Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „Behavior scenario“

We investigated prosocial behavior in different envy conditions. Participants (N = 118) responded to partners' requests for help after taking part in either a control scenario or scenarios where they felt that their partner was envious of them based on their performance (input), a reward (output), or both (input–output). Results showed significantly different levels of prosocial behavior, with this being highest in the output envy scenario and lowest in the input–output envy scenario. Effects of benign and malicious envy were also assessed across scenarios. In the input and output scenarios, malicious envy positively predicted prosocial behaviors and benign envy negatively predicted prosocial behaviors, whereas the opposite was true in the input–output scenario. Our results imply that employees experiencing benign envy can be motivated to improve their own abilities and performance, whereas perceiving malicious envy is likely to elicit prosocial behavior by the envied person toward envious employees.

Despite numerous studies on general human–robot interactions, in the context of transportation, automated vehicle (AV)–human driver interaction is not a well-studied subject. These vehicles have fundamentally different decision-making logic compared with human drivers and the driving interactions between AVs and humans can potentially change traffic flow dynamics. Accordingly, through an experimental study, this paper investigates whether there is a difference between human–human and human–AV interactions on the road. This study focuses on car-following behavior and conducted several car-following experiments utilizing Texas A&M University’s automated Chevy Bolt. Utilizing NGSIM US-101 dataset, two scenarios for a platoon of three vehicles were considered. For both scenarios, the leader of the platoon follows a series of speed profiles extracted from the NGSIM dataset. The second vehicle in the platoon can be either another human-driven vehicle (scenario A) or an AV (scenario B). Data is collected from the third vehicle in the platoon to characterize the changes in driving behavior when following an AV. A data-driven and a model-based approach were used to identify possible changes in driving behavior from scenario A to scenario B. The findings suggested there is a statistically significant difference between human drivers’ behavior in these two scenarios and human drivers felt more comfortable following the AV. Simulation results also revealed the importance of capturing these changes in human behavior in microscopic simulation models of mixed driving environments.

The use of the unecological removal research scenario in recent years has been forced because of technological limitations. However, with the advent of three-dimensional modeling programs and high-fidelity graphic systems, the ability to accurately represent real-world situations in computer-generated worlds has become easier, cheaper, and more realistic. A time-to-contact (TTC) experiment is reported in which the manner of removing an approaching vehicle from the environment was manipulated. One scenario, the disappearance condition, featured a traditional, instantaneous removal of a vehicle. The purpose of this research was to determine if a more ecological research scenario, one in which the approaching vehicle becomes occluded by a naturally occurring object (the occlusion condition), influences a driver’s ability to estimate TTC accurately. The available visual information was essentially equivalent in both scenarios. If the level of ecological validity has no effect on estimates of TTC, estimates of TTC between the two scenarios would be expected to be similar. Results, however, showed estimates with 14 percent greater accuracy in the occlusion condition compared with the disappearance condition, implying that researchers have been using a research scenario that biases estimates of TTC. Further, the results of the present findings imply that there are processes that occur in real world settings that have not being accounted for in previous TTC research.

Emergent behavior is an important issue in distributed systems' design. Detecting and removing emergent behavior during the design phase will lead to huge savings in deployment costs of such systems. An effective approach for the design of distributed systems is to describe system requirements using scenarios. A scenario, commonly known as a message sequence chart or a sequence diagram, is a temporal sequence of messages sent between system components. However, scenario-based specifications are prone to subtle deficiencies with respect to analysis and validation known as incompleteness and partial description. In this research, a method for detecting emergent behavior of scenario-based specification is proposed. The method is demonstrated and verified using a mine-sweeping robot as an example. Furthermore it has been demonstrated in this paper that scenario-based specifications can be used in agile software development and that the proposed methodologies in this research can be utilized effectively in agile approaches.

Bidding decision is not only a science, an art, but also a game. The more intense the competition, the more important the game. In practice, there is the possibility of collaboration between bidders and even hidden competing behaviors such as bidding rigging. In this study, the optimized low-price bid winning method was discussed, and the characteristics and application of the bidding game under the copetition scenarios were studied. The results show the following: (1) Under the copetition scenario, the rational bidding behavior of bidders will deviate according to the different information advantages, and there is a game of making bidding strategy decisions according to the competitive scenario. (2) There is a close functional relationship between the winning bid result and the evaluation elimination factor, the number of bidders, and the number of bidders who operate bidding rigging. (3) Based on the quotation strategy matrix modeling, it enables the quantitative decision making bid amount, offer score, and deviation risk. This study enriches the theory of quota decision in copetition scenarios and is enlightening for similar business behavior game decisions.

Information seeking and information avoidance are the mechanisms humans natural used for coping with uncertainties and adapting to environmental stressors. Uncertainties are rooted in knowledge gaps. In social sciences, the relationship between knowledge gaps and perceived risk have received little attention. A review of the information science literature suggests that few studies have been devoted to the investigation of the role of this relationship in motivating information-seeking behavior. As an effort to address the lack of theory building in the field of information science, this study attempts to construct a model of information seeking under risk (MISR) by examining the relationships among perceived risk, knowledge gap, fear arousal, risk propensity, personal relevance, and deprivation and interest curiosity as antecedents to motivation to seek information. An experimental approach and a scenario-based survey method are employed to design the study. Partial least square structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) analysis was conducted to test the relationships in the proposed model. Perceived risk was found to be a highly significant predictor of information seeking in moderately high-risk situations. Similarly, personal relevant has a significant negative effect on perceived risk and its interaction with knowledge gap motivates information seeking.

Robotic assistants have inspired numerous books and science fiction movies. In the real world, these kinds of devices are a growing need in amongst the elderly, who while life continue requiring more assistance. While life expectancy is increasing, life quality is not necessarily doing so. Thus, we may find ourselves and our loved ones being dependent and needing another person to perform the most basic tasks, which has a strong psychological impact. Accordingly, assistive robots may be the definitive tool to give more quality of life by empowering dependent people and extending their independent living. Assisting users to perform daily activities requires adapting to them and their needs, as they might not be able to adapt to the robot. This thesis tackles adaptation and personalization issues through user preferences. We 'focus on physical tasks that involve close contact, as these present interesting challenges, and are of great importance for he user. Therefore, three tasks are mainly used throughout the thesis: assistive feeding, shoe fitting, and jacket dressing. We first describe a framework for robot behavior adaptation that illustrates how robots should be personalized for and by end- users or their assistants. Using this framework, non-technical users determine how !he robot should behave. Then, we define the concept of preference for assistive robotics scenarios and establish a taxonomy, which includes hierarchies and groups of preferences, grounding definitions and concepts. We then show how the preferences in the taxonomy are used with Al planning systems to adapt the robot behavior to the preferences of the user obtained from simple questions. Our algorithms allow for long-term adaptations as well as to cope with misinformed user models. We further integrate the methods with low-level motion primitives that provide a more robust adaptation and behavior while lowering the number of needed actions and demonstrations. Moreover, we perform a deeper analysis in Planning and preferences with the introduction of new algorithms to provide preference suggestions in planning domains. The thesis then concludes with a user study that evaluates the use of the preferences in the three real assistive robotics scenarios. The experiments show a clear understanding of the preferences of users, who were able to assess the impact of their preferences on the behavior of the robot. In summary, we provide tools and algorithms to design the robotic assistants of the future. Assistants that should be able to adapt to the assisted user needs and preferences, just as human assistants do nowadays.
Els assistents robòtics han inspirat nombrosos llibres i pel·lícules de ciència-ficció al llarg de la història. Però tornant al món real, aquest tipus de dispositius s'estan tornant una necessitat per a una societat que envelleix a un ritme ràpid i que, per tant, requerirà més i més assistència. Mentre l'esperança de vida augmenta, la qualitat de vida no necessàriament ho fa. Per tant, ens podem trobar a nosaltres mateixos i als nostres estimats en una situació de dependència, necessitant una altra persona per poder fer les tasques més bàsiques, cosa que té un gran impacte psicològic. En conseqüència, els robots assistencials poden ser l'eina definitiva per proporcionar una millor qualitat de vida empoderant els usuaris i allargant la seva capacitat de viure independentment. L'assistència a persones per realitzar tasques diàries requereix adaptar-se a elles i les seves necessitats, donat que aquests usuaris no poden adaptar-se al robot. En aquesta tesi, abordem el problema de l'adaptació i la personalització d'un robot mitjançant preferències de l'usuari. Ens centrem en tasques físiques, que involucren contacte amb la persona, per les seves dificultats i importància per a l'usuari. Per aquest motiu, la tesi utilitzarà principalment tres tasques com a exemple: donar menjar, posar una sabata i vestir una jaqueta. Comencem definint un marc (framework) per a la personalització del comportament del robot que defineix com s'han de personalitzar els robots per usuaris i pels seus assistents. Amb aquest marc, usuaris sense coneixements tècnics són capaços de definir com s'ha de comportar el robot. Posteriorment definim el concepte de preferència per a robots assistencials i establim una taxonomia que inclou jerarquies i grups de preferències, els quals fonamenten les definicions i conceptes. Després mostrem com les preferències de la taxonomia s'utilitzen amb sistemes planificadors amb IA per adaptar el comportament del robot a les preferències de l'usuari, que s'obtenen mitjançant preguntes simples. Els nostres algorismes permeten l'adaptació a llarg termini, així com fer front a models d'usuari mal inferits. Aquests mètodes són integrats amb primitives a baix nivell que proporcionen una adaptació i comportament més robusts a la mateixa vegada que disminueixen el nombre d'accions i demostracions necessàries. També fem una anàlisi més profunda de l'ús de les preferències amb planificadors amb la introducció de nous algorismes per fer suggeriments de preferències en dominis de planificació. La tesi conclou amb un estudi amb usuaris que avalua l'ús de les preferències en les tres tasques assistencials. Els experiments demostren un clar enteniment de les preferències per part dels usuaris, que van ser capaços de discernir quan les seves preferències eren utilitzades. En resum, proporcionem eines i algorismes per dissenyar els assistents robòtics del futur. Uns assistents que haurien de ser capaços d'adaptar-se a les preferències i necessitats de l'usuari que assisteixen, tal com els assistents humans fan avui en dia.

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Ciências Exatas, Departamento de Ciência da Computação, 2018.
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES).
Sistemas concorrentes enfrentam uma ameaça à sua confiabilidade em comportamentos emergentes, os quais não são incluídos na especificação, mas podem acontecer durante o tempo de execução. Quando sistemas concorrentes são modelados a base de cenários, é possível detectar estes comportamentos emergentes como cenários implícitos que, analogamente, são cenários inesperados que podem acontecer devido à natureza concorrente do sistema. Até agora, o processo de lidar com cenários implícitos pode exigir tempo e esforço significativos do usuário, pois eles são detectados e tratados um a um. Nesta dissertação, uma nova metodologia é proposta para lidar com vários cenários implícitos de cada vez, encontrando comportamentos comuns entre eles. Além disso, propomos uma nova maneira de agrupar estes comportamentos em famílias utilizando uma técnica de agrupamento usando o algoritmo de Smith-Waterman como uma medida de similaridade. Desta forma, permitimos a remoção de vários cenários implícitos com uma única correção, diminuindo o tempo e o esforço necessários para alcançar maior confiabilidade do sistema. Um total de 1798 cenários implícitos foram coletados em sete estudos de caso, dos quais 14 famílias de comportamentos comuns foram definidas. Consequentemente, apenas 14 restrições foram necessárias para resolver todos os cenários implícitos coletados coletados, aplicando nossa abordagem. Estes resultados suportam a validade e eficácia da nossa metodologia.
Concurrent systems face a threat to their reliability in emergent behaviors, which are not included in the specification but can happen during runtime. When concurrent systems are modeled in a scenario-based manner, it is possible to detect emergent behaviors as implied scenarios (ISs) which, analogously, are unexpected scenarios that can happen due to the concurrent nature of the system. Until now, the process of dealing with ISs can demand significant time and effort from the user, as they are detected and dealt with in a one by one basis. In this paper, a new methodology is proposed to deal with various ISs at a time, by finding Common Behaviors (CBs) among them. Additionally, we propose a novel way to group CBs into families utilizing a clustering technique using the Smith- Waterman algorithm as a similarity measure. Thus allowing the removal of multiple ISs with a single fix, decreasing the time and effort required to achieve higher system reliability. A total of 1798 ISs were collected across seven case studies, from which 14 families of CBs were defined. Consequently, only 14 constraints were needed to resolve all collected ISs, applying our approach. These results support the validity and effectiveness of our methodology.

This thesis encompasses an investigation of the behaviour of concrete frame structure under localised fire scenarios by implementing a constitutive model using finite-element computer program. The investigation phase included properties of material at elevated temperature, description of computer program, thermal and structural analyses. Transient thermal properties of material have been employed in this study to achieve reasonable results. The finite-element computer package of ANSYS is utilized in the present analyses to examine the effect of fire on the concrete frame under five various fire scenarios. In addition, a report of full-scale BRE Cardington concrete building designed to Eurocode2 and BS8110 subjected to realistic compartment fire is also presented. The transient analyses of present model included additional specific heat to the base value of dry concrete at temperature 100°C and 200°C. The combined convective-radiation heat transfer coefficient and transient thermal expansion have also been considered in the analyses. For the analyses with the transient strains included, the constitutive model based on empirical formula in a full thermal strain-stress model proposed by Li and Purkiss (2005) is employed. Comparisons between the models with and without transient strains included are also discussed. Results of present study indicate that the behaviour of complete structure is significantly different from the behaviour of individual isolated members based on current design methods. Although the current tabulated design procedures are conservative when the entire building performance is considered, it should be noted that the beneficial and detrimental effects of thermal expansion in complete structures should be taken into account. Therefore, developing new fire engineering methods from the study of complete structures rather than from individual isolated member behaviour is essential.

The diploma thesis is focused on the creation of a control interface for a polygon simulating the electrical distribution network of the Czech Republic, where communication between substations is realized by IEC 60870-5-104 protocol. The theoretical part of the thesis explains the basic principles, properties and possibilities of communication standards IEC 60870 and IEC 61850. The next part is focused on the actual implementation and subsequent implementation of the control interface, including the implementation of the IEC 61850-80-1 module for data transfer between the mentioned standards. The last part describes the created behavior scenarios or the analysis of communication itself.

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Práticas em gestão de projetos (GP), apesar de amplamente difundidas, utilizadas e pesquisadas, não garantem o desempenho (sucesso) do projeto em suas entregas em tempo e custos conforme planejamento. Observa-se que, apesar do uso extensivo de práticas de GP, falhas em relação ao atendimento do cronograma e orçamento são amplamente relatadas. Portanto, este trabalho tem como objetivo principal analisar a influência das práticas de gestão de projetos e do objetivo de desempenho no Comportamento de Cidadania Organizacional (OCB) da equipe de projetos. As dimensões que compuseram o OCB foram: Ajuda, Iniciativa e Compliance. Para testar a relação entre os fatores de práticas de GP (incipientes ou avançados) e objetivo de desempenho (normal ou desafiador) no comportamento da equipe foi utilizada a metodologia do experimento baseado em cenários (SBRP experiment). A amostra contou com 216 alunos de graduação e pós-graduação em administração. O estudo mostrou que a utilização de práticas em gestão de projetos não influenciou o Comportamento de Cidadania Organizacional da equipe de projetos. Entretanto, o objetivo de desempenho nas dimensões de tempo e custos influenciou o Comportamento Cidadão da equipe de projetos. Além desses resultados, a pesquisa mostrou que características pessoais, como experiência em liderar projetos, influenciou a propensão em aumento do comportamento cidadão mediante uma remuneração adicional. Como contribuição adicional este estudo mostra que existem diferenças de resultados nos diferentes grupos de respondentes (alunos de graduação e pós-graduação em administração), conforme encontrado em outros estudos. A utilização do experimento também foi um diferencial metodológico, em virtude de sua ainda baixa utilização em gestão de operações. Finalmente, este estudo também identificou as principais práticas utilizadas na gestão de projetos.
Practices in project management (PM), although widely disseminated, utilized and researched, do not guaranteee the project performance (success) in their deliveries on time and costs as planned. It is observed that, despite the extensive use of PM practices, failures to meet the schedule and budget are widely reported. Thus, this thesis aims to analyze the influence of PM practices and performance targets on the project team's Organizational Citizenship Behavior (OCB). The dimensions that composed OCB were: Help, Initiative and Compliance. To test the relationship between the factors of PM practices (incipient or advanced) and performance targets (ordinary or challenging) in team behavior, the scenario-based role-playing experiment (SBRP experiment) was used, as research methodology. The sample consisted of 216 undergraduate and post graduate students in business administration. The research showed that the use of practices in project management did not influence the project team’s Organizational Citizenship Behavior (OCB). However, performance targets in time and costs influenced the project team’s OCB. In addition to these results, the research showed that personal characteristics, such as experience as project manager, influenced the propensity for increasing OCB based on additional payment. As an additional contribution this study shows that there are differences in the results for different groups of respondents (undergraduate and post graduate students in business administration), as found in other studies. The use of the SBRP experiment was also a methodological advantage, seeing that is has not been widely used in operations management. Finally, this study also identified key practices in project management.

This chapter introduces a new way to think about the evolution of behavioral sex differences, one that contrasts with the classical evolutionary view. The classical scenario—sex as destiny—holds that key sex differences in behavior are fixed traits of an individual, because innate sex “roles” that evolved in concert with morphology and genes are “the blueprints” for expressed behavior. Mating theory (Gowaty & Hubbell, 2009) shows that such genetically deterministic behavior is often maladaptive, meaning that individuals with fixed behavior are most likely selected against. In this new theory, whenever environments vary, the most evolutionarily successful individuals will be those who are flexible in their behavior. On this view, individuals’ behavior—regardless of membership in a genetically defined or anatomically defined sex category—is always “becoming,” sometimes behaving in ways we consider “female typical” and sometimes in ways we consider “male typical.” Thinking this way provides a new lens through which to view linkages between research in biology and in psychology.

Ecologists now recognize that the dynamics of populations, communities, and ecosystems are strongly affected by adaptive individual behaviors. Yet until now, we have lacked effective and flexible methods for modeling such dynamics. Traditional ecological models become impractical with the inclusion of behavior, and the optimization approaches of behavioral ecology cannot be used when future conditions are unpredictable due to feedbacks from the behavior of other individuals. This book provides a comprehensive introduction to state- and prediction-based theory, or SPT, a powerful new approach to modeling trade-off behaviors in contexts such as individual-based population models where feedbacks and variability make optimization impossible. This book features a wealth of examples that range from highly simplified behavior models to complex population models in which individuals make adaptive trade-off decisions about habitat and activity selection in highly heterogeneous environments. The book explains how SPT builds on key concepts from the state-based dynamic modeling theory of behavioral ecology, and how it combines explicit predictions of future conditions with approximations of a fitness measure to represent how individuals make good—not optimal—decisions that they revise as conditions change. The resulting models are realistic, testable, adaptable, and invaluable for answering fundamental questions in ecology and forecasting ecological outcomes of real-world scenarios.

It is undeniable that current international relations are exhibiting regressive trends that target International Law Rule of Law. These trends have limited the space for the construction of a coherent discourse coming from the constitutional school of International Law; however, this scenario is not only the result of speculative behavior of certain states. It lies—as well—in the lack of an articulate theory offered by international constitutionalism directed to explain the consequences of asserting the existence of a fundamental norm in the international realm. If the constitutional movement maintains that International Law has a constitution, then: Why is there no attempt to label current world events, not only as illegal but as breaches of its constitution? Why are legal norms being formed in the context of those breaches not labeled as constitutionally flawed? This chapter will attempt to analyze this in order to strengthen the constitutionalization argument in our discipline.

Studies have shown that environmental factors affect driving behaviors. For instance, weather conditions and the presence of a passenger have been shown to significantly affect the speed of the driver. As one of the important measures of driving behavior is the gaze and head movements of the driver, such metrics can be potentially used towards understanding the effects of environmental factors on the driver’s behavior in real-time. In this study, using a naturalistic study platform, videos have been collected from six participants for more than four weeks of a fully naturalistic driving scenario. The videos of both the participants’ faces and roads have been cleaned and manually categorized depending on weather, road type, and passenger conditions. Facial videos have been analyzed using OpenFace to retrieve the gaze direction and head movements of the driver. Results, overall, suggest that the gaze direction and head movements of the driver are affected by a combination of environmental factors and individual differences. Specifically, results depict the distracting effect of the passenger on some individuals. In addition, it shows that highways and city streets are the cause for maximum distraction on the driver’s gaze.

We present a heuristic control theory model that describes smoking under restricted and unrestricted access to cigarettes. The model is based on the allostasis theory and uses a formal representation of a multiscale opponent process. The model simulates smoking behavior of an individual and produces both short-term (“loading up” after not smoking for a while) and long-term smoking patterns (e.g., gradual transition from a few cigarettes to one pack a day). By introducing a formal representation of withdrawal- and craving-like processes, the model produces gradual increases over time in withdrawal- and craving-like signals associated with abstinence and shows that after 3 months of abstinence, craving disappears. The model was programmed as a computer application allowing users to select simulation scenarios. The application links images of brain regions that are activated during the binge/intoxication, withdrawal, or craving with corresponding simulated states. The model was calibrated to represent smoking patterns described in peer-reviewed literature; however, it is generic enough to be adapted to other drugs, including cocaine and opioids. Although the model does not mechanistically describe specific neurobiological processes, it can be useful in prevention and treatment practices as an illustration of drug-using behaviors and expected dynamics of withdrawal and craving during abstinence.

This study evaluates the demand for truck-only toll lanes on Southern California freeways with owner–operator truck drivers. The study implemented the stated preference survey method to estimate the value placed by drivers on time, reliability, and safety measures using various scenarios geared towards assessing those values. The project team met face-to-face with owner- operator truck drivers near the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach to understand the drivers’ perspectives regarding truck-only toll lanes on Southern California freeways. A data set containing 31 survey responses is obtained and used for statistical data analysis using analysis of variable (ANOVA) and two sample t-tests. The analysis results showed that 75.27% of the owner– operator truck drivers responded are willing to pay toll fees when they choose routes. The tolerated average toll fees are $13.77/ hr and $12.82/hr for weekdays and weekends, respectively. The analysis results also showed that owner–operator truck drivers will take truck-only toll lanes when they take the routes used in four comparisons out of six comparisons according to the three measures such as values of time, reliability, and safety, despite sharing a common origin and destination. The highest toll fee per mile on any day that drivers are willing to pay when the main factor being compared is value of time is $0.31/mile or $18.35/hr. The toll fees associated with reliability and safety measures are $0.30/mile or $8.94/hr and $0.22/mile or $11.01/hr, respectively. These results are meaningful for legislators and transportation agencies as the behaviors and route choice characteristics of owner–operator truck drivers help them better understand the utility and demand for truck-only toll lanes.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

The extended stiffened endplate (8ES) connection is broadly used in the seismic load-resisting parts of steel structures. This connection is prequalified based on the AISC 358 standard, especially for seismic regions. To study this connection’s behaviors, in the event of accidental loss of a column, the finite element model results were verified against the available experimental data. A parametric study using the finite element method was then carried out to investigate these numerical models’ maximum capacity and effective parameters' effect on their maximum capacity in a column loss scenario. This parametric analysis demonstrated that these connections fail at the large displacement due to the catenary action mode at the rib stiffener's vicinity. The carrying capacity, PEEQ, Von-Mises stress, middle column force-displacement, critical bolt axial load, and the beam axial load curves were discussed. Finally, using the Least Square Method (LSM), a formula is presented to determine the displacement at the maximum capacity of these connections. This formula can be used in this study's presented method to determine the maximum load capacity of the 8ES connections in a column loss scenario.

In the face of the multiple shocks currently experienced by the domestic economy (resulting from the drop in oil prices and the appearance of a global pandemic), the Colombian financial system is in a position of sound solvency and adequate liquidity. At the same time, credit quality has been recovering and the exposure of credit institutions to firms with currency mismatches has declined relative to previous episodes of sudden drops in oil prices. These trends are reflected in the recent fading of red and blue tonalities in the performance and credit risk segments of the risk heatmaps in Graphs A and B.1 Naturally, the sudden, unanticipated change in macroeconomic conditions has caused the appearance of vulnerabilities for short-term financial stability. These vulnerabilities require close and continuous monitoring on the part of economic authorities. The main vulnerability is the response of credit and credit risk to a potential, temporarily extreme macroeconomic situation in the context of: (i) recently increased exposure of some banks to household sector, and (ii) reductions in net interest income that have led to a decline in the profitability of the banking business in the recent past. Furthermore, as a consequence of greater uncertainty and risk aversion, occasional problems may arise in the distribution of liquidity between agents and financial markets. With regards to local markets, spikes have been registered in the volatility of public and private fixed income securities in recent weeks that are consistent with the behavior of the international markets and have had a significant impact on the liquidity of those instruments (red portions in the most recent past of some market risk items on the map in Graph A). In order to adopt a forward-looking approach to those vulnerabilities, this Report presents a stress test that evaluates the resilience of credit institutions in the event of a hypothetical scenario thatseeks to simulate an extreme version of current macroeconomic conditions. The scenario assumes a hypothetical negative growth that is temporarily strong but recovers going into the middle of the coming year and has extreme effects on credit quality. The results suggest that credit institutions have the ability to withstand a significant deterioration in economic conditions in the short term. Even though there could be a strong impact on credit, liquidity, and profitability under the scenario being considered, aggregate capital ratios would probably remain at above their regulatory limits over the horizon of a year. In this context, the recent measures taken by both Banco de la República and the Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia that are intended to help preserve the financial stability of the Colombian economy become highly relevant. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system’s security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions that are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the flow of sufficient credit and liquidity resources, and further the smooth functioning of the payment system. Juan José Echavarría Governor

From this edition, the Financial Stability Report will have fewer pages with some changes in its structure. The purpose of this change is to present the most relevant facts of the financial system and their implications on the financial stability. This allows displaying the analysis more concisely and clearly, as it will focus on describing the evolution of the variables that have the greatest impact on the performance of the financial system, for estimating then the effect of a possible materialization of these risks on the financial health of the institutions. The changing dynamics of the risks faced by the financial system implies that the content of the Report adopts this new structure; therefore, some analyses and series that were regularly included will not necessarily be in each issue. However, the statistical annex that accompanies the publication of the Report will continue to present the series that were traditionally included, regardless of whether or not they are part of the content of the Report. In this way we expect to contribute in a more comprehensive way to the study and analysis of the stability of the Colombian financial system. Executive Summary During the first half of 2015, the main advanced economies showed a slow recovery on their growth, while emerging economies continued with their slowdown trend. Domestic demand in the United States allowed for stabilization on its average growth for the first half of the year, while other developed economies such as the United Kingdom, the euro zone, and Japan showed a more gradual recovery. On the other hand, the Chinese economy exhibited the lowest growth rate in five years, which has resulted in lower global dynamism. This has led to a fall in prices of the main export goods of some Latin American economies, especially oil, whose price has also responded to a larger global supply. The decrease in the terms of trade of the Latin American economies has had an impact on national income, domestic demand, and growth. This scenario has been reflected in increases in sovereign risk spreads, devaluations of stock indices, and depreciation of the exchange rates of most countries in the region. For Colombia, the fall in oil prices has also led to a decline in the terms of trade, resulting in pressure on the dynamics of national income. Additionally, the lower demand for exports helped to widen the current account deficit. This affected the prospects and economic growth of the country during the first half of 2015. This economic context could have an impact on the payment capacity of debtors and on the valuation of investments, affecting the soundness of the financial system. However, the results of the analysis featured in this edition of the Report show that, facing an adverse scenario, the vulnerability of the financial system in terms of solvency and liquidity is low. The analysis of the current situation of credit institutions (CI) shows that growth of the gross loan portfolio remained relatively stable, as well as the loan portfolio quality indicators, except for microcredit, which showed a decrease in these indicators. Regarding liabilities, traditional sources of funding have lost market share versus non-traditional ones (bonds, money market operations and in the interbank market), but still represent more than 70%. Moreover, the solvency indicator remained relatively stable. As for non-banking financial institutions (NBFI), the slowdown observed during the first six months of 2015 in the real annual growth of the assets total, both in the proprietary and third party position, stands out. The analysis of the main debtors of the financial system shows that indebtedness of the private corporate sector has increased in the last year, mostly driven by an increase in the debt balance with domestic and foreign financial institutions. However, the increase in this latter source of funding has been influenced by the depreciation of the Colombian peso vis-à-vis the US dollar since mid-2014. The financial indicators reflected a favorable behavior with respect to the historical average, except for the profitability indicators; although they were below the average, they have shown improvement in the last year. By economic sector, it is noted that the firms focused on farming, mining and transportation activities recorded the highest levels of risk perception by credit institutions, and the largest increases in default levels with respect to those observed in December 2014. Meanwhile, households have shown an increase in the financial burden, mainly due to growth in the consumer loan portfolio, in which the modalities of credit card, payroll deductible loan, revolving and vehicle loan are those that have reported greater increases in risk indicators. On the side of investments that could be affected by the devaluation in the portfolio of credit institutions and non-banking financial institutions (NBFI), the largest share of public debt securities, variable-yield securities and domestic private debt securities is highlighted. The value of these portfolios fell between February and August 2015, driven by the devaluation in the market of these investments throughout the year. Furthermore, the analysis of the liquidity risk indicator (LRI) shows that all intermediaries showed adequate levels and exhibit a stable behavior. Likewise, the fragility analysis of the financial system associated with the increase in the use of non-traditional funding sources does not evidence a greater exposure to liquidity risk. Stress tests assess the impact of the possible joint materialization of credit and market risks, and reveal that neither the aggregate solvency indicator, nor the liquidity risk indicator (LRI) of the system would be below the established legal limits. The entities that result more individually affected have a low share in the total assets of the credit institutions; therefore, a risk to the financial system as a whole is not observed. José Darío Uribe Governor