Thematische Bibliographien / Bayesian estimate

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Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „Bayesian estimate“

Autor: Grafiati

Veröffentlicht am 28. Juni 2021

Zuletzt aktualisiert am 11. Februar 2022

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Zeitschriftenartikel zum Thema "Bayesian estimate"

Rahman, Mohammad Lutfor, Steven G. Gilmour, Peter J. Zemroch und Pauline R. Ziman. „Bayesian analysis of fuel economy experiments“. Journal of Statistical Research 54, Nr. 1 (25.08.2020): 43–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.47302/jsr.2020540103.

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Statistical analysts can encounter difficulties in obtaining point and interval estimates for fixed effects when sample sizes are small and there are two or more error strata to consider. Standard methods can lead to certain variance components being estimated as zero which often seems contrary to engineering experience and judgement. Shell Global Solutions (UK) has encountered such challenges and is always looking for ways to make its statistical techniques as robust as possible. In this instance, the challenge was to estimate fuel effects and confidence limits from small-sample fuel economy experiments where both test-to-test and day-to-day variation had to be taken into account. Using likelihood-based methods, the experimenters estimated the day-to-day variance component to be zero which was unrealistic. The reason behind this zero estimate is that the data set is not large enough to estimate it reliably. The experimenters were also unsure about the fixed parameter estimates obtained by likelihood methods in linear mixed models. In this paper, we looked for an alternative to compare the likelihood estimates against and found the Bayesian platform to be appropriate. Bayesian methods assuming some non-informative and weakly informative priors enable us to compare the parameter estimates and the variance components. Profile likelihood and bootstrap based methods verified that the Bayesian point and interval estimates were not unreasonable. Also, simulation studies have assessed the quality of likelihood and Bayesian estimates in this study.

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Sanger, Terence D. „Bayesian Filtering of Myoelectric Signals“. Journal of Neurophysiology 97, Nr. 2 (Februar 2007): 1839–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1152/jn.00936.2006.

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Surface electromyography is used in research, to estimate the activity of muscle, in prosthetic design, to provide a control signal, and in biofeedback, to provide subjects with a visual or auditory indication of muscle contraction. Unfortunately, successful applications are limited by the variability in the signal and the consequent poor quality of estimates. I propose to use a nonlinear recursive filter based on Bayesian estimation. The desired filtered signal is modeled as a combined diffusion and jump process and the measured electromyographic (EMG) signal is modeled as a random process with a density in the exponential family and rate given by the desired signal. The rate is estimated on-line by calculating the full conditional density given all past measurements from a single electrode. The Bayesian estimate gives the filtered signal that best describes the observed EMG signal. This estimate yields results with very low short-time variability but also with the capability of very rapid response to change. The estimate approximates isometric joint torque with lower error and higher signal-to-noise ratio than current linear methods. Use of the nonlinear filter significantly reduces noise compared with current algorithms, and it may therefore permit more effective use of the EMG signal for prosthetic control, biofeedback, and neurophysiology research.

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Fässler, Sascha M. M., Andrew S. Brierley und Paul G. Fernandes. „A Bayesian approach to estimating target strength“. ICES Journal of Marine Science 66, Nr. 6 (12.02.2009): 1197–204. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsp008.

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Abstract Fässler, S. M. M., Brierley, A. S., and Fernandes, P. G. 2009. A Bayesian approach to estimating target strength. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1197–1204. Currently, conventional models of target strength (TS) vs. fish length, based on empirical measurements, are used to estimate fish density from integrated acoustic data. These models estimate a mean TS, averaged over variables that modulate fish TS (tilt angle, physiology, and morphology); they do not include information about the uncertainty of the mean TS, which could be propagated through to estimates of fish abundance. We use Bayesian methods, together with theoretical TS models and in situ TS data, to determine the uncertainty in TS estimates of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus). Priors for model parameters (surface swimbladder volume, tilt angle, and s.d. of the mean TS) were used to estimate posterior parameter distributions and subsequently build a probabilistic TS model. The sensitivity of herring abundance estimates to variation in the Bayesian TS model was also evaluated. The abundance of North Sea herring from the area covered by the Scottish acoustic survey component was estimated using both the conventional TS–length formula (5.34×109 fish) and the Bayesian TS model (mean = 3.17×109 fish): this difference was probably because of the particular scattering model employed and the data used in the Bayesian model. The study demonstrates the relative importance of potential bias and precision of TS estimation and how the latter can be so much less important than the former.

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Christ, Theodore J., und Christopher David Desjardins. „Curriculum-Based Measurement of Reading: An Evaluation of Frequentist and Bayesian Methods to Model Progress Monitoring Data“. Journal of Psychoeducational Assessment 36, Nr. 1 (15.06.2017): 55–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0734282917712174.

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Curriculum-Based Measurement of Oral Reading (CBM-R) is often used to monitor student progress and guide educational decisions. Ordinary least squares regression (OLSR) is the most widely used method to estimate the slope, or rate of improvement (ROI), even though published research demonstrates OLSR’s lack of validity and reliability, and imprecision of ROI estimates, especially after brief duration of monitoring (6-10 weeks). This study illustrates and examines the use of Bayesian methods to estimate ROI. Conditions included four progress monitoring durations (6, 8, 10, and 30 weeks), two schedules of data collection (weekly, biweekly), and two ROI growth distributions that broadly corresponded with ROIs for general and special education populations. A Bayesian approach with alternate prior distributions for the ROIs is presented and explored. Results demonstrate that Bayesian estimates of ROI were more precise than OLSR with comparable reliabilities, and Bayesian estimates were consistently within the plausible range of ROIs in contrast to OLSR, which often provided unrealistic estimates. Results also showcase the influence the priors had estimated ROIs and the potential dangers of prior distribution misspecification.

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Al-Hossain, Abdullah Y. „Burr-X Model Estimate using Bayesian and non-Bayesian Approaches“. Journal of Mathematics and Statistics 12, Nr. 2 (01.02.2016): 77–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.3844/jmssp.2016.77.85.

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Ambrose, Paul G., Jeffrey P. Hammel, Sujata M. Bhavnani, Christopher M. Rubino, Evelyn J. Ellis-Grosse und George L. Drusano. „Frequentist and Bayesian Pharmacometric-Based Approaches To Facilitate Critically Needed New Antibiotic Development: Overcoming Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics“. Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy 56, Nr. 3 (12.12.2011): 1466–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1128/aac.01743-10.

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ABSTRACTAntimicrobial drug development has greatly diminished due to regulatory uncertainty about the magnitude of the antibiotic treatment effect. Herein we evaluate the utility of pharmacometric-based analyses for determining the magnitude of the treatment effect. Frequentist and Bayesian pharmacometric-based logistic regression analyses were conducted by using data from a phase 3 clinical trial of tigecycline-treated patients with hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) to evaluate relationships between the probability of microbiological or clinical success and the free-drug area under the concentration-time curve from time zero to 24 h (AUC0-24)/MIC ratio. By using both the frequentist and Bayesian approaches, the magnitude of the treatment effect was determined using three different methods based on the probability of success at free-drug AUC0-24/MIC ratios of 0.01 and 25. Differences in point estimates of the treatment effect for microbiological response (method 1) were larger using the frequentist approach than using the Bayesian approach (Bayesian estimate, 0.395; frequentist estimate, 0.637). However, the Bayesian credible intervals were tighter than the frequentist confidence intervals, demonstrating increased certainty with the former approach. The treatment effect determined by taking the difference in the probabilities of success between the upper limit of a 95% interval for the minimal exposure and the lower limit of a 95% interval at the maximal exposure (method 2) was greater for the Bayesian analysis (Bayesian estimate, 0.074; frequentist estimate, 0.004). After utilizing bootstrapping to determine the lower 95% bounds for the treatment effect (method 3), treatment effect estimates were still higher for the Bayesian analysis (Bayesian estimate, 0.301; frequentist estimate, 0.166). These results demonstrate the utility of frequentist and Bayesian pharmacometric-based analyses for the determination of the treatment effect using contemporary trial endpoints. Additionally, as demonstrated by using pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic data, the magnitude of the treatment effect for patients with HAP is large.

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Emelyanov, V. E., und S. P. Matyuk. „BAYESIAN ESTIMATE OF TELECOMMUNICATION SYSTEMS PREPAREDNESS“. Civil Aviation High Technologies 24, Nr. 1 (22.02.2021): 16–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.26467/2079-0619-2021-24-1-16-22.

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AGBAJE, Olorunsola F., Stephen D. LUZIO, Ahmed I. S. ALBARRAK, David J. LUNN, David R. OWENS und Roman HOVORKA. „Bayesian hierarchical approach to estimate insulin sensitivity by minimal model“. Clinical Science 105, Nr. 5 (01.11.2003): 551–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1042/cs20030117.

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We adopted Bayesian analysis in combination with hierarchical (population) modelling to estimate simultaneously population and individual insulin sensitivity (SI) and glucose effectiveness (SG) with the minimal model of glucose kinetics using data collected during insulin-modified intravenous glucose tolerance test (IVGTT) and made comparison with the standard non-linear regression analysis. After fasting overnight, subjects with newly presenting Type II diabetes according to World Health Organization criteria (n=65; 53 males, 12 females; age, 54±9 years; body mass index, 30.4±5.2 kg/m2; means±S.D.) underwent IVGTT consisting of a 0.3 g of glucose bolus/kg of body weight given at time zero for 2 min, followed by 0.05 unit of insulin/kg of body weight at 20 min. Bayesian inference was carried out using vague prior distributions and log-normal distributions to guarantee non-negativity and, thus, physiological plausibility of model parameters and associated credible intervals. Bayesian analysis gave estimates of SI in all subjects. Non-linear regression analysis failed in four cases, where Bayesian analysis-derived SI was located in the lower quartile and was estimated with lower precision. The population means of SI and SG provided by Bayesian analysis and non-linear regression were identical, but the interquartile range given by Bayesian analysis was tighter by approx. 20% for SI and by approx. 15% for SG. Individual insulin sensitivities estimated by the two methods were highly correlated (rS=0.98; P<0.001). However, the correlation in the lower 20% centile of the insulin-sensitivity range was significantly lower than the correlation in the upper 80% centile (rS=0.71 compared with rS=0.99; P<0.001). We conclude that the Bayesian hierarchical analysis is an appealing method to estimate SI and SG, as it avoids parameter estimation failures, and should be considered when investigating insulin-resistant subjects.

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Richard, Michael D., und Richard P. Lippmann. „Neural Network Classifiers Estimate Bayesian a posteriori Probabilities“. Neural Computation 3, Nr. 4 (Dezember 1991): 461–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/neco.1991.3.4.461.

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Many neural network classifiers provide outputs which estimate Bayesian a posteriori probabilities. When the estimation is accurate, network outputs can be treated as probabilities and sum to one. Simple proofs show that Bayesian probabilities are estimated when desired network outputs are 1 of M (one output unity, all others zero) and a squared-error or cross-entropy cost function is used. Results of Monte Carlo simulations performed using multilayer perceptron (MLP) networks trained with backpropagation, radial basis function (RBF) networks, and high-order polynomial networks graphically demonstrate that network outputs provide good estimates of Bayesian probabilities. Estimation accuracy depends on network complexity, the amount of training data, and the degree to which training data reflect true likelihood distributions and a priori class probabilities. Interpretation of network outputs as Bayesian probabilities allows outputs from multiple networks to be combined for higher level decision making, simplifies creation of rejection thresholds, makes it possible to compensate for differences between pattern class probabilities in training and test data, allows outputs to be used to minimize alternative risk functions, and suggests alternative measures of network performance.

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Ben Zaabza, Hafedh, Abderrahmen Ben Gara, Hedi Hammami, Mohamed Amine Ferchichi und Boulbaba Rekik. „Estimation of variance components of milk, fat, and protein yields of Tunisian Holstein dairy cattle using Bayesian and REML methods“. Archives Animal Breeding 59, Nr. 2 (01.06.2016): 243–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/aab-59-243-2016.

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Abstract. A multi-trait repeatability animal model under restricted maximum likelihood (REML) and Bayesian methods was used to estimate genetic parameters of milk, fat, and protein yields in Tunisian Holstein cows. The estimates of heritability for milk, fat, and protein yields from the REML procedure were 0.21 ± 0.05, 0.159 ± 0.04, and 0.158 ± 0.04, respectively. The corresponding results from the Bayesian procedure were 0.273 ± 0.02, 0.198 ± 0.01, and 0.187 ± 0.01. Heritability estimates tended to be larger via the Bayesian than those obtained by the REML method. Genetic and permanent environmental variances estimated by REML were smaller than those obtained by the Bayesian analysis. Inversely, REML estimates of the residual variances were larger than Bayesian estimates. Genetic and permanent correlation estimates were on the other hand comparable by both REML and Bayesian methods with permanent environmental being larger than genetic correlations. Results from this study confirm previous reports on genetic parameters for milk traits in Tunisian Holsteins and suggest that a multi-trait approach can be an alternative for implementing a routine genetic evaluation of the Tunisian dairy cattle population.

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Dissertationen zum Thema "Bayesian estimate"

OLIVEIRA, ANA CRISTINA BERNARDO DE. „BAYESIAN MODEL TO ESTIMATE ADVERTISING RECALL IN MARKETING“. PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 1997. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=7528@1.

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CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICO
A importância de sistemas que monitorem continuamente as resposta dos consumidores à propaganda é notadamente reconhecida pela comunidade de pesquisa de mercado. A coleta sistemática deste tipo de informação é importante porque através desta, pode-se revisar campanhas anteriores, corrigir tendências detectadas em pré-testes e melhor orientar as tomadas de decisão nos setores de propaganda. O presente trabalho contém um modelo para tentar medir esta resposta baseada em Modelos Lineares Dinâmicos Generalizados.
Analysis of consumer markets define and attempt to measure many variables in studies of the effectiveness of adversitising. The awareness in a consumer population of a particular advertising is one such quantity, the subject of the above-referenced studies. We define and give the implementation of model based in dynamic Generalised Linear Models which is used to measure this quantity.

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James, Peter Welbury. „Design and analysis of studies to estimate cerebral blood flow“. Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 2002. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.251020.

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Rodewald, Oliver Russell. „Use of Bayesian inference to estimate diversion likelihood in a PUREX facility“. Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/76951.

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Thesis (S.M. and S.B.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Nuclear Science and Engineering, 2011.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 66-67).
Nuclear Fuel reprocessing is done today with the PUREX process, which has been demonstrated to work at industrial scales at several facilities around the world. Use of the PUREX process results in the creation of a stream of pure plutonium, which allows the process to be potentially used by a proliferator. Safeguards have been put in place by the IAEA and other agencies to guard against the possibility of diversion and misuse, but the cost of these safeguards and the intrusion into a facility they represent could cause a fuel reprocessing facility operator to consider foregoing standard safeguards in favor of diversion detection that is less intrusive. Use of subjective expertise in a Bayesian network offers a unique opportunity to monitor a fuel reprocessing facility while collecting limited information compared to traditional safeguards. This work focuses on the preliminary creation of a proof of concept Bayesian network and its application to a model nuclear fuel reprocessing facility.
by Oliver Russell Rodewald.
S.M.and S.B.

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SOUZA, MARCUS VINICIUS PEREIRA DE. „A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO ESTIMATE THE EFFICIENT OPERATIONAL COSTS OF ELECTRICAL ENERGY UTILITIES“. PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2008. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=12361@1.

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PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO
Esta tese apresenta os principais resultados de medidas de eficiência dos custos operacionais de 60 distribuidoras brasileiras de energia elétrica. Baseado no esquema yardstick competition, foi utilizado uma Rede Neural d e Kohonen (KNN) para identificar grupos de empresas similares. Os resultados obtidos pela KNN não são determinísticos, visto que os pesos sinápticos da rede são inicializados aleatoriamente. Então, é realizada uma simulação de Monte Carlo para encontrar os clusters mais frequentes. As medidas foram obtidas por modelos DEA (input oriented, com e sem restrições aos pesos) e modelos Bayesianos e frequencistas de fronteira estocástica (utilizando as funções Cobb-Douglas e Translog). Em todos os modelos, DEA e SFA, a única variável input refere-se ao custo operacional (OPEX). Os índices de eficiência destes modelos representam a potencial redução destes custos de acordo com cada concessionária avaliada. Os outputs são os cost drivers da variável OPEX: número de unidades consumidoras (uma proxy da quantidade de serviço), montante de energia distribuída (uma proxy do produto total) e a extensão da rede de distribuição (uma proxy da dispersão dos consumidores na área de concessão). Finalmente, vale registrar que estas técnicas podem mitigar a assimetria de informação e aprimorar a habilidade do agente regulador em comparar os desempenhos das distribuidoras em ambientes de regulação incentivada.
This thesis presents the main results of the cost efficiency scores of 60 Brazilian electricity distribution utilities. Based on yardstick competition scheme, it was applied a Kohonen Neural Networks (KNN) to identify and to group the similar utilities. The KNN results are not deterministic, since the estimated weights are randomly initialized. Thus, a Monte Carlo simulation was used in order to find the most frequent clusters. Therefore was examined the use of the DEA methodology (input oriented, with and without weight constraints) and Bayesian and non- Bayesian Stochastic Frontier Analysis (centered on a Cobb- Douglas and Translog cost functions) to evaluate the cost efficiency scores of electricity distribution utilities. In both models the only input variable is operational cost (OPEX). The efficiency measures from these models reflect the potential of the reduction of operational costs of each utility. The outputs are the cost-drivers of the OPEX: the number of customers (a proxy for the amount of service), the total electric power supplied (a proxy for the amount of product delivered) and the distribution network size (a proxy of the customers scattering in the operating territory of each distribution utility). Finally, it is important to mention that these techniques can reduce the information assimetry to improve the regulator´s skill to compare the performance of the utilities in incentive regulation environments.

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Xiao, Yuqing. „Estimate the True Pass Probability for Near-Real-Time Monitor Challenge Data Using Bayesian Analysis“. Digital Archive @ GSU, 2006. http://digitalarchive.gsu.edu/math_theses/20.

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The U.S. Army¡¯s Chemical Demilitarization are designed to store, treat and destroy the nation¡¯s aging chemical weapons. It operates Near-Real-Time Monitors and Deport Area Monitoring Systems to detect chemical agent at concentrations before they become dangerous to workers, public health and the environment. CDC recommends that the sampling and analytical methods measure within 25% of the true concentration 95% of the time, and if this criterion is not met the alarm set point or reportable level should be adjusted. Two methods were provided by Army¡¯s Programmatic Laboratory and Monitoring Quality Assurance Plan to evaluate the monitoring systems based on CDC recommendations. This thesis addresses the potential problems associated with these two methods and proposes the Bayesian method in an effort to improve the assessment. Comparison of simulation results indicates that Bayesian method produces a relatively better estimate for verifying monitoring system performance as long as the prior given is correct.

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HUAMANI, LUIS ALBERTO NAVARRO. „A BAYESIAN PROCEDUCE TO ESTIMATE THE INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL END USES IN RESIDENCIAL ELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION“. PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 1997. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=8691@1.

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CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICO
Esta dissertação investiga a utilização do Modelo de Regressão Multivariada Seemingly Unrelated sob uma perspectiva Bayesiana, na estimação das curvas de carga dos principais eletrodomésticos. Será utilizada uma estrutura de Demanda Condicional (CDA), consideradas de especial interesse no setor comercial e residencial para o gerenciamento pelo lado da demanda (Demand Side Management) dos hábitos dos consumidores residenciais. O trabalho envolve três partes principais: uma apresentação das metodologias estatísticas clássicas usadas para estimar as curvas de cargas; um estudo sobre Modelos de Regressão Multivariada Seemingly Unrelated usando uma aproximação Bayesiana. E por último o desenvolvimento do modelo num estudo de caso. Na apresentação das metodologias clássicas fez-se um levantamento preliminar da estrutura CDA para casos univariados usando Regressão Múltipla, e multivariada usando Regressão Multivariada Seemingly Unrelated, onde o desempenho desta estrutura depende da estrutura de correlação entre os erros de consumo horário durante um dia específico; assim como as metodologias usadas para estimar as curvas de cargas. No estudo sobre Modelos de Regressão Multivariada Seemingly Unrelated a partir da abordagem Bayesiana considerou-se um fator importante no desempenho da metodologia de estimação, a saber: informação a priori. No desenvolvimento do modelo, foram estimadas as curvas de cargas dos principais eletrodomésticos numa abordagem Bayesiana mostrando o desempenho da metodologia na captura de ambos tipos de informação: estimativas de engenharia e estimativas CDA. Os resultados obtidos avaliados pelo método acima comprovaram superioridade na explicação de dados em relação aos modelos clássicos.
The present dissertation investigates the use of multivariate regression models from a Bayesian point of view. These models were used to estimate the electric load behavior of household end uses. A conditional demand structure was used considering its application to the demand management of the residential and commercial consumers. This work is divided in three main parts: a description of the classical statistical methodologies used for the electric load prediction, a study of the multivariate regression models using a Bayesian approach and a further development of the model applied to a case study. A preliminary revision of the CDA structure was done for univariate cases using multiple regression. A similar revision was done for other cases using multivariate regression (Seemingly Unrelated). In those cases, the behavior of the structure depends on the correlation between a minimization of the daily demand errors and the methodologies used for the electric load prediction. The study on multivariate regression models (Seemingly Unrelated) was done from a Bayesian point of view. This kind of study is very important for the prediction methodology. When developing the model, the electric load curves of the main household appliances were predicted using a Bayesian approach. This fact showed the performance of the metodology on the capture of two types of information: Engineering prediction and CDA prediction. The results obtained using the above method, for describing the data, were better than the classical models.

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Bergström, David. „Bayesian optimization for selecting training and validation data for supervised machine learning : using Gaussian processes both to learn the relationship between sets of training data and model performance, and to estimate model performance over the entire problem domain“. Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Artificiell intelligens och integrerade datorsystem, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-157327.

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Validation and verification in machine learning is an open problem which becomes increasingly important as its applications becomes more critical. Amongst the applications are autonomous vehicles and medical diagnostics. These systems all needs to be validated before being put into use or else the consequences might be fatal. This master’s thesis focuses on improving both learning and validating machine learning models in cases where data can either be generated or collected based on a chosen position. This can for example be taking and labeling photos at the position or running some simulation which generates data from the chosen positions. The approach is twofold. The first part concerns modeling the relationship between any fixed-size set of positions and some real valued performance measure. The second part involves calculating such a performance measure by estimating the performance over a region of positions. The result is two different algorithms, both variations of Bayesian optimization. The first algorithm models the relationship between a set of points and some performance measure while also optimizing the function and thus finding the set of points which yields the highest performance. The second algorithm uses Bayesian optimization to approximate the integral of performance over the region of interest. The resulting algorithms are validated in two different simulated environments. The resulting algorithms are applicable not only to machine learning but can also be used to optimize any function which takes a set of positions and returns a value, but are more suitable when the function is expensive to evaluate.

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Li, Qing. „Recurrent-Event Models for Change-Points Detection“. Diss., Virginia Tech, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/78207.

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The driving risk of novice teenagers is the highest during the initial period after licensure but decreases rapidly. This dissertation develops recurrent-event change-point models to detect the time when driving risk decreases significantly for novice teenager drivers. The dissertation consists of three major parts: the first part applies recurrent-event change-point models with identical change-points for all subjects; the second part proposes models to allow change-points to vary among drivers by a hierarchical Bayesian finite mixture model; the third part develops a non-parametric Bayesian model with a Dirichlet process prior. In the first part, two recurrent-event change-point models to detect the time of change in driving risks are developed. The models are based on a non-homogeneous Poisson process with piecewise constant intensity functions. It is shown that the change-points only occur at the event times and the maximum likelihood estimators are consistent. The proposed models are applied to the Naturalistic Teenage Driving Study, which continuously recorded textit{in situ} driving behaviour of 42 novice teenage drivers for the first 18 months after licensure using sophisticated in-vehicle instrumentation. The results indicate that crash and near-crash rate decreases significantly after 73 hours of independent driving after licensure. The models in part one assume identical change-points for all drivers. However, several studies showed that different patterns of risk change over time might exist among the teenagers, which implies that the change-points might not be identical among drivers. In the second part, change-points are allowed to vary among drivers by a hierarchical Bayesian finite mixture model, considering that clusters exist among the teenagers. The prior for mixture proportions is a Dirichlet distribution and a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is developed to sample from the posterior distributions. DIC is used to determine the best number of clusters. Based on the simulation study, the model gives fine results under different scenarios. For the Naturalist Teenage Driving Study data, three clusters exist among the teenagers: the change-points are 52.30, 108.99 and 150.20 hours of driving after first licensure correspondingly for the three clusters; the intensity rates increase for the first cluster while decrease for other two clusters; the change-point of the first cluster is the earliest and the average intensity rate is the highest. In the second part, model selection is conducted to determine the number of clusters. An alternative is the Bayesian non-parametric approach. In the third part, a Dirichlet process Mixture Model is proposed, where the change-points are assigned a Dirichlet process prior. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is developed to sample from the posterior distributions. Automatic clustering is expected based on change-points without specifying the number of latent clusters. Based on the Dirichlet process mixture model, three clusters exist among the teenage drivers for the Naturalistic Teenage Driving Study. The change-points of the three clusters are 96.31, 163.83, and 279.19 hours. The results provide critical information for safety education, safety countermeasure development, and Graduated Driver Licensing policy making.
Ph. D.

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Benko, Matej. „Hledaní modelů pohybu a jejich parametrů pro identifikaci trajektorie cílů“. Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta strojního inženýrství, 2021. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-445467.

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Táto práca sa zaoberá odstraňovaním šumu, ktorý vzniká z tzv. multilateračných meraní leteckých cieľov. Na tento účel bude využitá najmä teória Bayesovských odhadov. Odvodí sa aposteriórna hustota skutočnej (presnej) polohy lietadla. Spolu s polohou (alebo aj rýchlosťou) lietadla bude odhadovaná tiež geometria trajektórie lietadla, ktorú lietadlo v aktuálnom čase sleduje a tzv. procesný šum, ktorý charakterizuje ako moc sa skutočná trajektória môže od tejto líšiť. Odhad spomínaného procesného šumu je najdôležitejšou časťou tejto práce. Je odvodený prístup maximálnej vierohodnosti a Bayesovský prístup a ďalšie rôzne vylepšenia a úpravy týchto prístupov. Tie zlepšujú odhad pri napr. zmene manévru cieľa alebo riešia problém počiatočnej nepresnosti odhadu maximálnej vierohodnosti. Na záver je ukázaná možnosť kombinácie prístupov, t.j. odhad spolu aj geometrie aj procesného šumu.

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Nickless, Alecia. „Regional CO₂ flux estimates for South Africa through inverse modelling“. Doctoral thesis, University of Cape Town, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/29703.

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Bayesian inverse modelling provides a top-down technique of verifying emissions and uptake of carbon dioxide (CO₂) from both natural and anthropogenic sources. It relies on accurate measurements of CO₂ concentrations at appropriately placed sites and "best-guess" initial estimates of the biogenic and anthropogenic emissions, together with uncertainty estimates. The Bayesian framework improves current estimates of CO₂ fluxes based on independent measurements of CO₂ concentrations while being constrained by the initial estimates of these fluxes. Monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) is critical for establishing whether emission reducing activities to mitigate the effects of climate change are being effective, and the Bayesian inverse modelling approach of correcting CO₂ flux estimates provides one of the tools regulators and researchers can use to refine these emission estimates. South Africa is known to be the largest emitter of CO₂ on the African continent. The first major objective of this research project was to carry out such an optimal network design for South Africa. This study used fossil fuel emission estimates from a satellite product based on observations of night-time lights and locations of power stations (Fossil Fuel Data Assimilations System (FFDAS)), and biogenic productivity estimates from a carbon assessment carried out for South Africa to provide the initial CO₂ flux estimates and their uncertainties. Sensitivity analyses considered changes to the covariance matrix and spatial scale of the inversion, as well as different optimisation algorithms, to assess the impact of these specifications on the optimal network solution. This question was addressed in Chapters 2 and 3. The second major objective of this project was to use the Bayesian inverse modelling approach to obtain estimates of CO₂ fluxes over Cape Town and surrounding area. I collected measurements of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations from March 2012 until July 2013 at Robben Island and Hangklip lighthouses. CABLE (Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange), a land-atmosphere exchange model, provided the biogenic estimates of CO₂ fluxes and their uncertainties. Fossil fuel estimates and uncertainties were obtained by means of an inventory analysis for Cape Town. As an inventory analysis was not available for Cape Town, this exercise formed an additional objective of the project, presented in Chapter 4. A spatially and temporally explicit, high resolution surface of fossil fuel emission estimates was derived from road vehicle, aviation and shipping vessel count data, population census data, and industrial fuel use statistics, making use of well-established emission factors. The city-scale inversion for Cape Town solved for weekly fluxes of CO₂ emissions on a 1 km × 1 km grid, keeping fossil fuel and biogenic emissions as separate sources. I present these results for the Cape Town inversion under the proposed best available configuration of the Bayesian inversion framework in Chapter 5. Due to the large number of CO₂ sources at this spatial and temporal resolution, the reference inversion solved for weekly fluxes in blocks of four weeks at a time. As the uncertainties around the biogenic flux estimates were large, the inversion corrected the prior fluxes predominantly through changes to the biogenic fluxes. I demonstrated the benefit of using a control vector with separate terms for fossil fuel and biogenic flux components. Sensitivity analyses, solving for average weekly fluxes within a monthly inversion, as well as solving for separate weekly fluxes (i.e. solving in one week blocks) were considered. Sensitivity analyses were performed which focused on how changes to the prior information and prior uncertainty estimates and the error correlations of the fluxes would impact on the Bayesian inversion solution. The sensitivity tests are presented in Chapter 6. These sensitivity analyses indicated that refining the estimates of biogenic fluxes and reducing their uncertainties, as well as taking advantage of spatial correlation between areas of homogeneous biota would lead to the greatest improvement in the accuracy and precision of the posterior fluxes from the Cape Town metropolitan area.

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Bücher zum Thema "Bayesian estimate"

Houston, Walter M. Empirical Bayes estimates of parameters from the logistic regression model. Iowa City, Iowa: ACT, Inc., 1997.

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Houston, Walter M. Empirical Bayes estimates of parameters from the logistic regression model. Iowa City, Iowa: ACT, Inc., 1997.

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Doppelhofer, Gernot. Determinants of long-term growth: A Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) approach. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2000.

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Tanabe, Kunio. BNDE, FORTRAN subroutines for computing Bayesian nonparametric univariate and bivariate density estimator. Tokyo: Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 1988.

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Walsh, Bruce, und Michael Lynch. Analysis of Short-term Selection Experiments: 2. Mixed-model and Bayesian Approaches. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198830870.003.0019.

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When the full pedigree of individuals whose values (records) were used in the selection decisions during an experiment (or breeding program) is known, LS analysis can be replaced by mixed models and their Bayesian extensions. In this setting, REML can be used to estimate genetic variances and BLUP can be used to estimate the mean breeding value in any given generation. The latter allows for genetic trends to be separated from environmental trends without the need for a control population. Under the infinitesimal model setting (wherein selection-induced allele-frequency changes are small during the course of the experiment), the use of the relationship matrix in a BLUP analysis accounts for drift, nonrandom mating, and linkage disequilibrium.

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Quintana, José Mario, Carlos Carvalho, James Scott und Thomas Costigliola. Extracting S&P500 and NASDAQ Volatility: The Credit Crisis of 2007–2008. Herausgegeben von Anthony O'Hagan und Mike West. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198703174.013.13.

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This article demonstrates the utility of Bayesian modelling and inference in financial market volatility analysis, using the 2007-2008 credit crisis as a case study. It first describes the applied problem and goal of the Bayesian analysis before introducing the sequential estimation models. It then discusses the simulation-based methodology for inference, including Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and particle filtering methods for filtering and parameter learning. In the study, Bayesian sequential model choice techniques are used to estimate volatility and volatility dynamics for daily data for the year 2007 for three market indices: the Standard and Poor’s S&P500, the NASDAQ NDX100 and the financial equity index called XLF. Three models of financial time series are estimated: a model with stochastic volatility, a model with stochastic volatility that also incorporates jumps in volatility, and a Garch model.

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Higdon, Dave, Katrin Heitmann, Charles Nakhleh und Salman Habib. Combining simulations and physical observations to estimate cosmological parameters. Herausgegeben von Anthony O'Hagan und Mike West. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198703174.013.26.

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This article focuses on the use of a Bayesian approach that combines simulations and physical observations to estimate cosmological parameters. It begins with an overview of the Λ-cold dark matter (CDM) model, the simplest cosmological model in agreement with the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and largescale structure analysis. The CDM model is determined by a small number of parameters which control the composition, expansion and fluctuations of the universe. The present study aims to learn about the values of these parameters using measurements from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). Computationally intensive simulation results are combined with measurements from the SDSS to infer about a subset of the parameters that control the CDM model. The article also describes a statistical framework used to determine a posterior distribution for these cosmological parameters and concludes by showing how it can be extended to include data from diverse data sources.

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Chappell, Michael, Bradley MacIntosh und Thomas Okell. Kinetic Modeling. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198793816.003.0004.

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The quantification of perfusion from arterial spin labeling (ASL) perfusion MRI data relies upon the principles of tracer kinetics. This chapter first outlines the simplest form of a tracer kinetic model that can be applied to ASL data, before exploring variations on this model that can be applied to extract other hemodynamic information such as arterial transit time. Finally, the chapter examines how tracer kinetic models are used with data to estimate perfusion parameters, including the use of model fitting and Bayesian inference.

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Gelfand, Alan, und Sujit K. Sahu. Models for demography of plant populations. Herausgegeben von Anthony O'Hagan und Mike West. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198703174.013.17.

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This article discusses the use of Bayesian analysis and methods to analyse the demography of plant populations, and more specifically to estimate the demographic rates of trees and how they respond to environmental variation. It examines data from individual (tree) measurements over an eighteen-year period, including diameter, crown area, maturation status, and survival, and from seed traps, which provide indirect information on fecundity. The multiple data sets are synthesized with a process model where each individual is represented by a multivariate state-space submodel for both continuous (fecundity potential, growth rate, mortality risk, maturation probability) and discrete states (maturation status). The results from plant population demography analysis demonstrate the utility of hierarchical modelling as a mechanism for the synthesis of complex information and interactions.

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Size matters: measuring the effects of inequality and growth shocks. UNU-WIDER, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.35188/unu-wider/2020/934-1.

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Understanding the relationship between income inequality and economic growth is of utmost importance to economists and social scientists. In this paper we use a Bayesian structural vector autoregression approach to estimate the relationship between inequality and growth via growth and inequality shocks for two large economies, China and the USA, for the years 1979–2018. We find that a growth shock is inequality-increasing, and an inequality shock is growth-reducing. We also find, however, that the sizes of the effects of these shocks are very small, accounting for under 2 per cent of the variance for both countries. Finally, we also find that the effects of the shocks dissipate within ten years, suggesting that the effects of these shocks are a short-term phenomenon.

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Buchteile zum Thema "Bayesian estimate"

Ghosh, J. K. „The Horvitz-Thompson Estimate and Basu’s Circus Revisited“. In Bayesian Analysis in Statistics and Econometrics, 225–28. New York, NY: Springer New York, 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-2944-5_14.

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O’Hagan, Anthony, und Frank S. Wells. „Use of Prior Information to Estimate Costs in a Sewerage Operation“. In Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics, 118–62. New York, NY: Springer New York, 1993. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-2714-4_3.

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Peña, José M., Víctor Robles, Óscar Marbán und María S. Pérez. „Bayesian Methods to Estimate Future Load in Web Farms“. In Advances in Web Intelligence, 217–26. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-24681-7_24.

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Joanes, Derrick N., Christine A. Gill und Andrew J. Baczkowski. „Simulation of a Bayesian Interval Estimate for a Heterogeneity Measure“. In Compstat, 187–92. Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag HD, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-52463-9_20.

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Mira, Antonietta, und Paolo Tenconi. „Bayesian Estimate of Default Probabilities via MCMC with Delayed Rejection“. In Seminar on Stochastic Analysis, Random Fields and Applications IV, 275–89. Basel: Birkhäuser Basel, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-0348-7943-9_17.

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Naumov, Oleksandr, Mariia Voronenko, Olga Naumova, Nataliia Savina, Svitlana Vyshemyrska, Vitaliy Korniychuk und Volodymyr Lytvynenko. „Using Bayesian Networks to Estimate the Effectiveness of Innovative Projects“. In Lecture Notes in Computational Intelligence and Decision Making, 729–43. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-82014-5_50.

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Dammalapati, Sai Krishna, Vishal Murmu und Gnanasekaran Nagarajan. „Bayesian Inference Approach to Estimate Robin Coefficient Using Metropolis Hastings Algorithm“. In Recent Advances in Chemical Engineering, 293–302. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-1633-2_32.

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Jiang, Liangxiao, Dianhong Wang und Zhihua Cai. „Scaling Up the Accuracy of Bayesian Network Classifiers by M-Estimate“. In Advanced Intelligent Computing Theories and Applications. With Aspects of Artificial Intelligence, 475–84. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-74205-0_52.

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del Río, Sergio, und Edwin Villanueva. „A Novel Method to Estimate Parents and Children for Local Bayesian Network Learning“. In Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, 468–85. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-82196-8_35.

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Duan, Jing, Zhengkui Lin, Weiguo Yi und Mingyu Lu. „Scaling Up the Accuracy of Bayesian Classifier Based on Frequent Itemsets by M-estimate“. In Artificial Intelligence and Computational Intelligence, 357–64. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-16530-6_42.

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Konferenzberichte zum Thema "Bayesian estimate"

de Melo, Brian A. R., Raony C. C. Cesar und Carlos A. B. Pereira. „Sample sizes to estimate proportions and correlation“. In XI BRAZILIAN MEETING ON BAYESIAN STATISTICS: EBEB 2012. AIP, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4759606.

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Gu, L., G. Li, J. Abramczyk und J. Prybylski. „A Bayesian Estimate of Vehicle Safety Performance“. In SAE 2005 World Congress & Exhibition. 400 Commonwealth Drive, Warrendale, PA, United States: SAE International, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.4271/2005-01-0822.

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Iseki, Toshio. „An Improved Stochastic Modeling for Bayesian Wave Estimation“. In ASME 2012 31st International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2012-83740.

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A modified Bayesian modeling procedure for wave estimation is proposed. In this method, errors in the estimates of ship response functions can be taken into account. In order to discuss the relationship between the minimum ABIC and the accuracy of the estimated wave parameters, the ABIC surfaces and the optimum area of the wave estimation are shown with respect to the two hyperparameters. As a result, the modified Bayesian modeling makes the ABIC surface smoother and can provide stable wave estimation. This concludes that the modified Bayesian modeling is reliable within a certain accuracy to estimate the wave parameters.

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Torres-Avilés, F., C. Molina und M. J. Muñoz. „Bayesian approaches for Poisson models to estimate bivariate relative risks“. In XI BRAZILIAN MEETING ON BAYESIAN STATISTICS: EBEB 2012. AIP, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4759618.

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Dan, Zhiping, Xi Chen, Haitao Gan und Changxin Gao. „Locally Adaptive Shearlet Denoising Based on Bayesian MAP Estimate“. In Graphics (ICIG). IEEE, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icig.2011.134.

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Nagel, Joseph B., und Bruno Sudret. „A Bayesian Multilevel Approach to Optimally Estimate Material Properties“. In Second International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management (ICVRAM) and the Sixth International Symposium on Uncertainty, Modeling, and Analysis (ISUMA). Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/9780784413609.151.

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Feng Hu, Wei Li, Jorma Lilleberg und Matti Latva-aho. „On the approximate noise modeling for the Estimate-and-Forward relay with the Bayesian estimator“. In 2013 IEEE Wireless Communications and Networking Conference (WCNC). IEEE, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/wcnc.2013.6555206.

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Bin Kamarul Hatta, Khairul Anwar, Kuokkwee Wee, Wooi Ping Cheah und Yit Yin Wee. „A True Bayesian Estimate concept in LTE downlink scheduling algorithm“. In 2015 International Telecommunication Networks and Applications Conference (ITNAC). IEEE, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/atnac.2015.7366791.

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Suvorova, Alena V. „Models for respondents' behavior rate estimate: Bayesian Network structure synthesis“. In 2017 XX IEEE International Conference on Soft Computing and Measurements (SCM). IEEE, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/scm.2017.7970503.

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Hendri, Eko Primadi, Aji Hamim Wigena und Anik Djuraidah. „BAYESIAN QUANTILE REGRESSION MODELING TO ESTIMATE EXTREME RAINFALL IN INDRAMAYU“. In Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Statistics and Analytics, ICSA 2019, 2-3 August 2019, Bogor, Indonesia. EAI, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4108/eai.2-8-2019.2290491.

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Berichte der Organisationen zum Thema "Bayesian estimate"

Mulcahy, Garrett, Dusty Brooks und Brian Ehrhart. Using Bayesian Methodology to Estimate Liquefied Natural Gas Leak Frequencies. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), April 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1782412.

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Cheng, Benny N., und Lap S. Tam. Bayesian Missile System Reliability from Point Estimates. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, Oktober 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada611099.

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Williams, Brian. Bayesian Optimal Sensor Augmentation Via Estimated Mutual Information. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), Oktober 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1669078.

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Doppelhofer, Gernot, Ronald Miller und Xavier Sala-i-Martin. Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, Juni 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w7750.

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Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando, Rubén Albeiro Loaiza-Maya und Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas. Bayesian combination for inflation forecasts : the effects of a prior based on central banks' estimates. Bogotá, Colombia: Banco de la República, November 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/be.853.

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