjänstemän från olika sektorsförvaltningar. Studien visar att anpassningsfrågan är undermåligt integrerad i svensk offentlig policy. Hinder för horisontell integrering på det lokala planet inkluderar en brist på tvärsektoriell koordinering och kunskapsuppbyggnad, ett svalt lokalpolitiskt intresse och olika möjligheter för sektorsförvaltningar att påverka beslutsfattande. Detta får till följd att klimatsårbarhet övervägs sent i kommunal och regional strategisk planering. Det försvårar också möjligheten att finna övergripande kommunala mål. På den nationella nivån påverkas den horisontella integreringen negativt av en avsaknad av statliga riktlinjer och fördelning av ansvar. Hinder för vertikal integrering inkluderar en brist på matchning mellan nationell och lokal policynivå på grund av en upplevd avsaknad av nationella mål, riktlinjer, finansiering och kunskapsunderlag. Detta gör det svårt att prioritera bland åtgärder, och att utvärdera framsteg. Analysen av policyintegrering ger även insyn i mer generella faktorer som antingen hindrar eller främjar implementering av klimatanpassning. De få statliga och regionala riktlinjer som hittills utvecklats i Sverige, har främjat horisontell och vertikal integrering av anpassning. Detta indikerar att nationell styrning är viktigt för att underlätta implementering av klimatanpassning. För att stärka policyintegreringen föreslås därför att nationella anpassningsmål utvecklas, att en nationell anpassningsfond instiftas, att en tjänst inom kommuner för att koordinera klimatanpassning etableras och att en större vikt ges till klimatsårbarhet och anpassning i proaktiv ekonomisk planering.
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Keeton, Jenna M. „The Vulnerability of Littoral Structures Under Multiyear Drought Conditions“. DigitalCommons@USU, 2019. https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/7585.
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Climate change is associated with altered environmental conditions and shifting mosaics of suitable habitats for organisms. Climate change in the form of drought can shift important lake shoreline habitats downslope, altering the lakes chemistry and habitat availability. Additionally, negative biological consequences can occur after a loss of submerged habitat along shorelines, hereafter littoral habitat. The objective of this study is to evaluate whether littoral habitat is lost (cobble, coarse woody habitat (fallen trees; CWH), and aquatic vegetation) under drought conditions across the United States. I used the National Lakes Assessment physical habitat data collected in summer 2012, when 75% of the U.S. experienced drought. I calculated the probability of cobble, CWH, and aquatic vegetation loss with lake level decline. I found cobble and CWH were highly vulnerable, where just 1 meter of lake level loss would result in nearly 100% habitat loss. Aquatic vegetation exhibited vulnerability but at a higher threshold. Multiyear drought will continue into the future with scientists estimating increases in drought frequency and severity, and we do not yet understand how or if aquatic animals will be resilient to a loss of littoral habitat. For example, previous research suggests food webs may be slow to recovery following littoral habitat loss. We must continue to evaluate the biological and environmental consequences of littoral habitat loss under drought conditions to successfully manage lakes and reservoirs into the future.