Thematische Bibliographien / Climate change vulnerability

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Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „Climate change vulnerability“

Autor: Grafiati

Veröffentlicht am 25. Juni 2021

Zuletzt aktualisiert am 13. Februar 2022

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Zeitschriftenartikel zum Thema "Climate change vulnerability"

Blasi, Carlo, Leopoldo Michetti, Maria Antonietta Del Moro, Olivia Testa und Lorenzo Teodonio. „Climate change and desertification vulnerability in Southern Italy“. Phytocoenologia 37, Nr. 3-4 (01.12.2007): 495–521. http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/0340-269x/2007/0037-0495.

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Srinivasan, Ancha. „Climate Change and Vulnerability and Climate Change and Adaptation“. Climate and Development 1, Nr. 2 (Juli 2009): 185–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.3763/cdev.2009.0016.

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Nakayama, Mikiyasu, Scott Drinkall und Daisuke Sasaki. „Climate Change, Migration, and Vulnerability“. Journal of Disaster Research 14, Nr. 9 (01.12.2019): 1245. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2019.p1245.

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As global sea levels continue to rise, atoll countries—facing persistent and imminent risk—are expected to become source nations of climate migrants in the foreseeable future. This special issue features 10 academic articles, which examine if residents in Pacific atoll countries were, are, or will be ready to re-establish their livelihoods after relocation. The topic of migration is akin to a kaleidoscope, with continuously evolving shapes and colors, necessitating a broad spectrum of approaches across various disciplines. The authors of these articles thus examined the topic through mathematics, civil engineering, cultural and disaster studies, economics, education, geography, international relations, language, law, sociology and politics. The methodologies applied range from policy analysis to structural equation modeling. Migration driven by climate change takes place gradually, even over a few decades. Unlike forced migration due to causes such as war and conflict, future climate migrants have the short-term advantage of time to ready themselves for displacement from their homeland. Preparation prior to relocation may include enhancing one’s language or vocational skills. One of the focal points of this special issue is therefore the preparedness of migrants, both past and future. Case studies were carried out across Fiji, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the United States. We also considered how migrants are received following resettlement, both in terms of legal instruments and assistance given by the public and private sectors. Case studies conducted in Austria and the United States address this aspect. Yet another focus is to identify prevailing factors through which people develop their perceptions of climate change and its implications, for such perceptions are a driving force for migration. Case studies in Kiribati and the Marshall Islands contribute to this understanding. We hope this special issue sharpens the vision of climate change and migration, and serves as a stepping stone for further research in the field.

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McLaughlin, Paul. „Climate Change, Adaptation, and Vulnerability“. Organization & Environment 24, Nr. 3 (September 2011): 269–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1086026611419862.

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Cuomo, Chris J. „Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Responsibility“. Hypatia 26, Nr. 4 (2011): 690–714. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1527-2001.2011.01220.x.

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In this essay I present an overview of the problem of climate change, with attention to issues of interest to feminists, such as the differential responsibilities of nations and the disproportionate “vulnerabilities” of females, people of color, and the economically disadvantaged in relation to climate change. I agree with others that justice requires governments, corporations, and individuals to take full responsibility for histories of pollution, and for present and future greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless I worry that an overemphasis on household and personal‐sphere fossil fuel emissions distracts from attention to higher‐level corporate and governmental responsibilities for addressing the problem of climate change. I argue that more attention should be placed on the higher‐level responsibilities of corporations and governments, and I discuss how individuals might more effectively take responsibility for addressing global climate change, especially when corporations and governments refuse to do so.

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Bohle, Hans G., Thomas E. Downing und Michael J. Watts. „Climate change and social vulnerability“. Global Environmental Change 4, Nr. 1 (März 1994): 37–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0959-3780(94)90020-5.

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Thomas, Kimberley Anh, und Benjamin P. Warner. „Weaponizing vulnerability to climate change“. Global Environmental Change 57 (Juli 2019): 101928. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101928.

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Khaliq, Imran, Christian Hof, Roland Prinzinger, Katrin Böhning-Gaese und Markus Pfenninger. „Global variation in thermal tolerances and vulnerability of endotherms to climate change“. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 281, Nr. 1789 (22.08.2014): 20141097. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2014.1097.

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The relationships among species' physiological capacities and the geographical variation of ambient climate are of key importance to understanding the distribution of life on the Earth. Furthermore, predictions of how species will respond to climate change will profit from the explicit consideration of their physiological tolerances. The climatic variability hypothesis, which predicts that climatic tolerances are broader in more variable climates, provides an analytical framework for studying these relationships between physiology and biogeography. However, direct empirical support for the hypothesis is mostly lacking for endotherms, and few studies have tried to integrate physiological data into assessments of species' climatic vulnerability at the global scale. Here, we test the climatic variability hypothesis for endotherms, with a comprehensive dataset on thermal tolerances derived from physiological experiments, and use these data to assess the vulnerability of species to projected climate change. We find the expected relationship between thermal tolerance and ambient climatic variability in birds, but not in mammals—a contrast possibly resulting from different adaptation strategies to ambient climate via behaviour, morphology or physiology. We show that currently most of the species are experiencing ambient temperatures well within their tolerance limits and that in the future many species may be able to tolerate projected temperature increases across significant proportions of their distributions. However, our findings also underline the high vulnerability of tropical regions to changes in temperature and other threats of anthropogenic global changes. Our study demonstrates that a better understanding of the interplay among species' physiology and the geography of climate change will advance assessments of species' vulnerability to climate change.

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Vieira, Marta Tostes, Alfredo Villavicencio Vieira und Claudia Motta Villa García. „Vulnerability Index Elaboration for Climate Change Adaptation in Peru“. European Journal of Sustainable Development 8, Nr. 5 (01.10.2019): 102. http://dx.doi.org/10.14207/ejsd.2019.v8n5p102.

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This paper evidences one of the most relevant information gaps of climate change adaptation in Peru: its vulnerabilities. First, it contextualizes main national level impacts and progress made in adaptation measures definition from prioritized thematic areas. Then, it addresses the difficulty of finding tools to measure climatic risk level. For instance, this arises the need to focus on the vulnerability associated with climate change adaptation efforts. Therefore, a vulnerability index based on a multi criteria analysis is proposed, with three parts. In the first one, three-work axes were chosen following the fifth IPCC report guidelines: climatic phenomena dangers, territorial exposure, and subjects’ vulnerability. The territorial area analysis was carried on at district level. With regard to subjects, five indicator groups were identified, and measurable variables were chosen: population; species and ecosystems; functions, services, and environmental municipalities’ assets; economic, social and cultural assets; and infrastructure. Next, data was searched for each variable and it was systematized in a multi-criteria database. Finally, an index (0-15) was developed to calculate socio-climatic vulnerability of all the Peruvian District Municipalities. They were classified according to social, climatic, and socio-climatic vulnerability range. This facilitates a targeting instrument for public policies that can generate better climate change risk management and contributes to commitments fulfillment of the Sustainable Development Goals.Keywords: Climate change, Vulnerability, Climate change adaptation, Socio-climatic vulnerabilities, Climate risk, Sustainable Development Goals

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Hallegatte, Stephane, Marianne Fay und Edward B. Barbier. „Poverty and climate change: introduction“. Environment and Development Economics 23, Nr. 3 (16.05.2018): 217–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1355770x18000141.

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AbstractBecause their assets and income represent such a small share of national wealth, the impacts of climate change on poor people, even if dramatic, will be largely invisible in aggregate economic statistics such as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Assessing and managing future impacts of climate change on poverty requires different metrics, and specific studies focusing on the vulnerability of poor people. This special issue provides a set of such studies, looking at the exposure and vulnerability of people living in poverty to shocks and stressors that are expected to increase in frequency or intensity due to climate change, such as floods, droughts, heat waves, and impacts on agricultural production and ecosystem services. This introduction summarizes their approach and findings, which support the idea that the link between poverty and climate vulnerability goes both ways: poverty is one major driver of people's vulnerability to climate-related shocks and stressors, and this vulnerability is keeping people in poverty. The paper concludes by identifying priorities for future research.

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Dissertationen zum Thema "Climate change vulnerability"

Adger, William Neil. „Social vulnerability to climate change in Vietnam“. Thesis, University of East Anglia, 1998. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.389394.

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Nunes, João Pedro Carvalho. „Vulnerability of mediterranean watersheds to climate change“. Doctoral thesis, FCT - UNL, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/1371.

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Desertification is a critical issue for Mediterranean drylands. Climate change is expected to aggravate its extension and severity by reinforcing the biophysical driving forces behind desertification processes: hydrology, vegetation cover and soil erosion. The main objective of this thesis is to assess the vulnerability of Mediterranean watersheds to climate change, by estimating impacts on desertification drivers and the watersheds’ resilience to them. To achieve this objective, a modeling framework capable of analyzing the processes linking climate and the main drivers is developed. The framework couples different models adapted to different spatial and temporal scales. A new model for the event scale is developed, the MEFIDIS model, with a focus on the particular processes governing Mediterranean watersheds. Model results are compared with desertification thresholds to estimate resilience. This methodology is applied to two contrasting study areas: the Guadiana and the Tejo, which currently present a semi-arid and humid climate. The main conclusions taken from this work can be summarized as follows: • hydrological processes show a high sensitivity to climate change, leading to a significant decrease in runoff and an increase in temporal variability; • vegetation processes appear to be less sensitive, with negative impacts for agricultural species and forests, and positive impacts for Mediterranean species; • changes to soil erosion processes appear to depend on the balance between changes to surface runoff and vegetation cover, itself governed by relationship between changes to temperature and rainfall; • as the magnitude of changes to climate increases, desertification thresholds are surpassed in a sequential way, starting with the watersheds’ ability to sustain current water demands and followed by the vegetation support capacity; • the most important thresholds appear to be a temperature increase of +3.5 to +4.5 ºC and a rainfall decrease of -10 to -20 %; • rainfall changes beyond this threshold could lead to severe water stress occurring even if current water uses are moderated, with droughts occurring in 1 out of 4 years; • temperature changes beyond this threshold could lead to a decrease in agricultural yield accompanied by an increase in soil erosion for croplands; • combined changes of temperature and rainfall beyond the thresholds could shift both systems towards a more arid state, leading to severe water stresses and significant changes to the support capacity for current agriculture and natural vegetation in both study areas.
Supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology and the European Union under Operational Program “Science and Innovation” (POCI 2010), Ph.D. grant ref. SFRH/BD/5059/2001

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Holsten, Anne. „Climate change vulnerability assessments in the regional context“. Phd thesis, Universität Potsdam, 2013. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2013/6683/.

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Adapting sectors to new conditions under climate change requires an understanding of regional vulnerabilities. Conceptually, vulnerability is defined as a function of sensitivity and exposure, which determine climate impacts, and adaptive capacity of a system. Vulnerability assessments for quantifying these components have become a key tool within the climate change field. However, there is a disagreement on how to make the concept operational in studies from a scientific perspective. This conflict leads to many still unsolved challenges, especially regarding the quantification and aggregation of the components and their suitable level of complexity. This thesis therefore aims at advancing the scientific foundation of such studies by translating the concept of vulnerability into a systematic assessment structure. This includes all components and implies that for each considered impact (e.g. flash floods) a clear sensitive entity is defined (e.g. settlements) and related to a direction of change for a specific climatic stimulus (e.g. increasing impact due to increasing days with heavy precipitation). Regarding the challenging aggregation procedure, two alternative methods allowing a cross-sectoral overview are introduced and their advantages and disadvantages discussed. This assessment structure is subsequently exemplified for municipalities of the German state North Rhine-Westphalia via an indicator-based deductive approach using information from literature. It can be transferred also to other regions. As for many relevant sectors, suitable indicators to express the vulnerability components are lacking, new quantification methods are developed and applied in this thesis, for example for the forestry and health sector. A lack of empirical data on relevant thresholds is evident, for example which climatic changes would cause significant impacts. Consequently, the multi-sectoral study could only provide relative measures for each municipality, in relation to the region. To fill this gap, an exemplary sectoral study was carried out on windthrow impacts in forests to provide an absolute quantification of the present and future impact. This is achieved by formulating an empirical relation between the forest characteristics and damage based on data from a past storm event. The resulting measure indicating the sensitivity is then combined with wind conditions. Multi-sectoral vulnerability assessments require considerable resources, which often hinders the implementation. Thus, in a next step, the potential for reducing the complexity is explored. To predict forest fire occurrence, numerous meteorological indices are available, spanning over a range of complexity. Comparing their performance, the single variable relative humidity outperforms complex indicators for most German states in explaining the monthly fire pattern. This is the case albeit it is itself an input factor in most indices. Thus, this meteorological factor alone is well suited to evaluate forest fire danger in many Germany regions and allows a resource-efficient assessment. Similarly, the complexity of methods is assessed regarding the application of the ecohydrological model SWIM to the German region of Brandenburg. The inter-annual soil moisture levels simulated by this model can only poorly be represented by simpler statistical approach using the same input data. However, on a decadal time horizon, the statistical approach shows a good performance and a strong dominance of the soil characteristic field capacity. This points to a possibility to reduce the input factors for predicting long-term averages, but the results are restricted by a lack of empirical data on soil water for validation. The presented assessments of vulnerability and its components have shown that they are still a challenging scientific undertaking. Following the applied terminology, many problems arise when implementing it for regional studies. Advances in addressing shortcomings of previous studies have been made by constructing a new systematic structure for characterizing and aggregating vulnerability components. For this, multiple approaches were presented, but they have specific advantages and disadvantages, which should also be carefully considered in future studies. There is a potential to simplify some methods, but more systematic assessments on this are needed. Overall, this thesis strengthened the use of vulnerability assessments as a tool to support adaptation by enhancing their scientific basis.
Die Anpassung von Sektoren an veränderte klimatische Bedingungen erfordert ein Verständnis von regionalen Vulnerabilitäten. Vulnerabilität ist als Funktion von Sensitivität und Exposition, welche potentielle Auswirkungen des Klimawandels darstellen, und der Anpassungsfähigkeit von Systemen definiert. Vulnerabilitätsstudien, die diese Komponenten quantifizieren, sind zu einem wichtigen Werkzeug in der Klimawissenschaft geworden. Allerdings besteht von der wissenschaftlichen Perspektive aus gesehen Uneinigkeit darüber, wie diese Definition in Studien umgesetzt werden soll. Ausdiesem Konflikt ergeben sich viele Herausforderungen, vor allem bezüglich der Quantifizierung und Aggregierung der einzelnen Komponenten und deren angemessenen Komplexitätsniveaus. Die vorliegende Dissertation hat daher zum Ziel die Anwendbarkeit des Vulnerabilitätskonzepts voranzubringen, indem es in eine systematische Struktur übersetzt wird. Dies beinhaltet alle Komponenten und schlägt für jede Klimaauswirkung (z.B. Sturzfluten) eine Beschreibung des vulnerablen Systems vor (z.B. Siedlungen), welches direkt mit einer bestimmten Richtung eines relevanten klimatischen Stimulus in Verbindung gebracht wird (z.B. stärkere Auswirkungen bei Zunahme der Starkregentage). Bezüglich der herausfordernden Prozedur der Aggregierung werden zwei alternative Methoden, die einen sektorübergreifenden Überblick ermöglichen, vorgestellt und deren Vor- und Nachteile diskutiert. Anschließend wird die entwickelte Struktur einer Vulnerabilitätsstudie mittels eines indikatorbasierten und deduktiven Ansatzes beispielhaft für Gemeinden in Nordrhein-Westfalen in Deutschland angewandt. Eine Übertragbarkeit auf andere Regionen ist dennoch möglich. Die Quantifizierung für die Gemeinden stützt sich dabei auf Informationen aus der Literatur. Da für viele Sektoren keine geeigneten Indikatoren vorhanden waren, werden in dieser Arbeit neue Indikatoren entwickelt und angewandt, beispielsweise für den Forst- oder Gesundheitssektor. Allerdings stellen fehlende empirische Daten bezüglich relevanter Schwellenwerte eine Lücke dar, beispielsweise welche Stärke von Klimaänderungen eine signifikante Auswirkung hervorruft. Dies führt dazu, dass die Studie nur relative Aussagen zum Grad der Vulnerabilität jeder Gemeinde im Vergleich zum Rest des Bundeslandes machen kann. Um diese Lücke zu füllen, wird für den Forstsektor beispielhaft die heutige und zukünftige Sturmwurfgefahr von Wäldern berechnet. Zu diesem Zweck werden die Eigenschaften der Wälder mit empirischen Schadensdaten eines vergangenen Sturmereignisses in Verbindung gebracht. Der sich daraus ergebende Sensitivitätswert wird anschließend mit den Windverhältnissen verknüpft. Sektorübergreifende Vulnerabilitätsstudien erfordern beträchtliche Ressourcen, was oft deren Anwendbarkeit erschwert. In einem nächsten Schritt wird daher das Potential einer Vereinfachung der Komplexität anhand zweier sektoraler Beispiele untersucht. Um das Auftreten von Waldbränden vorherzusagen, stehen zahlreiche meteorologische Indices zur Verfügung, welche eine Spannbreite unterschiedlicher Komplexitäten aufweisen. Bezüglich der Anzahl monatlicher Waldbrände weist die relative Luftfeuchtigkeit für die meisten deutschen Bundesländer eine bessere Vorhersagekraft als komplexere Indices auf. Dies ist er Fall, obgleich sie selbst als Eingangsvariable für die komplexeren Indices verwendet wird. Mit Hilfe dieses einzelnen meteorologischen Faktors kann also die Waldbrandgefahr in deutschen Region ausreichend genau ausgedrückt werden, was die Ressourceneffizienz von Studien erhöht. Die Methodenkomplexität wird auf ähnliche Weise hinsichtlich der Anwendung des ökohydrologischen Modells SWIM für die Region Brandenburg untersucht. Die interannuellen Bodenwasserwerte, welche durch dieses Modell simuliert werden, können nur unzureichend durch ein einfacheres statistisches Modell, welches auf denselben Eingangsdaten aufbaut, abgebildet werden. Innerhalb eines Zeithorizonts von Jahrzehnten, kann der statistische Ansatz jedoch das Bodenwasser zufriedenstellend abbilden und zeigt eine Dominanz der Bodeneigenschaft Feldkapazität. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass die Komplexität im Hinblick auf die Anzahl der Eingangsvariablen für langfristige Berechnungen reduziert werden kann. Allerdings sind die Aussagen durch fehlende beobachtete Bodenwasserwerte zur Validierung beschränkt. Die vorliegenden Studien zur Vulnerabilität und ihren Komponenten haben gezeigt, dass eine Anwendung noch immer wissenschaftlich herausfordernd ist. Folgt man der hier verwendeten Vulnerabilitätsdefinition, treten zahlreiche Probleme bei der Implementierung in regionalen Studien auf. Mit dieser Dissertation wurden Fortschritte bezüglich der aufgezeigten Lücken bisheriger Studien erzielt, indem eine systematische Struktur für die Beschreibung und Aggregierung von Vulnerabilitätskomponenten erarbeitet wurde. Hierfür wurden mehrere Ansätze diskutiert, die jedoch Vor- und Nachteile besitzen. Diese sollten vor der Anwendung von zukünftigen Studien daher ebenfalls sorgfältig abgewogen werden. Darüber hinaus hat sich gezeigt, dass ein Potential besteht einige Ansätze zu vereinfachen, jedoch sind hierfür weitere Untersuchungen nötig. Insgesamt konnte die Dissertation die Anwendung von Vulnerabilitätsstudien als Werkzeug zur Unterstützung von Anpassungsmaßnahmen stärken.

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Wiréhn, Lotten. „Climate vulnerability assessment methodology : Agriculture under climate change in the Nordic region“. Doctoral thesis, Linköpings universitet, Tema Miljöförändring, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-143226.

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Food security and climate change mitigation are crucial missions for the agricultural sector and for global work on sustainable development. Concurrently, agricultural production is directly dependent on climatic conditions, making climate change adaptation strategies essential for the agricultural sector. There is consequently a need for researchers, planners, and practitioners to better understand how, why, and to what extent agriculture is vulnerable to climate change. Such analyses involve challenges in relation to the complex social– ecological character of the agricultural system and to the multiple conceptualizations and approaches used in analysing vulnerability. The aim of this thesis is to identify how vulnerability assessments can be used to represent climate-related vulnerability in Nordic agriculture, in order to advance the methodological development of indicator-based and geographic visualization methods. The following research questions are addressed: (i) How can agricultural vulnerability to climate change and variability in the Nordic countries be characterized? (ii) How do selections, definitions, and emphases of indicators influence how vulnerability is assessed? (iii) How do estimates of vulnerability vary depending on the methods used in assessments? (iv) How can geographic visualization be applied in integrated vulnerability assessments? This thesis analyses and applies various vulnerability assessment approaches in the context of Nordic agriculture. This thesis demonstrates that various methods for composing vulnerability indices result in significantly different outcomes, despite using the same set of indicators. A conceptual framework for geographic visualization approaches to vulnerability assessments was developed for the purpose of creating transparent and interactive assessments regarding the indicating variables, methods and assumptions applied, i.e., opening up the ‘black box’ of composite indices. This framework served as the foundation for developing the AgroExplore geographic visualization tool. The tool enables the user to interactively select, categorize, and weight indicators as well as to explore the data and the spatial patterns of the indicators and indices. AgroExplore was used in focus group settings with experts in the Swedish agricultural sector. The visualization-supported dialogue results confirm the difficulty of selecting and constructing indicators, including different perceptions of what indicators actually indicate, the assumption of linear relationships between the indicators and vulnerability, and, consequently, that the direction of the relationship is predefined for each indicator. This thesis further points at the inherent complexity of agricultural challenges and opportunities in the context of climate change as such. It is specifically emphasized that agricultural adaptation policies and measures involve trade-offs between various environmental and socio–economic objectives, and that their implementation could furthermore entail unintended consequences, i.e., potential maladaptive outcomes. Nevertheless, it proved difficult to validate indicators due to, e.g. matters of scale and data availability. While heavy precipitation and other extreme weather events are perceived as the most relevant drivers of climate vulnerability by the agricultural experts participating in this study, statistical analyses of historical data identified few significant relationships between crop yield losses and heavy precipitation. In conclusion, this thesis contributes to the method development of composite indices and indicator-based vulnerability assessment. A key conclusion is that assessments are method dependent and that indicator selection is related to aspects such as the system’s spatial scale and location as well as to indicator thresholds and defined relationships with vulnerability, recognizing the contextual dependency of agricultural vulnerability. Consequently, given the practicality of indicator-based methods, I stress with this thesis that future vulnerability studies must take into account and be transparent about the principles and limitations of indicator-based assessment methods in order to ensure their usefulness, validity, and relevance for guiding adaptation strategies.
För jordbrukssektorn och global hållbar utveckling i stort är matsäkerhet och mitigering av klimatförändringar viktiga angelägenheter. Samtidigt är jordbruksproduktionen ofta direkt beroende av klimatförhållanden, vilket gör klimatanpassningsstrategier mycket centrala för sektorn. Forskare, planerare och aktörer behöver förstå hur, varför och i vilken omfattning jordbruket är sårbart inför klimatförändringar. Sådana analyser inbegriper även de utmaningar som skapas genom jordbrukets komplexa socio-ekologiska karaktär, och de många utgångspunkter och tillvägagångssätt som används för att bedöma sårbarhet. Syftet med denna avhandling är att identifiera hur sårbarhetsbedömningar kan representera klimatrelaterad sårbarhet i nordiskt jordbruk, och i och med detta har avhandlingen som avsikt att utveckla metodologin för indikatorbaserade- och geografiska visualiseringsmetoder. Följande forskningsfrågor avhandlas: (i) Hur kan det nordiska jordbrukets sårbarhet inför klimatvariation och förändringar karaktäriseras? (ii) Hur påverkar urval, definitioner och betoningar av indikatorer bedömningar av sårbarhet? (iii) Hur varierar uppskattningar med bedömningsmetod? (iv) Hur kan geografisk visualisering användas i integrerade såbarhetsbedömningar? För att svara på dessa frågor analyseras och tillämpas olika tillvägagångssätt att bedöma sårbarhet inom nordiskt jordbruk. Avhandlingen visar att olika metoder för sårbarhetskompositindex resulterar i signifikanta skillnader mellan index, trots att samma indikatorer och data används. Ett konceptuellt ramverk för sårberhetsbedömningar där geografisk visualisering används, har utvecklats för att möjliggöra transparens avseende till exempel. vilka variabler, metoder och antaganden som används i kompositindex. Detta ramverk har följaktligen legat till grund för att utveckla ett geografiskt visualiseringsverktyg – AgroExplore. Verktyget möjliggör interaktivitet där användaren kan välja, kategorisera och vikta indikatorer, och dessutom utforska data och spatiala mönster av indikatorer och kompositindex. AgroExplore användes i denna avhandling för att stödja fokusgruppdialoger med experter inom den svenska jordbrukssektorn. Resultaten från dessa workshops bekräftar svårigheten med att välja och skapa indikatorer. Dessa svårigheter innefattar olika uppfattningar om vad indikatorer representerar, antagandet om linjära samband mellan indikatorerna och sårbarhet, och följaktligen att sambandens riktning är fördefinierade för respektive indikator. Utöver de konceptuella och metodologiska utmaningarna med sårbarhetsbedömningar visar avhandlingen på komplexa svårigheter och möjligheter för jordbruket vid klimatförändringar. Särskilt framhålls att klimatanpassningspolitik och åtgärder inom jordbruket medför konflikter och avvägningar mellan olika miljö- och socio-ekonomiska mål. Implementering av sådana anpassningsåtgärder kan vidare innebära oönskade konsekvenser, så kallad missanpassning. Trots ökad kunskap gällande nordiska jordbrukets sårbarhet inför klimatförändringar har det visats sig vara svårt att statistiskt validera indikatorer på grund av, exempelvis, skalproblematik och datatillgänglighet. Samtidigt som experterna ansåg att kraftig nederbörd och andra extrema väderhändelser är de mest relevanta drivkrafterna till klimatsårbarhet visar den statistiska analysen av historiska data på få signifikanta samband mellan förlorad skördeavkastning och kraftig nederbörd. Denna avhandling bidrar till metodutveckling av kompositindex och indikatorbaserade metoder för sårbarhetsbedömningar. En viktig slutsats är att bedömningar är metodberoende och att valet av indikatorer är relaterat till aspekter såsom systemets utbredning och den spatiala skalan av bedömningen. Även indikatorernas tröskelvärden och hur deras relation till sårbarhet är definierade anses vara viktiga faktorer som påverkar hur indikatorer representerar sårbarhet, vilket visar på sårbarhetsbedömningars kontextuella beroende. I och med de rådande bristerna hos indikatorbaserade metoder, som bland annat har identifierats i denna avhandling, vill jag framhålla vikten av att sårbarhetsbedömningar bör vara transparanta gällande den tillämpade metodens principer, antaganden och begräsningar. Detta för att säkerställa användbarhet, giltighet och relevans, om metoden och bedömningen ska ligga till grund för anpassningsstrategier hos såväl politiker, planerare och lantbrukare.

This is deliverable of the Nordic Centre of Excellence for Strategic Adaptation Research (NORD-STAR), funded by the Nordic Top-level Research Initiative Sub-programme ‘Effects Studies and Adaptation to Climate Change’.

The work has also been supported by the Swedish Research Council FORMAS under Grant No. 2013-1557 ‘Identifying thresholds for maladaptation in Nordic agriculture’

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Begum, UKM Shawkat ARA. „MODERNIZATION, VULNERABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHWEST BANGLADESH“. Diss., The University of Arizona, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/205178.

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The southwest coastal region of Bangladesh bears the mark of modernization, beginning with a high engineering water resource management, agricultural intensification and consequent integration into the global export market. The four-decade process of modernization has altered the coastal hydrology, rearticulated the patterns of social and ecological relationships and transformed resource access and management mechanism. The modernization of water management installed embankments, sluice gates, and polders and regulated the natural flow of saline and freshwater in the complex coastal system. In the early stage of this dimension of modernization, coastal communities became benefited in producing high yielding variety (HYV) rice. However, in the long run technical management of a complex hydrologic system caused prolong water-logging and caused a water disaster in many of the controlled coastal regions.The second dimension of modernization was accomplished through the process of trade liberalization and intensification of agricultural system. In the 1980s, the Government of Bangladesh launched a reformulation of land and financial policies to stimulate the growth of an export oriented shrimp industry, including prawn. The intensification of agriculture, as expressed in the mode of intensive prawn farming improved the economic condition of the farmers. However, the capital intensive prawn farming transformed local institutions and made the farmers vulnerable to external stresses as they become connected to global market system. Market price fluctuation, trade barrier and poor institutional support are increasing vulnerability among the farmers.Nonetheless, prawn farming that significantly depends on natural system has become challenging to the recent climate variability. An analysis of farmers' perception and different environmental data shows that changes in precipitation, temperature, salinity and other extreme climatic events have increased uncertainty to the future of prawn farming. The cumulative impact from a social (market) and environmental (climate change) have seriously undermined the farmers' effort of producing prawn for global market. Based on the findings elicited in the study it is recommended that there is an immediate need for prawn farming adaptation strategy.

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Forster, Johanna. „Vulnerability of tourism-dependent Caribbean islands to climate change“. Thesis, University of East Anglia, 2010. https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/19103/.

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Mcdougall, Amy. „Sense in sensitivity : assessing species vulnerability to climate change“. Thesis, University of East Anglia, 2013. https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/53455/.

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This thesis investigates the impact of future climate change upon species vulnerability. Reports of shifts in species distributions are already numerous, but the pattern of change is not fully understood. This thesis looks to predict which species are likely to be most at risk under climate change and why? This thesis takes the equation; Vulnerability= Sensitivity + Exposure to better discover which species are most vulnerable to climate change. Additionally, this research explores how mitigation has a role in determining the degree to which species are vulnerable in the future. Determining a specie’s vulnerability to climate change required the creation of values representing each side of the equation, both a measure of sensitivity and exposure. The construction of a sensitivity measure required the creation of a life history and ecological traits database, and required the use of multiple methods of statistical analysis. Exposure was calculated using projections of future suitable climate space created using species distribution model Maxent. To explore the impact of mitigation on species vulnerability exposure was calculated under a range of climate change scenarios. The sensitivity and exposure scores are synthesised into a measure of vulnerability. The result of the equation, Vulnerability= Exposure + Sensitivity, has revealed which Mammal species are most vulnerable; those which will be exposed to a high degree of climate change and which life history and ecological traits make them sensitive. The most vulnerable species are those which are highly exposed and which have ‘slow’ life history traits, are range restricted, or, are climate specialist. The regions in which species are identified as most vulnerable include the Neotropical and Afrotropical zones. Mitigation is found to reduce potential vulnerability with early mitigation being the most beneficial. The deeper understanding gained through this research will help us prioritise species for conservation based on their vulnerability.

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Eisenhauer, Emily. „Socio-ecological Vulnerability to Climate Change in South Florida“. FIU Digital Commons, 2014. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/1269.

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Awareness of extreme high tide flooding in coastal communities has been increasing in recent years, reflecting growing concern over accelerated sea level rise. As a low-lying, urban coastal community with high value real estate, Miami often tops the rankings of cities worldwide in terms of vulnerability to sea level rise. Understanding perceptions of these changes and how communities are dealing with the impacts reveals much about vulnerability to climate change and the challenges of adaptation. This empirical study uses an innovative mixed-methods approach that combines ethnographic observations of high tide flooding, qualitative interviews and analysis of tidal data to reveal coping strategies used by residents and businesses as well as perceptions of sea level rise and climate change, and to assess the relationship between measurable sea levels and perceptions of flooding. I conduct a case study of Miami Beach’s storm water master planning process which included sea level rise projections, one of the first in the nation to do so, that reveals the different and sometimes competing logics of planners, public officials, activists, residents and business interests with regards to climate change adaptation. By taking a deeply contextual account of hazards and adaptation efforts in a local area I demonstrate how this approach can be effective at shedding light on some of the challenges posed by anthropogenic climate change and accelerated rates of sea level rise. The findings highlight challenges for infrastructure planning in low-lying, urban coastal areas, and for individual risk assessment in the context of rapidly evolving discourse about the threat of sea level rise. Recognition of the trade-offs and limits of incremental adaptation strategies point to transformative approaches, at the same time highlighting equity concerns in adaptation governance and planning. This new impact assessment method contributes to the integration of social and physical science approaches to climate change, resulting in improved understanding of socio-ecological vulnerability to environmental change.

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Mendoza, Ponce Alma Virgen. „Vulnerability of biodiversity to land use change and climate change in Mexico“. Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/21701.

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Biodiversity in Mexico is threatened by Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) and Climate Change (CC). Identifying what sites will be most vulnerable to these threats can help to prioritise conservation, mitigation and adaptation strategies and target limited resources. Therefore, the aims of this study are 1) to identify the most vulnerable sites to LUCCs under different socio-economic and CC scenarios, and 2) to assess the vulnerability of endemic and threatened vertebrate species to establish prioritization strategies for biodiversity conservation. Spatially explicit socio-economic scenarios were created at national and subnational level (Chapter 3). National LUCC models were then developed using the DINAMICA EGO software (Chapter 4). These models were run for three future time slices (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) and two contrasting future climate and socio-economic scenarios to determine biodiversity vulnerability (Chapter 5). Vulnerability was estimated by quantifying the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to LUCC and CC. This framework integrates national information about the priority sites of biodiversity conservation and their future extent of natural covers under future socio-economic and climate conditions. Finally, the vulnerability framework was also applied in a regional case-study in three municipalities of southern Mexico (Chapter 6). Results reveal that temperate forest is the most vulnerable ecosystem type in Mexico, followed by natural grasslands and tropical evergreen forests. Agriculture is the driver of this threat, which is projected to expand to feed an increasing population under dryer climatic conditions. More than 40% of endemic and endangered mammals are in places ranking from medium to extremely high vulnerability, followed by the 28% of the amphibians, 25% and 23% for reptiles and birds, respectively. These vertebrates are principally distributed on temperate forests and tropical dry forests. In the regional scale, rain-fed agriculture (RfA) and anthropogenic grasslands are the principal LUCC drivers, threatening 31 species of endangered vertebrates. A local strategy for creating corridors between patches close to rivers from the south to the north of one municipality is supported as conservation priority for the regional biodiversity. This research presents a novel approach for prioritising conservation strategies in highly biodiverse countries using readily available data sources, demonstrated at different spatial and temporal scales.

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Striessnig, Erich, Wolfgang Lutz und Anthony Patt. „Effects of Educational Attainment on Climate Risk Vulnerability“. The Resilience Alliance, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-05252-180116.

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In the context of still uncertain specific effects of climate change in specific locations, this paper examines whether education significantly increases coping capacity with regard to particular climatic changes, and whether it improves the resilience of people to climate risks in general. Our hypothesis is that investment in universal primary and secondary education around the world is the most effective strategy for preparing to cope with the still uncertain dangers associated with future climate. The empirical evidence presented for a cross-country time series of factors associated with past natural disaster fatalities since 1980 in 125 countries confirms this overriding importance of education in reducing impacts. We also present new projections of populations by age, sex, and level of educational attainment to 2050, thus providing an appropriate tool for anticipating societies' future adaptive capacities based on alternative education scenarios associated with different policies. (authors' abstract)

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Woodbury, Mark. Joint Front Range climate change vulnerability study. Denver, CO]: Water Research Foundation, 2012.

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Sundaresan, J., S. Sreekesh, AL Ramanathan, L. Sonnenschein und R. Boojh, Hrsg. Climate Change and Island and Coastal Vulnerability. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-6016-5.

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In Lithuania, like in other countries, climate change causes and will cause changes in natural and anthropogenic environment. The entire transport sector will be impacted, influencing the way it plans, designs, constructs and maintains infrastructure in the future. Roads are already sensitive to current climate variability. If today’s extreme weather events become both more frequent and extreme, so too will the level of disruption that they cause. Thus, roads must be adapted to changing climate conditions. The aim is to ensure resilience, to ensure that roads remain open under extreme weather conditions. The easiest and the most effective economically way is to implement adaptation measures for the new or reconstructed roads. But the existing older roads should be adapted also. The steps required to improve and maintain resilience of roads are definition of climate projections, identification of key roads and their vulnerability, identification and research on technologies for adaptation, preparation of methodologies, establishment of field operational trials. The aim of the research is to review Lithuanian roads in the context of climate change and its consequences. Methodology: climate and associated data collection and review, initial prognoses of the change (in short, medium and long term perspective) of meteorological elements, vulnerability assessment of the study area and the roads. Results: initial recommendations for adaptation action planning.

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Lynn, Kathy, Katharine MacKendrick und Ellen M. Donoghue. Social vulnerability and climate change: synthesis of literature. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.2737/pnw-gtr-838.

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Hudec, Jessica L., Jessica E. Halofsky, David L. Peterson und Joanne J. Ho. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in southwest Washington. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.2737/pnw-gtr-977.

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Luedeling, Eike, Catherine Muthuri und Roeland Kindt. Ecosystem vulnerability to climate change: a literature review. World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.5716/wp13034.pdf.

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Halofsky, Jessica E., und David L. Peterson. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Blue Mountains. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.2737/pnw-gtr-939.

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Halofsky, Jessica E., David L. Peterson und Joanne J. Ho. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in south-central Oregon. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.2737/pnw-gtr-974.

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