Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „Chinese private international law“

Abstract This survey contains materials reflecting the practice of Chinese private international law in 2020. First, regarding changes in the statutory framework of private international law in China, three legislative acts, one administrative regulation on the Unreliable Entity List and ten judicial interpretations of the Supreme People’s Court were adopted or amended in 2020 on a wide range of matters, including conflict of laws, punitive damages, international civil procedure, etc. Second, 11 typical cases involving Chinse courts’ jurisdiction are selected to highlight the development in Chinese private international law, involving standard essential patents, abuse of market dominance, declaration of non-infringement of patent, asymmetric choice of court agreement and other matters. Third, nine cases on choice of law questions relating, in particular, to habitual residence, rights in rem, matrimonial property regimes and ascertainment of foreign law, are examined. Fourth, five cases involving anti-suit injunction or anti-enforcement injunction are reported and one introduced in detail. Fifth, the first occasion for on international judicial assistance of extracting DNA, as well as three representative cases on the recognition and enforcement of foreign judgments, are discussed. The Statistics of international judicial assistance cases in China is first released in this survey. Finally, this survey also covers five recent decisions illustrating Chinese courts’ pro-arbitration attitude towards the uncertainty brought about by contractual clauses referring to both litigation and arbitration.

Abstract This paper contains materials reflecting the practice of Chinese practice in private international law in 2018. First, the statistics of the foreign-related civil or commercial cases decided by Chinese courts is extracted from the Report on the Work of the Supreme People’s Court (SPC) in 2018. Second, the SPC judicial interpretation concerning the enforcement of arbitral awards is translated, and the interpretation reflects a pro-arbitration tendency in Chinese courts. Third, six cases, on the validity of a choice of court clause, the conflict of laws issues regarding personal injury on the high seas, visitation rights and uncontested divorces, as well as the recognition of foreign judgments, are noted. Fourth, the paper introduces a case embodying the “one-stop” international commercial dispute resolution mechanism in Chinese courts. Finally, the paper also covers six representative decisions regarding the parties’ status, the presumption of the parties’ intention as to choice of law, and the validity of arbitration agreements.

L'insécurité juridique se rencontre à plusieurs étapes dans le processus de détermination de la loi applicable aux contrats internationaux par le juge dans les systèmes juridiques français, américain et chinois. En matière de conflit de lois, la sécurité juridique est appréciée principalement en fonction de deux considérations, d'une part, la prévisibilité juridique et, d'autre part, la protection des parties faibles. La prévisibilité juridique vise particulièrement les contrats égalitaires et la protection des parties faibles s'adresse exclusivement aux contrats inégalitaires. En dépit des efforts considérables réalisés par la France, les États-Unis et la Chine, l'insécurité juridique demeure sous trois aspects. D'abord, les règles de conflit sont éparpillées dans plusieurs instruments juridiques en France et en Chine. Aux États-Unis, la matière étant à peine codifiée, chaque juge applique sa propre règle de conflit. Ensuite, le contenu des règles de conflit de ces trois pays est incomplet, désuet et complexe. En effet, les juges américains appliquent les mêmes règles de conflit depuis plus de 50 ans. Ces règles sont, par ailleurs, complexes et ne répondent plus aux besoins du marché international actuel. Nonobstant la nouvelle réforme du droit international privé chinois, la matière contractuelle n'est que brièvement traitée. Seuls quelques articles lui sont consacrés. À l'opposé, le droit international privé français est actuellement un des plus complets et modernes. Même si, certaines règles peuvent être très complexes voire inutiles. Et enfin mais non des moindres, la mise en œuvre de ces règles pose également difficulté. Ainsi, l'application d'une même règle peut désigner des lois différentes. De plus, la liberté laissée à certains juges leur permet soit d'écarter la loi d'autonomie soit de désigner la loi de leur choix en manipulant les règles. Cette insécurité juridique peut être réduite voire résolue par deux moyens. D'une part, en prévoyant une clause d'electio juris et une clause d'electio fori dans le contrat international. Et d'autre part, par l'adoption d'une convention internationale qui non seulement unifierai les règles de conflit de lois de ces trois pays mais éventuellement celles des autres pays
When determining the law applicable to international contracts in the French, American and Chinese legal systems, legal practitioners undeniably encounter legal uncertainty at several stages. With regards to conflict-of-law rules, the determination of legal certainty is primarily undermined by the considerations of : - legal predictability and - the protection of weaker contracting parties. Legal predictability is particularly considered when dealing with contracts underpinned by relationships of relatively equal bargaining power whereas the protection of weaker contracting parties is considered exclusively when dealing with unfair contracts. Nevertheless, despite considerable efforts made by these three countries, legal uncertainty still persists, especially in three separate areas. First, conflict-of-law rules are scattered across several legal instruments in the French and Chinese jurisdictions. In the United States, the subject matter being largely uncodified judges apply their own rules when deciding on conflict-of-law. Second, the substance of conflict-of-law rules in these three countries is incomplete, obsolete and complex. American judges who have been applying the same conflict rules for over 50 years are now faced with rules which, in addition to their complexity, no longer meet the needs of the current international market. Notwithstanding new reforms in Chinese private international law, attention to the contractual matters is albeit brief, with only a few articles devoted to that particular topic. In contrast, French private international law is currently seen as one of the most complete and modern existing laws on the subject matter. However, some rules are very complex, if not unnecessary. And third, the implementation of these same rules can also result in enigmatic conundrums. The enforcement of a rule can point to different laws. Besides, the discretion conferred to some judges bestows upon the latter a significant degree of freedom. Consequently, these judges have the power to dismiss the law of autonomy in several cases. Furthermore, in the absence of choice, the scope of interpretation is much greater to enable them to designate a law of their choice to reach a judicial decision. This element of legal uncertainty can be removed, if not reduced, in two ways, namely: - by providing for an electio juris clause as well as an electio fori clause in the international contract or - by the adoption of an international convention unifying the conflict-of-laws rules of these three countries, in the hope that the same convention could eventually be extended to all other countries

This thesis seeks to determine how remedies inter-relate with the European rules on international private law. The thesis is broadly separated into two Parts, the first Part discussing the relationship between remedies and the general part of European international private law, and the second Part discussing the relationship between remedies and the specific parts of European international private law. From this analysis, three threads can be drawn. First, primary right, secondary right and the court order vindicating them are so closely related that, ideally, the same law ought to apply to all. They form a unit which should remain unbroken. Second, the distinction between substantive and ancillary rights is of crucial importance for remedies in the context of both jurisdiction and choice of law. Ancillary rights are those which arise by virtue of the trial process itself, whereas substantive rights are, or are perceived to be, created prior to the trial. The orthodox jurisdictional and choice of law rules only apply to substantive rights. Ancillary rights have their own, separate, rules. With one exception, the only court with jurisdiction over those ancillary rights is the court with jurisdiction over the substantive right to which they are ancillary. Furthermore, the lex fori must be applied to determine the nature of the ancillary right. Third, there exists a rule of exclusion which is of crucial importance for remedies in the context of both the enforcement of foreign judgments and choice of law. This rule of exclusion applies where the application of the foreign court order, whether applied by virtue of enforcing a foreign judgment, or applied by virtue of applying a foreign governing law under the choice of law process, would be too inconvenient for the forum court's machinery. Under such circumstances, the forum court can disapply the foreign law and substitute the closest order it can from its own legal system.

It is an axiom of the conflict of laws that one state will not enforce the revenue, penal, or ‘other public’ laws of another. This thesis shall criticise this position, arguing that these exclusionary principles should be replaced with a general principle of enforceability, subject to the control of public policy. It shall begin by sketching the general landscape of the exclusion of foreign law in Anglo-Scots international private law. Thereafter, a detailed account shall be given – for each of the revenue, penal, and ‘other public’ law rules – of the historical development of those exclusions, and their present scope of operation. This exposition provides a foundation for a critical examination of those rules.

The Commercial Court in London is frequently dealing with applications for a freezing injunction. The vast majority of academic literature and court decisions directly or indirectly adopt the view that freezing injunctions have stood the test of time and are so frequently granted in commercial litigation that there is no need for any serious concern about their scope, let alone the need to identify and question the legitimacy of the justifications for their existence. Contrary to the traditional view, this thesis has identified equipage equality as the primary function of freezing injunctions. This recognition that freezing injunctions seek to establish a level-playing field in litigation has led the author to conclude that the current scope of the relief is excessively claimant-friendly and involves illegitimate interference with the sovereignty of foreign states. Taking into account the tactical reasons for seeking a freezing injunction, the author challenges the current interpretation of the substantive preconditions for granting the relief. Their current interpretation does not strike a fair balance between the interests of the parties. The author argues that these concerns are exacerbated by the current international scope of freezing injunctions due to the insufficient regard for the principles of public international law. The encroachment on the jurisdiction of foreign states undermines equipage equality by enabling claimants to make multiple applications for interim relief in respect of the same assets. In the light of the above, the author has sought to make a range of proposals to restrict the scope of freezing injunctions with the aim of bringing the relief in line with equipage equality.

The arrest of ships is a truly Private International Law (PIL) institution. Its main rationale is to provide a useful device for international commerce and to compensate for the difficulty of enforcing judgments abroad. The arrest of ships is the typical provisional measure used in maritime claims; but it is as typical for maritime claims as it is atypical as a provisional measure. Arrest of ships is also a typical jurisdictional basis in the maritime sphere; but outside maritime claims it is nowadays completely atypical as a jurisdictional basis, i.e. arrest of non -maritime property to found jurisdiction is regarded as unacceptably exorbitant. Moreover, arrest of ships is a means of security, but its security- related effects are differently understood in comparative law. What is it about the arrest of ships that makes it so distinctive, particularly from a PIL perspective? This thesis analyses the theme in English and Scots law in the light of the international Conventions in the field. It examines the three main functions of arrest of ships, i.e. its protective function, its security function and its jurisdictional function, within the three classical domains of PIL, i.e. applicable law, jurisdiction, and the recognition and enforcement of foreign judgments. It looks at the role of the lex fori; its impact on characterization issues; its subtleties when applied qua lex causae; and its so often too far -reaching scope when applied qua lex fori. In practice its influence is unhelpful and poses a drawback to the uniformity sought by the international community. Its downside is apparent in English law where the frame in which arrest of ships currently develops is the action in rem, and where the impossibility to separate the two has complicated matters in various ways. In Scots law, due to the fact that arrestment of ships pertains to the broader law of diligence, the distinction between the different functions of the arrest of ships is clearer. Furthermore, recent law reform has brought the arrestment of ships in Scotland into line with the latest international trends in the sphere of provisional and protective measures. Central to this thesis is the jurisdictional function of arrest of ships. Forum arresti, the paradigmatic forum selection criterion in English and Scots law, has survived as a specific jurisdictional basis for maritime claims in the process of Europeanization of PIL. This thesis establishes that forum arresti in the case of arrest of ships is a cooperative forum. It advances the dynamic objective of PIL, i.e. the juridical continuity of legal relations across national borders. In this context, the conceptual distinction between jurisdiction on the merits and jurisdiction for the sole purpose of interim relief becomes paramount. Ultimately, the whole analysis shows that the combination of civilian legacy, common law creativity and international attempts for uniformity has profoundly affected the nature of arrest of ships; not only in England and in Scotland, but, through their influence on international Conventions, in the entire shipping world.

The aim of this chapter is to point out the connection between mobility and cultural activities of Chinese returnee opera students. Many Chinese students in Italy attend cultural and artistic university courses. They may be considered significant in analyzing Chinese reverse migration from Italy. The examined connection involves several dynamics, including artistic aspects, historical reasons, social and economic changes, public policies and consumerism styles. Mobility and cultural production may be analyzed through both a structural and imaginative dimension. The structural dimension is composed of international agreements, global mobility law conditions, social and economic changes, and private investments in education to accumulate cultural capital that produce (or reproduce) certain social structures and experiences. On the other hand, the imaginative dimension is shaped by the lifestyle adopted by middle class families, including their work activities and cultural consumption. Returnee students are both the subjects who promote this process and the object of this dynamic. Chinese singers of Italian opera, upon graduating university in Italy, join the possibilities of the work field—in Bourdieu’s perspective—which is formed by the two aforementioned dimensions. Finally, perceived differences between Italy and China in terms of musical technique and culture are reworked according to contemporary cultural policies.

Personal Information Protection Law of the People's Republic of China, which came into effect in November of 2021, formally established the legal procedures concerning informed consent in the collection of personal information. The law specifies that personal biometric information is officially considered sensitive personal information. It imposes more stringent requirements for its collection and processing in order to ensure that the information rights of the information subjects remain protected. Based on the understanding of technical risks involved in securing personal biometric information, as well as the inherent risks of information privacy in general, this paper will systematically review the current rules concerning informed consent in the collection of personal biometric information as stipulated by Chinese laws and regulations, as well as other national standards. Taking existing issues as guidance, we will also explore the compliance and regulation of the commercial use of personal biometric information under the informed consent regulations by determining the most common instances in which these rules were violated in practice.

Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) researchers play an important role in the ethics and governance of AI, including through their work, advocacy, and choice of employment. Nevertheless, this influential group's attitudes are not well understood, undermining our ability to discern consensuses or disagreements between AI/ML researchers. To examine these researchers' views, we conducted a survey of those who published in two top AI/ML conferences (N = 524). We compare these results with those from a 2016 survey of AI/ML researchers and a 2018 survey of the US public. We find that AI/ML researchers place high levels of trust in international organizations and scientific organizations to shape the development and use of AI in the public interest; moderate trust in most Western tech companies; and low trust in national militaries, Chinese tech companies, and Facebook. While the respondents were overwhelmingly opposed to AI/ML researchers working on lethal autonomous weapons, they are less opposed to researchers working on other military applications of AI, particularly logistics algorithms. A strong majority of respondents think that AI safety research should be prioritized more and a majority that ML institutions should conduct pre-publication review to assess potential harms. Being closer to the technology itself, AI/ML researchers are well placed to highlight new risks and develop technical solutions, so this novel data has broad relevance. The findings should help to improve how researchers, private sector executives, and policymakers think about regulations, governance frameworks, guiding principles, and national and international governance strategies for AI.

My contribution deals with the issue concerning the question arising on the applicable law in and after the transition period set in the Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community. The aim of this contribution is to analyze how the English and European laws simultaneously influence one another. This analyzation will lead to the prognosis of the impact Brexit will have on the applicable English law before English courts and the courts of the states of the European Union. The main key question is the role of lex fori in English law. Will English law tend to return to common law rules post-Brexit, and prefer the lex fori?

The article deals with the subject, system and sources of trade (entrepreneurial) law in the aspect of the international space. The author of the article notes a significant practical connection between international business and international private law, names their main features as a dispositive method of legal regulation, independence and equality of subjects of civil legal relations, the presence of corresponding rights and obligations among the subjects of such relations, a pronounced property nature of the civil liability of subjects.

China is the subject of Western criticism for its supposed disregard of the rules-based international order. Such a charge implies that China is unilateralist. The aim in this study is to explain how China does in fact have a multilateral approach to international relations. China’s core idea of a community of shared future of humanity shows that it is aware of the need for a universal foundation for world order. The Research Report focuses on explaining the Chinese approach to multilateralism from its own internal perspective, with Chinese philosophy and history shaping its view of the nature of rules, rights, law, and of institutions which should shape relationships. A number of case studies show how the Chinese perspectives are implemented, such as with regards to development finance, infrastructure projects (especially the Belt and Road Initiative), shaping new international organisations (such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank), climate change, cyber-regulation and Chinese participation in the United Nations in the field of human rights and peacekeeping. Looking at critical Western opinion of this activity, we find speculation around Chinese motives. This is why a major emphasis is placed on a hermeneutic approach to China which explains how it sees its intentions. The heart of the Research Report is an exploration of the underlying Chinese philosophy of rulemaking, undertaken in a comparative perspective to show how far it resembles or differs from the Western philosophy of rulemaking.

The crossover between cybercrime and cyberwarfare has intensified in recent years, particularly against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and mounting tensions of China and Russia with the United States. This paper delves into specific cyber incidents that employ cybercrime tactics with cyberwarfare objectives, allegedly involving Chinese, Russian or US actors. It examines responses within and among the private sector, the public sector and international forums. Although not directly involved in all of the cases, the European Union (EU) was impacted in a variety of ways, both as a result of spillover effects and intentional targeting. Drawing upon an examination of cyber incidents, this paper highlights how emerging trends in actors, means and responses present escalatory risks for the EU while emphasizing the pressing need to bolster cybersecurity measures.

This paper analyzes the behavior of a long list of economic variables during episodes of recovery from an economic collapse. A set of stylized facts is proposed so as to depict what in this work is called \saygrowth recoveries. Through different estimation techniques, it is inferred under which conditions and policies the likelihood of experiencing a growth recovery increases. The results of the paper indicate that collapses tend to occur in countries with high dependence on natural resource rents, macroeconomic mismanagement, low levels of democratic accountability and rule of law and high levels of conflict. Recoveries, on the other hand, tend to be longer than collapses and are more likely to occur in contexts of: improved external conditions, less natural resource rents, balanced fiscal accounts, where the exchange rate corrects but within a more fixed exchange rate regime and a more restricted financial account, and where there are: rebounds in private consumption, increases in international trade and improvements on property rights.

This report aims to present findings of the research conducted in Poland within the Work Package 1 of the Welcoming Spaces project, namely “Welcoming spaces” in relation to economic viability, social wellbeing and political stability in shrinking regions. The main aim of the mentioned research was to examine how welcoming initiatives are organised and implemented in the selected shrinking localities in Poland. In particular, the creation of welcoming initiatives concerning social wellbeing, economic viability and political stability was assessed. To accomplish this objective, five localities were selected purposefully, namely Łomża (city with powiat status) and Zambrów (urban commune) in Podlaskie Voivodeship and Łuków (town), Wohyń (rural commune) and Zalesie (rural commune) in Lubelskie Voivodeship. Within these localities, 23 welcoming initiatives were identified, out of which 12 were chosen for in-depth research. The field research was conducted in all five localities between March and December 2021. During this period, the SGH Warsaw School of Economics team conducted 43 interviews with institutional stakeholders (representatives of local governments, schools, non-governmental organisations – NGOs, religious organisations and private companies) and individuals (both migrant newcomers and native residents). In addition, local government representatives were surveyed to compare their policies, measures and stances toward migrant inhabitants and local development. The research was also complemented with the literature review, policy documents analysis, and local media outlets discourse analysis. Until February 2022 and the outbreak of war in Ukraine, welcoming spaces in Poland were scarce and spatially limited to the big cities like Warsaw, Cracow, Wrocław, Gdańsk, Lublin or Białystok, governed by liberal mayors and city councils open to accept migrants and treat them as a valuable human asset of the city community. However, in smaller cities, towns and rural areas, especially in shrinking regions, welcoming spaces have been highly conditioned by welcoming initiatives carried out mainly by civil society organisations (CSOs). It is very likely that the war in Ukraine will completely change the situation we write about in this country report. However, this crisis and its consequences were not the subjects of our desk research and fieldwork in Poland, which ended in December 2021. As of late July 2022, the number of border crossings from Ukraine to Poland is almost 5 million and the number of forced migrants registered for temporary protection or similar national protection scheme concern 1.3 million people (UNHCR 2022). However, the number of those who have decided to stay in Poland is estimated at around 1.5 million (Duszczyk and Kaczmarczyk 2022). Such a large influx of forced migrants from Ukraine within five months already affects the demographic situation in the country and access to public services, mainly in large and medium-size cities1 . Depending on the development of events in Ukraine and the number of migrants who will decide to stay in Poland in the following months, the functioning of the domestic labour market, education, health service, and social assistance may significantly change. The following months may also bring new changes in the law relating to foreigners, aimed at their easier integration in the country. Access to housing in cities is already a considerable challenge, which may result in measures to encourage foreigners to settle in smaller towns and rural areas. Given these dynamic changes in the migration situation of the country, as well as in the area of admission and integration activities, Poland seems to be slowly becoming one great welcoming space. It is worth mentioning that the main institutional actors in this area have been NGOs and local governments since the beginning of the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine. An important supporting and coordinating role has also been played by international organisations such as the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), which launched its inter-agency Regional Refugee Response Plan (RRRP) in early spring to address the most urgent needs of the population of forced migrants and their host countries in this part of Europe (UNHCR 2022a; UNHCR 2022b; UNHCR 2022c). Based on the number of newly emerged welcoming initiatives and the pace of this emergence, they will soon become an everyday reality for every municipality in Poland. Therefore, it is difficult to find more up-todate circumstances for the “Welcoming Spaces” project objective, which is “to rethink ways forward in creating inclusive space in such a way that it will contribute firstly to the successful integration of migrants in demographically and economically shrinking areas and simultaneously to the revitalization of these places”. Furthermore, the initiatives we selected as case studies for our research should be widely promoted and treated as a model of migrants’ inclusion into the new communities. On the other hand, we need to emphasize here that the empirical material was collected between March and December 2021, before the outbreak of war in Ukraine. As such, it does not reflect the new reality in Poland

Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.