Thematische Bibliographien / Avion (avion) – Probabilités / Zeitschriftenartikel
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Zeitschriftenartikel zum Thema „Avion (avion) – Probabilités“

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Veröffentlicht am 1. Februar 2025

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1

Evans, Allen F., Quinn Payton, Nathan J. Hostetter, Ken Collis, Bradley M. Cramer und Daniel D. Roby. „Cumulative effects of piscivorous colonial waterbirds on juvenile salmonids: A multi predator-prey species evaluation“. PLOS ONE 17, Nr. 8 (10.08.2022): e0272875. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0272875.

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We investigated the cumulative effects of predation by piscivorous colonial waterbirds on the survival of multiple salmonid (Oncorhynchus spp.) populations listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) and determined what proportion of all sources of fish mortality (1 –survival) were due to birds in the Columbia River basin, USA. Anadromous juvenile salmonids (smolts) were exposed to predation by Caspian terns (Hydroprogne caspia), double-crested cormorants (Nannopterum auritum), California gulls (Larus californicus), and ring-billed gulls (L. delawarensis), birds known to consume both live and dead fish. Avian consumption and survival probabilities (proportion of available fish consumed or alive) were estimated for steelhead trout (O. mykiss), yearling Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha), sub-yearling Chinook salmon, and sockeye salmon (O. nerka) during out-migration from the lower Snake River to the Pacific Ocean during an 11-year study period (2008–2018). Results indicated that probabilities of avian consumption varied greatly across salmonid populations, bird species, colony location, river reach, and year. Cumulative consumption probabilities (consumption by birds from all colonies combined) were consistently the highest for steelhead, with annual estimates ranging from 0.22 (95% credible interval = 0.20–0.26) to 0.51 (0.43–0.60) of available smolts. The cumulative effects of avian consumption were significantly lower for yearling and sub-yearling Chinook salmon, with consumption probabilities ranging annually from 0.04 (0.02–0.07) to 0.10 (0.07–0.15) and from 0.06 (0.3–0.09) to 0.15 (0.10–0.23), respectively. Avian consumption probabilities for sockeye salmon smolts was generally higher than for Chinook salmon smolts, but lower than for steelhead smolts, ranging annually from 0.08 (0.03–0.22) to 0.25 (0.14–0.44). Although annual consumption probabilities for birds from certain colonies were more than 0.20 of available smolts, probabilities from other colonies were less than 0.01 of available smolts, indicating that not all colonies of birds posed a substantial risk to smolt mortality. Consumption probabilities were lowest for small colonies and for colonies located a considerable distance from the Snake and Columbia rivers. Total mortality attributed to avian consumption was relatively small for Chinook salmon (less than 10%) but was the single greatest source of mortality for steelhead (greater than 50%) in all years evaluated. Results suggest that the potential benefits to salmonid populations of managing birds to reduce smolt mortality would vary widely depending on the salmonid population, the species of bird, and the size and location of the breeding colony.
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Pérez-Losada, Marcos, Ryan G. Christensen, David A. McClellan, Byron J. Adams, Raphael P. Viscidi, James C. Demma und Keith A. Crandall. „Comparing Phylogenetic Codivergence between Polyomaviruses and Their Hosts“. Journal of Virology 80, Nr. 12 (15.06.2006): 5663–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1128/jvi.00056-06.

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ABSTRACT Seventy-two full genomes corresponding to nine mammalian (67 strains) and two avian (5 strains) polyomavirus species were analyzed using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods of phylogenetic inference. Our fully resolved and well-supported (bootstrap proportions > 90%; posterior probabilities = 1.0) trees separate the bird polyomaviruses (avian polyomavirus and goose hemorrhagic polyomavirus) from the mammalian polyomaviruses, which supports the idea of spitting the genus into two subgenera. Such a split is also consistent with the different viral life strategies of each group. Simian (simian virus 40, simian agent 12 [Sa12], and lymphotropic polyomavirus) and rodent (hamster polyomavirus, mouse polyomavirus, and murine pneumotropic polyomavirus [MPtV]) polyomaviruses did not form monophyletic groups. Using our best hypothesis of polyomavirus evolutionary relationships and established host phylogenies, we performed a cophylogenetic reconciliation analysis of codivergence. Our analyses generated six optimal cophylogenetic scenarios of coevolution, including 12 codivergence events (P< 0.01), suggesting that Polyomaviridae coevolved with their avian and mammal hosts. As individual lineages, our analyses showed evidence of host switching in four terminal branches leading to MPtV, bovine polyomavirus, Sa12, and BK virus, suggesting a combination of vertical and horizontal transfer in the evolutionary history of the polyomaviruses.
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Nichols, James D., James E. Hines, John R. Sauer, Frederick W. Fallon, Jane E. Fallon und Patricia J. Heglund. „A Double-Observer Approach for Estimating Detection Probability and Abundance From Point Counts“. Auk 117, Nr. 2 (01.04.2000): 393–408. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/auk/117.2.393.

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Abstract Although point counts are frequently used in ornithological studies, basic assumptions about detection probabilities often are untested. We apply a double-observer approach developed to estimate detection probabilities for aerial surveys (Cook and Jacobson 1979) to avian point counts. At each point count, a designated “primary” observer indicates to another (“secondary”) observer all birds detected. The secondary observer records all detections of the primary observer as well as any birds not detected by the primary observer. Observers alternate primary and secondary roles during the course of the survey. The approach permits estimation of observer-specific detection probabilities and bird abundance. We developed a set of models that incorporate different assumptions about sources of variation (e.g. observer, bird species) in detection probability. Seventeen field trials were conducted, and models were fit to the resulting data using program SURVIV. Single-observer point counts generally miss varying proportions of the birds actually present, and observer and bird species were found to be relevant sources of variation in detection probabilities. Overall detection probabilities (probability of being detected by at least one of the two observers) estimated using the double-observer approach were very high (>0.95), yielding precise estimates of avian abundance. We consider problems with the approach and recommend possible solutions, including restriction of the approach to fixed-radius counts to reduce the effect of variation in the effective radius of detection among various observers and to provide a basis for using spatial sampling to estimate bird abundance on large areas of interest. We believe that most questions meriting the effort required to carry out point counts also merit serious attempts to estimate detection probabilities associated with the counts. The double-observer approach is a method that can be used for this purpose.
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Saracco, James F., J. Andrew Royle, David F. DeSante und Beth Gardner. „Modeling spatial variation in avian survival and residency probabilities“. Ecology 91, Nr. 7 (Juli 2010): 1885–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/09-0705.1.

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Applegate, Roger D., Robert E. Kissell, E. Daniel Moss, Edward L. Warr und Michael L. Kennedy. „Problems with Avian Point Counts for Estimating Density of Northern Bobwhite—A Case Study“. Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management 2, Nr. 1 (01.06.2011): 117–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.3996/092010-jfwm-033.

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Abstract Point count data are used increasingly to provide density estimates of bird species. A favored approach to analyze point count data uses distance sampling theory where model selection and model fit are important considerations. We used uniform and half normal models and assessed model fit using χ2 analysis. We were unsuccessful in fitting models to 635 northern bobwhite Colinus virginianus observations from 85 avian point locations spanning 6 y (P ≤ 0.05). Most observations (74%) occurred in the outermost (&gt;100-m) distance radius. Our results violated the assumptions that all observations at the point are detected. The assumption that birds were assigned to the correct distance interval also was probably violated. We caution managers in implementing avian point counts with distance sampling when estimating northern bobwhite population density. We recommend exploring other approaches such as occupancy-estimation and modeling for estimating detection probabilities.
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Zhang, Kerong, und Wuyi Liu. „Preliminary Exploration and Management Analysis of the Impact of the Avian Influenza Epidemics from the Point View of Chinese Animal Farmers“. Global Journal of Health Science 9, Nr. 1 (14.06.2016): 233. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/gjhs.v9n1p233.

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<p>In the study, the outbreak of avian influenza was explored analyzed in depth with all the data resources available. It was found that behavior choices and motivations of the animal producers fundamentally depended on their interests and accessing means in the process of animal epidemic disease prevention and control. It was suggested that the government and its sectors should formulate and execute an appropriate compensation system and make compensation timely when there appears an economic impact of major epidemic animal diseases on the producers and the producers’ economic losses are found. Furthermore, the government should take any effective measures to guide and promote the transformation of the conventional modes of livestock production, and lead those farmers and producers to the changed ways of conventional livestock production activities and modes to reduce the probabilities of animal diseases spread and outbreak, especially the infectious diseases like avian influenza.</p>
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Kang, Ting, Qimin Zhang und Libin Rong. „A delayed avian influenza model with avian slaughter: Stability analysis and optimal control“. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 529 (September 2019): 121544. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.121544.

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Thompson, Sarah J., Colleen M. Handel und Lance B. Mcnew. „Autonomous acoustic recorders reveal complex patterns in avian detection probability“. Journal of Wildlife Management 81, Nr. 7 (07.06.2017): 1228–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.21285.

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Liu, Jia, Qunyu Xu, Min Su und Weishi Chen. „Activity Modeling and Characterization for Airport Bird Situation Awareness Using Avian Radar Datasets“. Aerospace 11, Nr. 6 (30.05.2024): 442. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/aerospace11060442.

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Birds in airport airspaces are critical threats to aviation safety. Avian radar systems are effective for long-range bird monitoring and hazard warning, but their functionalities are confined to a short-term temporal scale. Spatial–temporal activity modeling and characterization for birds are not studied comprehensively from historical radar datasets. This paper proposes a radar data analysis framework to characterize bird activities as a long-term functionality complement. Spatial domain modeling initializes data mining by extracting reference spots for data filtering. Bird activities are quantified in the temporal domain. Activity degrees are utilized for periodicity extraction with the daily segment random permutation strategy. Categorical probabilities are calculated to interpret bird activity periodicity characters. Historical radar datasets collected from an avian radar system are adopted for validation. The extracted activity periodicity trends for diurnal birds present prominent consistency with artificial observation records. Migratory bird periodicity trends present a good match with ornithology understandings. A preliminary experiment is presented to indicate the possibility of predicting bird activity levels, especially for migratory birds.
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Medina, Iliana, und Naomi E. Langmore. „Host density predicts the probability of parasitism by avian brood parasites“. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 374, Nr. 1769 (11.02.2019): 20180204. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0204.

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The spatial distribution of hosts can be a determining factor in the reproductive success of parasites. Highly aggregated hosts may offer more opportunities for reproduction but can have better defences than isolated hosts. Here we connect macro- and micro-evolutionary processes to understand the link between host density and parasitism, using avian brood parasites as a model system. We analyse data across more than 200 host species using phylogenetic comparative analyses and quantify parasitism rate and host reproductive success in relation to spatial distribution using field data collected on one host species over 6 years. Our comparative analysis reveals that hosts occurring at intermediate densities are more likely to be parasitized than colonial or widely dispersed hosts. Correspondingly, our intraspecific field data show that individuals living at moderate densities experience higher parasitism rates than individuals at either low or high densities. Moreover, we show for the first time that the effect of host density on host reproductive success varies according to the intensity of parasitism; hosts have greater reproductive success when living at high densities if parasitism rates are high, but fare better at low densities when parasitism rates are low. We provide the first evidence of the trade-off between host density and parasitism at both macro- and micro-evolutionary scales in brood parasites. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The coevolutionary biology of brood parasitism: from mechanism to pattern’.
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Henriques, Luiza Magalli Pinto, Sidnei Dantas, Lucyana Barros Santos, Anderson S. Bueno und Carlos A. Peres. „Avian extinctions induced by the oldest Amazonian hydropower mega dam: evidence from museum collections and sighting data spanning 172 years“. PeerJ 9 (18.08.2021): e11979. http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.11979.

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Hydroelectric dams represent an emergent threat to lowland tropical forest biodiversity. Despite the large number of operational, under-construction, and planned hydroelectric dams, their long-term effects on biodiversity loss are still poorly documented. Here, we investigate avian extinctions resulting from the Tucuruí Hydroelectric Reservoir (THR), the oldest Amazonian mega dam, which impounded the Tocantins River in 1984. Our avian inventory—based on several sampling methods (mist-netting, point-counts, boat census and qualitative surveys) during 280 days of fieldwork from 2005 to 2007—was combined with an exhaustive search of museum vouchers and digital online databases of citizen science from the lower Tocantins River to identify long-term trends in species persistence and extinction in the THR influence area. The regional avifauna was comprised of 479 species, 404 of which were recorded during our fieldwork. Based on recent and historical records spanning 172 years, we found evidence for likely extinctions at THR influence area for 53 (11.06%) species that have remained entirely unreported since 1984. We were further able to estimate extinction probabilities for 20 species; 15 species were considered to be extinct, including Psophia interjecta and Pyrilia vulturina that are red-listed by IUCN. Our study serves as a baseline for avifaunal monitoring in the THR influence area and shows that degree of habitat specialization is a key factor in determining species extinctions caused by nonrandom habitat loss from either inundation or deforestation. Avian species extinctions will most likely continue across the area affected by the reservoir as a direct impact of alluvial forest loss and ongoing habitat degradation of upland forests.
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Royle, J. Andrew, und Christopher K. Wikle. „Efficient statistical mapping of avian count data“. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 12, Nr. 2 (Juni 2005): 225–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10651-005-1043-4.

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13

Mindlin, Gabriel B. „Avian vocal production beyond low dimensional models“. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment 2017, Nr. 2 (16.02.2017): 024005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-5468/aa54d8.

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14

Li, Xueying, Bing Xu und Jeffrey Shaman. „Pathobiological features favouring the intercontinental dissemination of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus“. Royal Society Open Science 6, Nr. 5 (Mai 2019): 190276. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.190276.

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Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are a continued threat to global health and economy. Unlike other highly pathogenic AIVs, novel H5N8 disseminated very quickly from Korea to other areas in Asia, Europe and even North America following its first outbreak in 2014. However, the pathobiological features of the virus that favoured its global translocation remain unknown. In this study, we used a compartmental model to examine the avian epidemiological characteristics that would support the geographical spread of influenza by bird migration, and to provide recommendations for AIV surveillance in wild bird populations. We simulated virus transmission and translocation in a migratory bird population while varying four system properties: (i) contact transmission rate; (ii) infection recovery rate; (iii) mortality rate induced by infection; and (iv) migratory recovery rate. Using these simulations, we then calculated extinction and translocation probabilities for influenza during spring migration as a function of the altered properties. We find that lower infection recovery rates increase the likelihood of AIV translocation in migratory bird populations. In addition, lower mortality rates or migration recovery rates also favour translocation. Our results identify pathobiological features supporting AIV intercontinental dissemination risk and suggest that characteristic differences exist among H5N8 and other AIV subtypes that have not translocated as rapidly (e.g. H5N6 and H5N1).
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Vera Alvarez, Maria D., Christopher Fernandez und Michael V. Cove. „Assessing the role of habitat and species interactions in the population decline and detection bias of Neotropical leaf litter frogs in and around La Selva Biological Station, Costa Rica“. Neotropical Biology and Conservation 14, Nr. 2 (15.07.2019): 143–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.3897/neotropical.14.e37526.

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Worldwide, amphibian populations have been declining rapidly. This decline can be attributed to many factors including climate change, pesticide exposure, and emerging infectious diseases, among other important factors, but few studies have examined the influence of species interactions. In this study, we examined how habitat factors and co-occurring avian and mammalian species, as well as humans, exert direct and indirect effects on Neotropical amphibian population dynamics. We further examined how these habitat and species interactions could affect our ability to reliably detect amphibian presence to robustly estimate population trends. We conducted amphibian visual encounter surveys at 26 randomly selected sites in the La Selva Biological Station, in northeastern Costa Rica, as well as 26 sites across five additional forest fragments in the region. Furthermore, we used camera traps to collect data on avian and mammalian communities and human visitation at those amphibian survey plots. From these data, we were able to estimate species occupancy probabilities for leaf litter frogs across sites and their relationships to habitat and interspecific species interaction covariates. We also conducted an experiment with plastic model frogs to estimate detection probabilities when a population is known to occur at a site with certainty. Our results suggested that strawberry poison dart frog (Oophagapumilio) occupancy was positively related to secondary forest and their detection was negatively related to increasing air temperatures at the times of the surveys. Leaf litter frog occupancy was negatively related to core La Selva sites and human detections at sites, yet their detection was positively related to human trail presence, which might be related to reduced leaf litter cover due to heavy trampling. Our experimental surveys suggested that Neotropical leaf litter frog communities are difficult to detect when present and future studies should explicitly account for this detection bias to effectively monitor population trends.
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Thomson, David, Arie van Noordwijk und Ward Hagemeijer. „Estimating avian dispersal distances from data on ringed birds“. Journal of Applied Statistics 30, Nr. 9 (November 2003): 1003–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0266476032000076128.

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Ndiaye, A., EHD Niang, BF Faye, S. Fall, M. Seck, SA Touré, K. Sarr et al. „C30: Facteurs pronostiques initiaux et résultats du traitement des lymphomes non hodgkiniens à Dakar“. African Journal of Oncology 2, Nr. 1 Supplement (01.03.2022): S13—S14. http://dx.doi.org/10.54266/ajo.2.1s.c30.ub2y313ajz.

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INTRODUCTION : La prise en charge des lymphomes malins non hodgkiniens au Sénégal se heurte au manque d’outils d’exploration et à l’inaccessibilité des anticancéreux. L’objectif de ce travail était d’identifier les facteurs pronostiques au diagnostic et d’évaluer leur évolution sous traitement. MATERIELS ET METHODES : Nous avions réalisé une étude prospective du 1er Janvier 2018 au 3 Juillet 2020 portant sur les cas de lymphome non hodgkinien. Les facteurs pronostiques initiaux étaient évalués selon l’index pronostique international pour le lymphome B diffus à grande cellules et les lymphomes T, le Mantle Cell Lymphoma International Prognostic Index et le Follicular lymphoma International Index respectivement pour le lymphome du manteau et les lymphomes à petites cellules. Les lymphomes B diffus à grandes cellules, ceux du manteau et ceux à petites cellules étaient traitée selon le protocole associant cyclophosphamide, doxorubicine, oncovin et prednisone (CHOP) associé ou non au rituximab, les lymphomes T bénéficiaient d’un protocole CHOP. L’évolution a été évaluée sur la réponse au traitement et la survie. L’analyse des données a été effectuée avec le logiciel SPSS (Statistical Package for Sciences Socials) version 18. La courbe de survie de Kaplan Meier a été utilisée pour évaluer la probabilité de survie des patients. La comparaison des probabilités de survie entre les différents groupes était faite à partir du test Log-rank avec un seuil de significativité p<0,05. RESULTATS : Nous avions inclus 40 patients dont 30 hommes et 10 femmes avec un sex-ratio de trois. L’âge moyen des patients était de 43,38 ans (écart type=15,87). Le délai moyen entre le début des symptômes et la confirmation diagnostique était de 7,4 mois. La durée totale du suivi de la cohorte était de 30,5 patient-années. Les lymphomes B représentaient 57,5% des cas, les formes T 27,5% des cas, la forme immuno-phénotypique n’a pas été déterminée dans 15% des cas. Vingt-cinq patients (67,6% des cas) étaient à un stade avancé au diagnostic. Le pronostic initial était défavorable dans 29,7% des cas, tout type histologique confondu. La survie globale à 30 mois était de 70%, celle du lymphome à petites cellules était de 100%, pour le DLBCL et le lymphome à cellules T elle était respectivement de 85% et 55%. Il n'y avait pas de différence de survie selon le sexe, la localité, la profession, le délai avant la consultation ou le diagnostic (p supérieur à 0,5). CONCLUSION : Nos patients étaient reçus à un stade avancé de leur maladie au diagnostic. La survie globale à 30 mois était courte. Un diagnostic précoce et une meilleure accessibilité à l’immuno-chimiothérapie pourraient améliorer ces résultats.
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King, D. Tommy, Guiming Wang und Frederick L. Cunningham. „Large- and Small-Scale Climate Influences Spring Migration Departure Probability of American White Pelicans“. Diversity 14, Nr. 6 (20.06.2022): 500. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/d14060500.

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Endogenous (e.g., age and sex) and exogenous (e.g., climate and resource availability) factors influence avian migration phenology. However, little is known regarding the migration ecology of birds at the non-breeding grounds, including the American white pelican (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos). We used Global Positioning System transmitters to track the movements and migration of 51 pelicans from 2002 to 2012. We used the Kaplan–Meier model to estimate pelican spring migration probabilities to quantify partial migration with 94 spring migration events and used the Cox proportional hazards model to evaluate the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAOI), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and spring daily precipitation on the propensity of pelican spring migration departures. Increases in the NAOI and SOI enhanced the propensity of pelican spring departure. The propensity of spring departure was also positively related to daily precipitation. Male pelicans have greater spring migration probabilities than female pelicans. Spring migration departure probabilities of adult pelicans are greater than those of immature pelicans. Therefore, both large-scale and local climatic conditions affect pelican spring departure probabilities. Advanced migratory phenology of pelicans caused by climate changes with warming temperature and increased precipitation may result in the mismatch of pelican spring arrival with food resource availability of breeding grounds and subsequent pelican population declines.
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THINH, VU TIEN, PAUL F. DOHERTY und KATHRYN P. HUYVAERT. „Avian conservation value of pine plantation forests in northern Vietnam“. Bird Conservation International 22, Nr. 2 (26.09.2011): 193–204. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0959270911000293.

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SummaryDecline of native forest cover is a worldwide concern. Recently, overall forest cover in Vietnam has increased, but most of the increase has been attributed to plantations of non-native trees. The conservation value of these plantations for birds is unknown. We compared avian species richness in pine plantations to that in second-growth and mature native forests in Tam Dao National Park, Vietnam. Bird species were classified into two categories: forest specialists or forest generalists. To account for strong heterogeneity in detection probabilities, the number of species in each category was estimated using the Pledger-Huggins estimator. We estimated total species richness and number of forest specialist species to be highest in mature forest (191; 95% CI = 96, 287, and 88; 95% CI = 47, 129 respectively), lower in second-growth forest (158; 95% CI = 87, 245 and 58; 95% CI = 18, 98 respectively), and lowest in pine plantation (106; 95% CI = 52, 158 and 49; 95% CI = 2, 97 respectively). The estimated number of forest generalist species was similar between mature forest and second-growth forest (103; 95% CI = 17, 189 and 100; 95% CI = 42, 158, respectively) and least in pine plantation (57; 95% CI = 31, 82). The maintenance of native forest types should receive priority for conservation in Vietnam and pine plantations should be managed to provide additional structure in the hope of increasing species richness.
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Karanth, Krithi K., James D. Nichols, John R. Sauer, James E. Hines und Charles B. Yackulic. „Latitudinal gradients in North American avian species richness, turnover rates and extinction probabilities“. Ecography 37, Nr. 7 (19.12.2013): 626–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2013.00367.x.

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Stanley, Thomas R. „Estimating Stage-Specific Daily Survival Probabilities of Nests When Nest age is Unknown“. Auk 121, Nr. 1 (01.01.2004): 134–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/auk/121.1.134.

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Abstract Estimation of daily survival probabilities of nests is common in studies of avian populations. Since the introduction of Mayfield's (1961, 1975) estimator, numerous models have been developed to relax Mayfield's assumptions and account for biologically important sources of variation. Stanley (2000) presented a model for estimating stage-specific (e.g. incubation stage, nestling stage) daily survival probabilities of nests that conditions on “nest type” and requires that nests be aged when they are found. Because aging nests typically requires handling the eggs, there may be situations where nests can not or should not be aged and the Stanley (2000) model will be inapplicable. Here, I present a model for estimating stage-specific daily survival probabilities that conditions on nest stage for active nests, thereby obviating the need to age nests when they are found. Specifically, I derive the maximumlikelihood function for the model, evaluate the model's performance using Monte Carlo simulations, and provide software for estimating parameters (along with an example). For sample sizes as low as 50 nests, bias was small and confidence interval coverage was close to the nominal rate, especially when a reduced-parameter model was used for estimation.
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Mazorra-Alonso, Mónica, Manuel Martín-Vivaldi, Juan Manuel Peralta-Sánchez und Juan José Soler. „Autoclaving Nest-Material Remains Influences the Probability of Ectoparasitism of Nestling Hoopoes (Upupa epops)“. Biology 9, Nr. 10 (23.09.2020): 306. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/biology9100306.

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Nest bacterial environment influences avian reproduction directly because it might include pathogenic- or antibiotic-producing bacteria or indirectly because predators or ectoparasites can use volatile compounds from nest bacterial metabolism to detect nests of their avian hosts. Hoopoes (Upupa epops) do not build nests. They rather reuse holes or nest-boxes that contain remains of nest-materials from previous breeding seasons. Interestingly, it has been recently described that the nest’s bacterial environment partly affects the uropygial gland microbiota of hoopoe females and eggshells. Blood-sucking ectoparasites use chemical cues to find host nests, so we experimentally tested the hypothetical effects of microorganisms inhabiting nest-material remains before reproduction regarding the intensity of ectoparasitism suffered by 8-day-old nestling hoopoes. In accordance with the hypothesis, nestlings hatched in nest-boxes with autoclaved nest-material remains from the previous reproductive seasons suffered less from ectoparasites than those hatched in the control nest-boxes with nonautoclaved nest-material. Moreover, we found a positive association between the bacterial density of nest-material during the nestling phase and ectoparasitism intensity that was only apparent in nest-boxes with autoclaved nest-material. However, contrary to our expectations, nest bacterial load was positively associated with fledgling success. These results suggest a link between the community of microorganisms of nest-material remains and the intensity of ectoparasitism, and, on the other hand, that the nest bacterial environment during reproduction is related to fledging success. Here, we discuss possible mechanisms explaining the experimental and correlative results, including the possibility that the experimental autoclaving of nest material affected the microbiota of females and nestlings’ secretion and/or nest volatiles that attracted ectoparasites, therefore indirectly affecting both the nest bacterial environment at the nestling stage and fledging success.
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BUENESTADO, F., C. GORTÁZAR, J. MILLÁN, U. HÖFLE und R. VILLAFUERTE. „Descriptive study of an avian pox outbreak in wild red-legged partridges (Alectoris rufa) in Spain“. Epidemiology and Infection 132, Nr. 2 (26.02.2004): 369–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s095026880300178x.

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This study describes the dynamics and epidemiology of an outbreak of avian pox in free-living, red-legged partridges (Alectoris rufa) in southern Spain. Between March 2000 and January 2001, 115 free-living, red-legged partridges (70 juveniles, 45 adults) were captured and radio-tagged. This, together with the necropsy of 44 carcasses (10 juveniles, 34 adults) found in the study area, and the inspection of 108 shot birds (74 juveniles, 34 adults) after a hunting drive in October, permitted a close monitoring of the course of the disease. Forty-one per cent of radio-tagged juveniles but none of 45 radio-tagged adults showed pox-like lesions at the time of capture, recapture, or necropsy. At least 40% of the juveniles that survived into the hunting season, but only 2·9% of the adults inspected at the same time, showed lesions suggestive of infection with avian poxvirus. The survival of juveniles during the peak of the outbreak was much lower than that of the adults, but we found no significant differences between the survival probabilities of juvenile partridges with and without pox-like lesions. Nevertheless, some birds may have developed lesions after their capture. The occurrence and course of the disease in a managed area with intense predator control underlines the need for studies on the combined influence of diseases and predators on population dynamics. Also the need for early detection of diseases for the management of game species is emphasized.
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Brommer, Jon E., Peter Korsten, Karen M. Bouwman, Mathew L. Berg und Jan Komdeur. „Is extrapair mating random? On the probability distribution of extrapair young in avian broods“. Behavioral Ecology 18, Nr. 5 (13.07.2007): 895–904. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/beheco/arm049.

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Simons, Theodore R., Mathew W. Alldredge, Kenneth H. Pollock und John M. Wettroth. „Experimental Analysis of The Auditory Detection Process on Avian Point Counts“. Auk 124, Nr. 3 (01.07.2007): 986–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/auk/124.3.986.

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AbstractWe have developed a system for simulating the conditions of avian surveys in which birds are identified by sound. The system uses a laptop computer to control a set of amplified MP3 players placed at known locations around a survey point. The system can realistically simulate a known population of songbirds under a range of factors that affect detection probabilities. The goals of our research are to describe the sources and range of variability affecting point-count estimates and to find applications of sampling theory and methodologies that produce practical improvements in the quality of bird-census data. Initial experiments in an open field showed that, on average, observers tend to undercount birds on unlimited-radius counts, though the proportion of birds counted by individual observers ranged from 81% to 132% of the actual total. In contrast to the unlimited-radius counts, when data were truncated at a 50-m radius around the point, observers overestimated the total population by 17% to 122%. Results also illustrate how detection distances decline and identification errors increase with increasing levels of ambient noise. Overall, the proportion of birds heard by observers decreased by 28 ± 4.7% under breezy conditions, 41 ± 5.2% with the presence of additional background birds, and 42 ± 3.4% with the addition of 10 dB of white noise. These findings illustrate some of the inherent difficulties in interpreting avian abundance estimates based on auditory detections, and why estimates that do not account for variations in detection probability will not withstand critical scrutiny.Análisis Experimentales del Proceso de Detección Auditiva en Puntos de Conteo de Aves
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Casey, Richard M., und Abbot S. Gaunt. „Theoretical models of the avian syrinx“. Journal of Theoretical Biology 116, Nr. 1 (September 1985): 45–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0022-5193(85)80130-2.

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Alldredge, Mathew W., Kenneth H. Pollock und Theodore R. Simons. „Estimating Detection Probabilities From Multiple-Observer Point Counts“. Auk 123, Nr. 4 (01.10.2006): 1172–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/auk/123.4.1172.

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Abstract Point counts are commonly used to obtain indices of bird population abundance. We present an independent-observer point-count method, a generalization of the dependent-observer approach, based on closed-population capture- recapture methods. The approach can incorporate individual covariates, such as detection distance, to account for individual differences in detection probabilities associated with measurable sources of variation. We demonstrate a negative bias in two-observer estimates by comparing abundance estimates from two- and four- observer point counts. Models incorporating data from four independent observers were capable of accounting for this bias. Modeling individual bird differences in detection probabilities produced abundance estimates 15–21% higher than models that did not account for individual differences, in four out of five data sets analyzed. Although independent-observer methods are expensive and impractical for large- scale applications, we believe they can provide important insights into the sources and degree of perception bias (i.e., probability of detecting an individual, given that it is available for detection) in avian point-count estimates. Therefore, they may be useful in a two-stage sampling framework to calibrate larger surveys based on single-observer estimates. Estimación de Probabilidades de Detección a Partir de Conteos en Puntos Hechos por Varios Observadores
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Mitchell, Brian R., und Therese Donovan. „Mob Mentality: Effect of a Mobbing Playback on Avian Detection Probabilities during Point Count Surveys“. Open Ornithology Journal 1, Nr. 1 (25.03.2008): 8–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.2174/1874453200801010008.

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Hostetter, Nathan J., Allen F. Evans, Bradley M. Cramer, Ken Collis, Donald E. Lyons und Daniel D. Roby. „Quantifying Avian Predation on Fish Populations: Integrating Predator-Specific Deposition Probabilities in Tag Recovery Studies“. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 144, Nr. 2 (04.03.2015): 410–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00028487.2014.988882.

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Franklin, Alan B., David R. Anderson und Kenneth P. Burnham. „Estimation of long-term trends and variation in avian survival probabilities using random effects models“. Journal of Applied Statistics 29, Nr. 1-4 (Januar 2002): 267–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02664760120108719.

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31

Ypma, R. J. F., A. M. A. Bataille, A. Stegeman, G. Koch, J. Wallinga und W. M. van Ballegooijen. „Unravelling transmission trees of infectious diseases by combining genetic and epidemiological data“. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 279, Nr. 1728 (06.07.2011): 444–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2011.0913.

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Knowledge on the transmission tree of an epidemic can provide valuable insights into disease dynamics. The transmission tree can be reconstructed by analysing either detailed epidemiological data (e.g. contact tracing) or, if sufficient genetic diversity accumulates over the course of the epidemic, genetic data of the pathogen. We present a likelihood-based framework to integrate these two data types, estimating probabilities of infection by taking weighted averages over the set of possible transmission trees. We test the approach by applying it to temporal, geographical and genetic data on the 241 poultry farms infected in an epidemic of avian influenza A (H7N7) in The Netherlands in 2003. We show that the combined approach estimates the transmission tree with higher correctness and resolution than analyses based on genetic or epidemiological data alone. Furthermore, the estimated tree reveals the relative infectiousness of farms of different types and sizes.
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Johnson, Douglas H. „Least Squares Estimation of Avian Molt Rates“. Biometrics 45, Nr. 2 (Juni 1989): 657. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2531507.

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Liu, Sanhong, Shigui Ruan und Xinan Zhang. „Nonlinear dynamics of avian influenza epidemic models“. Mathematical Biosciences 283 (Januar 2017): 118–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2016.11.014.

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Yang, Liu, Meng Fan, Youming Wang, Xiangdong Sun und Huaiping Zhu. „Effect of avian influenza scare on transmission of zoonotic avian influenza: A case study of influenza A (H7N9)“. Mathematical Biosciences 367 (Januar 2024): 109125. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2023.109125.

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WAGNER, G. „The developmental evolution of avian digit homology: An update“. Theory in Biosciences 124, Nr. 2 (10.11.2005): 165–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.thbio.2005.07.002.

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Maclean, Ilya M. D., Mark Hassall, Rosalind Boar und Oliver Nasirwa. „Effects of habitat degradation on avian guilds in East African papyrus Cyperus papyrus swamps“. Bird Conservation International 13, Nr. 4 (20.11.2003): 283–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0959270903003216.

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The density and species richness of bird communities in disturbed and undisturbed stands of papyrus Cyperus papyrus were compared. Point counts, corrected for different probabilities of detection in different swamps, suggested that the species richness of bird communities in stands of papyrus disturbed by burning, grazing or pollution was higher than in nearby stands that were not disturbed. However, there were fewer species and individuals of highly specialized birds or species characteristic of papyrus, in disturbed stands than in undisturbed swamps. At < 1 ha-1, the density of Papyrus Gonolek Laniarius mufumbiri in Ugandan swamps was, for example, significantly lower in polluted and burnt sites than in undisturbed papyrus where up to 13 ha-1 were recorded in the centre of swamps. White-winged Swamp Warbler Bradypterus carpalis was only recorded in undisturbed papyrus. In the papyrus that fringes Lake Naivasha in Kenya, outside the geographical range of species restricted to papyrus, disturbance in the form of grazing selects against species classified as swamp-reliant. Species classified as generalist users of papyrus were much less sensitive to disturbance than specialists. The density of swamp specialists was also lower near the edge of swamps, where total species richness was higher. These results are discussed in relation to conservation management of papyrus swamps in East Africa.
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Zepeda, C., und M. D. Salman. „ASSESSING THE PROBABILITY OF THE PRESENCE OF LOW PATHOGENICITY AVIAN INFLUENZA VIRUS IN EXPORTED CHICKEN MEAT“. Avian Diseases Digest 2, s1 (März 2007): e34-e34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1637/1933-5334(2007)2[e34:atpotp]2.0.co;2.

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Zepeda, C., und M. D. Salman. „Assessing the Probability of the Presence of Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus in Exported Chicken Meat“. Avian Diseases 51, s1 (März 2007): 344–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1637/7567-033106r.1.

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39

Ferrer, E. S., V. García-Navas, J. J. Sanz und J. Ortego. „Individual genetic diversity and probability of infection by avian malaria parasites in blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus )“. Journal of Evolutionary Biology 27, Nr. 11 (28.09.2014): 2468–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jeb.12489.

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40

Wagner, Günter P. „The developmental evolution of avian digit homology: An update“. Theory in Biosciences 124, Nr. 2 (November 2005): 165–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf02814482.

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41

Zhang, Xinhong, Zhenfeng Shi und Yuanyuan Wang. „Dynamics of a stochastic avian–human influenza epidemic model with mutation“. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 534 (November 2019): 121940. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.121940.

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42

Jonkers, A. R. T., K. J. Sharkey und R. M. Christley. „Preventable H5N1 avian influenza epidemics in the British poultry industry network exhibit characteristic scales“. Journal of The Royal Society Interface 7, Nr. 45 (14.10.2009): 695–701. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2009.0304.

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Epidemics are frequently simulated on redundantly wired contact networks, which have many more links between sites than are minimally required to connect all. Consequently, the modelled pathogen can travel numerous alternative routes, complicating effective containment strategies. These networks have moreover been found to exhibit ‘scale-free’ properties and percolation, suggesting resilience to damage. However, realistic H5N1 avian influenza transmission probabilities and containment strategies, here modelled on the British poultry industry network, show that infection dynamics can additionally express characteristic scales. These system-preferred scales constitute small areas within an observed power law distribution that exhibit a lesser slope than the power law itself, indicating a slightly increased relative likelihood. These characteristic scales are here produced by a network-pervading intranet of so-called hotspot sites that propagate large epidemics below the percolation threshold. This intranet is, however, extremely vulnerable; targeted inoculation of a mere 3–6% (depending on incorporated biosecurity measures) of the British poultry industry network prevents large and moderate H5N1 outbreaks completely, offering an order of magnitude improvement over previously advocated strategies affecting the most highly connected ‘hub’ sites. In other words, hotspots and hubs are separate functional entities that do not necessarily coincide, and hotspots can make more effective inoculation targets. Given the ubiquity and relevance of networks (epidemics, Internet, power grids, protein interaction), recognition of this spreading regime elsewhere would suggest a similar disproportionate sensitivity to such surgical interventions.
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Webster, Raymond A., Kenneth H. Pollock und Theodore R. Simons. „Bayesian spatial modeling of data from avian point count surveys“. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics 13, Nr. 2 (Juni 2008): 121–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1198/108571108x311563.

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Wan, Xiu-Feng, Guorong Chen, Feng Luo, Michael Emch und Ruben Donis. „A quantitative genotype algorithm reflecting H5N1 Avian influenza niches“. Bioinformatics 23, Nr. 18 (10.07.2007): 2368–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/bioinformatics/btm354.

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45

Weber, Thomas P., und Alasdair I. Houston. „A General Model for Time-minimising Avian Migration“. Journal of Theoretical Biology 185, Nr. 4 (April 1997): 447–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/jtbi.1996.0329.

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46

Amundson, Courtney L., J. Andrew Royle und Colleen M. Handel. „A hierarchical model combining distance sampling and time removal to estimate detection probability during avian point counts“. Auk 131, Nr. 4 (Oktober 2014): 476–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1642/auk-14-11.1.

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47

Chong, Nyuk Sian, Jean Michel Tchuenche und Robert J. Smith. „A mathematical model of avian influenza with half-saturated incidence“. Theory in Biosciences 133, Nr. 1 (04.06.2013): 23–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12064-013-0183-6.

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48

Islam, Kamrul, Md Murshidul Ahsan, Shovon Chakma, Kinley Penjor, Mukti Barua, Mohammad Shah Jalal, Abdullah Al Momen Sabuj, Zakia Tabassum Ani und Abdul Ahad. „An assessment on potential risk pathways for the incursion of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in backyard poultry farm in Bangladesh“. October-2020 13, Nr. 10 (2020): 2104–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.14202/vetworld.2020.2104-2111.

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Background and Aim: Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is a deadly virus of zoonotic potential. The study mainly aims to determine the risk pathways (RPs) for the probable incursion of HPAI virus (HPAIV) in backyard poultry in Bangladesh. Materials and Methods: The study involves expert elicitation technique. The concept map determines the possible RPs. The map consists of 16 concepts, each with nodes from which probabilities of an event originates. These probabilities are described by qualitative descriptors ranging from negligible to high. Risk assessment has been performed using the subjective risk assessment tool. Results: The tool demonstrates positive correlation among groups of experts in the level of agreement by scoring RP; however, the level of agreement varies from 71% to 93% among group of experts. The median risk score of viral incursion through the "Exposure of backyard poultry with farm poultry in the trading market" was 11 and ranked as top, followed by "Contaminated live bird market environment" and "Sharing common scavenging space with migratory birds" (median risk score, 10.5; rank, 2), and "Scavenging of infected slaughtered poultry remnants by backyard poultry" (median risk score, 5.3; rank, 3) when no control options were applied along with the RPs. After applying or considering control option along with contaminated live bird market environment, the median risk score was reduced to 5.0. Applying a specific control option along with each RP reduced estimated median risk scores for HPAIV incursions. Conclusion: This study provides an insight into the incursion risks of HPAIV through various RPs in backyard poultry in Bangladesh.
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Dellicour, Simon, Philippe Lemey, Jean Artois, Tommy T. Lam, Alice Fusaro, Isabella Monne, Giovanni Cattoli et al. „Incorporating heterogeneous sampling probabilities in continuous phylogeographic inference — Application to H5N1 spread in the Mekong region“. Bioinformatics 36, Nr. 7 (02.12.2019): 2098–104. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/bioinformatics/btz882.

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Abstract Motivation The potentially low precision associated with the geographic origin of sampled sequences represents an important limitation for spatially explicit (i.e. continuous) phylogeographic inference of fast-evolving pathogens such as RNA viruses. A substantial proportion of publicly available sequences is geo-referenced at broad spatial scale such as the administrative unit of origin, rather than more precise locations (e.g. geographic coordinates). Most frequently, such sequences are either discarded prior to continuous phylogeographic inference or arbitrarily assigned to the geographic coordinates of the centroid of their administrative area of origin for lack of a better alternative. Results We here implement and describe a new approach that allows to incorporate heterogeneous prior sampling probabilities over a geographic area. External data, such as outbreak locations, are used to specify these prior sampling probabilities over a collection of sub-polygons. We apply this new method to the analysis of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 clade data in the Mekong region. Our method allows to properly include, in continuous phylogeographic analyses, H5N1 sequences that are only associated with large administrative areas of origin and assign them with more accurate locations. Finally, we use continuous phylogeographic reconstructions to analyse the dispersal dynamics of different H5N1 clades and investigate the impact of environmental factors on lineage dispersal velocities. Availability and implementation Our new method allowing heterogeneous sampling priors for continuous phylogeographic inference is implemented in the open-source multi-platform software package BEAST 1.10. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
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Saifitdinova, Alsu F. „Organisation of non-coding elements in avian genomes“. Integrative Physiology 3, Nr. 2 (2022): 185–203. http://dx.doi.org/10.33910/2687-1270-2022-3-2-185-203.

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