Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „April effect“

This study has applied a geographical perspective with the ambition of evaluating the presence of the Sell in May effect, January effect and monthly anomalies in the Nordic stock markets. In extension the study examines the relationship between corporate size and the returns of calendar anomalies. The study has conducted statistical tests based on Newey-West regressions as well as a Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model. The findings suggest that the Sell in May and January are present in the Nordic region and partially abide by theory and results of previous research. The findings suggest that the Sell in May and January effect are independent, however, tendencies when the January effect has a considerable influence on the Sell in May effect are also evident. Additionally, the “April Effect” is an unexpected outlier with positive excess returns that was identified through this study.

Foliar fertilizers are not widely used for cotton production in the low desert, and data about their effects on cotton production under these conditions is therefore limited. This study documented the effects of Calcium Metalosate7 and Megafol, each applied at the rate of 1 qt/acre to DPL555BR cotton. Treatments were applied on July 7, and plants had been growing vigorously just prior to application. Plots were approximately 0.75 acres in size with four replications. Plant mapping data from late July indicated that non-treated cotton had numerically higher retention rates at each of the first three fruiting positions mapped in addition to slightly more total nodes and a greater number of reproductive nodes in part due to first fruiting structure being retained lower on the plant (node 6.75) than treated cotton (node 7.95 for Megafol, node 8.4 for Calcium Metalosate7). Tractor passage through treated plots may have also knocked off developing squares however. No statistical differences were noted for lbs. of lint/acre, although treated cotton did have slightly higher yields than the untreated check (1,162 lbs/acre) and treatments were almost identical (1,203 lbs./acre for Megafol; 1,198 lbs./acre for Calcium Metalosate7). Fiber lengths and strengths were significantly different by treatment, with shortest and weakest fibers resulting from cotton treated with Megafol. Cotton from Calcium Metalosate7 treatments were significantly longer and stronger than lint from Megafol treated cotton plots, but lint from untreated cotton plots was significantly longer and stronger than either treatment (36.6 staple, 31.0 g/tex). The reasons for these differences are unclear. It is difficult to correlate the slight yield increases noted with treatments in early July, especially in light of lower retention rates noted with treatments from plant mapping data in late July and the large amount of lint production that occurred in late 2003 due to summer heat. Multiple differences were noted for treatments in regards to lint quality, however, indicating treatments did affect cotton production. Size of bolls and cotton lint from these early summer bolls was not obtained but may have been an overlooked aspect of this study.

This thesis aims to analyze the re-emergence of the Armenian question as an aspect of Armenian nationalism and its effects on Turkey between the years 1960 and 1990. The Armenian question is a very controversial political issue with its multi-dimensional characteristic. The Armenian question emerged with the Ottoman Armenians&rsquo
autonomy demands as an extension of Armenian nationalism in the nineteenth century. With the interest of the imperialist states, the Armenian question became an international problem especially after the Ottoman-Russian War of 1877-1878. Although the Armenian question reached its peak in World War I, it dropped from the international agenda by the Peace Treaty of Lausanne in 1923. After World War II, the Armenian question was transformed into an international issue once again by Joseph Stalin the leader of the USSR that was used as a political trump against Turkey in the Cold War period. Especially, the date April 24, 1965 became a remarkable turning point in the re-emergence of the Armenian question as an aspect of Armenian nationalism. Since 1965, the Armenian Diaspora has used the Armenian question to materialize dream of the &ldquo
Greater Armenia.&rdquo
Today, the Armenian question has affected Turkey&rsquo
s bilateral and multilateral relations with other countries especially with the Republic of Armenia and the United States of America. By this thesis, these whole facts will be analyzed to expose the historical background of the re-emergence of the Armenian question as an aspect of Armenian nationalism, and its effects on Turkey between the years 1960-1990, and to contribute to the academic literature.

Abstract This chapter is essentially a postscript written as the effects of COVID-19 changed, so dramatically, the nature of garden operation and visitation. Much of the impact is drawn from the American Public Gardens Association (APGA) surveys of its member gardens in March (the immediate effects) and April 2020 (the results of the closure on revenue, staffing, and programs). In the final paragraphs the measures being taken to permit a (partial) reopening and the effects of the partial opening are examined. A case study is presented of Longwood Gardens, Kennett Square, Pennsylvania, USA, after COVID-19.

Abstract This chapter is essentially a postscript written as the effects of COVID-19 changed, so dramatically, the nature of garden operation and visitation. Much of the impact is drawn from the American Public Gardens Association (APGA) surveys of its member gardens in March (the immediate effects) and April 2020 (the results of the closure on revenue, staffing, and programs). In the final paragraphs the measures being taken to permit a (partial) reopening and the effects of the partial opening are examined. A case study is presented of Longwood Gardens, Kennett Square, Pennsylvania, USA, after COVID-19.

AbstractThis chapter was aimed at evaluating the responses of livestock to fluctuations in climate and the debilitating effect of livestock production on the environment. Survey of livestock stakeholders (farmers, researchers, marketers, and traders) was carried out in Sahel, Sudan, Northern Guinea Savannah, Southern Guinea Savannah, and Derived Savannah zones of Nigeria. In total, 362 respondents were interviewed between April and June 2020. The distribution of the respondents was 22 in Sahel, 57 in Sudan, 61 in Northern Guinea Savannah, 80 in Southern Guinea Savannah, and 106 in Derived Savannah. The respondents were purposively interviewed based on their engagement in livestock production, research or trading activities. Thirty-eight years’ climate data from 1982 to 2019 were obtained from Nigerian Metrological Agency, Abuja. Ilela, Kiyawa, and Sabon Gari were chosen to represent Sahel, Sudan, and Northern Guinea Savannah zone of Nigeria, respectively. The data contained precipitation, relative humidity, and minimum and maximum temperature. The temperature humidity index (THI) was calculated using the formula: THI = 0.8*T + RH*(T-14.4) + 46.4, where T = ambient or dry-bulb temperature in °C and RH=relative humidity expressed as a proportion. Three Machine Learning model were built to predict the monthly minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and relative humidity respectively based on information from the previous 11 months. The methodology adopted is to treat each prediction task as a supervised learning problem. This involves transforming the time series data into a feature-target dataset using autoregressive (AR) technique. The major component of the activities of livestock that was known to cause injury to the environment as depicted in this chapter was the production of greenhouse gases. From the respondents in this chapter, some adaptive measures were stated as having controlling and mitigating effect at reducing the effect of activities of livestock on the climate and the environment. The environment and climate on the other side of the dual pathway is also known to induce stress on livestock. The concept of crop-livestock integration system is advocated in this chapter as beneficial to livestock and environment in the short and long run. Based on the predictive model developed for temperature and relative humidity in a sample location (Ilela) using Machine Learning in this chapter, there is need for development of a web or standalone application that will be useable by Nigerian farmers, meteorological agencies, and extension organizations as climate fluctuation early warning system. Development of this predictive model needs to be expanded and made functional.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.